Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a strong performance in November and December, with traffic and ticket-driven growth leading to better-than-expected comparable store sales [4][5][7] - The effective price increase of 4.5% as of November 1st contributed to improved flow-through and traffic, with an average check increase of about $1 [7][8] - The company expects a restaurant-level margin of 18% for fiscal 2026, with potential to reach closer to 20% in fiscal 2027 due to various operational improvements [13][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing a 20% annual growth rate in unit openings, aiming for over 300 units in the U.S. [2] - The class of 2025 openings is outperforming previous classes by at least 10%, attributed to better site selection and landlord relationships [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has expanded to 83 units across 22 states and the District of Columbia, demonstrating the brand's portability beyond coastal markets [21] - The competitive landscape includes local mom-and-pop sushi restaurants, which are struggling to maintain pricing, allowing Kura Sushi to capitalize on its value proposition [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging its scale advantages to enhance guest experience and drive customer traffic, particularly among less sophisticated sushi consumers [23] - The introduction of tiered statuses in the rewards program is expected to enhance customer engagement and drive traffic [34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the macroeconomic environment has improved, contributing to the company's strong performance in late 2023 [5] - The company is optimistic about future growth, citing the potential for continued traffic growth as guests rediscover the value offered by Kura Sushi [9] Other Important Information - The company filed a $100 million shelf registration to maintain flexibility for future capital raises, with a robust balance sheet of over $76 million in cash and investments [27] - The company is implementing robotic dishwashers, expected to improve operational efficiency and reduce labor costs [41][44] Q&A Session Summary Question: What drove the acceleration in November and December? - Management attributed the acceleration to a better macro setup and successful marketing campaigns, including the One Piece campaign [4][5] Question: What is the visibility into achieving the 18% restaurant-level margin? - Management indicated that negotiations with suppliers helped mitigate tariff impacts, and they expect to achieve the margin through operational improvements [10][12] Question: How is the class of 2025 performing compared to previous classes? - The class of 2025 is outperforming previous classes by at least 10%, aided by improved site selection and landlord relationships [19][20] Question: Can you elaborate on the IP partnerships and their impact? - Management expressed optimism about the IP pipeline, noting that the quality of partnerships continues to improve year over year [30] Question: What are the plans for the rewards program? - The company plans to introduce tiered statuses to enhance engagement and drive traffic, while also decoupling the reservation system from the rewards program to increase accessibility [32][34]

Core Insights - The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a core inflation rate of 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7%, but consistent with the previous months from September to November, remaining close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] - The inflation report does not provide sufficient justification for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates in the upcoming meeting, as inflation remains above target [2] - Shelter costs, which rose by 0.4% in December, were a significant contributor to the inflation increase, although the data collection process may have skewed the results due to assumptions made during the government shutdown [2][3] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rate range of 3.5%-3.75% for the time being, as rates are deemed well-positioned to support job growth while managing inflation [5] - New York Fed president John Williams anticipates economic growth in 2026, with inflation expected to peak in the first half of the year and then decline to just under 2.5% by year-end [4] - The expectation is for 50 basis points of policy easing in 2026, but the Fed is likely to wait until at least June to resume rate cuts [4]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy added only 50,000 jobs in December, marking one of the weakest years for job growth in decades, with a total of 584,000 jobs added in 2022, the lowest non-recession total since 2003 [1][3] - The job growth was primarily driven by the health care and hospitality sectors, which added 38,500 and 47,000 jobs respectively, while manufacturing and retail sectors experienced job losses [3] Small Business Impact - Small business owners are hesitant to hire due to policy uncertainty, with 72% of jobs in the U.S. created by companies with 5 to 500 employees, indicating their critical role in the economy [1] - Concerns over tariffs are causing small business owners to adopt a wait-and-see approach, limiting their hiring and spending until a Supreme Court ruling on tariff rebates is made [2] Labor Market Insights - The December labor market report indicates a "jobless boom," where net job losses would have occurred without the contributions from health care and social assistance sectors [4] - The rise in long-term unemployment suggests that unemployment may be transitioning into a more permanent state rather than a temporary situation [4] Future Outlook - Despite the weak job data, there is optimism for 2026, particularly in energy infrastructure, with a noted competitive disadvantage in power generation compared to China [5]

The Supreme Court has indicated it may release opinions on Wednesday, sparking fresh speculation that its ruling in a crucial tariff case is coming. But analysts are emphasizing the justices could keep holding off on releasing their decision. ...

