前言： 家人们，现在全球都在抢市场，这玩意儿比黄金还稀缺。而中国的超大规模市场，正是咱们搞中国式现 代化的压舱石。 就说刚闭幕的第八届进博会，36.7万平方米的展览面积、4108家参展企业，全都是历史新高，光世界 500强就来了290家。 展会上461项新品首发，浙江交易团第一天就签了145亿大单，阿斯利康更是当场追加1.36亿美元投资扩 产能，这哪是展会啊，简直是中国市场魅力的"沉浸式体验区"。 从"市场换技术"到"市场育技术"，中国成了创新策源地 党的二十届四中全会把超大规模市场优势和制度优势、产业体系优势、人才优势并列为"四大优势"，这 可不是随便说说。 领导人早就点透了："市场资源是我国的巨大优势，必须充分利用和发挥这个优势。"到了"十五五"规 划，更是明确要让全国统一大市场往深里走，把这个优势越做越明显。 说白了，要续写经济快速发展和社会长期稳定这两大奇迹，就得把咱们这个市场优势用好用足。 仔细琢磨就会发现，中国市场有三个特别突出的特点：能引领潮流、底盘稳得住、未来有奔头。这三点 正是咱们在复杂国际环境里站稳脚跟的底气所在。 现在的中国市场早不是当年单纯买技术的阶段了，而是能用庞大需求催生出新技术、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic planning and goals set forth in the "15th Five-Year Plan" for China's economic and social development, emphasizing the importance of achieving a per capita GDP level comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035, which requires maintaining an average annual growth rate of approximately 4.8% during the "15th Five-Year" period [1][6][10]. Economic Growth and Productivity - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to maintain economic growth within a reasonable range while steadily improving total factor productivity and significantly increasing the resident consumption rate [1][6]. - To achieve the target of per capita GDP reaching around $25,000 by 2035, an average annual growth rate of 4.8% is necessary, with potential growth rates estimated between 4.5% and 4.8% [6][7]. Demographic Challenges and Consumption - China is entering a phase of negative population growth and moderate aging, with projections indicating that by 2032, over 21% of the population will be aged 65 and above, which will impact consumption patterns [7]. - The emphasis on increasing the resident consumption rate is crucial to counteract the negative effects of demographic changes and to enhance the income levels and consumption capabilities of residents, particularly the elderly [7][10]. Income Distribution and Middle-Income Expansion - Expanding the middle-income group is essential for achieving higher levels of common prosperity and modernization by 2035 [10]. - Improving income distribution requires coordinated efforts across primary, secondary, and tertiary distribution, with a focus on enhancing labor market conditions and reducing structural unemployment [10][12]. Government Investment and Social Services - The article highlights the need for government spending to focus more on "investing in people" rather than solely on material investments, suggesting a shift in priorities to enhance social welfare and public services [8][13]. - Increasing the share of social spending in GDP is necessary to improve the quality of life and reduce poverty transmission across generations [13]. Artificial Intelligence and Employment - The development of artificial intelligence (AI) presents both challenges and opportunities for employment, necessitating alignment with an "employment-first strategy" to ensure that AI enhances rather than replaces human labor [14][15]. - AI can help address structural employment issues by improving labor productivity and facilitating the transition of labor from low-productivity agricultural sectors to higher-productivity non-agricultural sectors [20][22]. Urbanization and Household Registration Reform - The article discusses the ongoing urbanization process and the need for reforming the household registration system to facilitate labor mobility and improve access to public services for rural residents transitioning to urban areas [16][17]. - Enhancing public services in urban areas and reducing the disparity in service quality between urban and rural regions are critical for successful urbanization [17]. Agricultural Modernization - The potential for agricultural modernization in China is significant, with opportunities for labor transfer from agriculture to higher productivity sectors, supported by advancements in technology and AI [20][22]. - Modern agriculture is characterized by high labor productivity, large operational scales, and the application of scientific technologies, which can be further enhanced through AI [21][22].

