Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a slight decline last week, influenced by the Federal Reserve's expectations regarding interest rate cuts in December and mixed employment data, but remains above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating potential for future strength [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices opened the week at $4084.59 per ounce, hitting a weekly low of $3997.78 on Tuesday, before reaching a high of $4132.38, ultimately closing at $4064.80, resulting in a weekly fluctuation of $134.6 and a decline of $19.79, or 0.48% [1] - The market is currently experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, with early signs of recovery supported by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, although facing resistance from a strong dollar index [3] Group 2: Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of a continued easing cycle from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical risks, alongside persistent demand for gold from global central banks and ETF holdings [6] - Historical trends suggest that corrections during easing cycles often present good buying opportunities, reinforcing the view that current adjustments may be seen as entry points for investors [6] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are above the 10-week moving average, with potential for further upward movement if key resistance levels are broken, while support levels are identified at the 60-day and 100-day moving averages [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The dovish signal from New York Fed President Williams last Friday increased the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut from less than 40% to over 70%, boosting the stock and precious - metal markets. However, there are significant differences within the Fed, which brings uncertainty to the market. Currently, the high - level US dollar index exerts pressure on gold and silver, but due to the potential for interest - rate cuts, the downside space for precious metals is limited. This week, the release of economic data may provide more clues for the Fed's policy path, and gold and silver will seek a breakthrough direction in volatility [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals: London gold traded around $4060, and London silver around $50. Driven by the overseas market, Shanghai gold closed down 0.52% at 930.32 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract closed down (the percentage is missing in the text) at 11,808 yuan/kilogram [3]. - US dollar index: It fluctuated slightly at a high level, currently trading around 100.17 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was horizontally consolidated, currently trading around 4.067% [5]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB weakened slightly against the US dollar, currently trading around 7.106 [6]. Important Information - US macro data: The preliminary November 2025 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.9 (4 - month low), the Services PMI was 55 (4 - month high), and the Composite PMI was 54.8 (4 - month high). The final November 2025 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was 51 (expected 50.5, previous 50.3), and the one - year inflation rate expectation was 4.5% (previous 4.70%) [7]. - Fed views: Williams believes the Fed can cut rates "soon" without harming the inflation target; Collins is cautious about a December rate cut but expects further cuts; Milan would support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is decisive; Logan thinks the Fed should "keep interest rates unchanged for the time being" [7]. - Fed observation: The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 69.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 30.6%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 56.9%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 20.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.3% [7]. Logical Analysis Williams' dovish remarks raised the market's expectation of a December rate cut, but the internal differences in the Fed still bring uncertainty. The high - level US dollar index pressures gold and silver, but the potential for interest - rate cuts limits their downside. This week's economic data may provide more clues for the Fed's policy, and gold and silver will seek a direction in volatility [9]. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Conservative investors should wait on the sidelines until the market direction is clear. Aggressive investors can cautiously try to go long at lows near the 20 - day moving average [10]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11]. - Options: Wait and see [12]. Data Reference The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, futures - spot trends, internal - external price differences, ETF holdings, futures trading volume, futures inventory, trading volume, TD data, and Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates, to help analyze the precious - metals market [15][17][18][20][23][26][30][38][43][44][47][50][55].

以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年11月24日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1295 | 元/克 | 10 | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1293 | 元/克 | 0 | 11 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1295 | 元/克 | 0 | 가 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1259 | 元/克 | 7 | 跌 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1293 | 元/克 | 0 | ने | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1295 | 元/克 | 10 | 跌 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1295 | 元/克 | 0 | ਸੇ | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1293 | 元/克 | 3 | 跌 | | 菜百黄金价格 | 1270 | 元/克 | 0 | म | | 上海中国黄金价格 | 1222 | 元/克 | 0 | ग | | 周大生黄金价格 | 1295 | 元/ 克 | 0 | 27 | 今日金店黄金价格持稳转跌，铂金价格稍有上涨，就拿周大生黄 ...

