[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 3 Aug 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 利好暂缺叠加基本面走弱，回调蓄势以待政策发力 Weak Fundamentals and Absence of Catalysts Point to Consolidation Before Policy Boost 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们指出，短期资金加速流入导致市场过热，但在三季度经济数据承压背景下，市场或将进入调整窗口。目 前中国经济数据已从此前的结构性分化演变为整体趋弱，7月制造业PMI降至49.3，较6月的49.7回落，其中需求走 弱，而原材料价格在反内卷政策持续推进下上涨。建筑业PMI在房地产需求低迷、基建投资边际放缓的背景下同步 走 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong upward trend on July 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, reaching a new high for the year. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. However, over 3100 stocks in the market declined [1]. Sector Performance - The super hydropower concept stocks maintained strong performance, with several stocks, including China Power Construction, hitting the daily limit [2]. - Financial stocks, including brokerages and insurance companies, also showed collective strength, with Guosheng Financial Holdings reaching the daily limit [3]. Notable Stock Movements - Several stocks saw significant price increases, including: - Jikang Technology (+21.74%) at 43.01 yuan - Tiejian Heavy Industry (+20.07%) at 7.12 yuan - Deepwater Regulation Institute (+20.02%) at 27.82 yuan - Other notable gainers included Dawan Water Saving (+16.12%) and Xinjing Market (+12.36%) [3]. Future Outlook - Wanlian Securities predicts that the overall performance of A-share listed companies will improve in the first half of 2025, with high growth expected in high-concentration industries such as upstream resources, AI, and non-bank financial sectors. Attention should be paid to large-cap blue chips with improved performance and long-term profit expectations [5]. - The strategy team at China Merchants Securities notes that the Shanghai Composite Index has broken through key resistance levels, indicating a positive feedback loop of incremental capital inflow. The upcoming peak of earnings forecasts in mid-July will be crucial for market direction, with a focus on sectors such as electronics, machinery, pharmaceuticals, defense, and metals [6]. - Donghai Securities highlights that the recovery of the capital market is improving business margins, with a 32.8% year-on-year increase in new A-share accounts and a 61% increase in average daily trading volume to 1.39 trillion yuan. The underwriting scale for IPOs and refinancing has also seen significant growth [6].

