美国国防部长11日称，向洛杉矶部署军队"合法且符合宪法"。他表示，此次向洛杉矶部署军队旨在 维护法律与秩序。 美国国民警卫队指挥官同日表示，在洛杉矶抗议活动中，国民警卫队短暂拘留了平民，但他们很快 就将这些人移交给了执法部门。美国军方官员当天表示，驻扎在洛杉矶的部队已获得授权，在执法人员 到达前可对个人进行临时拘留。 美国加州洛杉矶警察局中央分局11日说，由于抗议活动持续，洛杉矶市中心部分地区将于当晚8时 到次日早6时继续实行宵禁。 美国北方司令部发言人同一天（11日）表示，截至当日上午，被调往洛杉矶地区的700名海军陆战 队员仍在接受训练，目前尚不清楚他们何时会被部署到街头以协助应对抗议活动。 此外，美国芝加哥警方宣布10日在芝加哥的抗议活动中逮捕了17人。芝加哥警察局表示，其中4人 被控重罪，10人面临轻罪指控。 央广网北京6月12日消息 据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，美国洛杉矶警察 局11日称，洛杉矶市中心10日晚有225人被捕，其中203人因未能疏散，17人因违反宵禁，另有3人因持 有枪支，1人因使用致命武器袭击警察，还有1人因向洛杉矶警察局的飞艇发射激光。警方称，有两名洛 杉矶警 ...

宵禁生效后，洛杉矶多条地铁和公交线路涉宵禁区的站点一度临时关闭。洛杉矶警方称，由于多个团体 继续在宵禁区内举行抗议，警方已逮捕数十人。而在过去四天时间内，共逮捕了至少378人。 6月10日，美国洛杉矶的抗议活动进入第五天。当晚，洛杉矶市中心225人被捕。 洛杉矶市长巴斯宣布，为应对破坏和抢劫，从当地时间10日20时到11日6时在洛杉矶市中心部分区域实 施宵禁。 与此同时，在美国其他一些城市的抗议活动仍在蔓延，并出现升级。 据当地媒体报道，宵禁生效后，洛杉矶多条地铁和公交线路涉宵禁区的站点一度临时关闭。洛杉矶警方 称，由于多个团体继续在宵禁区内举行抗议，警方已逮捕数十人。而在过去四天时间内，共逮捕了至少 378人。 10日白天，部分抗议者继续聚集在洛杉矶市的联邦拘留中心周边区域，抗议联邦执法人员搜捕非法移 民。 抗议者 卡伦：一些人被逮捕时正在工作，还有一些人在学校里，在毕业典礼上被抓。这很可悲，令人 心碎。我们没有安全感，我们是在为那些无法为自己发声的孩子们抗争，为他们的父母抗争。 抗议者 南希：我们的城市迫切需要移民，我们刚刚经历了毁灭性山火，失去了1.4万栋建筑。而回头看 看这座城市的建设者，正是移民群体 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is undergoing a profound structural change driven by the Trump administration's strict immigration policies, with May's non-farm payrolls dropping by 696,000, the largest monthly decline since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 [1][3] - The balance of supply and demand in the labor market is being artificially disrupted, leading to a significant reduction in labor supply, particularly affecting labor-intensive sectors such as construction, agriculture, and services [3] - Despite a historically low unemployment rate of 4.2%, only 139,000 new jobs were added in May, indicating a shrinking labor supply rather than an increase in job opportunities [3] Group 2 - The artificial labor shortage is causing multiple economic impacts, including rising wage levels that may exacerbate inflationary pressures, and a long-term reduction in the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that average monthly job growth may remain at 170,000 in 2024 but decline to 90,000 by the end of 2025 and further to 80,000 in 2026, with the "breakeven job growth" needed to maintain stable unemployment potentially dropping to as low as 50,000 per month [3][4] - The structural changes in the labor market present unprecedented policy dilemmas for the Federal Reserve, as tight labor conditions and wage pressures necessitate a more hawkish monetary policy, while the ongoing reduction in economic growth potential requires policy flexibility [4] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding immigration policies complicates economic forecasts, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting net immigration numbers to fall to 2 million and 1.5 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively, significantly lower than the 3.3 million in 2023 [4] - This uncertainty not only affects the labor market but also has broader implications for consumption and investment, potentially impacting the overall economy [4] - Market participants should be cautious of the chain reactions stemming from these policy distortions, as short-term labor shortages may support a stronger dollar, while long-term growth potential reductions could lead to downward pressure on the dollar [4]

