Group 1 - LME copper prices increased due to slower-than-expected US job growth in July and a weaker dollar, leading traders to bet on potential Fed rate cuts [1] - As of August 1, LME three-month copper rose by $19.5, or 0.2%, closing at $9,630.5 per ton [2] - The US copper market stabilized after a significant drop, with Comex copper prices recovering by 1.6% to $4.423 per pound, or $9,751 per ton [3] Group 2 - Comex copper inventories surged by 176% from March to July, reaching a 21-year high of 233,977 tons [3] - LME available stocks more than doubled in July, hitting a three-month high of 127,475 tons [4] - The premium of Comex copper over LME prices has limited the outflow of US inventories, with the premium decreasing significantly from historical highs [5] Group 3 - Codelco's El Teniente copper mine is facing reduced copper extraction operations due to an accident, although processing facilities remain operational [5]

Core Insights - The announcement by President Trump to exclude refined copper from a 50% import tariff led to a significant price drop in COMEX copper, with prices falling over 20% within an hour of the announcement [1] - The copper market experienced its second circuit breaker activation in less than a month, indicating high volatility and market sensitivity to tariff announcements [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - COMEX copper prices plummeted by 22% to $4.5030 per pound, equivalent to $9,927 per ton, triggering a rapid liquidation of long positions [1] - The trading halt occurred for two minutes due to the dynamic circuit breaker mechanism, which is activated when price fluctuations exceed ±10% within a rolling 60-minute window [2] Group 2: Tariff Implications - The White House announced that starting August 1, a 50% tariff will be imposed on various imported copper products, while raw copper inputs and scrap copper will be exempt from these tariffs [1] - The premium of COMEX copper over the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark has narrowed significantly from approximately $3,000 per ton to around $10 per ton, reflecting changes in market dynamics since the tariff proposal [2]

美国6月核心资本品订单意外下滑 设备投资动能减弱 金十数据7月25日讯，周五数据显示，6月美国关键资本品新订单意外下降，表明在企业抢在进口关税上 调前提前采购所带来的提振效应消退后，设备投资出现回落。6月，扣除飞机非国防资本耐用品订单月 率（被广泛视为企业支出意愿的风向标）下降0.7%，低于预期的增长0.2%。5月数据上修为增长2.0%。 6月核心资本品出货量增长0.4%，低于5月的0.5%。尽管部分因关税引发的抢购趋势仍在延续，但由于 关税最终水平的不确定性加剧，一些企业开始推迟资本支出计划。标普全球周四调查显示，7月美国制 造业PMI初值自去年12月以来首次陷入萎缩。标普指出，"尽管进口关税带来一定保护作用，但更高的 价格和上升的成本反而成为企业更大的担忧。" ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The low PPI data indicates that enterprises are absorbing part of the impact of tariffs. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and Fed Chairman Powell may be removed. Geopolitical factors are still changeable. Gold and silver are recommended for hedging by buying on dips, and shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels is advised [1][8][9] Summary by Related Contents Macro Data - On July 16, 2025, the US 6 - month PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%, the lowest since January. The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro (2.3 trillion US dollars) budget for the next seven years [1] Futures Market - On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 778.00 yuan/gram, closed at 776.66 yuan/gram, down 0.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 779.28 yuan/gram, up 0.36% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,195.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9,152.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.79% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 764,716 lots, and the open interest was 430,521 lots. The night - session closed at 9,162 yuan/kilogram, up 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] Treasury Yields and Spreads - On July 16, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.50%, up 0.07% from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.58%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Exchange Positions and Volume Changes - On July 16, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 3,078 lots, and short positions decreased by 300 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 330,492 lots, up 14.60% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 7,400 lots, and short positions decreased by 6,340 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 998,507 lots, up 0.78% from the previous trading day [4] ETF Holdings - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 950.79 tons, up 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 14,819.29 tons, down 36.73 tons from the previous trading day [5] Arbitrage Tracking - On July 16, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 12.10 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 598.89 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contract prices was about 84.86, up 0.31% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 87.81, up 1.81% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 27,070 kilograms, down 9.97% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 483,798 kilograms, down 1.22% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,366 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 6,600 kilograms [7]

美国6月PPI环比基本持平，主要受服务成本下滑抑制，表明企业正在吸收至少部分来自进口关税上升的 成本。PPI报告紧随6月CPI数据之后，后者显示更高的关税正逐步传导至包括家居用品、家电和休闲用 品在内的多个类别。尽管今年以来通胀总体温和，但许多经济学家预计，随着更多企业试图抵消更高的 贸易成本，通胀将逐步升温。 ...

