财通证券指出，在全球贸易博弈持续且地缘政治长期紧张的背景下，黄金的配置价值更加凸显，看好中 长期黄金上行空间。建议关注有产量增长和业绩释放的相关标的。 民生证券指出，美欧关税谈判落地，美国将对欧盟产品征收15%进口关税，低于特朗普威胁的30%税 率，中美同意延长关税休战期90天，全球贸易摩擦风险有所降低。美国7月非农数据远不及预期，同时 5-6月新增就业大幅下修25.8万人，9月降息预期增强。叠加央行持续购金趋势不变，看好金价中枢抬 升；白银因其工业属性以及补涨驱动下，价格屡创新高。中长期看，央行购买黄金+美元信用弱化为主 线，持续看好金价中枢上移。 有色金属板块今日小幅走强，赤峰黄金、金天钛业、西部黄金等涨幅居前。 华鑫证券指出，虽然美联储议息会议没有降息，但是内部反对不降息的声音开始显现。此外，非农数据 大幅低于预期，年内降息预期大幅提升，贵金属价格上行动力再次增强。 ...

Group 1 - Cambodia successfully signed a trade agreement with the United States just before the expiration of Trump's tariff grace period, marking a significant economic move for the small nation [1][5] - The agreement is crucial for Cambodia, as the U.S. market accounts for 40% of its total exports, primarily in garments and footwear, making the potential 49% tariff pressure unbearable [5][8] - The deal requires Cambodia to enhance scrutiny over the origin of exported goods, which poses a challenge since 65% of its garment materials come from China, effectively limiting its supply chain options [7][8] Group 2 - On the same day, the Trump administration made concessions to China by lifting restrictions on exports of key technologies, including aircraft engines and chip design software, indicating a complex negotiation strategy [10][11] - The U.S. concessions appear to be a response to domestic pressures from energy and technology sectors, aiming to stabilize its own economic interests while managing trade relations with China [11][15] - The new tariff notifications sent to ten countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 70%, signal a potential disruption in the global trade system, particularly affecting Southeast Asian nations [12][13] Group 3 - The European Union is preparing retaliatory measures against U.S. goods, which could lead to significant costs for European automotive manufacturers if negotiations fail [13] - China's response includes extending anti-dumping measures against the EU and accelerating the development of its domestic aircraft engine, indicating a strategic pivot in its trade approach [13][15] - The overall trade landscape is characterized by a lack of clear winners, as the intertwined global supply chains make it difficult for any party to emerge unscathed from the ongoing trade tensions [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, highlighting China's firm opposition to U.S. tariffs and the broader implications for global trade dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Strategy - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" are characterized as a gamble, with a sudden increase of 10% tariffs on all trade partners and a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, aiming to reshape global trade rules through unilateral actions [4]. - The U.S. strategy involves a "divide and conquer" approach, attempting to isolate trade partners and force them into unequal agreements, as evidenced by the announcement of potential agreements with select countries while sidelining others [4][6]. - The European Union faces a dilemma, with leaders warning against accepting unequal agreements while preparing for potential high tariffs [4]. Group 2: China’s Response and Strategy - China has established a counter-strategy, including significant price reductions in semiconductor manufacturing and strengthening regional trade agreements, such as the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area [9]. - The Chinese government emphasizes its control over strategic resources, particularly rare earth elements, which are crucial for U.S. military applications, indicating a strategic leverage point in the trade conflict [7][11]. - China's response mechanisms have evolved, with quicker reaction times and a more sophisticated array of countermeasures, including tariffs and legal actions through the WTO [11]. Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - The article highlights the shifting trade landscape, with ASEAN's trade with China surpassing that with the U.S., indicating a realignment of global trade relationships [9]. - The establishment of a cross-border payment system in RMB and various currency swap agreements signifies China's efforts to enhance its financial influence globally [9]. - The ongoing negotiations and strategic maneuvers reflect a broader struggle for dominance in global trade, with both nations seeking to secure their interests amid rising tensions [3][9].

Group 1 - The Trump administration is facing unprecedented trade challenges, with the 125% tariffs on China not yielding the desired results, and the 90-day tariff suspension for over 70 countries approaching its deadline [1][3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary confirmed that Trump is considering extending the tariff suspension, indicating that over 70 countries may temporarily avoid high tariff impacts [1][3] - China's strong stance in the negotiations has led to significant pressure on the U.S. from other economies, highlighting a profound shift in the global trade landscape due to China's strategic determination [1][3] Group 2 - Trump's tariff policy has undergone dramatic reversals, initially announcing equal tariffs on over 70 countries, only to suspend them shortly after while maintaining punitive tariffs on China [3][6] - The U.S. has struggled to achieve concessions from China during negotiations, with other countries, except the UK, failing to reach agreements, revealing the failure of the U.S. strategy to isolate China [3][6] - The U.S. is now likely to extend the tariff suspension for countries engaging in "good faith negotiations," although this is perceived as a unilateral demand that faces widespread resistance [6][8] Group 3 - China's rare earth exports have become a critical bargaining chip, with the U.S. heavily reliant on China for 90% of its rare earth needs, indicating potential severe impacts if exports are fully banned [6][8] - The global trade system is witnessing new trends, with China's advantages and multilateral cooperation strategies effectively countering U.S. tariff measures, leading to unprecedented challenges for U.S. unilateralism [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices due to global trade tensions and the impact of liquidity factors, emphasizing that despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to various macroeconomic factors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. on major trade partners has led to increased uncertainty in the global economy, prompting expectations of more monetary easing and fiscal stimulus from various countries [4]. - The market now anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates 4 to 5 times this year, significantly increasing the likelihood of a U.S. recession, which could lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and stimulate demand for gold [4]. - The ongoing trade uncertainties are accelerating the process of de-dollarization globally, which could further enhance the appeal of gold as an alternative currency [4][5]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - Central banks, particularly in developing countries like China, are increasing their gold reserves. As of the end of March, China's gold reserves stood at 73.7 million ounces, up from 73.61 million ounces at the end of February, indicating a sustained bullish outlook on gold [5]. - The article suggests that the unexpected trade tensions may lead to a more significant accumulation of gold by central banks as they seek to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Despite short-term fluctuations in gold prices, the article advocates for a long-term investment strategy in gold assets, including physical gold and gold ETFs, which offer good liquidity and low fees [6]. - The potential for greater elasticity in gold stocks is highlighted, as they are expected to catch up with gold price increases, making them a viable investment option [6].