Ah, the stock market. A bastion of rational thought, meticulous planning, and predictable outcomes. Or, at least, that’s what the textbooks say. In the era of President Donald Trump, however, it’s less a bastion and more a bungee jump, with policy announcements serving as the cord, and the market’s collective stomach serving as the primary indicator of presidential pronouncements. The past few days, culminating on October 28, 2025, have been a masterclass in this particular brand of economic theater, featur ...

Let's talk to our geniuses. Art Laugher, former Reagan economist. Steve Moore, host of More Money on WABC radio.Arthur, how did I do. Did I get this right. I mean, profits are the mother's milk.>> You did great. >> The discount rate. I got I got it all in there, man.I learned it from you 50 years ago. >> You did it perfectly. You know, it's amazing, Larry, how both religion and stock prices are driven by profits.>> Religion. >> I'm sorry. I'm sorry.I had to say that. I've been preparing for that for days. I ...

Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - The upcoming meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping is generating optimism in the markets, with expectations of a substantial framework for a deal [1][2] - Key provisions being discussed include the removal of potential tariff increases, which would have seen a 100% increase in tariffs scheduled for the weekend [2] - There is an expectation of a delay on China's export controls on rare earth minerals, which had previously escalated tensions [3][20] - Substantial Chinese purchases of American soybeans are anticipated, which would significantly benefit US farmers currently selling zero soybeans to China [3][4][14] - The deal regarding the spin-off of TikTok is reportedly finalized, pending approval from both leaders [4][5] - Chinese confirmation of these provisions is still awaited, with state media indicating a basic consensus but lacking specific details [5][6] Group 2: US-Canada Trade Relations - Tensions are rising between the US and Canada, highlighted by Trump's announcement of an additional 10% tariff on Canada, which adds to the existing 35% tariffs [9][10] - The imposition of tariffs is linked to a negative advertisement that criticized Trump's tariff policies, indicating a deterioration in trade relations [8][22] Group 3: US-Mexico Trade Relations - In contrast to Canada, trade relations with Mexico appear more stable, with a tariff deadline that could have increased tariffs now off the table, allowing for continued negotiations [11][12]

Trade Negotiations & Agreements - Optimism surrounding the Trump-Xi meeting fuels markets, with potential for a substantial framework agreement [1] - A key market-friendly provision involves halting potential tariff increases, specifically a 100% tariff increase scheduled for the weekend [2] - Expectation of a delay in China's export controls on rare earth minerals, a move initiated earlier in the month [3] - Potential for substantial Chinese purchases of American soybeans, a significant development for US farmers currently selling zero soybeans to China [3][4] - Finalization of a deal to spin off TikTok is anticipated, pending final approval from Presidents Trump and Xi [4][5] - China confirms progress in talks but uses less enthusiastic language, stating a "basic consensus" on arrangements without providing details [6] US-Canada Trade Relations - Trade relations between the US and Canada are strained due to disagreements over tariffs and an ad criticizing Trump's tariff policies [8][9] - Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on Canada, on top of the existing 35% tariffs [9] - Existing trade talks between Trump and Canada are frozen [10] US-Mexico Trade Relations - A tariff deadline that could have increased tariffs on Mexico has been postponed, allowing for continued talks [11] - Trump's rhetorical focus is more aimed at Canada than Mexico [12] Soybean Trade - China has not fully met its Phase One agreement commitments, creating an opportunity for increased soybean purchases from the US [17] - Increased soybean purchases by China could alleviate pressure on President Trump to reach a domestic deal with Democrats regarding funding for a bailout package [18] Rare Earth Minerals - China may delay aggressive restrictions and licensing requirements on rare earth minerals, potentially for a year [20] - Beijing is negotiating with the European Union to ensure the supply of magnets, chemicals, and rare earths, countering the impact of the US-China trade war [20] Presidential Tariff Authority - The Supreme Court is considering a case regarding the president's authority to unilaterally impose tariffs [21][22] - Lower courts previously ruled against the president's authority to impose tariffs, with a decision from the Supreme Court expected potentially by mid-December [23] - Approximately $4 trillion is at stake in the Supreme Court case regarding presidential tariff authority [24] Government Shutdown - There is no progress in resolving the government shutdown [24] - The House Republican Conference will be absent, and President Trump will not sign a bill to reopen the government while in Asia [25]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market has experienced a significant rally despite adverse economic indicators, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth [1]. Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate has reached its highest level since 2021, and inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, increased to 3% in September from 2.3% in April [3]. - Earnings for S&P 500 companies are projected to have risen by 9.2% in the third quarter, with a net profit margin estimated at 12.8%, up from 12.4% the previous year [8]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 has rallied 35% since early April when President Trump paused most reciprocal tariffs, with a year-to-date gain of 15.5% [1]. - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is near 23, a level historically associated with lackluster returns [3]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts, including those from Bank of America, are adjusting their forecasts in light of the current market conditions and potential risks [4]. - There is a notable uncertainty in the market due to tariffs, which previously caused a nearly 20% decline in the S&P 500 [5]. Corporate Strategies - Companies have managed to offset profit impacts by negotiating lower prices from vendors and implementing cost-cutting measures, including layoffs and passing price increases to consumers [6][11]. - Nearly 1 million workers have been laid off in the U.S. through September, marking a 55% increase from the previous year, indicating struggles within the labor market [9].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are optimistic about Arm Holdings stock, with UBS raising its price target, leading to a notable increase in share price [1][3]. Group 1: Analyst Outlook - UBS maintains a buy rating on Arm stock and has increased its price target from $175 to $200, indicating a positive outlook based on easing tariff concerns affecting the smartphone supply chain [3]. - The $200 price target suggests a potential upside of 17.2% from Arm's closing price of $170.68 [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Valuation - Arm's semiconductors are critical in the smartphone market, with an estimated 99% of smartphones incorporating Arm's components [3]. - Despite the bullish outlook, Arm stock is trading at a high valuation of approximately 263 times trailing earnings, which may deter some investors seeking more reasonably priced semiconductor stocks [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to consider the shorter investment horizons of analysts compared to long-term holding strategies favored by some investors [5][7]. - The Motley Fool's analyst team has identified ten stocks they believe are better investment opportunities than Arm Holdings [8].