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi Baifei Dairy Co., Ltd. is attempting a second IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange after previous attempts to list on different exchanges, highlighting the challenges faced by dairy companies in the current market environment [1] Company Summary - Baifei Dairy primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of dairy products, including sterilized milk, modified milk, fermented milk, pasteurized milk, and milk-containing beverages, using raw materials such as water buffalo milk and cow milk [1] - The company reported significant revenue growth during the reporting period from 2022 to 2024, with revenues of 780.80 million yuan, 1.075 billion yuan, and 1.422 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.28%, 37.69%, and 32.33% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to the company, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, showed a mixed performance with figures of 117.10 million yuan, 227.15 million yuan, and 299.65 million yuan, with growth rates of -11.27%, 93.98%, and 31.92% respectively [2] Industry Summary - The cost structure analysis indicates that a decrease in operating costs has been a key factor in the company's performance improvement, with gross profit margins increasing from 27.87% to 40.14% over the reporting period [3] - The average price of fresh milk has been declining, from 4.25 yuan per kilogram in February 2022 to 3.07 yuan per kilogram in April 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.3% [5] - The "China Agricultural Outlook Report (2025-2034)" suggests that the oversupply of fresh milk in China may see a turning point in the second half of 2025, with prices expected to stabilize and potentially rise [7] - Water buffalo milk remains a niche product in the market, facing challenges due to its higher fat content compared to traditional cow milk, which may deter health-conscious consumers [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (May 26 - May 30, 2025), the A - share market first rose on high volume due to the easing of Sino - US trade negotiations and then entered a volatile adjustment. The sector rotation speed has accelerated recently, and the volatile market pattern remains unchanged [11]. - The innovation drug sector continued to rise last week, driven by multiple favorable events. However, the market heat may have reached a phased high, and the phased market of innovation drugs may end once the strong logical support weakens [12]. - The "new consumption" market has spread from the prosperity of leading stocks to a beta market, and has now entered the marginal spread stage, but its sustainability is uncertain [13]. - The technology sector has reached a stage where layout directions can be explored, as small - cap stocks show signs of peaking and the TMT trading volume as a proportion of the total A - share trading volume has fallen to a relatively low level [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - The A - share market first rose on high volume and then oscillated last week. The WanDe All - A Index fell 0.02% for the whole week. The environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors led the gains, while the automobile, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and comprehensive sectors underperformed [11]. - As of May 30, the trading volume proportions of the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 indexes in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 19.59% and 33.26% respectively, both at 5 - year peak levels. Since 2020, the trading volume proportion of the CSI 2000 index has risen from less than 15% to over 30%, while that of the CSI 300 index has dropped from nearly 50% to less than 20%. The A - share market is a stock and shrinking market, and market participants are engaging in a stock game in small - and medium - cap stocks [11]. - The innovation drug sector continued to rise, driven by the approval of 11 innovative drugs from 8 Chinese companies on May 29 and important clinical data disclosed at the 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting from May 30 - June 3. However, the market heat may have reached a peak, and the phased market may end if strong logical support weakens [12]. - The "new consumption" market has spread from leading stocks to various directions such as new - listed Hong Kong - listed tea drinks, A - share pet and beauty care sectors. The market focus has shifted from pet food to non - liquor products, and the market has entered the marginal spread stage with uncertain sustainability [13]. - The technology sector has reached a stage for layout, as small - cap stocks show signs of peaking and the TMT trading volume proportion has declined. Upcoming industrial events in June may act as catalysts [14]. 3.1.2 Public Fund Market Dynamics - On May 30, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company optimized the compilation plan of the SSE 380 Index and launched the SSE 580 Index, forming a flagship broad - based index system of "SSE 50, SSE 180, SSE 380, and SSE 580". The index system covers 50% of the number of Shanghai - listed securities and nearly 90% of the market value [15]. - The SSE index system has established an "integrated two - wing" index brand of "flagship broad - based + science and technology innovation + dividend", which is an important part of promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market [16]. 3.2 Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Classification | Last Week | Last Month | Year - to - Date | Since Inception | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Active Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.12% | 1.45% | 4.59% | 5.44% | | Value Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.15% | 2.80% | 1.42% | 1.50% | | Balanced Stock Fund Preferred | 0.03% | 2.51% | 2.06% | - 0.17% | | Growth Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.01% | 0.94% | 9.74% | - 0.13% | | Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred | 3.78% | 6.65% | 23.08% | 6.62% | | Consumption Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.93% | 3.15% | 7.37% | 0.46% | | Technology Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.01% | - 0.44% | 2.05% | 3.65% | | High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.30% | - 0.95% | - 4.28% | - 8.90% | | Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.81% | 3.01% | 4.22% | - 3.14% | [17] 3.2.1 Active Stock Fund Preferred - The portfolio selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. Core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability in value, balanced, and growth styles, and balance the style distribution according to the CSI Active Stock Fund Index [18]. 3.2.2 Value Stock Fund Preferred - The value style includes deep - value and quality - value styles. The index is composed of 10 funds selected from deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification [20]. 3.2.3 Balanced Stock Fund Preferred - Balanced - style fund managers balance stock valuation and growth, and switch to stocks with higher cost - performance. The index is composed of 10 funds selected from relatively balanced and value - growth styles based on multi - period style classification [21]. 3.2.4 Growth Stock Fund Preferred - The growth style aims to capture the double - click opportunity of performance and valuation during a company's high - growth stage. The index is composed of 10 funds selected from active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification [24]. 3.2.5 Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the pharmaceutical industry based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). An evaluation system is established, and 15 funds are selected to form the index [24]. 3.2.6 Consumption Stock Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the consumption industry based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and representative indexes (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index [29]. 3.2.7 Technology Stock Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the technology industry based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and representative indexes (CITIC Electronics, etc.). An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index [30]. 3.2.8 High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the high - end manufacturing industry based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and representative indexes (CITIC Construction, etc.). An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index [34]. 3.2.9 Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the cyclical industry based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and representative indexes (CITIC Petroleum & Petrochemical, etc.). An evaluation system is established, and 5 funds are selected to form the index [36].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed significant differentiation last week (May 12 to May 16), with large-cap stocks performing well while small-cap and Sci-Tech Innovation Board faced slight pressure. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 rose by 1.22% and 1.12% respectively, indicating the defensive advantage of undervalued blue-chip stocks. The ChiNext 50 increased by 2.00%, reflecting the attractiveness of large-cap growth sectors. Conversely, the Sci-Tech 50 fell by 1.10%, possibly due to underwhelming earnings from some semiconductor companies and capital diversion to other tech sectors [2][12]. Industry Performance - Last week, 65% of sectors achieved positive returns, with beauty care, non-bank financials, and automotive sectors performing relatively well, rising by 3.08%, 2.49%, and 2.40% respectively. In contrast, media, defense, and computer sectors showed significant weakness, declining by 0.77%, 1.18%, and 1.26% respectively [2][14]. Fund Issuance - A total of 23 funds were issued last week, including 12 equity funds, 5 mixed funds, 5 bond funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF), with a total issuance of 24.004 billion units [2][20]. Fund Performance - The Wind China Fund Total Index rose by 0.17% last week. The ordinary equity fund index increased by 0.26%, while the mixed equity fund index rose by 0.30%. The bond fund index saw a slight decline of 0.05% [3][10]. Global Asset Review - Global markets exhibited significant divergence last week, with equity markets generally rising, driven by technology stocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased by 4.54% and 6.60% respectively, propelled by better-than-expected earnings from AI leaders like Nvidia. European markets also showed resilience, with the German DAX and French CAC both rising over 0.8%, reflecting enhanced economic resilience in the Eurozone. The Hang Seng Index in the Asia-Pacific region rose by 2.09%, influenced by positive signals from US-China trade talks [5][6]. Domestic Bond Market Review - Last week, the 10-year and 30-year government bond futures fell by 0.51% and 1.17% respectively, indicating upward pressure on yields. The short-term funding spread (R007-DR007) showed no significant compression compared to the previous week, while medium to long-term rates remained low [15][19].

