Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices due to global trade tensions and the impact of liquidity factors, emphasizing that despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to various macroeconomic factors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. on major trade partners has led to increased uncertainty in the global economy, prompting expectations of more monetary easing and fiscal stimulus from various countries [4]. - The market now anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates 4 to 5 times this year, significantly increasing the likelihood of a U.S. recession, which could lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and stimulate demand for gold [4]. - The ongoing trade uncertainties are accelerating the process of de-dollarization globally, which could further enhance the appeal of gold as an alternative currency [4][5]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - Central banks, particularly in developing countries like China, are increasing their gold reserves. As of the end of March, China's gold reserves stood at 73.7 million ounces, up from 73.61 million ounces at the end of February, indicating a sustained bullish outlook on gold [5]. - The article suggests that the unexpected trade tensions may lead to a more significant accumulation of gold by central banks as they seek to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Despite short-term fluctuations in gold prices, the article advocates for a long-term investment strategy in gold assets, including physical gold and gold ETFs, which offer good liquidity and low fees [6]. - The potential for greater elasticity in gold stocks is highlighted, as they are expected to catch up with gold price increases, making them a viable investment option [6].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has been fluctuating around the $2900 per ounce mark, with potential to reach $3000 per ounce, driven by global economic and political uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased its gold reserves for four consecutive months since November 2024, holding 2289.53 tons as of February 2025, with a modest increase of 4.98 tons in February [3][4]. - The PBOC's gold purchases are influenced by the need to optimize international reserve structure, as the gold reserve proportion in China's official reserves is only 5.5%, significantly lower than the global average of around 15% [4][6]. - Other central banks globally are also showing interest in gold purchases, although the pace has slowed, with a net purchase of 18 tons in January 2025, down from the previous year [6][7]. Group 2: Future Gold Price Predictions - Analysts predict that the international gold price may reach a new high of $3100 per ounce within the year, supported by ongoing global uncertainties and expected inflows into overseas gold ETFs [2][8]. - The current fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to U.S. economic policy uncertainties and potential recession risks, with short-term price movements expected between $2870 and $2950 per ounce [8][9]. - Long-term investment in gold is considered valuable due to its low correlation with other assets and the protective cushion provided by fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [10].