Core Insights - The housing market is experiencing a slowdown, leading to builders cutting prices and offering incentives to sell finished homes, which in turn affects the demand for construction materials like lumber [1][3][19] - Lumber futures have decreased significantly from their August peak of around $695 per thousand board feet to the $590–$610 range, indicating a shift in market dynamics where supply exceeds demand [3][4][17] - Steel demand is also weak, with global prices under pressure due to insufficient consumption across various sectors, although certain regions still show strong demand for steel related to infrastructure and industrial projects [12][16][20] Lumber Market Analysis - Builders overestimated the demand for new homes, leading to excess inventory and a subsequent decline in lumber prices as housing starts and permits dropped [2][3][4] - The lumber market is signaling that housing is not absorbing materials quickly enough, which is a precursor to a slowdown in flatbed freight related to residential construction [8][19] - The expectation is that flatbed carriers heavily reliant on residential construction will face increased competition and need to diversify their service offerings to maintain profitability [10][18] Steel Market Analysis - Global steel demand has been weak throughout 2025, with prices affected by oversupply and insufficient end-use demand, particularly in Asia [12][13] - U.S. steel mills are benefiting from tariffs that limit imported steel, allowing them to maintain production levels despite weak global demand [14][16] - Certain sectors, such as energy and infrastructure, continue to drive demand for steel, indicating that while the overall market is soft, opportunities still exist in specific regions and industries [15][20] Future Outlook - The overall sentiment for flatbed freight heading into 2026 is one of caution, with expectations of a slow recovery in both lumber and steel markets [17][20] - The best opportunities for flatbed carriers will likely shift away from residential construction towards non-residential projects that are less sensitive to interest rates, such as utility infrastructure and industrial builds [18][20] - Carriers are advised to adapt to the changing landscape by broadening their service areas and focusing on sectors that continue to show demand despite the cooling housing market [10][18]

Trade & Agriculture - The decision to import beef from Argentina is facing criticism from both Democrats and Republicans, with American ranchers expressing concerns about potential threats to their livelihoods [1] - A Trump official claimed similar hardships at struggling ranchers and farmers [1] - The announcement of a deal with China is expected to bring relief to soybean farmers [3] - Wisconsin has zero purchase orders from China for soybeans [6] - Farmers are experiencing negative impacts from tariffs on farming inputs like fertilizer and tractors [6] - Small farmers are affected by retaliatory tariffs, such as increased costs for milk bottles from Canada [7][8] - Iowa and Nebraska's economies have been significantly impacted due to Trump's tariff taxes [10][11] Political & Economic Impact - A Congressman criticized a person worth $500 million acting as a soybean farmer as insulting [4][5] - Concerns are raised about the demolition of the East Wing of the White House and the transparency of donor contributions [12][13] - The administration is accused of "pay-to-play" practices, with concerns about special interests influencing government decisions [17][18]

Trade Relations & Tariffs - The U S is reportedly willing to extend the trade deadline with Mexico for several weeks amid ongoing conversations [2] - Mexico currently faces a 25% tariff on non-USMCA compliant goods [4] - The threat of tariffs on Mexico had been that the rate could increase to 30% [4] - Tariffs imposed on Mexico are related to fentanyl concerns and border issues, not reciprocal trade [5] - A 35% tariff is in place on non-USMCA compliant goods [7] - There is a 50% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum [7] USMCA & Trade Agreement Implications - The U S-Mexico trade relationship is being given preferential treatment compared to Canada, according to President Trump [4] - It remains uncertain whether the additional 10% tariff will extend to USMCA compliant goods [7] - The U S is closely monitoring potential concessions from Mexico to meet President Trump's demands [6]

Trade Agreements Overview - Agreements with four Asian nations establish frameworks, not legally binding documents, focusing on trade and tariffs [1] - TD Cowan provides a summary of the documentation related to these deals [1] Tariff and Investment Details - Malaysia agreement includes a 19% baseline tariff and $150 billion in foreign direct investment for semis, aircraft, and data center equipment [2] - Cambodia agreement also sets a 19% baseline tariff, with Air Cambodia committing to Boeing collaboration [2] - Thailand secures a 19% baseline tariff and agrees to purchase American aircraft, energy, and agricultural products [2] - Vietnam framework features a 20% tariff and purchase agreements in agriculture and aircraft [3] Focus on China - Agreements aim to curb transshipments of Chinese products to bypass tariffs [3] Future Negotiations - The United States may offer tariff exemptions within the 19% baseline tariffs for specific products, details pending negotiation [4]