每经记者 岳楚鹏 郑雨航 每经编辑 易启江 王嘉琦 2025年4月，特朗普对美联储的独立性发起挑战，多次暗示可能将现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）免职。 太和智库高级研究员、中国现代国际关系研究院前副院长王在邦向《每日经济新闻》记者（简称每经记者）表示，特朗普宣称罢免鲍威尔，迅速向市场传 递一个美元要"完蛋"的信号，引起金融市场恐慌。美联储丧失独立性是推倒美元霸权的第一张多米诺骨牌，相当于投向美元信用的一枚核弹。 美联储的独立性自1913年成立以来便是美国金融体系的核心原则，若特朗普强行罢免鲍威尔，将首次打破这一百年传统，使美联储沦为政治工具，削弱其 专业性和公信力。 1 独立性是美联储的立身之本 4月17日，特朗普称鲍威尔"玩弄政治""越早走人越好"，并放言"如果我想让他走人，他很快就得走"。 4月21日，特朗普还称鲍威尔是"太迟先生""一个大失败者"，并警告称，如果鲍威尔不马上降息，美国经济将出现放缓。 美国总统和美联储主席的冲突，并不是今天才存在的，而是从美联储创立之初就根植在政府和美联储之间。 | | | 历史上总统向美联储施压案例和最终结果 | | | 170 | | -- ...

实际上，只有当社会公众充分理解了美联储的行动目标及行动逻辑的时候；只有当普通百姓充分知晓了 美联储正在做什么以及为什么要这样做的时候，货币政策才能真正有效地发挥作用。我首先简要介绍一 下当前的经济形势与货币政策前景。 美国贸易政策所带来的不确定性空前上升 美联储的货币政策目标是充分就业和价格稳定，长期以来，我们坚定不移地致力于完成美国国会赋予我 们的双重使命，即实现充分就业，保持物价稳定。尽管当前世界充满了不确定性，美国经济面临下行风 险，但整体看经济状况依然良好。最近公布的一系列数据都表明，美国经济增长势头稳固，劳动力市场 基本平衡。虽然通货膨胀率仍然高于2%的目标，但已经非常接近这一水平了。 由于近几年以来美国经济一直保持较快增长，有不少机构和学者预测，经济回调已经很难避免。今年美 国经济增长速度或将明显放缓。2025年第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)的初步数据将于本月晚些时候发 布，估计会有一些经济增速放缓的"硬数据"。与此同时，最近对家庭和企业的调查结果显示，美国经济 正在发生变化，增长前景不容乐观。美国政府最近出台的新政，尤其是贸易政策所带来的不确定性空前 上升。我们正在密切关注这种"硬数据"与"软预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The labor market has effectively reached full employment according to the Federal Reserve's Bostic [1] Group 1 - The statement indicates a strong labor market, suggesting potential stability in economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell's leadership, highlighting the need for the Fed to resist the temptation to lower interest rates in response to market volatility, despite external pressures and past mistakes [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Challenges - The Federal Reserve is described as the "unluckiest" in history, facing significant external shocks since the COVID-19 pandemic, including trade policy impacts and internal conflicts [3]. - The Fed's credibility has been undermined by past misjudgments, particularly regarding inflation, and its political independence is now at risk [3][5]. - Major Wall Street banks have adjusted their economic forecasts, raising inflation expectations and predicting a higher unemployment rate, indicating the Fed's policy dilemma in balancing employment and price stability [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Dilemmas - The Fed's current policy-making is marked by uncertainty, with conflicting signals regarding interest rate adjustments in response to rising unemployment and inflation [5][6]. - Market participants expect the Fed to lower interest rates multiple times this year, reflecting a historical pattern of the Fed responding to market volatility with easing measures [5][6]. - The persistent high inflation poses a significant challenge for the Fed, complicating its ability to address potential unemployment increases effectively [6]. Group 3: Recommendations for the Federal Reserve - The article suggests that the Fed must adopt a more humble approach to avoid repeating past mistakes in analysis, forecasting, and policy design [6]. - It is recommended that the Fed prioritize controlling inflation over addressing unemployment when both factors are moving in an unfavorable direction [6].