💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 President Trump says all NATO nations are preparing to "do major sanctions on Russia" and impose 50% to 100% tariffs on China. https://t.co/6jfn9FOn2d ...

Trade & Tariffs - Tariffs negatively impact the standard of living by increasing costs and reducing productivity [3][4] - Trump's tariffs, while potentially reducing GDP by approximately 0.5% in the long run, pose a greater threat due to uncertainty and volatility, disrupting business investments [6][7][8] - US businesses, rather than exporters, are absorbing a significant amount of tariff costs, partly due to front-running and uncertainty about the tariffs' permanence [10] - Many tariffs are levied on inputs into US manufacturing, raising costs for US businesses [12] - The auto industry is particularly vulnerable to tariffs due to its integrated North American supply chain, where parts cross borders multiple times [15] - Tariffs function as a sales tax on imported goods, potentially increasing revenue and reducing the deficit, but the amount is unlikely to reach Secretary Besson's estimate of $300 billion [18][19][20] - The US is violating international trade agreements, damaging its credibility and potentially dismantling a system built over 90 years [22][23] Immigration & Labor - Immigrant workers are concentrated in specific industries and occupations that complement native-born American workers, and driving them out reduces productivity and living standards [4][5] - Industries that might return to the US are likely to be capital-intensive, creating more jobs for robots than for US workers [18] Economic Policy & Impact - The stated goal of bringing back manufacturing jobs may not be achieved due to automation and the integrated nature of industries like the auto industry [14][16]

Core Viewpoint - RH has shown progress in profitability despite facing macroeconomic challenges and tariff uncertainties, but the company's outlook has become more cautious, leading to a decline in share prices after the earnings report [1][11]. Financial Performance - For the second quarter, RH reported revenue of approximately $899 million, representing an 8.4% year-over-year increase, while net income surged by 79% to around $52 million [4]. - Free cash flow for the quarter was about $81 million, indicating strong cash generation [4]. - Adjusted operating margin improved to 15.1%, and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 20.6%, both up 340 basis points from the previous year, showcasing significant margin expansion alongside revenue growth [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing in a global brand strategy, including new flagship locations in Europe, while navigating tariff-related uncertainties and a sluggish U.S. housing market [2][10]. - RH is shifting its sourcing strategy, expecting receipts from China to decrease to about 2% by Q4, down from 16% in Q1, and increasing production in the U.S. and Italy [9]. Guidance and Outlook - RH revised its fiscal 2025 revenue growth forecast to 9% to 11%, down from a previous estimate of 10% to 13%, and adjusted its operating margin expectations to between 13% and 14% [7]. - The company anticipates about $30 million in incremental tariff costs in the second half and expects a delay in the fall interiors sourcebook, pushing an estimated $40 million of revenue from Q3 to Q4 and early fiscal 2026 [8]. Market Conditions - The housing market remains a significant concern, with the CEO expressing disappointment in its performance despite demand growth [10]. - International expansion efforts, such as the opening of RH Paris, are seen as a counterbalance to domestic challenges, with plans for additional locations in London and Milan by 2026 [10]. Valuation Considerations - Despite improved profitability metrics, RH's valuation remains challenging, trading near a mid-50s price-to-earnings multiple and a market capitalization exceeding $4 billion, which may deter new investors given the uncertainties [11].

U.S. revenue has soared year-to-date thanks to new tariffs, but a case challenging the policy is headed to the Supreme Court. https://t.co/ptLbeh8DTg ...

Consumer Spending Trends - Consumer sentiment has dropped in September as Americans express concerns about job market risks and tariffs, leading to cautious spending habits [2][12] - There is a bifurcation in consumer spending, with high-income consumers continuing to spend while low-income consumers are under pressure, focusing more on needs than wants [5][6][10] - Retailers catering to value-oriented consumers, such as dollar stores and off-price retailers, are performing well, while discretionary retail is experiencing weakness [8][9] Retail Sector Insights - Retail visits increased in July and August, driven by promotional events like Prime Day and back-to-school sales, but the overall consumer remains promotional-driven and cautious [11][12] - Specialty grocery and fresh format groceries are benefiting from high-end consumer spending, while casual dining is also performing well, particularly for brands like Chili's [10][19] - The retail landscape is characterized by a divide between value-oriented and discretionary retailers, with the former capturing market share [7][9] Restaurant Industry Dynamics - Quick service restaurants (QSR) are facing challenges as lower-income consumers trade down to value grocers and convenience stores due to inflation [16][17] - QSRs are responding with increased promotional activities to attract customers, while casual dining establishments are seeing success by retaining customers and increasing visit frequency [18][19] - The restaurant sector is adapting to consumer preferences, with a focus on value and experience to maintain customer loyalty [20][52] Black Rock Coffee Bar IPO - Black Rock Coffee Bar made its public debut on the NASDAQ with shares opening around $26.50, aiming to expand from 158 locations to about 1,000 by 2035 [38][41] - The company emphasizes a unique model that combines drive-thru convenience with a lobby experience, focusing on customer engagement through baristas [39][40] - Despite rising coffee prices, Black Rock Coffee Bar has managed to keep prices consistent by sourcing beans from multiple countries and adjusting supply chains [44][46]

US stocks closed out a winning week mixed on Friday as Wall Street took stock of the US economy from a lofty, record-setting perch ahead of the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated decision on interest rates next week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed around 0.5% to notch its fifth-consecutive record as Tesla (TSLA) stock hit a seven-month high. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell just below the flat line, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.6%. Still, the Dow gained nearly 1% for th ...