来源：中国金融信息网 新华财经上海11月24日电（葛佳明） 中国外汇交易中心公布数据显示，11月21日当周三大人民币汇率指数全线上涨，CFETS人民币汇率指数报98.22，按周 涨0.39，创2025年4月以来新高；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报104.66，按周涨0.5，创2025年4月以来新高；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报92.6，按周涨 0.34，创2025年3月以来新高。 | 指数名称 | 当日指数 | | --- | --- | | CFETS人民币汇率指数 | 98.22 | | BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 104.66 | | SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 92.60 | 上周（11月17日至21日）美元指数重新站上了100关口 ，全周累计上涨0.87%，一方面上周公布的美国9月的非农就业数据超出市场预期，且10月美联储议息 会议纪要偏"鹰派"，进一步降低了市场对美联储12月再次降息的预期；另一方面日元和英镑持续疲弱，对美元指数亦有一定支撑。 中金公司研究部外汇研究首席分析师李刘阳称，因市场对美联储降息预期摆动和风险情绪的恶化，推动美元走势，但基于对人民币汇率的升值预期以及年末 季节 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 100.271, while spot gold opened at $4065.22 per ounce and is currently trading at $4051.90 per ounce [1] - The previous trading day saw the US dollar index close down 0.03% at 100.190, and spot gold fell 0.30% to $4064.74 per ounce [1] - Other precious metals also experienced declines, with spot silver down 1.26% at $50.00 per ounce, platinum down 0.11% at $1511.00 per ounce, and palladium down 0.85% at $1374.75 per ounce [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - As of November 21, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 5.38 tons to 1143.49 tons, while COMEX silver inventory decreased by 37.57 tons to 14329.46 tons [2] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 1.14 tons to 1040.57 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 19.75 tons to 15246.63 tons [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US Michigan University current conditions index reached a historic low, while the preliminary manufacturing PMI from S&P Global hit a four-month low, and the services PMI reached a four-month high [6]

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices are expected to experience a significant drop, referred to as "Black Monday," providing relief to consumers after a recent price increase [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent strength of the US dollar has been a major factor influencing the oil market, leading to a decrease in demand for oil priced in non-dollar currencies [3][7]. - A month ago, the market anticipated a 90% chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, but this probability has plummeted to 35%, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3][7]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - The upcoming adjustment in domestic fuel prices is projected to result in a decrease of approximately 50 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of 0.04-0.05 yuan per liter at gas stations [5][6]. - The anticipated price drop will bring 92-octane gasoline back to the 6 yuan range and 95-octane gasoline below 7.4 yuan per liter [6]. Group 3: Regional Price Overview - Current gasoline prices across various regions in China are as follows: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 6.94, 95 gasoline at 7.39, 98 gasoline at 8.89, and diesel at 6.62 [4]. - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 6.91, 95 gasoline at 7.35, 98 gasoline at 9.25, and diesel at 6.56 [4]. - Guangdong: 92 gasoline at 6.96, 95 gasoline at 7.54, 98 gasoline at 9.54, and diesel at 6.59 [5]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The sustainability of the oil price decline remains uncertain, with questions surrounding the continued strength of the dollar and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy that could impact the market [7].

Global Capital Market Overview - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, increasing market volatility regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][5] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.87%, reaching a current level of 100.2, indicating the end of a weak dollar phase [1][5] - Global risk assets mostly declined, with equity markets experiencing significant drops, particularly in A-shares, Northbound 50, and Hang Seng Technology indices [1][5] Fund Flows - As of November 19, 2025, both domestic and foreign capital flowed into the Chinese stock market, with foreign capital inflows of $318 million and domestic inflows of $3.677 billion [2][10] - Overseas active funds saw an outflow of $301 million, while passive funds experienced an inflow of $619 million [2][10] - The U.S. equity market saw substantial inflows, particularly in technology and healthcare sectors, with a total of $11.8 billion entering the equity market [2][10] Valuation Metrics - As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is at the 81.9 percentile over the past decade, second only to the S&P 500 and France's CAC40, but remains significantly lower than U.S. stocks in absolute terms [3][10] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the S&P 500 decreased from 47% to 39%, while the Nasdaq's dropped from 46% to 35% [3][10] Market Sentiment Indicators - The S&P 500 closed at 6602.99, below the 20-day moving average, with an increase in implied volatility [4][10] - The put-call ratio for the S&P 500 decreased to 1.03 from 1.14, indicating a marginally more optimistic sentiment among investors [4][10] - In the A-share market, there was a significant increase in the open interest for call options on the CSI 300 index, reflecting high optimism for future market performance [4][10] Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data suggest a robust labor market, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5][10] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rose to 71% from 44.4% the previous week, indicating increasing market expectations for monetary easing [5][10] - China's economic indicators show a weakening investment trend, but CPI and PPI are showing signs of marginal recovery, confirming further recovery signals [5][10]