Economic Growth and Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a reasonable economic growth rate to achieve a per capita GDP at the level of middle-income countries by 2035, requiring an average annual growth rate of approximately 4.8% during this period [6][10] - The plan emphasizes the importance of improving total factor productivity, increasing the resident consumption rate, and ensuring synchronized growth of resident income and economic growth [6][10] Consumption and Income Distribution - The focus on increasing the resident consumption rate is crucial due to the anticipated challenges from negative population growth and aging demographics, which will impact demand [7][10] - The Gini coefficient of 0.465 indicates a need for improved income distribution, with efforts to ensure that low-income groups see faster income growth compared to high-income groups [7][10][12] Middle-Income Group Expansion - Expanding the middle-income group is essential for achieving higher levels of common prosperity and modernization, necessitating coordinated improvements in initial, secondary, and tertiary income distribution [10][12] - The labor market must address structural unemployment, particularly among the elderly and youth, through targeted training and support [10][11] Role of Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to exacerbate structural employment issues but can also enhance labor productivity, providing solutions to these challenges [15][16] - A systematic governance framework is needed to align AI development with employment priorities, ensuring that AI not only replaces jobs but also enhances worker capabilities [15][16] Urban-Rural Integration and Household Registration Reform - The reform of the household registration system is critical for urbanization, with the potential to convert over 200 million rural residents into urban citizens, thereby stabilizing labor supply and enhancing economic growth [18][19] - The focus should be on improving public services in smaller cities and rural areas to attract and retain residents [19] Agricultural Modernization - China's agricultural labor force still has significant potential for transfer to higher productivity sectors, with current agricultural labor accounting for 22% of the workforce [22][23] - Modern agriculture is characterized by high labor productivity, large operational scales, and the application of advanced technologies, including AI, to enhance efficiency and output [23][24]

21世纪经济报道记者 周潇枭 北京报道党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和 社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下文简称《建议》），对未来五年我国经济社会发展作出系统谋 划和战略部署。 "十五五"是基本实现社会主义现代化的关键五年。到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化，一个重要的标志 性指标是人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平，这要求"十五五"时期经济发展保持适当速度。 《建议》明确提出，经济增长保持在合理区间、全要素生产率稳步提升、居民消费率明显提高、经济增 长潜力得到充分释放、高质量充分就业取得新进展、居民收入增长和经济增长同步、劳动报酬提高和劳 动生产率提高同步、分配结构得到优化、中等收入群体持续扩大、基本公共服务均等化水平明显提升等 重要目标。 （中国社会科学院学部委员蔡昉，受访者供图） 经济增长更大挑战来自需求侧 《21世纪》：2035年要实现人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平，这要求"十五五"时期维持怎样的经济增 速？如何推动全要素生产率的提升？为何要强调提高居民消费率？ 蔡昉：党的二十届四中全会通过的"十五五"规划建议，是从供需两侧来部署的。提高全要素生产率是从 供给侧提出的要求，通过推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of service consumption in China's economic development, highlighting the expected growth in service consumption quality and quantity over the next five years, driven by rising GDP and an expanding middle-income group [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - China's per capita GDP is projected to rise from $10,000 in 2019 to $13,300 in 2024, with per capita service consumption expected to reach 13,000 yuan by 2024 [1]. - Currently, service consumption accounts for approximately 52% of GDP in China, compared to 68.5% in the U.S., indicating significant room for growth [1]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The expansion of service consumption is primarily driven by the demand from a growing middle-income group, which is expected to exceed 800 million people in the next decade [2]. - However, the average daily working hours for employed individuals in China is projected to be 49 hours, which may limit the time available for service consumption, leading to a "crowding out effect" on leisure activities [2]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - There are multiple supply-side constraints affecting service consumption, including insufficient effective supply, a mismatch in supply and demand, and a lack of quality and standards in services [3]. - The integration of technology in traditional service sectors remains shallow, with significant gaps in areas such as telemedicine and smart elderly care [3]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To enhance service consumption, it is recommended to improve overall income levels through employment promotion and social security reforms, as well as to stabilize asset prices and enhance social security systems [4]. - Policy innovation is needed to enrich high-quality service supply, including investment in cultural, tourism, and healthcare services, while also easing market access and breaking local protectionism [4]. Group 5: Standardization and Consumer Protection - There is a need for a systematic approach to developing service consumption standards, involving industry associations and leading enterprises to create a collaborative standard system [5]. - Establishing efficient dispute resolution mechanisms and consumer protection measures is crucial, particularly in high-risk service areas such as home services and education [5].