分析师：美联储当前的政策僵局可能会持续 金十数据7月15日讯，Alliance Bernstein分析师Eric Winograd表示，最新的通胀数据并未减少关税带来的 不确定性，很可能会让美联储继续观望。他表示，住房价格指数小幅下降表明通胀走低的潜在趋势依然 未变。但一些可能受到进口关税影响的商品，其价格涨幅有所加快。Winograd称："事实上，若不是关 税相关的不确定性，我认为联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会对这一趋势有足够信心，并且已经开始降 息了。"他还表示，在局势更加明朗之前，当前的政策僵局可能会持续。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the negative impact of tariffs, Ericsson's second-quarter earnings exceeded expectations due to increased sales in high-profit countries, rising licensing revenues, and cost reductions [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the second quarter was 45.7 billion Swedish Krona (approximately 4.752 billion USD), surpassing FactSet analysts' forecast of 33.9 billion Swedish Krona [1] - Overall sales in the main network business declined by 5.3% in the first quarter [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Strong growth was observed in the North American market, while the European market showed slight growth [1] - Sales in the Indian market experienced a significant decline, attributed to low levels of network investment in the region [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CEO expressed optimism about continued growth in the Americas and stabilization in Europe [1] - The company noted that future uncertainties may increase, including potential changes in tariffs and broader macroeconomic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government, under President Trump, will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, aimed at revitalizing the domestic metal industry and reversing the decline in U.S. copper market influence [1][5]. Policy Implementation - Specific details regarding the implementation of the copper tariff, such as the method of collection, product scope, and potential supplier exemptions, remain unclear, leaving metal traders awaiting further clarification [3]. - The announcement has already influenced copper futures, which surged to historical highs before slightly retreating, maintaining a 1.40% increase at $5.6200 per pound [3]. Industry Context - The copper tariff is part of a broader series of industrial policies by the Trump administration, which has previously raised tariffs on steel and aluminum, with indications of more industry-specific tariffs in preparation [5]. - The U.S. heavily relies on copper imports, primarily from Chile, Canada, and Mexico, despite copper being the second most used strategic metal by the Department of Defense [5]. - In anticipation of the tariff's impact, U.S. producers and traders are adjusting their supply chains, with some shifting delivery locations to Hawaii and Puerto Rico to shorten shipping times [5]. - Since the initial proposal of the copper tariff in February, U.S. metal imports have reached record highs as traders seek to capitalize on price differences before the tariff takes effect [5].

Group 1 - The UK economy experienced its fastest growth since early 2024, with a GDP increase of 0.7% in Q1 2025, driven by a surge in real estate market activity and manufacturers increasing output in response to US import tariffs [1] - Household spending rose by 0.4%, supported by housing, household goods and services, and transportation, with March's growth rate revised up from 0.2% to 0.4% [1] - The real estate market saw a significant increase in transaction volume before the expiration of tax relief for specific homebuyers at the end of March, contributing to economic growth [1] Group 2 - Manufacturing performance was particularly strong, growing by 1.1% compared to Q4 2024 [1] - However, GDP fell by 0.3% in April, indicating that the strong growth in Q1 may not continue throughout the year [2] - Experts warn that despite encouraging Q1 economic data, future growth prospects remain uncertain due to a complex global economic environment and new US import tariffs that may challenge UK exporters [2]

Core Viewpoint - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased last week, but the unemployment rate may rise in June due to more unemployed individuals struggling to find work [1] Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - Initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000, which is below expectations [1] - The data includes the week of the Independence Day holiday, during which applications tend to be unstable [1] - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits increased by 37,000 to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021 [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Despite the decline in initial claims, layoffs are increasing, making it harder for unemployed individuals to find new opportunities [1] - Economists attribute the challenges to widespread import tariffs imposed by President Trump, which complicate business planning [1] - Some economists predict that the unemployment rate will rise from 4.2% in May to 4.3% in June due to the ongoing increase in continuing claims [1]