Market Overview - The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%[3] - The US dollar index increased by 0.87% to 100.2, indicating the end of a weak dollar environment[3] - Global risk assets mostly declined, with significant drops in equity markets, particularly in A-shares and the Hang Seng Tech Index[3] Fund Flows - In the week ending November 19, 2025, foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market totaled $318 million, while domestic capital inflows reached $3.677 billion[3] - The US equity market saw a substantial inflow of $11.8 billion, while fixed income funds in the US attracted $10.99 billion[15] Valuation Metrics - As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation percentile was at 81.9%, second only to the S&P 500 and France's CAC40, but still significantly lower than US equities[3] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the S&P 500 decreased from 47% to 39%, while the Nasdaq's dropped from 46% to 35%[3] Risk Sentiment - The S&P 500 closed at 6,602.99, below the 20-day moving average, with an implied volatility trend on the rise[3] - The put-call ratio for the S&P 500 decreased to 1.03 from 1.14, indicating a marginal increase in market optimism[3] Economic Data - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 71% from 44.4% the previous week, with an 80% chance of rates falling to 3.5%-3.75% by January 2026[3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat compared to last week, and European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply [4]. - As of November 16, 17 ships departed from New Zealand in November, with 16 bound for mainland China, and it is expected that 1.41 million cubic meters will arrive in November [5][8]. - As of the week of November 14, the daily average shipment volume of major ports decreased, and the total inventory of four major ports increased by 29,200 cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][13]. - As of the week of November 23, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 7.1% week - on - week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 4.0% week - on - week. The US dollar strengthened, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate rising by 0.15% week - on - week and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate rising by 1.6% [6][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - As of November 16, 17 ships departed from New Zealand in November, 16 of which were headed for mainland China, and 12 ships were expected to arrive in November and 5 in December. The expected arrival volume in November is 1.41 million cubic meters [5][8]. Demand and Inventory - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 20,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 1,700 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 10,700 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 300 cubic meters) [6][13]. - Inventory: The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.2928 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 27,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 371,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 24,800 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 264,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 9,900 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 181,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 32,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.11 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 29,200 cubic meters [6][13]. Market Trends - As of November 21, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 768.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 2.3% compared to last week. The monthly spread (absolute value) widened this week [19]. Price and Spread - Spot price: The prices of various specifications of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat compared to last week, with varying degrees of decline compared to four weeks ago [22]. - Regional spread: The report presents the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu regions [22][24][29]. - Tree species and specification spread: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications of radiata pine [41][43][45]. Other - Freight and exchange rate: As of the week of November 23, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 7.1% week - on - week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 4.0% week - on - week. The US dollar strengthened, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate rising by 0.15% week - on - week and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate rising by 1.6% [6][55][56].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a recent high point followed by a slight decline, reflecting a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors and demand variations [1][4][9] Group 2 - Domestic spot aluminum prices have shown a narrow rebound after a high-level drop, with the A00 aluminum price ranging from 21,550 to 21,590 CNY/ton as of November 20, averaging 21,570 CNY/ton, which is a decrease of 340 CNY/ton or 1.55% from the previous period, but an increase of 790 CNY/ton or 3.80% year-on-year [1][3] - The average price for the period was 21,622 CNY/ton, down by 14 CNY/ton or 0.06% from the previous average [1][3] - The macroeconomic environment is cooling, with a significant divergence in demand across different sectors, leading to a downward shift in aluminum prices [1][2][9] Group 3 - The London aluminum market has seen a decline, with prices dropping to 2,814.5 USD/ton as of November 19, down by 71.5 USD/ton or 2.48% from the previous period, but up by 169 USD/ton or 6.39% year-on-year [5] - Factors influencing this decline include a cooling of previously supportive macroeconomic sentiments and reduced expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5][9] Group 4 - Domestic aluminum inventory has increased, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory rising to 69,408 tons, an increase of 4,666 tons or 7.21% from the previous period, but down by 63,993 tons or 47.97% year-on-year [6] - Conversely, London aluminum inventory decreased to 544,075 tons, down by 9,125 tons or 1.65% from the previous period, and down by 167,325 tons or 23.52% year-on-year [6] Group 5 - The electrolytic aluminum industry is operating at a stable capacity utilization rate of over 96%, with ongoing production ramp-up in various regions [7] - The overall supply of aluminum ingots remains normal, with a slight decline in the local conversion rate of aluminum water [7] Group 6 - The aluminum processing market has seen a downward adjustment in prices, with the mainstream price for 3003 aluminum plates in Shandong at 24,270 CNY/ton, down by 340 CNY/ton or 1.38% from the previous period, but up by 790 CNY/ton or 3.36% year-on-year [8] - The decline in aluminum prices has led to a moderate recovery in purchasing willingness among downstream processing plants, although demand remains primarily driven by essential purchases [8] Group 7 - The outlook for the aluminum market suggests that prices may face pressure and fluctuate at high levels, with expectations of a slight decline in average prices [9] - Key influencing factors include macroeconomic uncertainties, upcoming U.S. employment data, and the ongoing monitoring of production cuts in Iceland, alongside varying demand across different sectors [9]