Poland’s central bank Governor Adam Glapinski pushes back against growing market expectations that a surprise interest rate cut on Wednesday has kicked off an easing cycle https://t.co/hXXQIlQVph ...

Market Overview - In 2025, markets are experiencing high volatility, with NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices reaching all-time highs despite uncertain economic indicators [1][2] - Analysts anticipate clearer monetary and tariff policies in the second half of the year, along with solid earnings reports, particularly in the tech sector driven by AI [2] Company Insights - **CME Group**: - Operates the largest derivatives marketplace, benefiting from increased trading volumes in volatile markets [5] - Stock has risen over 40% in the last 12 months and over 18% in 2025, showing signs of recovery after a pullback [6][7] - **Goldman Sachs**: - A leading global investment bank that thrives in volatile markets, generating revenue from expanded bid-ask spreads and increased trading activity [9][10] - Stock is up 23.8% in 2025, with bullish momentum but potential for a short-term pullback [11] - **MarketAxess**: - Operates an electronic trading platform for corporate bonds, expected to benefit from increased trading volumes as credit market volatility rises [13][14] - Stock is down 1.5% in 2025 but has shown a 3.1% increase in the last three months, indicating a potential breakout [15][16]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - Central banks have done a good job taming the great inflation of 2022 [1] - The primary concern should be the inflation trajectory, as it dictates the direction of interest rates [3][4] - Current policy is broadly in line with a neutral stance, with analysts suggesting a 7% nominal rate indicates neutral territory [14][15] - Uncertainty about the inflation trajectory persists due to past volatility [15] Inflation Target & Policy Revision - There's an opportunity for "opportunistic disinflation," using a low inflation environment to anchor inflation expectations [5][11] - The current inflation target range is considered too wide and high compared to peers, necessitating a revision [10] - The South African Reserve Bank is undergoing a review, with recommendations to lower the inflation target to 2-3% [6][8] - Lowering the inflation target could lead to lower nominal interest rates [14] Risks & Communication - Geopolitical shocks and policy decisions (tariffs) can impact the economic outlook [2] - Scenarios are useful for policymakers to communicate potential risks and future trajectories, but require careful communication to avoid public misinterpretation [16][17]

30 June 2025 | 12:14PM EDT US Daily: Shifting to a September Cut and a Lower Terminal Rate (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 ...

Core Viewpoint - TMC The Metals Company has experienced a significant increase in stock price, driven by positive market momentum and favorable analyst coverage, despite some sell-offs in the latter half of the trading week [1][2][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - TMC's stock closed the week up 3.8%, outperforming the S&P 500 index, which rallied by 3.4% [1]. - The stock has risen 44% over the last month, largely due to bullish market sentiment and a major investment from Korea Zinc [2]. - Following Wedbush's upgrade of TMC's rating from neutral to outperform, the stock saw a significant increase in trading activity [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Positive macroeconomic indicators, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, have contributed to a bullish market outlook [4]. - A ceasefire between Israel and Iran has also provided a favorable geopolitical backdrop, enhancing investor sentiment [4]. Group 3: Analyst Coverage - Wedbush raised its one-year price target for TMC from $6 to $11 per share, indicating a potential upside of approximately 61.5% [5]. - The positive analyst coverage has played a crucial role in boosting TMC's stock performance [5]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The U.S. is increasing its domestic mineral production capabilities amid geopolitical tensions with China, which may benefit TMC [6]. - TMC still faces regulatory hurdles but the overall conditions appear to be improving for the company [6].

Market Overview - The market has recovered most of its losses from earlier in the quarter, finishing strong despite initial turbulence caused by President Trump's trade policies [1][2] - The upcoming week is expected to be shortened, following a quarter that started poorly but ended on a high note, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a steady investment approach [2] Company Insights - Constellation Brands is expected to report disappointing earnings, reflecting broader challenges in the consumer packaged goods sector [4] - The company faces headwinds from the rise of GLP-1 weight loss drugs and increasing consumer preference for cannabis, which are negatively impacting alcohol sales [4] - Constellation Brands' sales are particularly affected by Trump's immigration policies, as approximately half of its beer sales come from Hispanic consumers who are now spending less due to concerns over employment [4] Economic Indicators - The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index will be released, serving as a key indicator of the industrial economy's health, with potential implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [3] - Mortgage application figures are anticipated, which have been described as a significant burden on the economy [5] - The labor report set to be released on Thursday is critical; weak data could lead to renewed criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and raise the possibility of a rate cut in July [5]

Thursday, June 26, 2025We started this trading week with some questions about the ability of the stock market to overcome some perceived major hurdles, a burgeoning war in the Middle East among them. Also, we’ve gotten a large dollop of economic news thus far for the week, including this morning’s Weekly Jobless Claims and Q1 GDP.And yet, nothing seems to faze market participants at this point and time. All markets except the small-cap Russell 2000 are now up for the year, with the S&P 500 a hair away from ...

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS 9.27%) posted big gains Monday in a session of strong trading for space stocks. The company's share price ended the daily session up 9.3%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.96%) and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC 0.94%) both gained 1% on the day.AST SpaceMobile's valuation surged higher today amid excitement for the space industry, geopolitical developments, and comments from a Federal Reserve official that could point to a more favorable backdrop for the stock. The company's share price wa ...

墨尔本市场全面复苏 Domain报道称，悉尼房价中位数有望在下一财年突破180万澳元大关，而 墨尔本房价或将达到111.2万澳元。 此外，布里斯班的房价中位数预计将接近110万澳元，珀斯也有望进入房价百万俱乐部。 "即便按照今天的价格，大多次首次购房者也无法负担悉尼的独栋屋，公寓可能是他们唯一的选择。" | Capital City | FY25 | FY26 | FY25 | FY26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sydney | 3% | 6% | $835,819 | $888,822 | | Melbourne | -3% | 5% | $555,522 | $584,400 | | Brisbane | 12% | 5% | $670,798 | $701,490 | | Adelaide | 10% | 3% | $568,000 | $586,366 | | Canberra | -13% | 3% | $531,784 | $546,265 | | Perth | 12% | 6% | $519,551 | $552,487 | | Combined ...

Market Overview - The broader market has experienced a strong rally, with the S&P 500 delivering a total return of 10.5% over the last 12 months, driven by indications of moderating inflation and hopes for lower interest rates [1] Financial Sector Outlook - The outlook for financial companies is heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [2] PayPal Analysis - PayPal's stock is down approximately 17% year to date and 77% from its all-time high in 2021, despite solid gains in the broader financial sector [4] - The company maintains a strong position in the payments and financial services industry, with few competitors matching its financial foundations and operational track record [5] - PayPal's total revenue increased by 1% year over year to $7.8 billion, while total payment volume rose by 3% annually to $417.2 billion [6] - Non-GAAP earnings per share increased by 23% year over year to $1.33, with the company holding $15.8 billion in cash against $12.6 billion in debt after returning $1.5 billion to shareholders through stock buybacks [7] - PayPal stock is currently trading at 13.5 times this year's expected earnings, with potential for a more favorable operating environment if the Fed cuts interest rates [8] - The stock is viewed as an attractive investment opportunity in the financial sector due to its solid business foundations and encouraging performance [9] Prudential Financial Analysis - Prudential Financial is positioned to benefit from a potential increase in long-term interest rates, which could lead to higher yields on future bond purchases [13] - The stock is currently down 19% from its lifetime high, and higher interest rates may lower the value of its current bonds but increase the discount rate on its liabilities [13] - Prudential Financial offers a 5.1% dividend yield, making it a useful addition for portfolio insurance [14]