晨会纪要（R3） 晨会纪要 2025 年 11 月 24 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3834.89 | -2.45 | | 深证成指 | 12538.07 | -3.41 | | 创业板指 | 2920.08 | -4.02 | | 科创 50 | 1285.83 | -3.19 | | 北证 50 | 1377.39 | -4.71 | | 沪深 300 | 4453.61 | -2.44 | 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 2024-11 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 上证指数 沪深300 | 何晨 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号:S0530513080001 | | | hechen@hnchasing.com | | | 管诗睿 | 研究助理 | | guanshirui@hnchasing.com | | 晨会聚焦 【财经要闻】中国旅游集团牵头，组建新央企 三、行业及公司动态 【行业动态】稳定畜牧业生产工作推进会召 ...

证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） 短期保持谨慎，静待市场企稳 财信证券宏观策略周报（11.24-11.28） 2025 年 11 月 23 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 -0.75 1.82 13.86 沪深 300 -1.86 4.27 11.74 -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 2024-11 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 上证指数 沪深300 黄红卫 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 huanghongwei@hnchasing.com 相关报告 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 大势研判。上周在海外市场调整影响下，万得全 A 指数阶段性向下调整，跌 破震荡调整区间，短期仍需合理控制仓位，静待指数企稳信号出现。一是从 资金面来看，11 月底之前机构倾向于守住全年收益，加仓意愿不强，但 12 月 中旬开始，机构资金将逐步开始布局 2026 年方向，存在"抢跑"的预期；二 是中央经济工作会议通常在 12 月中旬召开，将为明年经济工作指明方向，预 计在中央经济工作会议前后，政策预期利好将支撑市场；三是从技术形态来 看，201 ...

A股三大指数集体收跌,高开低走,代表大盘蓝筹的上证指数相对抗跌,而代表科技成长的创 业板指和科创50指数跌幅均超过1%,上证指数收盘逼近3930点关键支撑位,若后续失守, 可能下探3900点关口。 2025.11. 20 1452家上涨 涨跌停比 个股呈普跌格局,市场整体情绪较为低迷,投资 者风险偏好下降,盘面上,银行、能源金属板块 活跃,有机硅、BC电池、煤炭板块表现低迷,美 容护理、旅游酒店、食品饮料等消费类板块集体 走弱。 两市成交额 万亿元 ▼ 1.03% 两市成交额连续缩量,做空动能虽未集中释 放,但做多力量更为匮乏,投资者入场意愿极 低,资金强烈聚焦于个别板块的龙头股,市场 基础活跃度依然有保障。 资金情绪 主力资金净流出 散户资金净流入 今天你冲了这是散 11/20 3.78% 个百分点 食 加 足 加仓 23.78% 减仓 23.00% 按兵不动 53.22% 你觉得下个交易日是涨是跌? 11/20 8 2% 61 e) 个自分点 器 成 机构整体偏向谨慎和防御,调仓换股明显,机构资金从部分交易拥挤、估值较高的科技成长板块流出,转 向石油石化、煤炭、钢铁等估值较低或具有防御属性的板块;散户处于 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights an improvement in inflation data, leading to a temporary shift in market investment styles, with CPI rising from -0.3% to 0.2% and PPI improving from -2.3% to -2.1% [1] - The recent slight improvement in inflation data indicates a reduction in price downward pressure, with rising prices in upstream resources and some industrial products triggering local market hotspots [1] - The consumer sector, which had been quiet for a long time, has seen a significant rebound due to the CPI returning to positive territory, reflecting the main characteristics of the year-end consolidation market: sector rotation, unclear main lines, and balanced allocation [1] Group 2 - On Monday, the stock market experienced a rebound with increased trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index consolidating before a strong upward movement, closing near its highest point [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index showed weaker performance compared to the Shanghai Composite, primarily adjusting throughout the day before finally turning upward, closing above the 5-day moving average [1] - The market's focus is expected to remain on the macroeconomic data for October, which will guide adjustments in asset and industry allocation based on economic conditions [1]

Group 1 - As of October 26, 2023, 1,311 A-share listed companies have disclosed their Q3 reports, with 773 companies reporting a year-on-year net profit growth of approximately 58.96% [1] - Significant profit growth is observed in sectors such as building materials, steel, electronics, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, non-bank financials, computers, and retail [1] - A total of 60 A-share companies have announced dividend plans for Q3 2025, with 42 companies proposing cash dividends exceeding 1 yuan per 10 shares [1] Group 2 - Foreign institutional investors have shown an active stance in Q3 2023, focusing on high-growth performance, technology, and high-end manufacturing sectors, particularly in semiconductors, communications, and new materials [2] - Companies such as Zhongcai Technology, Placo New Materials, and others have seen significant foreign investment, with some experiencing notable stock price increases [2] Group 3 - The A-share market has shown resilience amid recent fluctuations, with public funds maintaining high levels of research activity, particularly favoring the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors [4] - The performance of active equity funds has varied significantly, with those focusing on technology and emerging industries outperforming those with a value-oriented approach [4] Group 4 - The A-share market has experienced a style shift, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks, as evidenced by the Shanghai Composite Index rising 4.33% in the past month [7] - Fund managers believe that the market is moving towards larger market capitalization stocks due to economic stabilization and the ongoing Q3 reporting period [7] Group 5 - By the end of Q3 2023, social security funds held shares in 135 stocks, with a total holding of 2.377 billion shares valued at 51.33 billion yuan, indicating a strategic focus on technology sectors [8] - The funds have increased their positions in 63 new stocks, with a significant number showing year-on-year profit growth [8] Group 6 - The ETF market has maintained high activity levels, with the total market value of ETFs in Shanghai exceeding 4 trillion yuan and in Shenzhen surpassing 1.6 trillion yuan, indicating a competitive landscape among brokerage firms [9] Group 7 - Nearly 2,000 public funds have reported a total profit of 101.3 billion yuan for Q3 2023, with a strong focus on technology innovation assets [10] - The investment trend is shifting towards hard technology sectors, reflecting an increase in investor risk appetite and a focus on high-growth sub-industries [10]