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited significant structural differentiation from April 14 to April 18, with major indices showing mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19%, while the Shenzhen Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.54% and 0.64%, respectively [1] - The market sentiment was influenced by a shift in investment style, with funds moving from high-volatility technology sectors to traditional industries with stable cash flows. Blue-chip and high-dividend strategies performed well, while growth sectors continued to decline [1] Industry Performance - Concerns over supply chain disruptions led to a slowdown in economic recovery, affecting sectors such as industrials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and information technology, with the latter experiencing the largest decline, though not exceeding 0.8% [1] - Real estate, telecommunications services, and utilities showed relatively strong performance, with real estate rising by 3.47% [1] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 25 funds were issued last week, including 17 equity funds, 7 bond funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF), with a total issuance of 20.476 billion units [2][18] - The total index for Chinese funds increased by 0.02%, while the ordinary equity fund index decreased by 0.08%, and the mixed equity fund index fell by 0.04% [2] Global Asset Review - Global asset prices showed mixed performance, with U.S. indices under pressure, while European markets strengthened. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices fell by over 2%, while major Asian indices rose by over 2% [4] - In commodities, the energy sector led gains, while industrial metals showed mixed results. Gold prices rose nearly 3% due to increased risk aversion, reaching over $3,300 per ounce [4] Domestic Bond Market - The bond market remained stable, with the 10-year government bond futures rising by 0.04% and the 30-year futures increasing by 0.03%. Domestic long-term interest rates remained at historical lows [16]

湘潭永达机械制造股份有限公司 用。投资者应当以正式公告的招股说明书作为投资决定的依据。 保荐人（主承销商） 中国（上海）自由贸易试验区商城路 618 号 湘潭永达机械制造股份有限公司 招股说明书 Xiangtan Yongda Machinery Manufacturing Co., Ltd. 湘潭九华工业园伏林路 1 号 首次公开发行股票并在主板上市 招股说明书 （上会稿） 本公司的发行申请尚需经深圳证券交易所和中国证监会履行相应程序。 本招股说明书（上会稿）不具有据以发行股票的法律效力，仅供预先披露之 1-1-1 湘潭永达机械制造股份有限公司 招股说明书 | 发行股票类型 | 人民币普通股（A 股） | | --- | --- | | 本次公开发行股数 | 不超过 6,000.00 万股，且发行股数占发行后总股本的比例不低于 | | | 25.00%。本次发行全部为新股发行。 | | 每股面值 | 人民币 1.00 元 | | 每股发行价格 | 【】元/股 | | 预计发行日期 | 【】年【】月【】日 | | 拟上市的证券交易所和 | 深圳证券交易所主板 | | 板块 | | | 发行后总股本 | 不超过 ...

湘潭永达机械制造股份有限公司 Xiangtan Yongda Machinery Manufacturing Co., Ltd. 湘潭九华工业园伏林路 1 号 首次公开发行股票并在主板上市 招股说明书 （申报稿） 本公司的发行申请尚需经深圳证券交易所和中国证监会履行相应程序。 本招股说明书（申报稿）不具有据以发行股票的法律效力，仅供预先披露之 用。投资者应当以正式公告的招股说明书作为投资决定的依据。 保荐人（主承销商） 中国（上海）自由贸易试验区商城路 618 号 湘潭永达机械制造股份有限公司 招股说明书 发行人声明 中国证监会、交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对发行 人注册申请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其 对发行人的盈利能力、投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性判断或者保证。 任何与之相反的声明均属虚假不实陈述。 根据《证券法》规定，股票依法发行后，发行人经营与收益的变化，由发行 人自行负责；投资者自主判断发行人的投资价值，自主作出投资决策，自行承担 股票依法发行后因发行人经营与收益变化或者股票价格变动引致的投资风险。 1-1-1 湘潭永达机械制造股份有限公司 ...

湘潭永达机械制造股份有限公司 Xiangtan Yongda Machinery Manufacturing Co., Ltd. 湘潭九华工业园伏林路 1 号 首次公开发行股票并在主板上市 招股说明书 （申报稿） 本公司的发行申请尚需经深圳证券交易所和中国证监会履行相应程序。 本招股说明书（申报稿）不具有据以发行股票的法律效力，仅供预先披露之 用。投资者应当以正式公告的招股说明书作为投资决定的依据。 保荐人（主承销商） 中国（上海）自由贸易试验区商城路 618 号 湘潭永达机械制造股份有限公司 招股说明书 发行人声明 中国证监会、交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对发行 人注册申请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其 对发行人的盈利能力、投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性判断或者保证。 任何与之相反的声明均属虚假不实陈述。 根据《证券法》规定，股票依法发行后，发行人经营与收益的变化，由发行 人自行负责；投资者自主判断发行人的投资价值，自主作出投资决策，自行承担 股票依法发行后因发行人经营与收益变化或者股票价格变动引致的投资风险。 1-1-1 湘潭永达机械制造股份有限公司 ...