每经AI快讯，12月19日，商业航天概念延续强势，广联航空、瑞华泰、优机股份涨超10%，国机精工、 航天智装、通宇通讯、西部材料涨超7%。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened higher on December 19, with all three major indices rising [1] - In the market, computing hardware rebounded, with CPO and storage indices leading the gains; sectors like coal, precious metals, and shipping weakened [2] Sector Performance - The smart driving concept was notably active, with Zhejiang Shibao (002703) achieving a four-day consecutive limit-up, supported by over 220,000 buy orders [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first batch of L3-level conditional autonomous driving vehicle approvals, marking a significant step towards commercial application [4] - Zhejiang Shibao confirmed its long-term partnerships with various traditional and new car manufacturers, indicating that its products are suitable for L3 and above autonomous driving [5] Emerging Concepts - The commercial aerospace sector showed strength, with Huati Technology achieving a two-day consecutive limit-up, alongside other companies like Xinke Mobile and Guanglian Aviation [6] - The electrolytic manganese concept experienced fluctuations, with Red Star Development hitting the limit-up, driven by rising prices that reached a three-year high [9] - The controllable nuclear fusion concept saw gains, with companies like Wangzi New Materials and Changfu Co., Ltd. achieving significant increases [10] - The innovative drug sector rebounded, with Yifang Bio rising nearly 10%, alongside other pharmaceutical companies [11]

2025 年 12 月 19 日 期指：宽松预期加持，偏强震荡 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4552.8 | ↓0.59 | | 3821 | | | | | | IF2512 | 4550.4 | ↓0.73 | -2.39 | 732.2 | 53558 | ↓31440 | 37690 | ↓24245 | | IF2601 | 4531.2 | ↓0.73 | -21.59 | 413.4 | 30353 | ↑1909 | 54550 | ↑8789 | | IF2603 | 4505 | ↓0.68 | -47.79 | 678.4 | 50112 | ↓11081 | 150187 | ↑6425 | | IF2606 | 4455.4 | ↓0.70 | -97.39 | 160.4 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Economic Indicators - In the first 11 months of 2025, national tax revenue reached 16.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with the growth rate slightly improving by 0.1 percentage points compared to the first 10 months [2] - Major tax categories showed stable growth, with VAT and domestic consumption tax increasing by 3.9% and 2.5% respectively, while personal income tax grew by 11.5% and corporate income tax increased by 1.7% [2] - The performance of the equipment manufacturing and modern service industries was strong, with tax revenue from computer and communication equipment manufacturing up by 14.1%, and scientific research and technical services up by 14.6% [2][3] Group 2: Employment Trends - The unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 fell to 16.9% in November, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from October, marking the lowest level in five months [4] - The overall urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, indicating ongoing employment pressures, particularly among the youth demographic [4] - Recent government meetings emphasized policies to stabilize employment, particularly for key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers [4] Group 3: EU Automotive Regulations - The EU proposed to amend its 2035 ban on the sale of fuel and diesel vehicles, easing carbon emission standards from a 100% reduction to a 90% reduction, allowing more flexibility for traditional car manufacturers [6][7] - The new car registration in the EU saw a 1.4% year-on-year increase in the first ten months of 2025, with hybrid vehicles leading the market share at 34.6% [6] Group 4: Financial Sector Developments - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) announced a merger with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, with the new CICC expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in total assets and significantly expand its retail network [8][9] - The merger aligns with regulatory guidance to cultivate leading investment banks in China, addressing the high level of competition and service price pressures in the domestic brokerage industry [8] Group 5: Real Estate Financing Issues - A trend of converting business loans to housing loans has emerged as the interest rate for existing housing loans has decreased to around 3%, but this practice lacks policy support and carries significant compliance risks [10][11] - The narrowing interest rate spread between business and housing loans has exposed borrowers to increased financial risks, as the complexities of such transactions can lead to funding gaps [10] Group 6: Apple’s Market Adjustments - Apple has adjusted its iOS applications in Japan to comply with new regulations, allowing developers to distribute apps through third-party stores and integrate various payment methods, significantly reducing its commission rates [12][13] - The reduction of the so-called "Apple tax" in various regions poses challenges to Apple's profit margins, especially as it maintains a higher commission rate in China compared to other markets [12][13] Group 7: Meituan's New Business Venture - Meituan has quietly launched a "Find House" feature, primarily focusing on rental and second-hand housing, while collaborating with third-party real estate service providers for traffic distribution [14][15] - The entry into the real estate market reflects Meituan's strategy to diversify its business amid intense competition in local services, although it faces risks associated with customer satisfaction in this new domain [14][15]

A股三大指数今日涨跌不一，截至收盘，沪指涨0.16%报3876.37点，深证成指跌1.29%，创业板指跌 2.17%，北证50跌0.51%。全市场成交额16722亿元，较上日成交额缩量1621亿元，超2800股上涨。 盘面上，医药商业板块大涨，漱玉平民、华人健康20cm涨停；商业航天产业迎来政策与技术双重催 化，相关概念股现涨停潮，顺灏股份、北摩高科、西部材料等涨停；银行股全线上涨，上海银行、渝农 银行涨超3%；IP经济、军工装备、零售板块涨幅居前。另外，海南本地股集体调整，罗牛山、海马汽 车跌超9%：元件板块持续走低，山东精密跌超6%；电池股普跌，华盛锂电跌超10%，海科新源跌超 7%。(格隆汇) ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 19 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 创业板指低开低走跌超 2% 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3876.37 | 0.16% | 6.09 | | | 深证成指 | 13053.97 | -1.29% | -170.54 | | | 沪深 300 | 4552.79 | -0.59% | -27.08 | | | 创业板 | 3107.06 | -2.17% | -68.84 | | | 科创 50 | 1305.97 | -1.46% | -19.37 | | | 北证 50 | 1431.71 | -0.51% | -7.31 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 银行 | 1.97% ...

