欧元兑美元涨0.1%，报1.1235。媒体报道称德国新任总理弗里德里希·默茨和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普一 致认为贸易争端应迅速解决，并讨论了两国密切合作的必要性。根据德国总理办公室周四晚间发布的声 明，自周二上任以来与特朗普首次通话时，默茨还强调了德国对乌克兰的坚定支持。他明确表示德国支 持特朗普为推动结束俄乌战争所付出的努力，特朗普则祝贺默茨当选德国总理。 ...

泽连斯基与川普梵蒂冈会晤后，共和党联邦参议员格林厄姆表示："这场战争是由普京的野蛮入侵造成的，对普京领导下的俄罗斯的进一步制裁，我已获 得近60名两党议员的一致通过"。60名议员就意味着该项法案可以提交表决。 此前格雷厄姆提议的对俄罗斯二级制裁，即对购买俄罗斯能源国家征收500%的关税，获得两党各自25名议员的联署，这当然是配合川普对俄罗斯二级制 裁的威胁，而不是许多川黑解读的共和党内部反对川普的乌克兰政策。 实际上，现在尽快结束乌克兰战争，是共和党主流和部分民主党的共识。 卢比奥重申，俄乌战争没有军事解决方案，和平只能通过谈判实现，双方必须作出妥协。 这个制裁的厉害之处在于，在美俄仅剩下几十亿美元的贸易额度之外，凭空制造一个杠杆，因为这所剩的贸易额加100倍的关税都没有意义，最多两国脱 钩断链断交。 但二级制裁的威力在于，让俄罗斯和美国都有贸易的国家二选一，诸如印度巴西南非土耳其中亚国家这些俄罗斯相对友好的国家，自然要施加影响力给俄 罗斯：别逼我们，二选一的话你知道的，能源世界很多个国家卖，但美国市场，只有一家。 当地时间4月27日，美国国务卿卢比奥接受NBC采访时，再次警告乌俄双方，若无法尽快达成和平协议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices in 2023, from 620 CNY per gram to a peak of 836 CNY per gram, has sparked a nationwide investment trend in gold, reminiscent of the "golden aunt" phenomenon in 2013, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [2] Historical Context of Gold Price Surges First Phase (1970-1980) - Gold prices surged from 35 USD to 850 USD, marking a 2300% increase following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [4] - This phase led to global central banks adjusting their foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold purchases and challenging the dollar's dominance [5] - Gold production entered an expansion cycle, with countries like South Africa and Russia ramping up mining activities [5] - The oil crisis and high inflation positioned gold as a key asset against currency devaluation [5] - The Federal Reserve was compelled to adopt aggressive interest rate hikes, reaching 20%, to curb inflation, which ultimately ended the gold bull market but initiated the development of modern financial derivatives like gold futures [5] Second Phase (2008-2011) - Following the 2008 financial crisis, gold experienced a second bull market with a 166% increase [7] - The demand for gold as a safe haven led to the democratization of investment, exemplified by the rise of gold ETFs and regular central bank gold purchases [7] - The consumer market saw structural changes, with high gold prices driving a shift towards lightweight jewelry and innovations in gold leasing and collateral financing [7] Third Phase (2018-Present) - The current bull market, driven by geopolitical tensions and policy conflicts, has seen gold prices rise over 100% from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Increased market volatility and speculative trading in futures markets have been observed, with COMEX gold futures premiums reaching 60 USD per ounce and physical inventory surging by 18.6 million ounces in a month [9] - Competition from alternative assets has become more pronounced, with significant growth in platinum orders and a 30% increase in sales of K-gold and silver jewelry in China [9] - Fluctuations in monetary policy have led to a shift in the correlation between gold and U.S. equities, reflecting gold's dual role as a safe haven and a risk asset [9]

美国白宫：特朗普认为俄罗斯想结束乌克兰战争。 ...

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold prices are experiencing a short-term upward trend, currently trading at $3025.50 per ounce, with a 0.26% increase from the opening price of $3017.50 per ounce [1][3]. Group 1: COMEX Gold Market Analysis - As of the latest trading session, COMEX gold reached a high of $3025.70 per ounce and a low of $3010.80 per ounce [1][3]. - The resistance levels for gold are identified between $3075 and $3085, while support levels are noted between $2984 and $2994 [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - Following discussions between the US and Russia in Riyadh, Ukraine officials indicated that further talks between US and Ukrainian officials are expected, focusing on halting remote attacks on energy and civilian infrastructure [3]. - The White House aims to achieve a ceasefire agreement by April 20, although significant differences in positions between the parties may delay this timeline [3]. - European Central Bank board member Escrivá highlighted that the downside risks to the Eurozone economic outlook are greater than the upside risks, emphasizing the need for caution in economic predictions [3].

春节后第三周市场继续全线上涨，沪深300指数涨幅1.00%，上证综指周涨幅0.97%，中证500指 数周涨幅1.84%。市场在我们节前最后一个交易日全面空翻多信号后连续第三周中阳线上涨。行业方 面六维度行业多头组合与空头组合今年以来累计收益差已达12%，上周趋势动量策略的通信行业单周 上涨7.2%，排名30个中信一级行业首位。 基本面上，美国开始背弃俄乌战争中的欧洲利益。 国内方面，中央时隔6年再度开启民营企业家 座谈会释放积极信号， 从当前中美关系、国内经济状态等维度对比，当前与2018年11月都具备一定 可比性，而2019年开启的经济与股市的逆转也是当前时点值得期待的 ，虽然2月20日的央行LPR利率 继续维持不变低于预期，但来自海外资金的做多热情依旧将A股继续推升，中美竞争中的美国每一个 退全球化倾向都可能转化为一份做多中国的力量，不宜单边悲观；海外方面，上周重点提到的美国快 速推进俄乌战争中止的步伐快速推进，2月 20日已开始施压乌克兰以资源换和平的方案，并进一步绕 开欧洲盟友利益，结合美国国内政府效率部先后对美国国际开发署、中情局、国防部的一系列人员裁 撤与变更， 特朗普上任1个月后其执政理念进一步 ...