Group 1 - Cambodia successfully signed a trade agreement with the United States just before the expiration of Trump's tariff grace period, marking a significant economic move for the small nation [1][5] - The agreement is crucial for Cambodia, as the U.S. market accounts for 40% of its total exports, primarily in garments and footwear, making the potential 49% tariff pressure unbearable [5][8] - The deal requires Cambodia to enhance scrutiny over the origin of exported goods, which poses a challenge since 65% of its garment materials come from China, effectively limiting its supply chain options [7][8] Group 2 - On the same day, the Trump administration made concessions to China by lifting restrictions on exports of key technologies, including aircraft engines and chip design software, indicating a complex negotiation strategy [10][11] - The U.S. concessions appear to be a response to domestic pressures from energy and technology sectors, aiming to stabilize its own economic interests while managing trade relations with China [11][15] - The new tariff notifications sent to ten countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 70%, signal a potential disruption in the global trade system, particularly affecting Southeast Asian nations [12][13] Group 3 - The European Union is preparing retaliatory measures against U.S. goods, which could lead to significant costs for European automotive manufacturers if negotiations fail [13] - China's response includes extending anti-dumping measures against the EU and accelerating the development of its domestic aircraft engine, indicating a strategic pivot in its trade approach [13][15] - The overall trade landscape is characterized by a lack of clear winners, as the intertwined global supply chains make it difficult for any party to emerge unscathed from the ongoing trade tensions [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, highlighting China's firm opposition to U.S. tariffs and the broader implications for global trade dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Strategy - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" are characterized as a gamble, with a sudden increase of 10% tariffs on all trade partners and a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, aiming to reshape global trade rules through unilateral actions [4]. - The U.S. strategy involves a "divide and conquer" approach, attempting to isolate trade partners and force them into unequal agreements, as evidenced by the announcement of potential agreements with select countries while sidelining others [4][6]. - The European Union faces a dilemma, with leaders warning against accepting unequal agreements while preparing for potential high tariffs [4]. Group 2: China’s Response and Strategy - China has established a counter-strategy, including significant price reductions in semiconductor manufacturing and strengthening regional trade agreements, such as the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area [9]. - The Chinese government emphasizes its control over strategic resources, particularly rare earth elements, which are crucial for U.S. military applications, indicating a strategic leverage point in the trade conflict [7][11]. - China's response mechanisms have evolved, with quicker reaction times and a more sophisticated array of countermeasures, including tariffs and legal actions through the WTO [11]. Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - The article highlights the shifting trade landscape, with ASEAN's trade with China surpassing that with the U.S., indicating a realignment of global trade relationships [9]. - The establishment of a cross-border payment system in RMB and various currency swap agreements signifies China's efforts to enhance its financial influence globally [9]. - The ongoing negotiations and strategic maneuvers reflect a broader struggle for dominance in global trade, with both nations seeking to secure their interests amid rising tensions [3][9].

Group 1 - The Trump administration is facing unprecedented trade challenges, with the 125% tariffs on China not yielding the desired results, and the 90-day tariff suspension for over 70 countries approaching its deadline [1][3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary confirmed that Trump is considering extending the tariff suspension, indicating that over 70 countries may temporarily avoid high tariff impacts [1][3] - China's strong stance in the negotiations has led to significant pressure on the U.S. from other economies, highlighting a profound shift in the global trade landscape due to China's strategic determination [1][3] Group 2 - Trump's tariff policy has undergone dramatic reversals, initially announcing equal tariffs on over 70 countries, only to suspend them shortly after while maintaining punitive tariffs on China [3][6] - The U.S. has struggled to achieve concessions from China during negotiations, with other countries, except the UK, failing to reach agreements, revealing the failure of the U.S. strategy to isolate China [3][6] - The U.S. is now likely to extend the tariff suspension for countries engaging in "good faith negotiations," although this is perceived as a unilateral demand that faces widespread resistance [6][8] Group 3 - China's rare earth exports have become a critical bargaining chip, with the U.S. heavily reliant on China for 90% of its rare earth needs, indicating potential severe impacts if exports are fully banned [6][8] - The global trade system is witnessing new trends, with China's advantages and multilateral cooperation strategies effectively countering U.S. tariff measures, leading to unprecedented challenges for U.S. unilateralism [8]

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 黑貔貅俱乐部 来源：雪球 近期美国对全球主要的贸易伙伴加征对等关税 ， 带动全球资产大波动 ， 伦敦金也从3166美元 回落到目前的3000美元附近 。 作为传统的避险资产 ， 黄金本次的回调有多重原因 ， 这里面最 核心的是还是流动性因素 。 以下文章来源于黑貔貅俱乐部 ，作者黑貔貅 黑貔貅俱乐部 . 宏观经济 ，亮点行业，大类资产配置 第一 ， 从中期来看全球经济在对等关税下影响下面临更大的不确定性 ， 这会推动更多的国家进 行货币正常宽松 ， 也会带动更多的财政刺激 。 以美国为例 ， 此前市场预计美联储降息2次 ， 但是经过本轮美股的暴跌 ， 市场对美国经济的预期迅速转入 ， 认为美国今年会进入衰退可能性 大幅度增加 ， 从而推动美联储降息4到5次 ， 这在中期会带动美元指数回落 ， 刺激黄金的投资 需求 。 第二 ， 对等关税引发世界贸易巨大的不确定性 ， 全球去美元化进程会加快 ， 反而对黄金形成 更大级别的利好 。 目前全世界无论是商品服务还是贸易结算都是以美元 ， 如果商品跟服务贸易 结 ...