Core Viewpoint - The significant changes in the U.S. immigration landscape are distorting the employment market, making it harder for investors and policymakers to accurately assess the actual slowdown in the labor market [1] Group 1: Labor Market Dynamics - A reduction in immigration supply could lead to a tighter labor market, potentially suppressing the rise in unemployment rates, despite being a temporary and artificial effect [1] - Recent data shows a decrease of 696,000 jobs in May, the largest single-month drop since the historic decline at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, with some economists attributing this decline to the Trump administration's immigration crackdown [1][2] Group 2: Employment Growth Metrics - The "breakeven" employment growth value, which indicates the net new jobs needed to keep up with the growth of the working-age population and maintain stable unemployment rates, is declining [4] - Morgan Stanley economists noted that the average monthly "breakeven" employment growth was 210,000 last year, dropping to 170,000 this year, and projected to fall to 90,000 by the end of the year and 80,000 next year [8] - Ryan Sweet from Oxford Economics predicts that due to weak labor supply growth, the "breakeven" employment growth is rapidly approaching 50,000 per month [8] Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - The low unemployment rate may persist but could be due to misleading reasons, as indicated by Sweet [9] - If predictions hold true, monthly job growth in the U.S. may continue to slow without raising the unemployment rate, creating a confusing signal for investors and policymakers [10] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the labor market's stability and low unemployment, but acknowledged the need to examine a broader set of labor market indicators for a more accurate assessment [10] Group 4: Immigration Projections - The Congressional Budget Office projected net immigration to be 2 million this year and 1.5 million next year, down from 3.3 million in 2023, but these estimates may be overly optimistic given the Trump administration's hardline stance on immigration [11] - Morgan Stanley economists have significantly revised their net immigration forecasts down to 800,000 this year and 500,000 next year, suggesting a potential "false" tight labor market with monthly non-farm job growth far below 100,000 [11]

【环球网报道】美国加利福尼亚州洛杉矶爆发的抗议活动和骚乱仍在持续。据美国《华盛顿邮报》报道，美国国土安全部长克丽丝蒂·诺姆当地时间10日指 控墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆"煽动"洛杉矶抗议活动，辛鲍姆同日晚些时候对此予以驳斥。 报道称，诺姆早些时候在白宫对记者说，"辛鲍姆站了出来，煽动在洛杉矶举行更多抗议活动，我谴责她的行为。她不应煽动正在进行的暴力抗议活动。" "我对此（指暴力抗议）一直持反对态度，现在我肩负着重大责任，反对立场更甚以往。与此同时，我们的立场现在和将来都会是捍卫诚实、勤劳的墨西哥 人，他们既为美国经济做出了贡献，也支撑着他们墨西哥家人的生活。"辛鲍姆在帖文中说。 辛鲍姆随后在社交平台X上发帖称，这项指控"完全错误"，并在该帖中附上此前一天她接受记者采访时发表评论的视频。视频中，她谴责暴力行为，并呼吁 洛杉矶的墨西哥社区"以和平的方式行事"。 美国总统特朗普以国家安全为由推行强硬移民政策，再次入主白宫后下令大规模抓捕和驱逐非法移民。美国移民与海关执法局等联邦机构执法人员本月6日 开始在洛杉矶搜捕非法移民，引发抗议和骚乱。与此同时，墨西哥国旗在洛杉矶抗议活动现场飘扬，在美国引发巨大争议。一些美国媒 ...

可以预见的是，大量驱逐非法移民也正冲击美国经济。 美国一场针对非法移民的"搜捕战"，正不断发酵、升级成激烈的街头对峙。 据新华社报道，当地时间8日中午，在洛杉矶市中心联邦执法机构门前的抗议者与部署在该地的国民警 卫队人员发生冲突。国民警卫队人员发射催泪弹和橡皮子弹试图驱散抗议人群，但抗议者越来越多，从 最初数十人增加到1000人以上。 这是一场关于移民问题的三方博弈。据新华社报道，大量加利福尼亚州（以下简称"加州"）民众不满联 邦政府抓捕非法移民，在街头抗议。美国总统特朗普公开称，洛杉矶"被非法移民和犯罪分子侵占"，将 采取一切必要行动"解放"洛杉矶。20余名民主党州长联合发表声明称，特朗普向洛杉矶派遣州国民警卫 队是"令人担忧的权力滥用"，"既无效又危险"。 收紧移民签证、驱逐非法移民，一直是特朗普政府的核心政策议程。然而在美国，合法和非法移民为全 美贡献了近五分之一的劳动力，每年拉动实际GDP增长约0.1个百分点（美国国会预算办公室，即CBO 测算），大肆驱逐移民或将付出惨重的经济代价。 美国经济第一大州成风暴中心 "洛杉矶之乱"的直接导火索，在于美国联邦执法机构在南加州展开严打搜捕非法移民的行动。据央视 ...

