Economic Outlook - The assessment of the economic situation has become more positive, with major economic indicators performing well, leading to a projected economic growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, exceeding the annual target[3] - Concerns over external shocks have significantly eased, reflecting the effectiveness of measures taken against the recent tariff war with the U.S.[3] - The focus of future economic work is expected to shift towards enhancing domestic circulation and improving quality and efficiency[3] Policy Adjustments - Supply-side quality enhancement has re-emerged as a policy focus, emphasizing technological innovation and the development of internationally competitive emerging industries[4] - The macroeconomic policy stance has shifted to a more neutral tone, with potential for minor interest rate cuts, particularly a 10 basis point reduction expected in August[5] - Fiscal policy remains cautious, with a low probability of increasing special bond issuance, while emphasizing the need to effectively release domestic demand potential[5] Real Estate and Capital Markets - The focus of real estate policy is shifting from stimulating incremental demand to high-quality urban renewal, with a more cautious approach to urban development[6] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in capital market recovery[6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Politburo meeting emphasizes stability over innovation for the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, contrasting with the previous focus on seizing opportunities during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Policy Direction - The urgency for macroeconomic policy has decreased, shifting from "accelerated implementation" in April to "timely reinforcement" in July, indicating less pressure to boost domestic demand due to strong external demand [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for policy continuity and stability, focusing on the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing new ones, with limited incremental policies [2] - Key areas of focus include technology innovation, boosting consumption, supporting small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade, with major economic provinces taking a leading role [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy aims to improve the efficiency of fund usage, gradually phasing out inefficient investments, and prohibits new hidden debts for local governments, which may pressure local infrastructure investments [3] - Monetary policy has shifted from supporting the real economy to promoting a reduction in social financing costs, benefiting residents and enterprises broadly, with a focus on interest rate transmission mechanisms [3] - Consumer demand remains a priority, with an emphasis on nurturing new growth points in service consumption and improving livelihoods rather than just increasing income [3] Market Regulation and Competition - The meeting introduced the need to standardize local investment attraction practices, continuing the "anti-involution" policy direction, and aims to reshape market competition order [5] - The approach to supply-side reform differs from 2015, focusing on market-driven measures rather than administrative shutdowns, leading to a more moderate impact on prices [5] Foreign Trade and Capital Markets - Increased support for foreign trade enterprises was noted, with a focus on enhancing financing support for those significantly impacted by tariffs [5] - The capital market is expected to further open up, with an emphasis on maintaining a healthy market trend and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusivity [6] Urban Development - The meeting underscored the transition of urban development from large-scale expansion to quality improvement, aligning with the central urban work meeting's spirit [6] Commodity Market Outlook - The supply-side reform's impact on market competition is expected to be less forceful compared to previous measures, while demand-side policies are shifting towards the implementation of existing measures, leading to a moderate overall stimulus [8] - The previous bullish sentiment in commodities may stabilize as capacity reduction and demand expansion efforts are yet to be fully realized [8]

中国宏观经济研究院党委书记、院长黄汉权在7月30日习近平经济思想2025年会上回答证券时报记者提 问时表示，全国统一大市场建设与构建新发展格局密切关联。内循环、外循环都需要通过市场进行，市 场规模越大，市场范围越广，要素资源才能在更广阔的空间、更加高效地流动。全国统一大市场建设是 构建新发展格局的重要内容，目前全国统一大市场建设仍然面临一些堵点、卡点，我们看到的地方保 护、市场壁垒都只是现象性的问题，本质上是体制机制的问题。在政绩考核、财税体制、统计等方面加 大力度破解卡点、堵点，才能顺利推进全国统一大市场建设，助力加快构建新发展格局。(人民财讯) ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies for advancing the construction of a unified national market in China, emphasizing the need for improved foundational systems and the reduction of local government protectionism [2][3][4]. Group 1: Challenges in Unified Market Construction - The foundational systems for the unified market are currently inadequate, characterized by vague standards, excessive discretionary power, and inconsistent market access criteria across different regions [2][3]. - Local government protectionism distorts the original intent of foundational systems, driven by a reliance on GDP and tax revenue for performance evaluations, leading to short-term and localized problem-solving approaches [3]. Group 2: Recommendations for Improvement - Establish a closed-loop foundational system for the unified market, including legislative enhancements, compliance checks, and regular evaluations of regulations [4]. - Strengthen central institutional coordination to reduce local barriers and enhance regulatory oversight, similar to the