Group 1 - Commercial aerospace concept stock Shunhao Co., Ltd. hit the daily limit, with two leading funds buying a total of 164 million [1] - Meinian Health achieved a two-day consecutive limit increase, with one institution buying 68.66 million and the Shenzhen Stock Connect buying 83.11 million [1][12] - The top ten stocks by trading volume in the Shanghai Stock Connect included Guangyi Innovation, Industrial Fulian, and Zijing Mining [3] Group 2 - The total trading amount for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 83.089 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect was 100.309 billion [2] - The sectors with the highest net inflow of funds included defense and military, banking, and light manufacturing, while the electronic sector saw the highest net outflow [5][6] - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow of funds included Kaimeteqi, Zhaoyi Innovation, and China Xi [7] Group 3 - The top ten ETFs by trading volume included A500 ETF Huatai Baichuan and A500 ETF Fund, with significant changes in trading amounts compared to the previous trading day [9] - The ETF with the highest increase in trading amount compared to the previous day was Chemical ETF, with a growth of 166.17% [10] Group 4 - The four major index futures contracts saw both long and short positions decrease, with a notable reduction in short positions for IM and IC contracts [11]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached a total of 183.4 billion, with significant activity in specific stocks and sectors, indicating a dynamic market environment [1]. Trading Volume - The total trading amount for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 83.09 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 100.31 billion [2]. Top Stocks by Trading Volume - In the Shanghai Stock Connect, the top stock by trading volume was Zhaoyi Innovation with 1.881 billion, followed by Industrial Fulian and Zijin Mining [3]. - In the Shenzhen Stock Connect, the leading stock was CATL with 3.542 billion, followed by Xinyi Technology and Zhongji Xuchuang [3]. Sector Fund Flow - The defense and military sector saw the highest net inflow of funds at 2.106 billion, while the banking sector followed with 743 million [5]. - The electronic sector experienced the largest net outflow of funds at -11.454 billion, indicating a significant sell-off [6]. ETF Trading Activity - The Chemical ETF (516020) saw a remarkable increase in trading volume, with a 166% rise compared to the previous trading day [8]. - The top ETF by trading volume was A500 ETF Huatai Baichuan with 12.4331 billion, followed by A500 ETF Fund [7]. Futures Positioning - In the four major futures contracts, both long and short positions were reduced, with a notable decrease in short positions for IM and IC contracts [9]. Market Activity - The market saw active participation from institutions, with Meinian Health receiving significant buying interest from institutions totaling 686.6 million, alongside a net inflow from the Shenzhen Stock Connect of 831.1 million [11]. - The commercial aerospace concept stock Shunhao Co. hit the daily limit, attracting 164 million from two leading funds [12].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.16% to 3876.37 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.29% to 13053.97 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.17% to 3107.06 points [3][4]. Sector Performance - The consumer sector strengthened, particularly in retail, while commercial aerospace stocks experienced significant activity, with military stocks showing localized strength in the afternoon [3]. - The commercial aerospace sector saw a broad surge, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Shengyang Technology and Tianjian Technology [5]. - The lithium battery sector faced a decline, with notable drops in stocks such as Huasheng Lithium and Haike New Source [6][7]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.66 trillion yuan, a decrease of 155.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2800 stocks rising [7]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the aerospace, banking, and pharmaceutical sectors, while there were outflows from consumer electronics, securities, and semiconductors [10]. - Specific stocks like Kaimete Gas and China Satellite saw net inflows of 770 million yuan and 667 million yuan, respectively, while stocks like Industrial Fulian faced significant outflows totaling 2.443 billion yuan [10]. Institutional Insights - CICC indicated that the recent market pullback could provide good positioning opportunities for the first half of 2026 [11]. - Huashan Securities noted that historically, A-shares tend to exhibit high volatility in January following a significant rise, suggesting that the initiation of a spring rally remains to be observed [12]. - Everbright Securities projected that the index is likely to continue its range-bound oscillation [13].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.29% and 2.17% respectively, with a total trading volume of 1.66 trillion yuan, down by 155.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Retail concept stocks experienced a surge, with over 10 stocks including Shanghai Jiubai and Central Plaza hitting the daily limit [1] - The commercial aerospace sector was active, with Shengyang Technology achieving two consecutive limit-ups and Shunhao Co. hitting the daily limit [1] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical commercial sector continued its strong performance, with Lu Yan Pharmaceutical achieving two consecutive limit-ups and Zhongyao Holdings hitting four limit-ups in seven days [1] - The IP economy concept also performed well, with Guobo Co. and Sanxiang Impression hitting the daily limit [1] - In the Asia-Pacific market, major stock indices mostly declined, with the Nikkei 225 index down by 1.03% [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise the short-term interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75% in its upcoming policy meeting due to persistently high food prices and inflation exceeding the 2% target for nearly four years [5] - The South Korean Composite Index fell by 1.53%, with LG Energy Solution, a leading battery company, dropping by 8.90%, resulting in a market value loss of over 80 billion won (approximately 380 million yuan) [6] - Ford Motor Company canceled a $6.5 billion contract with LG Energy Solution for electric vehicle batteries, which is equivalent to 37.5% of LG Energy's total revenue last year, raising concerns about potential impacts on the entire battery industry [6]