Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has learned from the post-pandemic inflation surge and is better prepared to handle future economic shocks [1] - The Monetary Policy Committee has gained significant insights into economic activity, corporate pricing behavior, and the evolution of inflation expectations during periods of high inflation and economic volatility [1] Summary by Categories - **Economic Understanding** - The Reserve Bank has developed a deeper understanding of structural drivers of inflation and supply shocks [1] - Enhanced use of high-frequency data allows for more timely and precise monitoring of economic conditions [1] - **Policy Tools** - New tools have been developed for estimating neutral interest rates and conducting scenario analysis [1] - These improvements ensure that the Monetary Policy Committee can maintain price stability while effectively navigating future economic shocks [1]

周四公布的数据预计显示，8月核心CPI年率将升至3.1%。这一美联储偏爱的通胀指标在7月同比上涨 2.9%。在如此通胀水平下放宽政策，堪称罕见之举。 当然，美联储去年底曾在核心CPI更高（约3.3%）时降息，但该举措随即引发了争议——失业率并未如 美联储官员警告般上升，长期国债收益率反而攀升。若要追溯本轮降息周期前美联储在核心PCE通胀 3%时放宽政策的先例，需回到1990年代初，即美联储非正式采纳2%目标之前。 那是一个经济环境截然不同的时代：互联网尚未普及，智能手机不存在，"apps"在足球运动员数据中还 是"出场次数"的缩写。因此，美联储一年内第二次在核心通胀高达3%时放宽政策，堪称重大事件—— 这或许标志着近几十年的经济正统观念正面临考验或颠覆。 暴风雨前的平静 尽管通胀仍徘徊在3%左右，较官方目标高出整整一个百分点，但市场普遍预期美联储下周将降息。这 一局面引发了路透社专栏作家Jamie McGeever的质疑：2%通胀目标是否仍具可行性？ 高通胀预期时代 学术研究表明，消费者在预测通胀方面最不准确，但政策制定者长期不愿忽视其影响。当前，2%已不 在消费者的通胀预期范围内。 纽约联储周一调查显示，8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey maintains its medium-term inflation target at 24% for the end of 2025, despite a significant drop in annual inflation to 33.5% in July from a peak of 75.5% in May of the previous year [1][4] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Central Bank of Turkey has restarted interest rate cuts, lowering the benchmark rate by 300 basis points to 43% in July 2023, with expectations that it may drop to 36.2% by the end of the year [1][2] - The Central Bank emphasizes a continued tight monetary policy until price stability is achieved, as domestic demand is slowing and the deflationary effects from weakened demand are increasing [1][3] - The core inflation indicators have shown a temporary rise due to regular price adjustments in the service sector, particularly in housing, hotels, and dining [3][4] Group 2: Economic Growth and External Factors - The current account deficit was approximately 1.3% of GDP in the second quarter, with expectations that it will remain below long-term averages in 2025, although energy prices and global trade policies pose potential risks [2] - Turkey's economic growth is projected to be 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, which is lower than the previous quarter's growth of 3% [3] - The International Monetary Fund highlights that Turkey's inflation rate remains high and poses challenges to economic growth and financial stability, with structural pressures still unresolved [4]

Core Insights - In July, prices of grains, oils, and subsidiary food products in Zibo City remained stable, while meat prices experienced a slight decline, and vegetable prices showed more increases than decreases [1] Group 1: Grain and Oil Prices - In July, the average price of medium wheat was 1.19 yuan per 500 grams, up 0.85% month-on-month; medium corn also averaged 1.19 yuan per 500 grams, up 1.71%; special flour averaged 2.24 yuan per 500 grams, up 0.45%; peanut oil (5 liters) averaged 146.69 yuan, unchanged from the previous month; granulated sugar averaged 5.50 yuan per 500 grams, unchanged; and refined iodized salt averaged 2.07 yuan per 500 grams, unchanged [2] Group 2: Meat and Egg Prices - In July, the average price of lean pork was 15.51 yuan per 500 grams, down 1.02% month-on-month; five-spice pork averaged 14.36 yuan per 500 grams, down 2.18%; boneless hind leg meat averaged 13.96 yuan per 500 grams, down 1.55%; and rib average price was 19.01 yuan per 500 grams, down 0.99%; lamb averaged 34.57 yuan per 500 grams, down 1.37%; while the average price of white strip chicken was 8.94 yuan per 500 grams, down 1.43% [3] - The average price of eggs in the market was 3.43 yuan per 500 grams, up 0.29%, while supermarket eggs averaged 3.51 yuan per 500 grams, down 0.85% [3] Group 3: Vegetable Prices - In July, the vegetable prices in Zibo City showed more increases than decreases, with 14 out of 17 monitored vegetable prices rising; the main reasons for the price increases included adverse weather conditions affecting growth and increased costs for harvesting and storage [4] Group 4: Metal and Fertilizer Prices - In July, the average price of ammonium bicarbonate was 0.80 yuan per kilogram, down 1.24%; diammonium phosphate averaged 4.07 yuan per kilogram, unchanged; potassium chloride averaged 3.15 yuan per kilogram, down 2.17%; and urea averaged 2.02 yuan per kilogram, down 0.49%; meanwhile, copper averaged 79,581.67 yuan per ton, up 1.15% [5] Group 5: Fuel Prices - In July, the maximum retail prices for fuel were set at 7.22 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 7.75 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, 6.82 yuan for 0-octane diesel, and 7.22 yuan for -10-octane diesel [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upward risk to price stability has diminished, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [1] - As economic growth slows, a gradual reduction in interest rates is deemed appropriate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upward risks to price stability have diminished according to Federal Reserve Governor Bowman [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is observing a reduction in inflationary pressures, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy in the future [1] - Economic indicators suggest that the labor market remains strong, which could influence future interest rate decisions [1] - The overall economic outlook is showing signs of stabilization, which may lead to a more favorable environment for investment [1]

Core Insights - The labor market is showing increasing signs of weakness according to Federal Reserve Governor Bowman [1] - The upward risks to price stability have diminished [1] Labor Market - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman highlighted that the labor market is exhibiting signs of growing fragility [1] Price Stability - There has been a noted reduction in the upward risks associated with price stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) emphasizes that Sri Lanka's monetary policy should remain cautious and prioritize price stability [1] Group 1 - The IMF suggests that maintaining a prudent monetary policy is essential for Sri Lanka's economic stability [1] - The focus on price stability is critical to ensure sustainable economic growth in the country [1]

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain the deposit facility rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, aligning with market expectations [1][2] - Following the decision, traders maintained their bets on ECB rates, anticipating a further rate cut of 22 basis points by 2025 [1] - The ECB is committed to ensuring inflation stabilizes at the medium-term target of 2%, with monetary policy decisions to be made based on data assessments [1] Interest Rate Policy - The deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [2] Asset Purchase Programs - The Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) portfolios are being reduced at a steady and predictable pace, with no reinvestment of principal from maturing securities [3] - The ECB is prepared to adjust all policy tools to ensure inflation stability at the 2% target and maintain the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission [3] - The Transmission Protection Instrument is available to address unreasonable and chaotic market dynamics that threaten effective monetary policy transmission across Eurozone countries [3]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of central bank independence in achieving price stability goals [1]