Core Insights - RH's shares fell 5% after reporting second-quarter earnings that missed analyst expectations despite revenue growth [1] - Adjusted earnings were $2.93 per share, below the expected $3.18, while revenue increased by 8.4% to $899.2 million, falling short of the $906.58 million consensus [1] - Demand grew by 13.7% during the quarter [1] Financial Performance - Net income surged by 79%, and free cash flow reached $81 million [2] - Operating margin remained at 15.1%, while adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 20.6%, both up 340 basis points year-over-year [2] - The company revised its fiscal 2025 outlook, now expecting revenue growth of 9% to 11% and operating margins between 13% and 14% [2] - For the third quarter, revenue growth is anticipated in the range of 8% to 10% [2] Supply Chain and Tariff Impact - Management indicated that sourcing from China would decrease from 16% in the first quarter to 2% in the fourth quarter [3] - Recently imposed 50% tariffs on India are expected to impact 7% of the business [3]

RT Bloomberg en Español (@BBGenEspanol)¿Quieres saber qué pasó esta semana en Latinoamérica? @ValiHilairenos cuenta de los aranceles que México busca imponer a productos asiáticos, la condena de 27 años de prisión de Bolsonaro y de cómo impactó en Argentina la derrota electoral de Milei.📽️ https://t.co/lDFP5g4VaJ https://t.co/Xia2EVNP6k ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. franchise auto dealerships are showing solid momentum despite tariff challenges and the expiration of EV credits, with demand remaining better than expected in the near term [1][2]. Demand and Affordability - Retail new-vehicle sales are experiencing mid- to high-single-digit growth in Q3, driven by stable consumer spending and limited price increases from OEMs despite tariffs [4]. - The expiration of certain EV incentives has accelerated demand, increasing the battery-electric vehicle mix to approximately 10% in the current quarter, up from about 7% in the previous quarter [4]. Inventory and Profitability - Inventory levels and days' supply are stable, contributing to a gradual normalization in gross profit per unit (GPU) rather than a sudden reset [5]. - Used vehicle volumes remain strong, and service lanes are experiencing healthy traffic and pricing, indicating the resilience of higher-margin fixed operations [5][7]. Market Outlook - JPMorgan has raised its Q3 estimates for U.S. franchise auto dealers, projecting about 2% above previous estimates and roughly 7% above consensus [6]. - The bank's top picks include Lithia & Driveway and AutoNation, while noting potential impacts from a recent cyber incident affecting some U.K.-exposed operators [6]. Future Risks - Looking beyond Q3, there are increasing risks to demand and GPUs as EV credits phase out and tariffs are fully reflected in vehicle prices, alongside a softening labor market in key regions [8]. - JPMorgan forecasts a U.S. SAAR of approximately 15.5 million in 2026, slightly down from 16.0 million in 2025, with potential upside if trade outcomes with Canada and Mexico improve [8].

Core Viewpoint - U.S. franchise auto dealerships are showing resilience in fundamentals despite potential macroeconomic headwinds, with demand performing better than expected in the near term [1][2]. Demand and Affordability - Retail new-vehicle sales are experiencing mid- to high-single-digit growth in Q3, driven by stable consumer spending and limited price increases from OEMs despite tariffs [4]. - The expiration of certain EV incentives has accelerated demand, increasing the battery-electric vehicle mix to approximately 10% in the current quarter, up from about 7% in the previous quarter [4]. Inventory and Profitability - Inventory levels and days' supply are stable, contributing to a gradual normalization in gross profit per unit (GPU) rather than a sudden reset [5]. - Used vehicle volumes remain strong, and service lanes are experiencing healthy traffic and pricing, indicating robust higher-margin fixed operations [5]. Market Outlook - JPMorgan has raised its Q3 estimates, projecting them to be about 2% above previous estimates and roughly 7% above consensus [6]. - The bank's top picks in the sector are Lithia & Driveway and AutoNation, although a recent cyber incident may impact certain U.K.-exposed operators [6]. Used Vehicle Market - Industry checks indicate mid- to high-single-digit year-over-year gains in used retail sales through July and August, with tight late-model supply expected to ease in the coming quarters [7]. - Wholesale prices have cooled after an initial spike due to tariffs, and retail/wholesale spreads suggest a favorable GPU environment, although sourcing remains competitive [7]. Future Risks - Beyond Q3, there are increasing risks to demand and GPUs as EV credits expire and tariffs are fully reflected in vehicle prices amid a softening labor market [8]. - JPMorgan projects a U.S. SAAR of approximately 15.5 million in 2026, slightly down from 16.0 million in 2025, with potential upside if trade outcomes with Canada and Mexico improve [8].