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Group 1 - Money managers at BlackRock, Bridgewater, and Pimco are adjusting their portfolios in response to inflation concerns, with BlackRock building short positions in US Treasuries and gilts, Bridgewater favoring stocks over bonds, and Pimco valuing Treasuries with inflation adjustments [3][5] - The yield difference between ordinary Treasuries and inflation-protected notes has increased significantly in January, indicating rising inflation expectations, alongside a rise in inflation swaps [4] - Expectations of a strong US economy potentially reigniting price growth are influencing market strategies, particularly with the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, which may lead to quicker or deeper interest-rate cuts [5][7] Group 2 - Ben Pearson from UBS highlights a potential "inflationary boom" as a major risk that investors are underestimating, which could keep the Fed inactive in the first half of the year and lead to interest-rate hikes later [6] - Steven Barrow from Standard Bank predicts that the 10-year bond yield could rise to 5% from approximately 4.25% if the White House's desire for rate cuts is not met [6] - Money markets are currently pricing in 54 basis points of interest rate cuts by the end of the year, reflecting a slight increase in expectations [8] Group 3 - There is a contrast between the cautious approach of US investors and the more optimistic outlook in the euro zone, where investors believe inflation will remain at or below target levels [9]

Trade Policy and Inflation - Economist Paul Krugman argues that tariffs have increased U.S. inflation by exactly 0.8 percentage points [1] - Krugman identifies that tax receipts from customs duties rose from 0.3% of GDP pre-Trump to 1.1%, indicating a direct inflationary impact of 0.8 percentage points [2] - The HBS Pricing Lab supports this by estimating that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently 0.8 percentage points higher due to tariffs, aligning with the 2025 core PCE inflation nowcasts at 3% [3] Misconceptions about Tariff Impact - Krugman suggests that the perceived "puzzle" of low tariff inflation is a narrative rather than a mathematical reality [3] - He notes that the modest rise in prices corresponds with actual tariff rates, not headline rates, due to various exemptions and corporate maneuvers [4] - High tariffs led firms to utilize existing exemptions that were previously not worth the paperwork when tariffs were lower [4] Market Performance - The top U.S. indices closed mixed, with the S&P 500 index rising 0.23%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones index fell by 0.29% and 0.50%, respectively [5]

Market Reactions - U.S. futures and Asian shares declined due to concerns over President Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve chair, which heightened fears of a bubble in the artificial intelligence sector [1][3] - South Korea's Kospi index closed 5.3% lower at 4,949.67, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropping 6.3% and 8.7% respectively [2] - The S&P 500 futures fell by 1.1% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures decreased by 0.9% [3] Federal Reserve Nomination Concerns - Kevin Warsh's nomination to lead the Federal Reserve raises concerns about the potential loss of the Fed's independence, as Trump has advocated for more aggressive rate cuts [4][8] - The market's apprehension regarding Warsh's approach to interest rates has contributed to a surge in gold prices and a decline in the U.S. dollar's value over the past year [4] Commodity Market Impact - Gold prices fell by 3.9% and silver by 7.7% early Monday, following a significant rally that saw gold prices nearly double over the past year [5][11] - U.S. benchmark crude oil prices dropped by $3.19 to $62.02 per barrel, while Brent crude fell by $3.25 to $66.07 per barrel [6] Economic Indicators - A recent report indicated that U.S. wholesale inflation was higher than expected, which may pressure the Fed to maintain interest rates rather than cut them [9] - The longstanding belief is that the Fed should operate independently to make necessary but potentially unpopular decisions to control inflation, which is currently targeted at 2% [10]

Market Overview - The precious metals market experienced extreme volatility, with international gold prices plummeting from historical highs, leading to significant impacts on domestic futures, stocks, funds, and consumer markets [1] - On January 30, international gold prices fell sharply, losing over 11% in a single day, while silver prices dropped by 31.37%, marking the worst single-day performance since March 1980 [1] - Weekly performance showed a cumulative decline of 4.71% for gold and 22.50% for silver [1] Price Movements - Domestic gold prices also saw a significant drop, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange spot gold price falling to 1070.01 RMB per gram, a decrease of around 10% [3] - Major brands adjusted their gold jewelry prices from over 1700 RMB per gram to between 1500-1600 RMB per gram [3][4] - For instance, Chow Sang Sang reported a drop in the price of its gold jewelry from 1708 RMB to 1618 RMB per gram within two days [3] Consumer Behavior - Following the price drop, there was a surge in consumer interest in purchasing gold, particularly in Shenzhen's Shui Bei market, where prices fell below 1200 RMB per gram [6] - Many consumers expressed that buying gold now is significantly cheaper compared to previous days [6] Investor Reactions - Investors are increasingly concerned about further declines in precious metal prices, leading many to sell gold and silver items to cash out [10] - Reports indicated that some businesses experienced a rapid decline in gold buyback prices, with a drop from 1142 RMB to 1081 RMB per gram in just one day [10] - The volatility in gold prices has led to a cautious approach among investors, with many hesitating to sell due to fears of missing potential price recoveries [10] Market Supply Dynamics - Some suppliers in Shenzhen's Shui Bei market reported shortages of gold bars, attributing this to the recent price drop and the reluctance of suppliers to sell at lower prices [12] - Suppliers indicated that they are not willing to sell gold bars during such volatile conditions, leading to a decrease in available inventory [12] Banking Sector Adjustments - Several major banks, including ICBC, ABC, and CCB, have adjusted their gold investment services in response to the market volatility, issuing risk warnings to investors [14][16] - ICBC announced changes to its gold accumulation business, including limits on transactions during non-trading days [15] - CCB raised the minimum amount for personal gold accumulation to 1500 RMB, reflecting the increased market risks [16][19]

