Market Outlook - The market has shown strength during the traditionally weak period from June to October, with historical data indicating that it has been strong 100% of the time in November and December since 1950 [3] - Earnings power for the S&P 500 is accelerating, with sales growth tracking at approximately 8% this quarter, which is notable given the absence of a recession [4] - The "Magnificent Seven" companies have maintained stable headcount while experiencing revenue acceleration, leading to significant margin growth and mid-teens earnings growth [5] Labor Market and Corporate Margins - There has been a shift in corporate attitudes towards layoffs, with companies becoming more comfortable with the idea, which may positively impact margins [6] - The trend of labor hoarding is diminishing as companies recognize the benefits of AI, allowing for improved margins despite potential negative impacts on labor [7][8] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The likelihood of a rate cut in December is perceived to be lower than market expectations, which could lead to negative market reactions if it does not occur [9][10] - The upcoming change in the Federal Reserve regime in May 2026 may lead to lower interest rates and potential quantitative easing, which could create favorable conditions for corporate America [11] Inflation and Consumer Spending - Inflation has remained above 2% for five years, and the Fed's current stance suggests a shift towards a 2.5% to 3% inflation zone, which is seen as positive for risk assets [12][13] - The correlation between consumer spending and restaurant performance is declining, indicating that the S&P 500 is increasingly driven by the AI data center buildout trade rather than consumer behavior [17]

By Michael S. Derby (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday he's in no hurry to cut interest rates again with inflation still too far above the central bank's 2% target. "I'm not decided going into the December meeting" and "my threshold for cutting is a little bit higher than it was at the last two meetings," Goolsbee said in a Yahoo Finance interview. "I am nervous about the inflation side of the ledger, where you've seen inflation above the target for four a ...

Chile’s economic activity bounced back in September, driven by gains in mining and services, as the central bank bides its time to determine when it will deliver another interest rate cut https://t.co/CpUcOMQhGO ...

Key Points Shiba Inu fell today as investors reacted to news about interest rates. While the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate yesterday, investors may not be getting another cut in December. News about the U.S.'s trade agreement with China may also be weighing on the crypto market today. 10 stocks we like better than Shiba Inu › Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: SHIB) has been falling rapidly Thursday. The cryptocurrency's token price had sunk 7.3% over the past 24 hours of trading as of 6:20 p.m. ...

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have reached their highest level since October 9, following the Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the short-term benchmark rate, with analysts expressing disappointment over the lack of a clear indication for a December rate cut [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered its short-term benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.75%-4% on October 29 [1]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a December rate cut is "not a foregone conclusion," which has dampened market expectations for further cuts [1][3]. - The CME Fed Watch tool showed a decrease in the probability of a rate cut at the next meeting, dropping from 91.1% to 66.6% after the Fed meeting [2]. Group 2: Mortgage Rate Trends - Mortgage rates increased from approximately 6.13% to 6.27% immediately after Powell's comments, and further rose to 6.33% on October 30 [2]. - Historical trends indicate that mortgage rates often rise even when the Fed cuts rates, as seen in previous instances [4]. Group 3: Market Predictions - BOK Financial predicts that mortgage rates may ease slightly to around 5.9% to 6.0% due to cooler inflation and a slower labor market [5]. - Despite potential easing, the "lock-in effect" is constraining inventory and keeping home prices elevated, with over 80% of mortgages below 6% [7]. Group 4: Impact on Homeowners - The recent rate cut will lower Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) rates, benefiting existing homeowners [8].

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025. Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces if not the most difficult challenge of his time in office at least the trickiest in his final months as head of the all-powerful U.S. central bank.Fresh off his surprisingly tough talk Wednesday on the potential for another interest rate cut in Decem ...

Key Points Interest rate cuts are generally good for the crypto market, but Bitcoin is falling after the Fed announced a rate reduction yesterday. The Fed reduced benchmark interest rates by a quarter point, but investors are feeling less confident about a rate cut in December. The crypto market can see big swings in conjunction with macroeconomic news, but investors shouldn't overreact to recent pricing trends. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › The Federal Reserve announced another 25-basi ...

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's indication that another rate cut in December is "not guaranteed" has created uncertainty in the markets, particularly affecting Bitcoin's typical response to rate cuts [1][3][7] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points, the second consecutive cut, aims to support a slowing U.S. economy, but divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee regarding future cuts have emerged [2][4][5] Monetary Policy Impact - Powell's comments reflect a lack of consensus among Fed members on the pace of monetary easing, with some advocating for more aggressive cuts while others caution against rapid reductions due to ongoing inflation concerns [4][5] - The probability of a December rate cut has significantly decreased, dropping to about 56% from nearly 90% the previous day, which has led to fluctuations in U.S. equities [6] Bitcoin Market Reaction - Bitcoin's historical tendency to rally during Fed rate cuts may be challenged this cycle due to the uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy [7][8] - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's recent upward movement, which began from a low of $103,530 on October 17, is showing signs of fatigue and remains within a constrained upward channel [9]

Bitcoin dropped sharply following the Federal Reserve’s second consecutive interest rate cut. https://t.co/CB5eNTFB89 ...

The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate Wednesday for a second time this year as it seeks to shore up economic growth and hiring, even as inflation stays elevated. ...