Core Insights - The upcoming 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) will take place from November 5 to 10 in Shanghai, with participation from 155 countries, regions, and international organizations, showcasing an exhibition area exceeding 367,000 square meters [1][2] - China is projected to have over 800 million middle-income individuals in the next decade, indicating significant market potential [1] - China has maintained its position as the world's second-largest import market for 16 consecutive years, with imports of goods and services expected to exceed $15 trillion during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 1 - The 8th CIIE aims to inject more certainty into the global market amid profound changes in the global landscape [1] - The event will support exhibitors from 37 least developed countries, promoting local specialty products to enter the Chinese market [1] - The CIIE serves as a platform for discussions on trade restructuring, global south cooperation, and multilateralism during the concurrent Hongqiao Forum [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government emphasizes that the door to openness will continue to widen, aiming to expand the global market and enhance shared development mechanisms [2] - The commitment to cooperation and mutual benefit is reaffirmed as a cornerstone of China's economic strategy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is expected to play a crucial role in achieving China's economic development goals during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on technology advancement, wealth accumulation, private investment stimulation, consumption enhancement, and social welfare improvement. Group 1: Role of Capital Market in Economic Development - The capital market should support the development of a modern industrial system and technological advancements, with a target of maintaining over 50% annual growth in AI computing power investments during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - A long-term bull market could lead to a rapid increase in residents' property income, potentially allowing the middle-income group to exceed 400 million people, thus becoming a significant reservoir of wealth [1] Group 2: Stimulating Private Investment - A sustained bull market can act as an accelerator for private investment, as higher market valuations increase companies' willingness to invest, contrasting with the low investment levels seen during previous market downturns [2] Group 3: Enhancing Consumption and Domestic Demand - The capital market is expected to contribute to the construction of a unified market and the expansion of domestic demand, with stock market growth leading to increased consumer spending, potentially adding several trillion yuan to consumption by 2030 [2] Group 4: Improving Social Welfare - The capital market's support is essential for enhancing social welfare, with a goal to increase the proportion of social security spending to GDP from under 10% to 15%-20% during the "15th Five-Year Plan," relying on better investment returns from social security funds [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the significant developments regarding Wahaha, indicating that the Hongsheng Group, controlled by Zong Fuli, will continue to use the "Wahaha" brand in 2026 [1] - Distributors of Wahaha in Shandong have confirmed receiving notifications from Hongsheng Group's sales staff, requiring them to pay deposits to continue selling Wahaha products next year [1] - An internal source from Wahaha Group stated that Zong Fuli has returned to work, acting in the capacity of President of Hongsheng Beverage Group [1] Group 2 - A distributor in Henan reported that they have reached an agreement with the company to continue selling Wahaha products [1] - According to insiders, Yan Xuefeng's position at Hongsheng Beverage Group has been restored, while Zhu Lidan's position remains "pending" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Sam's Club in China is facing challenges due to its large packaging strategy, which may not align with the consumption habits of smaller Chinese households, leading to potential waste and dissatisfaction among members [5][8][10]. Group 1: Sam's Club's Business Model - Sam's Club operates on a membership-based model, offering large quantities of products at lower unit prices, which is effective in the U.S. due to larger household sizes and storage spaces [7][8]. - The club's strategy of bulk purchasing allows it to reduce costs and maintain competitive pricing by leveraging economies of scale [7][8][9]. Group 2: Market Adaptation Challenges - In China, the average household size has decreased from 3.10 in 2010 to 2.62 in 2020, with a significant rise in one-person and two-person households, making bulk purchases less practical [8][9]. - The preference for fresh food and high shopping frequency among Chinese consumers contrasts with Sam's Club's model of infrequent, large purchases [9][10]. Group 3: Target Demographics - Sam's Club's primary customer base consists of urban middle-class consumers, with a significant portion of sales coming from food items, which are harder to consume in bulk [10][12]. - The average annual spending per member at Sam's Club is 14,000 yuan, which is significantly higher than that of other e-commerce platforms, indicating a strong but niche market [10][12]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Perception - The perception of value among members is tied to the quality and uniqueness of products offered, which can be undermined by the introduction of lower-quality items [12][13]. - The distance to Sam's Club locations and the large packaging sizes create barriers for frequent visits, leading to potential over-purchasing and waste [15][16]. Group 5: Marketing and Social Media Influence - Sam's Club has successfully leveraged social media to create a buzz around its products, appealing to younger consumers seeking a taste of middle-class lifestyle [12][13]. - The emergence of a "splitting and reselling" market for bulk items reflects the mismatch between Sam's Club's offerings and the needs of smaller households [12][13].