Group 1: Market Overview - Amazon has announced a significant $38 billion computing deal with OpenAI, which will enhance OpenAI's access to computing power using Nvidia GPUs [5][1] - The Federal Reserve is currently evaluating its rate path, with a 69% chance of a rate cut in December being priced in by the markets, despite some Fed officials expressing doubts about further cuts this year [6][4] - The Dow is down approximately 213 points, while the S&P 500 shows a slight gain, indicating a mixed market performance [115][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - A report highlights slowing income growth for young workers, with real wage gains for those aged 25 to 29 being around 2%, which is significantly impacted by higher inflation [100][102] - The job market is experiencing a low hiring and low firing environment, which is particularly affecting young workers who rely on job switching for career advancement [105][106] - Concerns are raised about the structural shifts in employment due to AI, particularly in the tech sector, which may not align with traditional business cycle dynamics [26][32] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Chicago Fed President Austin Goulby expressed unease about front-loading rate cuts, citing inflation concerns and the need for careful observation of economic indicators [8][12] - Goulby noted that inflation has been above target for over four years, with recent core inflation running at an annualized rate of 3.6% [14][29] - The Fed is balancing its dual mandate of managing inflation while supporting employment, which is currently in tension due to the labor market dynamics [106][113] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Microsoft has signed a data center deal with Iron, a Neocloud provider, continuing the trend of significant investments in AI infrastructure [6][5] - Cisco has received an upgrade from UBS, driven by a multi-year growth cycle fueled by AI infrastructure demand [74] - Core Mining is acquiring New Gold for approximately $7 billion in an all-stock deal, reflecting ongoing consolidation in the mining sector [79]

Let me start with I did agree with the decision. I thought it was appropriate to take another bit off the policy rate. We have an economy that has been remarkably resilient, really weathered so many different things, and still consumers continue to spend.Businesses continue to invest. We continue to have good growth, but we still have inflation printing above our 2% target. And we need to get that down is gradually coming down, but is still too high.And importantly, we have a labour market that relative to ...

The crypto market saw a sharp correction on Nov. 3 after Federal Reserve official Austan Goolsbee said his threshold for cutting in December is higher than at previous meetings, dampening investor hopes for another round of monetary easing. “I’m not decided going into the December meeting,” Goolsbee said Monday in an interview with Yahoo Finance. “I am nervous about the inflation side of the ledger, where you’ve seen inflation above the target for four and a half years, and it’s trending the wrong way.” ...

(Corrects headline to show Miran says policy too restrictive, rather than not restrictive) By Howard Schneider WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Federal Reserve officials on Monday continued pressing competing views of where the economy stands and the risks facing it, a debate set to intensify ahead of the U.S. central bank's next policy meeting and in the absence of data suspended due to the federal government shutdown. In an appearance on the Bloomberg Surveillance television program, Fed Governor Stephen Miran r ...

But Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management, said: “What’s creeping in is this narrative about AI and when business plans will be demonstrated to guide investors about when they will see profits from the AI investments.”“Those companies are leading the way and capturing almost all the value in AI. They are able to secure the infrastructure required to serve their customers and are all seeing a positive inflection point in demand.”Gil Luria, of wealth managers D.A. Davidson, told CNBC: “The ma ...

Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - The central bank is cautious about front-loading rate cuts due to concerns over inflation and the job market, indicating a need for more data before making decisions [1][6][22] - There is a belief that rates will ultimately settle lower than current levels, but the timing and conditions for cuts are still uncertain [3][23] - Recent inflation data shows core inflation running at an annualized rate of 3.6% and core services at 4%, raising concerns about the inflation trajectory [7][22] Job Market Insights - The job market is showing signs of uncertainty, with recent layoff announcements from major companies like Amazon and UPS, and a negative ADP measure for September [14][15] - Despite the slowdown in payroll growth, the unemployment rate has remained stable, suggesting that the labor market is not in immediate distress [10][11] - The hiring rate is low, which is particularly challenging for new graduates and young workers, indicating a unique economic situation where both hiring and firing rates are low [17][18] Sector-Specific Observations - The housing sector is identified as weak, which is typically sensitive to interest rates, while consumer durables and business investment remain resilient [25][26] - The overall economy is described as solid, driven by consumer confidence, despite weaknesses in certain sectors affected by tariffs [27]

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said monetary policy remains restrictive and that he will continue to advocate for outsize interest-rate cuts. “The Fed is too restrictive, neutral is quite a ways below where current policy is,” Miran said Monday in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “Given my rather more sanguine outlook on inflation than some of the other members of the committee, I don’t see a reason for keeping policy as restrictive.” Most Read from Bloomberg WATCH: Federal Reserve Governor ...

Market Outlook - The market has shown strength during the traditionally weak period from June to October, with historical data indicating that it has been strong 100% of the time in November and December since 1950 [3] - Earnings power for the S&P 500 is accelerating, with sales growth tracking at approximately 8% this quarter, which is notable given the absence of a recession [4] - The "Magnificent Seven" companies have maintained stable headcount while experiencing revenue acceleration, leading to significant margin growth and mid-teens earnings growth [5] Labor Market and Corporate Margins - There has been a shift in corporate attitudes towards layoffs, with companies becoming more comfortable with the idea, which may positively impact margins [6] - The trend of labor hoarding is diminishing as companies recognize the benefits of AI, allowing for improved margins despite potential negative impacts on labor [7][8] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The likelihood of a rate cut in December is perceived to be lower than market expectations, which could lead to negative market reactions if it does not occur [9][10] - The upcoming change in the Federal Reserve regime in May 2026 may lead to lower interest rates and potential quantitative easing, which could create favorable conditions for corporate America [11] Inflation and Consumer Spending - Inflation has remained above 2% for five years, and the Fed's current stance suggests a shift towards a 2.5% to 3% inflation zone, which is seen as positive for risk assets [12][13] - The correlation between consumer spending and restaurant performance is declining, indicating that the S&P 500 is increasingly driven by the AI data center buildout trade rather than consumer behavior [17]

The Fed, as expected, cut rates by a quarter% and even with Jerome Powell saying that further rate cuts are not a foregone conclusion, the market is still pricing in a high probability of a cut in December. Powell reiterated signs of a slowing labor market and continued pressure on consumer prices as inflation has moved up since earlier in the year. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady amid a period of possible rate hikes as the country's new prime minister said the Japanese economy has so far weath ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a debate among its officials regarding the current state of the economy and the associated risks, which is expected to intensify ahead of the upcoming policy meeting due to a lack of new data caused by the federal government shutdown [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Perspectives - Fed Governor Stephen Miran advocates for deeper interest rate cuts, arguing that the buoyant stock and corporate credit markets do not indicate that monetary policy is too loose [2][3] - Miran expressed dissent against the recent decision to cut rates by a quarter percentage point, favoring a half-percentage-point reduction instead [3] - He believes that rising equity prices and narrow corporate credit spreads do not necessarily reflect the stance of monetary policy, especially as interest-sensitive sectors like housing show weakness [4] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is cautious about further rate cuts while inflation remains significantly above the Fed's 2% target, with expectations of acceleration through 2025 [5] - Goolsbee, a voting member of the Fed's policy committee, supported the recent rate cut but remains undecided about future cuts due to ongoing inflation concerns [6] - The contrasting views of Miran and Goolsbee highlight a significant divide among Fed officials regarding monetary policy direction, despite both having extensive economic backgrounds [6]