以下文章来源于无法可说 ，作者郑渝川hiecy 无法可说 . 一弦一柱思华年。 本文来自微信公众号： 无法可说 ，作者：郑渝川hiecy，题图来自：视觉中国 6 月 8 日凌晨，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体发文，再斥加州政府无能，同时夸赞国民警卫队"表现 出色"。 自 6 月 6 日上午开始，美国移民与海关执法局等联邦机构出动大批执法人员，在 加州 洛杉矶县多地 展开针对非法移民的执法行动。这些行动已连续两天引起大量街头对峙、混乱和冲突。白宫新闻秘书 莱维特 6 月 7 日发表声明说，美国总统特朗普已签署一份备忘录，向洛杉矶部署 2000 名国民警卫队 人员，以协助联邦机构执法人员在加利福尼亚州南部地区展开针对非法移民的大规模搜捕行动。 美国 国防部长赫格塞思 更是宣称， 国防部正 "立即动员"国民警卫队前往洛杉矶，而且，"如果暴力 持续，将动员现役海军陆战队员，他们已经处于高度戒备状态"。 洛杉矶女市长卡伦 ·巴斯 此前 发表声明，对联邦当局突击行动表示强烈谴责。她说，移民为洛杉矶 做出许多贡献，执法人员的行动， "在我们的社区散播恐惧，破坏我们城市的基本安全原则"。被激 怒的加州州长纽森，指责特朗普政府完全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical for Wall Street, with expectations of a slowdown in job growth and potential implications for market sentiment and economic outlook [1][2][4]. Employment Data Expectations - The consensus for the May non-farm payroll report anticipates an increase of 126,000 jobs, a decrease from April's 177,000, and below the three-month average of 155,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [2][6]. - Wage growth is projected to slightly decline year-over-year, with average hourly earnings expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, compared to 0.2% in April, and a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, down from 3.8% [3]. Job Market Indicators - Various leading indicators suggest a trend of slowing employment growth, including a disappointing ADP employment report showing only 37,000 new jobs in May, significantly below the expected 110,000 [7]. - Initial jobless claims rose from 216,000 to 226,000, and continuing claims increased from 1.833 million to 1.919 million, indicating a potential softening in the labor market [7]. Sector-Specific Insights - The leisure and hospitality sector is expected to be a significant drag on overall job growth, with projections of a loss of nearly 40,000 jobs in this area [8]. - Weather conditions in May, particularly higher-than-average rainfall in the East Coast and Southern regions, may have also suppressed hiring in leisure and construction sectors [8]. Impact of Tariffs and Policies - Analysts warn that tariffs may shift from a "tailwind" to a "headwind" for job growth, with affected industries likely to experience some weakness. In the six months leading up to April, these industries added nearly 200,000 jobs, but this trend may have peaked [11]. - The impact of immigration restrictions is expected to manifest in the coming months, potentially leading to a decrease in job growth, although the immediate effects in May are anticipated to be limited [13]. Market Reactions to Employment Data - The market is closely monitoring the non-farm payroll data, with a threshold of 100,000 jobs being a critical psychological level. A figure below this could trigger recession fears and end the current bull market [5][14]. - Goldman Sachs outlines a reaction matrix for the S&P 500 based on job growth figures, indicating that a number below 100,000 could lead to a decline of 2% to 3% in the index [14][18].

新增就业料小幅降温、失业率或将保持稳定 尽管特朗普关税措施导致不确定性增加，但美国劳动力市场总体保持稳定，新增就业料小幅降温。 各先行指标支持就业逐渐放缓的趋势： ADP就业报告较为惨淡，5月仅新增3.7万个职位，远低于预期的11万，为2023年3月以来已 经最低。ADP直言不讳，在强劲开局后，招聘浪潮正在消失。 全球关税谈判前景扑朔迷离，马斯克与特朗普关系破裂公开互撕，一片混乱中华尔街再迎关键考验，今 夜非农就业数据将如期而至。 北京时间6月6日晚20:30，美国劳工统计局（BLS）将公布5月非农就业报告。华尔街基本共识为： 非农就业人数增加12.6万，较4月份的17.7万人降温，这一增幅低于三个月的平均水平15.5 万，而失业率则有望连续第三个月维持在4.2%。 薪资增长同比将小幅回落，平均时薪环比将增长0.3%，4月份为0.2%；工资同比预计增长 3.7%，前值为3.8%，将继续支撑消费者支出。 值得一提的是，分析师的预期范围较为广泛，新增就业在7.5—19万之间，分析认为今年就业增长很大 程度上反映了企业囤积劳动力。关于当下市场关注焦点——关税、DOGE、移民政策，分析认为，关税 对就业增长将转为"逆 ...

美联储戴利：目前尚不清楚移民政策的影响。 ...