EU's approach of transferring regulatory powers to a central authority [4]. - Shift government functions from direct economic intervention to regulatory oversight to mitigate local government protectionism and maintain market order [4]. Group 3: Case Study - The "One Code Integration" reform in Puyang City, Henan Province, exemplifies a successful initiative to address the "access but not operation" issue by integrating various licenses into a single QR code on business licenses, significantly improving market efficiency [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing legal, credit, and intelligent regulation in market supervision to address deep-seated contradictions and issues in the market, while also improving the business environment and promoting high-quality economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Key Aspects of Market Regulation - The focus areas for strengthening market regulation include supporting the construction of a unified national market, addressing local protectionism, and responding to public concerns regarding food safety, drug safety, and industrial product quality [2][3]. - The National Market Supervision Administration is drafting the "Special Reform Plan for Legal Market Supervision (2025-2027)" to continuously enhance the legal framework of market regulation [1][2]. Group 2: Legislative Improvements - The "Draft Amendment to the Price Law" is being solicited for public opinion, marking the first revision since its implementation in 1998, which aims to provide legal grounds for addressing "involution" competition [3][4]. - The draft specifies that predatory pricing practices aimed at eliminating competitors or monopolizing the market will be strictly regulated and punished, highlighting the need for a robust legal framework to maintain fair competition [3][4]. Group 3: Enforcement and Social Impact - The effectiveness of enforcement is crucial, as arbitrary enforcement and excessive penalties can undermine public trust in regulatory bodies [5]. - The National Market Supervision Administration has emphasized the need for a balanced approach to enforcement, combining education and penalties, and has introduced a list of minor violations that may not incur penalties, aiming for a fair and humane regulatory environment [5].

国家信息中心经济预测部产业经济研究室主任魏琪嘉表示，综合整治"内卷式"竞争，规范地方政府和企 业行为，这一部署着重通过系统施策，针对在公平竞争过程中出现的违背市场规律、产业发展规律的不 当做法进行集中治理，以便更好发挥市场配置资源的作用，营造良好的产业发展生态环境，具有牵一发 而动全身的作用。 建立健全反内卷长效机制 整治"内卷式"竞争，7月开始更加注重健全"长效机制"，且新能源汽车、光伏将是重点。 近段时间以来，政策层面正持续密集部署新能源汽车、光伏等行业的"反内卷"，钢铁、水泥、电池、塑 料加工等多个行业协会也陆续发起号召反对"内卷式"无序竞争。 7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议明确强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点， 依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。 两天后，工信部召开了光伏行业制造业企业座谈会，强调依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争， 引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出，实现健康、可持续发展。 综合整治"内卷式"无序竞争，已成为下一阶段工业稳增长的重点工作之一。 下半年面对更加复杂严峻的外部环境，全国工业和信息化主管部门负责同志 ...

综合整治"内卷式"竞争是解决当前经济发展矛盾的关键举措。工信部强调，巩固新能源汽车行业"内卷式"竞争综合整治成效，加强光伏等重点行业治理，以 标准提升倒逼落后产能退出。相关部门正着力建立健全反内卷的"长效机制"，反内卷的制度和法律监管体系也日趋完善。 综合整治"内卷式"无序竞争，已成为下一阶段工业稳增长的重点工作之一。 下半年面对更加复杂严峻的外部环境，全国工业和信息化主管部门负责同志座谈会7月28日在北京召开，总结上半年工作，分析当前形势，部署下一阶段重 点任务。 工信部明确，下半年突出"强筋壮骨"、价值创造、安全保障、行业治理，重点抓好八个方面工作，包括扩大内需、加力推进重点产业链高质量发展行动、更 大力度推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展、深化数字技术赋能应用、提升工业能效与绿色发展水平等。 综合整治"内卷式"竞争是解决当前经济发展矛盾的关键举措。工信部强调，巩固新能源汽车行业"内卷式"竞争综合整治成效，加强光伏等重点行业治理，以 标准提升倒逼落后产能退出。相关部门正着力建立健全反内卷的"长效机制"，反内卷的制度和法律监管体系也日趋完善。 （这是京杭大运河杭州段一出口汽车码头上等待出口的新能源汽车。图片来源 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing efforts to strengthen the rule of law in market regulation, highlighting the importance of legal, credit, and intelligent supervision to address deep-seated contradictions and issues in the market [1] Group 1: Market Regulation Focus Areas - Key areas for enhancing market regulation include supporting the construction of a unified national market, addressing local protectionism, and tackling "involution" competition through effective legal governance [2] - There is a need for proactive responses to public concerns regarding food safety, drug safety, and industrial product quality [2] Group 2: Legal Framework Improvement - The draft amendment to the Price Law, the first since its implementation in 1998, aims to provide legal grounds for addressing "involution" competition by defining low-cost dumping practices [3] - The amendment seeks to establish a long-term governance mechanism to prevent irrational market competition driven by capital excess [3] Group 3: Regulatory Adaptation to New Business Models - The market regulatory authority is working to fill regulatory gaps for new business models, such as live e-commerce, and is enhancing the regulatory framework for platform algorithms [4] - This reflects the continuous improvement and dynamic updating of the market regulatory legal system [4] Group 4: Enforcement and Social Impact - The effectiveness of enforcement is crucial, as arbitrary enforcement and excessive penalties can undermine public trust in regulatory bodies [5] - The case of the "frog soup" incident illustrates issues of improper enforcement and abuse of power, highlighting the need for a balanced approach to regulation [5] - The regulatory authority plans to implement a list of first-time non-penalties and minor exemptions, aiming for a fair and humane enforcement approach [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Oscillating [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish in the short - term [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock indices, the recent Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission emphasized the construction of a unified national market with "five unifications and one opening". The market has high expectations for corporate profit recovery and inflation stabilization under the anti - involution background. However, the central government is still stimulating the economy through investment, which may bring incremental funds in the short - term but the long - term effect remains to be seen. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down due to strong "non - farm" data, weakening the boost to domestic small - cap indices. The index fundamentals depend on the domestic economic recovery process. With PPI continuing to decline in June, credit contraction and insufficient demand are the main contradictions, making it difficult for the index to break through the central level and rise significantly. On the other hand, corporate profits in the first half of 2025 improved compared to 2024, and with the support of allocation funds, the A - share index is not likely to fall sharply in the short - term. It is expected to oscillate in the future [1]. - For treasury bonds, on July 28, 2025, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts rose by 0.56%, 0.18%, 0.13%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. After deducting the 170.7 billion yuan of reverse repos due on the same day, the net investment was 325.1 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 in the inter - bank market decreased. The export growth rate in June exceeded expectations, the total financial data exceeded expectations and the structure continued to improve. The GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 5.2%, and the economic data in June remained resilient, reducing the short - term expectation of interest - rate cuts. Since July, the anti - involution policy expectations have driven up market risk appetite, with stock indices and commodities rising strongly, suppressing the bond market sentiment. In the short - term, the bond market rebound is basically over, and the bond market is expected to show a recovery trend, with treasury bonds bullish in the short - term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes in the Second Quarter - Stock Index Futures: On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, IH rose by 9.0 points (0.32%), IF rose by 6.0 points (0.15%), IC rose by 6.0 points (0.10%), and IM fell by 3.8 points (- 0.06%) [3] - Stock Indices: On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose by 7.3 points (0.26%), the CSI 300 rose by 8.7 points (0.21%), the CSI 500 rose by 23.8 points (0.38%), and the CSI 1000 rose by 23.4 points (0.35%) [3] - Treasury Bond Futures: On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, TS rose by 0.052 points (0.05%), TF rose by 0.15 points (0.14%), T rose by 0.215 points (0.20%), and TL rose by 0.83 points (0.70%) [3] 3.2 Market News - On July 28, regarding the Sino - US - Swedish economic and trade talks, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that China's stance on economic and trade issues is consistent. China hopes that the US will implement the important consensus reached in the phone call between the two heads of state, play the role of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations through dialogue and communication [5] 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the monthly basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [7][8][9][10] 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][16][17] 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - The report includes the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate [20][21][22][24][25][27] 3.4 Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [28] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0019537 [28]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market experienced significant volatility, with major contracts for coking coal, glass, coke, soda ash, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate hitting the limit down [1] - Over ten varieties, including alumina and polysilicon, saw declines exceeding 3%, marking a shift from previous bullish sentiment driven by "anti-involution" policy expectations to panic selling [1][3] - The implementation of position limits by exchanges was a direct catalyst for the market reversal, coinciding with a period of heightened market enthusiasm [3] Group 2 - From July 1 to July 25, polysilicon futures prices surged by 52.31%, glass futures by 33.79%, and lithium carbonate futures by 28.46%, while coking coal futures rose by 49.44% over seven consecutive trading days [3] - The position limits imposed by exchanges directly impacted speculative trading, forcing speculative funds to reduce positions and exit the market [3] - Despite the market's sharp adjustment, the fundamental logic behind the "anti-involution" policy remains, aiming to improve the current state of vicious competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [4] Group 3 - The steel industry, as a key focus of regulatory measures, is expected to see a year-on-year production decline of 5% in the third quarter, which will positively affect the fundamentals of coking coal as a crucial raw material [4] - The situation in the new energy supply chain is more complex, with lithium and silicon facing weak fundamentals but supported by strong policy expectations, leading to a rebound despite high inventory levels and oversupply [4] - The glass industry faces ongoing supply pressure, with float glass production maintaining around 156,800 tons per day, and demand showing no significant improvement, leading to a pessimistic market outlook [5]