Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish outlook for the Asian economy, suggesting a potential slowdown in growth due to rising effective tariffs and the unwinding of frontloading and transshipment activities [6][15][25]. Core Insights - Asian growth has been supported by low effective tariffs on US imports, but this is expected to change as tariffs rise and scrutiny on transshipment increases [1][6]. - The first half of 2025 saw significant frontloading of exports, particularly in the tech sector, with annualized export momentum reaching nearly 20% [2][5]. - China's export performance has been resilient, with a 20% quarter-on-quarter growth despite punitive tariffs, largely due to transshipment through third countries [3][10]. - Effective tariff rates in Emerging Asia (excluding India and China) are currently around 11%, but could rise to 20.3% if no trade deals are reached [11][15]. - The report forecasts a sharp decline in GDP growth for Emerging Asia, from an average of 3% in the first half of 2025 to 1.3% in the second half [15][16]. Summary by Sections Export Dynamics - Frontloading of exports has significantly boosted growth, with tech exports showing an annualized momentum of 60% [2][5]. - Transshipment of Chinese goods has mitigated the impact of US tariffs, with exports to the US declining by 40% but offset by new markets [3][10]. Tariff Implications - The US has proposed higher tariffs, with a potential doubling of effective rates for many Asian economies if no agreements are reached [11][15]. - Current effective tariff rates are much lower than initially feared, particularly for semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are crucial for economies like Taiwan and Singapore [5][12]. Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a significant slowdown in growth, with EMAX GDP growth expected to drop to less than half of the first half's pace [15][16]. - Monetary policy is expected to play a crucial role in supporting growth, as inflation remains benign and central banks are likely to continue easing cycles [23][25].

Trade & Tariffs Impact - Tariffs are essentially taxes that will be paid by American companies, small businesses, or consumers, not by other countries [2] - Current actions are perceived as raising costs for families, impacting food prices at grocery stores [3] - Farmers, manufacturers, and small businesses are experiencing uncertainty and chaos due to tariffs, which they consider worse than previous trade wars [3] Brazil-US Trade Relations - The US imports various goods from Brazil, including minerals that are essential for powering cars and energy sectors [1] - These Brazilian imports are also linked to daily routines, such as coffee consumption [1] Economic Policy - The current economic situation is being referred to as "Trump's economy" [2] - Previous promises focused on lowering costs for people [2]

Tariff Landscape & Trade Policy - The US administration is considering raising tariffs on Canada to 35%, up from the current 25%, though exemptions for USMCA-compliant goods and a lower 10% tariff for energy are likely to remain [2] - The US President is considering raising the universal baseline tariff from 10% to 15% or even 20%, potentially increasing the cost of all imported goods by at least 15% [4] - The US has postponed the July 9th deadline for reciprocal tariffs but has introduced new tariff threats for Canada and Brazil, including a potential 50% tariff on copper and a possible 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals [5][6] - The US President believes that uncertainty is the best negotiating leverage and is keeping it up [9] - A potential doubling of the universal baseline tariff to 20% on all imports could bring the US back to pre-post-war economy levels, impacting the US services economy and increasing the cost of goods [13][14] Geopolitical & Company Strategy - Canada is strengthening its partnerships throughout the world, signaling a shift in trade relations amid tariff disputes [3] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang's visit to the White House and subsequent trip to China amid tariff discussions and export controls suggest potential negotiations for lifting export controls, which would benefit Nvidia [15][16][17][18] - The US President's rhetoric towards China has become more upbeat, with potential trade negotiations on the horizon [17]

Market Trends & Trade Relations - US equities experienced a downturn due to escalating trade tensions initiated by Trump [1] - A 35% tariff was threatened on some Canadian goods [1] - The possibility of increasing levies on most other countries was floated [1]

Trade Policy Changes - US President considers raising universal baseline tariff from 10% to 15% or even 20% [4] - Potential doubling of the baseline tariff, impacting the cost of goods bought from abroad [4] - Initial postponement of major tariffs deadline suggested a potential softening of trade stance, but subsequent threats indicate otherwise [5] Canada Trade Relations - US President announces 35% tariffs on imports from Canada [1][2] - Canada is the second largest US trading partner and the largest buyer of American goods last year [2] - Exemptions for USMCA compliant goods and lower 10% tariff for energy imports may soften the impact [2] - The decision on tariffs is not final [3] Broadening Trade War - New tariff threats against Canada and Brazil [5] - Potential 50% tariff on copper and 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals [6] - A vast expansion of the trade war on multiple fronts is occurring [6]

Trade Relations & Economic Impact - Vietnam's economy is heavily reliant on exports, representing approximately 90% of its GDP [4][8] - The US is Vietnam's largest export market, leading to a significant trade surplus and making it a target for potential tariffs [1] - Potential tariffs from the US, such as a proposed 46% tariff, could profoundly impact Vietnam's economy and manufacturing sector [2][10] - Vietnam experienced substantial foreign investment, exceeding $600 billion since 1988, contributing to export growth [7] Geopolitical Strategy & Manufacturing - Vietnam has become a major player in the global supply chain, manufacturing goods for various American companies and global brands [3][4] - The "China Plus One" strategy led companies to relocate some production to Vietnam to avoid tariffs on Chinese goods, benefiting Vietnam during US-China trade tensions [8][9] - Vietnam employs a "bamboo diplomacy" strategy to navigate complex relationships between the US and China, balancing economic and geopolitical considerations [15][16] - Vietnam's government is proactively engaging with the US to mitigate trade imbalances, including purchasing US products [12] Historical Context & Economic Development - Post-war Vietnam was one of the world's poorest countries, but economic reforms and policies to attract foreign investment have driven significant growth [5][6] - Vietnam's strategy of offering tax incentives, infrastructure development, and an open attitude to global manufacturers has been successful in attracting foreign investment [6]

Let's get back to tariffs where our next guest says the latest moves, the new letters, the new rates signal some concerns about where the trade war is heading. Tobin Marcus is head of US policy and politics at Wolf Research. Tobin, what are you gleaning from this.Because markets are now I think we can say shrugging this off, right. Absolutely. I think the fact that nothing is actually happening for several more weeks is all the explanation that you need for markets continuing to ignore this for now.We've ha ...

Let's talk about the dollar for a second. Since April 2nd, basically since the start of the second quarter, we've seen the dollar fall about 6% historically. How big of a move is that.And do you see that as a potential warning sign for equity investors. Yeah, clearly the the decline in the dollar here reflects this loss of confidence in US trade uh security and and perhaps even fiscal policy because you also see a bit of a divergence between the dollar index and rate differential. I think that reflects this ...

Welcome back to Power Lunch. Global bond yields have certainly been on the move this week. It's settling down a little bit today.Um but trade tensions are back to the four. From Washington to Asia Asia, rising rhetoric over tariffs adding a fresh layer of risk pushing investors to repric everything from sovereign debt to corporate bonds. The 10-year yield today is finally kind of, you know, coming down a little bit.You can see it there on the chart. It was trading above 4.4% 4% for the second day in a row. ...

The White House announced a 90-day pause on President Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs in late April. That pause is about to end and the Trump administration is nowhere near reaching 90 trade agreements.@b_muzz joins @davidgura on the Big Take podcast to discuss what the White House has accomplished, what it hasn’t, and where the trade war goes from here https://t.co/XqnkYKcAW2 ...