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Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant decline, with Bitcoin dropping to its lowest level since April 2025, reflecting a broader trend of falling prices across various digital assets [1][4]. Market Performance - Bitcoin fell to a low of $75,719 before recovering slightly to $79,000, marking a daily decline of 2.58% [1]. - Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies like SOL and Dogecoin saw declines exceeding 10%, with Ethereum down 9.24% and SOL down 9.95% [4]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies decreased by approximately $111 billion over the past 24 hours, with over 420,000 liquidations amounting to $2.566 billion [5]. Investor Sentiment - There is a notable lack of sustained buying interest in Bitcoin, raising questions about its role in asset allocation as both a trend-following and inflation-hedging asset [7]. - Despite favorable market conditions for Bitcoin, such as a weakening dollar and rising gold prices, the cryptocurrency has not attracted significant investment [6][7]. Regulatory Environment - The delay in the implementation of new regulatory structures for the U.S. cryptocurrency market has further diminished investor interest in digital assets [6][7]. Geopolitical Factors - Tensions between Israel and Iran may also be influencing Bitcoin's price, with analysts noting extremely low retail interest in the asset [7]. - Recent comments from U.S. President Trump regarding negotiations with Iran and military posturing in the region have added to the uncertainty in the market [8].

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn on February 1, with Bitcoin dropping below $80,000 and Ethereum falling over 10% [1][4] - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies decreased by approximately $111 billion in the past 24 hours, with over 400,000 investors facing liquidations amounting to around $2.5 billion, primarily in Bitcoin and Ethereum [4] - Bitcoin has shown little response to market changes that would typically be favorable, such as a weakening dollar and rising gold prices, indicating a lack of investor interest in digital assets [4] Group 2 - The absence of sustained buying pressure has led to renewed skepticism regarding Bitcoin's role in asset allocation, as it struggles to fulfill its perceived functions of trend following and hedging against currency devaluation [4] - Traditional safe-haven investments, such as precious metals and cash, continue to attract more capital than cryptocurrencies, further diminishing interest in Bitcoin [4] - Analysts suggest that retail interest in Bitcoin is at an extremely low level, with trading volumes expected to remain subdued for another one to two quarters [4]

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（来源：吴说） Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 在采访中表示，在未来 20 年内，比特币价格有望达到约 650 万美元。 他指出，当前加密市场正处于熊市底部后期阶段，短期内比特币或在 7.5 万至 10 万美元区间震荡，但 并不改变其长期看涨判断。他认为，比特币在 2025 年避免更大跌幅，主要得益于企业与 ETF 的持续买 入；同时，黄金上涨反映了市场对法币贬值与资产没收风险的担忧，这一趋势长期将利好比特币。 他透露，部分央行已开始就比特币进行初步研究，但真正配置仍需 10–20 年。其长期价格预测基于全球 债务扩张、货币超发与比特币数字黄金属性，而非短期采用率变化，并认为 2026 年整体基本面依然向 好。（CoinDesk） ...

RT BitMart 币市 (@BitMart_zh)🆕BitMart《币市观察局》× 神隐 Alvin：极致风控下的加密生存哲学本期嘉宾：🎙️ Alvin（神隐） @alvinnn666 ｜神隐社区创办人，9年币圈老韭菜，合约重度患者栏目主持：🎙️ yuanyuan @cryptoyuanyuan ｜BitMart Marketing VP📖 本期简介：在 Web3 这个充满财富幻觉与叙事噪音的市场里，Alvin 更像是一个始终保持高度风险意识的少数派。他从不掩饰自己对金钱与成功的渴望，也不把自己的经历包装成“运气与天赋的奇迹”。从草根出身到成为一名长期活跃在市场里的交易员，他所依赖的，并不是一把定生死的赌性，而是一套近乎严苛的人生与资产风控体系。这套体系的目标只有一个：任何一场黑天鹅，都只能带走他的一部分资产，而不是全部人生。💬本期对话重点围绕：🔹草根出身者对“安全感”的理解，与进入加密市场的真实动机🔹为什么“不能承受归零”，是所有投资与交易策略的前提🔹左侧交易、仓位管理与资产隔离背后的现实考量🔹如何在极端行情、平台风险与舆论压力中持续存活🔹在高压、高波动环境下，如何为人生提前筑起护城河这不是一场关于“如 ...

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在后续的新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔除了谈及美国通胀问题外，没有评论其他话题。根据芝商所（CME）的 FedWatch 工具，在新闻发布会后，市场 预计3月会议后利率保持不变的概率小幅上升至 86%。 此前，鲍威尔受到指控，称他在美联储大楼翻修成本问题上误导了立法者。自去年以来，特朗普一直颇具争议地向这位央行行长施压，要求其降低利率。当 有记者就司法部传票提问时，他仅表示："我没有什么可说的。" 鲍威尔的主席任期将于5月到期。预计特朗普将在下周提名继任者，而新的央行负责人可能会比鲍威尔采取更偏鸽派的政策立场。未来几天的任何相关宣布 都可能对比特币价格产生影响。 CF Benchmarks研究主管Gabe Selby表示："短期内推动比特币上涨的利好因素依然存在，但这些因素越来越偏向政治层面，而非货币政策层面。 如果宣布一 位'影子美联储主席'，并且市场相信这位被提名者既能保持美联储独立性，又能为比当前预期更快的降息建立共识，那么市场预期可能会迅速转变。" 目前加密货币市场正面临一轮极其密集的宏观事件窗口期：随着美联储即将公布最新货币政策声明、美国大型科技企业财报陆续发布、以及围绕美国政府是 否会在1月底前出 ...

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