Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Approximately 54.5% of China's products maintain a price advantage for exports to the US despite new tariff levels, with expectations of high export growth in Q2 due to pre-existing orders and the US Christmas stocking season [2] - The financial data for April shows a combination of strong social financing and weak credit growth, influenced by seasonal factors and tariff impacts, with expectations for stabilization in major financial indicators moving forward [3] Group 2: Market Trends - Continued monetary policy easing is expected to favor small-cap stocks, with the CSI 2000 index showing significant small-cap characteristics and high potential for growth, suggesting investment opportunities in related ETFs [4] Group 3: Industry Research - In the banking sector, the April financial data indicates a widening gap between social financing and loan growth, with government investment supporting credit expansion [6] - The e-commerce advertising sector shows strong growth potential, with AppLovin's Q1 performance exceeding expectations, indicating robust competitiveness in traditional gaming advertising [7] - The real estate market in core cities shows a 5% year-on-year increase in new home transaction prices, with significant variances in second-hand home prices across major cities [8] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - Kunlun Energy, backed by China National Petroleum Corporation, is projected to achieve net profits of 6.649 billion, 7.124 billion, and 7.598 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with a recommendation for an "overweight" rating [10] - Jianghuai Automobile's performance is under pressure, with a revised net profit forecast of 190 million CNY for 2025, but potential recovery is anticipated in 2026 and 2027 with new model launches [11] - Yongxin Co., a leader in plastic soft packaging, is expected to see stable profit growth, with projected net profits of 511 million, 569 million, and 638 million CNY from 2025 to 2027, suggesting a "buy" rating [12]

Core Viewpoint - UBS Securities analyst Meng Lei suggests that the A-share market may regain an upward trend, recommending an increase in growth-style allocations due to potential reductions in US tariffs on Chinese products [1] Economic Indicators - The total weighted average tariff rate imposed by the US on Chinese products is currently approximately 43.5% [1] - A-share earnings are projected to grow by 3.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with the non-financial sector benefiting from an increase in GDP growth rate, recording a 4.2% year-on-year earnings growth [1] - A-share earnings are expected to show a quarter-on-quarter recovery trend throughout the year, supported by low base effects and additional supportive policies [1] Market Dynamics - The A-share market is currently trading at a significant discount compared to global emerging markets, which may lead to sustained net inflows of global capital [1] - In the short term, it is advised to tactically increase allocations to growth styles to enhance portfolio flexibility, with small-cap stocks likely to outperform large-cap stocks due to higher exposure to overseas revenues amid a rebound in market trading volume [1] Sector Focus - High beta sectors, particularly TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), sectors benefiting from domestic policy support, and sectors that previously underperformed due to tariff issues are expected to attract investor attention [1]

编者按：5月13日，瑞银策略师发布中国股票策略报告，预判A 股有望重拾上涨动力。瑞银建议投资者战术性增持成长型股 票，以提高投资组合的弹性。在市场成交量回升的情况下，小盘股因其较高的海外营收占比，表现可能优于大盘股。以下为 其主要观点： 中美双方联合宣布相互取消 91% 的累计加征关税，美国将暂停 24% 的对等关税，中国将暂停 24% 的反制关税。双方还将建 立机制，继续就经贸关系展开谈判。 瑞银集团(UBS)的中国经济学家预计，目前美国对中国商品的加权平均关税税率约为 43.5%。从微观层面来看，2024 年非金 融类 A 股上市公司的海外营收占比为 14.3%，电子和家电行业的这一比例更是超过三分之一(见图 4)。 鉴于基数较低(2024 年非金融企业每个季度的收益均同比下降，且降幅逐季扩大)，以及可能出台更多政策支持，瑞银预计今 年 A 股收益将逐季回升。 在估值方面，更明确的财政政策支持、进一步开放以及推动民营经济发展的结构性改革，还有长期资金的流入，都可能有助 于降低股权风险溢价。由于 A 股市场的估值仍大幅低于新兴市场(见图 6)，全球资金可能会持续净流入。 2025 年 A 股基准情形：盈利增 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower on April 29, with active sectors including construction decoration, beauty care, and banking, while TMT sectors like computers and electronics continued to adjust [1] - The AI ETF Huaxia (159381) on the ChiNext fell by 0.24%, but its constituent stock Bochuang Technology surged over 17%, indicating a mixed performance within the sector [1] - The global first commercial intelligent computing supernode was recently launched in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, suggesting a potential continuation of the partial recovery trend in the computing industry chain [1] Group 2 - After previous adjustments, the artificial intelligence sector has seen a significant decrease in crowding, with funds actively entering the market, as evidenced by the Huaxia AI ETF attracting a total of 11.4634 million yuan over the last five trading days [2] - The Huaxia AI ETF tracks the ChiNext AI index, with a daily fluctuation range of ±20%, and the median total market capitalization of its constituent stocks is only 15.4 billion yuan, indicating a focus on small and mid-cap stocks [2] - The ETF covers leading companies across various sub-sectors, including IDC computing leasing, optical modules, cloud computing, and domestic software [2]