Core Insights - Gold and silver experienced significant price fluctuations, with gold falling as much as 6.3% and silver dropping to around $75 an ounce after reaching record highs [1][2] - The recent selloff was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, which strengthened the dollar and negatively impacted precious metals [3] - A crowded trade in precious metals, driven by geopolitical concerns and speculative buying, has led to extreme volatility and risk in the market [2][4] Price Movements - As of 9:21 a.m. Singapore time, gold was priced at $4,680.76 an ounce, down 4.4%, while silver declined 2.2% to $83.2965 [5] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1% after a previous gain of 0.9%, indicating a stronger dollar [5] Market Dynamics - The surge in precious metal prices over the past year was fueled by concerns over geopolitical instability and currency debasement, with significant buying from Chinese speculators [2] - The market's volatility was exacerbated by a record wave of call option purchases, which created upward price momentum as sellers hedged their positions [4]

TOKYO, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Japan's manufacturing activity grew at the fastest pace in about three and a half years in January, a ​private-sector survey showed, as strong customer demand drove an increase ‌in output and new orders. The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.5 in ‌January from 50.0 in December, the strongest level since August 2022. The 50.0 threshold separates expansion from contraction. "Japan's manufacturing industry propelled itself back into growth ...

南方财经记者 翁榕涛 实习生 胡剑铭 周内（1月26日至1月30日），大宗商品市场分化加剧。基本金属板块涨跌不一，贵金属板块冲高回 落。 具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨6.70%、原油上涨6.54%；黑色系板块，焦煤周下跌0.13%、 焦炭下跌0.03%、铁矿石下跌0.44%；基本金属板块，碳酸锂周下跌18.36%、沪锌上涨5.08%、沪镍下跌 5.63%；贵金属板块，沪金周上涨4.10%、沪银上涨11.92%；农产品板块，鸡蛋周下跌1.44%、生猪下跌 2.98%。 交易行情热点 热点一：投机情绪降温，黄金冲高后大幅回落 本周黄金期货市场经历剧烈波动，前期受地缘避险情绪推动创下历史新高后，因美联储政策预期生 变大幅回调。截至1月30日，沪金主力2604合约报1161.42元/克，周涨4.10%；伦敦金收于4880美元/盎 司，周跌2.07%，日内最大跌幅达9.29%，创40年来最大单日跌幅。 供给上，全球黄金供应保持稳定，矿山产量与回收量稳步释放，未出现明显缺口。2025年全球黄金 总需求达5002吨创历史新高，但供应端未出现大幅波动，供需格局相对均衡。央行售金规模有限，新兴 国家央行延续购金态势，进一 ...

Group 1 - The recent spike in gold and silver prices was characterized by a rapid increase, leading to a parabolic market behavior typical of late bull markets, attracting new buyers motivated by fear of missing out [1] - Gold and silver entered overbought territory, resulting in a significant drop of 15% for gold and 38% for silver within a 24-hour period, wiping out over $15 trillion from these markets, which is equivalent to half the GDP of the United States [2] - The drastic decline in prices was described as a "GOLD AND SILVER BLACK SWAN" event, highlighting the volatility and risk associated with these assets, even when perceived as safe [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's narrative shifted with the nomination of Kevin Warsh as a potential successor to Jerome Powell, indicating a change in monetary policy direction [4][5] - Warsh is known for advocating a smaller Federal Reserve footprint and a stricter approach to inflation, which could impact the attractiveness of gold and silver as hedges against easy monetary policy [6][7] - The long-standing belief that central banks would continue to provide stimulus and support markets may be challenged by Warsh's historical stance on monetary policy, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics for precious metals [7]

分组1 - Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 68K last month, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.4% [3] - The upcoming earnings reports from Alphabet and Amazon are anticipated to highlight AI demand and cost-cutting measures [2][5] - Amazon is projected to report an EPS of $1.94 on revenue of $211 billion, with potential for an upside surprise due to AWS capacity additions [5][6] 分组2 - Amazon's recent layoffs, approximately 10% of its corporate workforce, are seen as a shift towards AI-driven operations, which may enhance efficiency [6] - The total cryptocurrency market cap has decreased by about 4%, falling below $2.8 trillion, with Bitcoin dropping below $80K, marking its lowest level since April 2025 [8][9] - Citigroup, MetLife, and Valero are set to go ex-dividend, with payout dates in February and March, indicating ongoing income opportunities for investors [9]