Core Insights - The pace of increases in consumer prices is expected to have remained steady in December [1] Group 1 - Consumer prices are projected to show consistent growth rates, indicating stability in inflation trends [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Focus - **Foreign Exchange and Rates Strategy**: The conference call primarily discusses strategies and outlooks for foreign exchange (FX) and interest rates across various regions, particularly Asia and G10 currencies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **USD/CNH Outlook**: The current spot reference for USD/CNH is 6.980, with expectations for potential movements in the next three months [1] 2. **Top FX Trades**: - Long CNH/KRW with a target of 216 by end-February, conviction level raised to 4/5 [2][9] - Long NZD/USD targeting 0.6000 by end-March, conviction level at 4/5 [2][16] - New long positions initiated in EUR/GBP and SGD/IDR, both with conviction levels of 3/5 [2][9] 3. **US Economic Indicators**: - December NFP report showed +50K jobs added vs. consensus of +70K, with an unemployment rate of 4.4% [4] - Upcoming US core CPI release on January 13 is anticipated to be significant, with a forecast of 0.5% m-o-m, which could influence Fed rate cut expectations [7] 4. **China's Economic Data**: - December exports are expected to show a slowdown to 3.0% y-o-y from 5.9% previously, which could impact RMB performance [8] - Positive expectations for RMB appreciation due to stable external sector conditions and reduced USD purchases by banks [18] 5. **Korean Won (KRW) Dynamics**: - Anticipated underperformance of KRW due to retail outflows into US equities and structural outflows from the Korea National Pension Service [20] 6. **Singapore Monetary Policy**: - MAS may tighten FX policy in April 2026, with a 30% chance of a slight slope increase in January [21] 7. **Indonesian Fiscal Concerns**: - Indonesia's fiscal deficit is projected to be 2.92% of GDP, raising concerns about future fiscal policy under the new administration [22][23] 8. **Taiwan's Currency Position**: - Maintaining a short USD/TWD position with a target of 29.8 by end-May 2026, supported by strong local fundamentals and global AI demand [24] Other Important Insights 1. **Market Reactions to US Tariffs**: The Supreme Court's decision on Trump's tariffs could lead to significant market reactions, with expectations of a ruling against the tariffs [4][6] 2. **NOK/SEK Trade**: Profit taken on short NOK/SEK trade due to changes in Norges Bank's FX activity, with a bullish outlook on SEK [11] 3. **JPY Weakness**: Ongoing concerns about JPY weakness amid geopolitical tensions and the need for reassurance from Japanese authorities [12] 4. **Canadian Dollar (CAD) Performance**: CAD has weakened due to falling crude oil prices and potential shifts in US oil imports [13] 5. **AUD Valuation**: AUD is considered undervalued, with a target of 0.6875 by end-March, supported by positive global sentiment [14][15] This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, highlighting the strategic outlook for various currencies and the macroeconomic factors influencing these positions.

Trade and Tariffs - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from any country conducting business with Iran, impacting major trading partners like China, the UAE, India, and Turkey [3][4] - China is identified as the top global importer of Iranian crude, which may face increased costs due to the new tariffs [3] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams indicated there is no urgency for a fourth consecutive interest rate cut, with the next meeting scheduled for the end of the month [5][6] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has already reduced the federal funds rate by a cumulative 75 basis points last year, moving towards a neutral monetary policy stance [6] Aldi's Expansion Plans - Aldi plans to open over 180 new stores across 31 states by the end of 2026, celebrating its 50th anniversary in the U.S. [7][8] - This expansion will increase Aldi's total U.S. store count to nearly 2,800, with a target of 3,200 stores by the end of 2028 [8] - Aldi is also expanding its distribution network by 20% with new centers planned in Florida, Arizona, and Colorado over the next three years [9]

Trade and Tariffs - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from any country conducting business with Iran, affecting major trading partners like China, the UAE, India, and Turkey [3][4] - China is identified as the top global importer of Iranian crude, which may face increased costs due to the new tariffs [3] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams indicated there is no urgency for a fourth consecutive interest rate cut, with the next meeting scheduled for the end of the month [5][6] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has already reduced the federal funds rate by a cumulative 75 basis points last year, moving towards a neutral monetary policy stance [6] Aldi's Expansion Plans - Aldi plans to open over 180 new stores across 31 states by the end of 2026, celebrating its 50th anniversary in the U.S. [7][8] - This expansion will increase Aldi's total U.S. store count to nearly 2,800, with a target of 3,200 stores by the end of 2028 [8] - Aldi is also expanding its distribution network by 20% with new centers planned in Florida, Arizona, and Colorado over the next three years [9]

Core Viewpoint - Delta Air Lines is expected to see earnings jump more than 20% in 2025 due to strong travel demand, particularly in the premium segment, potentially reaching record levels [1] Financial Performance - Delta forecasts adjusted earnings per share between $6.50 and $7.50 for the current year, slightly below analysts' estimate of $7.25 [1] - For the first quarter of 2026, Delta anticipates sales growth of up to 7% and adjusted earnings per share between $0.50 and $0.90, compared to analysts' forecast of $0.72 [2] - In the fourth quarter, Delta reported a profit of $1.22 billion, or $1.86 per share, a nearly 45% increase year-over-year, with revenue of $16 billion, up 3% from 2025 [4] Revenue Breakdown - Main cabin ticket revenue fell 7% year-over-year to $5.62 billion in the fourth quarter, while premium ticket revenue rose 9% to nearly $5.7 billion, surpassing main cabin revenue for the first time [5] - For the full year, main cabin revenue remained higher than premium classes despite the recent trend [5] Market Conditions - Bookings from both leisure and corporate travelers have been strong at the start of the year, indicating robust demand [3] - CEO Ed Bastian expressed caution regarding future earnings projections due to geopolitical uncertainties and domestic policy risks [4]

Group 1 - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country conducting business with Iran, aiming to increase pressure on Tehran amid ongoing protests [2][3] - The U.S. goods and services trade with Iran was valued at $838.4 million in 2024, despite existing sanctions [3][4] - Iran's major trading partners include China, Türkiye, the UAE, Iraq, and India, with exports primarily consisting of petroleum and natural gas products [4] Group 2 - The announcement is expected to significantly impact global energy prices, given Iran's status as a major oil and gas producer with an output exceeding 4 million barrels per day [4] - There is a risk of potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping corridor for oil, which could lead to Brent crude prices spiking to $110 per barrel according to Goldman Sachs analysts [5] - Current WTI crude futures are trading at $59.72 per barrel, reflecting a 0.67% increase, while February natural gas futures are down to $3.340 per MMBtu [6]