以下文章来源于大马哈投资 ，作者我叫大马哈 大马哈投资 . 雪球2021年度基金影响力用户，做专业靠谱有深度的基金研究 长按扫码即可免费加入 熟悉我的朋友都知道 ， 我是小盘股的忠实粉丝 ， 一直以来的主要逻辑是觉得小盘股的长期业绩 表现并不比大盘股差 ， 然后在小盘股中比较容易用量化手段做出超额 ， 所以我配置了不少小盘 指数增强基金以长期持有 。 当然 ， 今天我在这里同大家聊小盘股则并非出于上述长期投资逻辑 ， 而是小盘股的业绩弹性出 发 ， 在偏暖的市场行情中有望给投资者带来更为更高的业绩锐度 。 从投资逻辑来说 ， 小盘股属于高风险偏好品种 ， 在市面情绪不佳时小盘股往往跌幅更大 ， 在市 场情绪较好时小盘股往往也会有着更高的涨幅 。 尽管2019年以来随着大盘蓝筹风格的崛起这一现 象已有所弱化 ， 但2019年以前这一现象是非常明显的 。 在2013-2015年的 " 互联网+ " 行情期间 ， 小盘股可谓风头正劲 ， 2012年12月4日至2015年6月12 日 ， 期间沪深300上涨152.99% ， 中证500上涨319.98% ， 中证1000上涨426.39% 。 尽管过去几年这一现象不 ...

今天几乎所有群都在热议琼瑶的去世，86岁的她选择在家中自杀的方式结束生命，并对公众留下了遗书和告别视频。 让我颇感触动的是她的遗书里有专门一段内容，是劝诫青少年不可以一时的挫折打击就放弃生命，要像她一样不辜负生命，不要错过属于自己的精彩。我 把相关内容引用一下： 注意，我「死亡」的方式，是在我生命的終站實行的!年輕的你們，千萬不要輕易放棄生命，一時的挫折打擊，可能是美好生命中的「磨 練」，希望你們經得起磨練，像我一樣，活到八十六、七歲，體力不支時，再來選擇如何面對死亡。但願那時，人類已經找到很人道的方式， 來幫助「老人」們，快樂的「歸去」! 親愛的你們，要勇敢，要活出強大的「自我」，不要辜負來世間一趟！這世間，雖然不是十全十美，也 有各種意外的喜怒哀樂！別錯過那些厲於你的精彩! 琼瑶遗书 自杀的人看多了，遗书也看多了，像她这样自杀还会考虑社会影响，自己已经死了还想着用遗书传播正向的人生观，这种情况不多见，说明她不是因为厌 世而离世，她确实在一个积极的心态下选择了了断。 写到这我回想起2019年的时候平鑫涛病危，琼瑶不忍丈夫被病魔折磨的神志不清，形容枯槁，建议对他实行安乐死，但遭到了平鑫涛前妻的几个孩子们的 反 ...