Core Insights - The A-share index opened collectively higher on October 21, with the MSCI China A50 Connect Index rising approximately 1.4%, led by stocks such as ZTE, Luxshare Precision, Industrial Fulian, China Shipbuilding, and CATL [1] Market Behavior - Tianfeng Securities suggests that with the annual profit effect largely realized, fund behavior in the fourth quarter may become more conservative, influenced by policy expectations and performance verification windows, leading to a potential shift towards "profit quality + valuation safety" in large-cap blue chips [1] - Historical data from 2005 to 2024 indicates that while micro-cap stocks have a higher win rate, the differences among various styles are not significant, suggesting a risk rebalancing characteristic may emerge in the fourth quarter [1] Industry Performance - Leading sectors are primarily concentrated in finance, stability, and cyclical industries, reflecting a decrease in investor risk appetite as year-end approaches, with a tendency to lock in annual gains [1] A50 ETF Overview - The A50 ETF (159601) closely tracks the MSCI China A50 Connect Index, providing a packaged investment in 50 leading interconnected stocks, offering balanced coverage of core A-share market assets [1] - The sector distribution of its constituent stocks includes electronics, banking, food and beverage, and power equipment [1] - The top ten holdings are Zijin Mining, CATL, Industrial Fulian, Kweichow Moutai, Haiguang Information, Cambricon Technologies, BYD, Heng Rui Medicine, China Merchants Bank, and ZTE [1]

Core Conclusions - In the context of a fully realized profit effect throughout the year, fourth-quarter funding behavior tends to be conservative, with market style often shifting towards "profit quality + valuation safety" large-cap blue chips [2][3] - The overall market shows a tendency for risk rebalancing in the fourth quarter, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and performance strategies showing positive excess returns relative to the entire A-share market, indicating a shift towards fundamental certainty as the trading focus moves from "high elasticity" to "high stability" [3][9] - Leading sectors in the fourth quarter are concentrated in financial, stable, and cyclical sectors, reflecting a decrease in investor risk appetite and a demand to lock in annual returns [3][17] Calendar Effects in Q4 - The fourth quarter is characterized by a tendency for conservative funding behavior, with a shift towards large-cap blue chips that emphasize profit quality and valuation safety [9][21] - Historical data from 2005 to 2024 shows that micro-cap stocks have a leading win rate, but differences among styles are not significant, suggesting a potential risk rebalancing feature in Q4 [9][17] - The trading behavior in Q4 tends to exhibit reduced volatility, with a marginal tightening of market liquidity and a decrease in average turnover rate [3][9] Switching Conditions Assessment - Attention should be paid to whether the conditions for switching to undervalued sectors are maturing and whether the prosperity of high-valued sectors can be sustained [21] - Some financial, cyclical, and consumer sectors remain at historically low valuations, indicating safety margins and switching potential; however, merely relying on low valuations may not drive a sustainable market trend without policy catalysts and improvements in economic data [21][21]

Group 1 - Domestic macroeconomic data and the third-quarter reports of listed companies are being disclosed, leading to a decrease in market risk appetite [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics is gradually releasing September macroeconomic data, indicating that the economy remains stable overall [1] - The third-quarter reports will provide more information about the real economy, causing investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach during this period [1] Group 2 - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 30-day moving average [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index saw a larger decline, indicating a phase of catch-up decline [1] - Market volume shrank compared to the previous week, with the main focus on high-dividend sectors such as banking and coal [1] Group 3 - Large-cap blue-chip stocks showed relative resilience, while small-cap and technology stocks experienced larger declines [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has entered a horizontal consolidation phase since the end of August, facing resistance above and support below [1] - The previous adjustment low remains above the market high of 2021, indicating that the original resistance level has become an important support level [1] Group 4 - After the holiday, the market attempted to break upward but fell back into consolidation due to negative information, suggesting that more time is needed for digestion and consolidation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "827 New Policy" implemented by the China Securities Regulatory Commission has led to significant changes in the A-share IPO market, marking the end of the rapid growth era and transitioning to a more precise selection and clearer sector positioning phase [1] Company Summary - Hongxing Technology voluntarily withdrew its IPO application due to changes in the main board listing rules, which increased the requirements for large-cap blue-chip companies, making it a strategic decision rather than a response to operational or compliance issues [2][3] - The company had previously met the listing requirements when it submitted its IPO application in December 2022, but subsequent policy adjustments created a mismatch between its profile and the new main board positioning [3] - Despite withdrawing from the IPO process, Hongxing Technology remains committed to high-quality development and plans to increase investment in core technology and product research to strengthen its competitive edge in the quartz crystal component sector [1][4] Industry Context - The quartz crystal component industry has faced challenges due to a global economic downturn, leading to a decline in demand for consumer electronics, with a 3.2% year-on-year drop in global smartphone shipments in 2023 [5] - The industry is expected to recover starting in Q1 2024, driven by the completion of inventory destocking and the introduction of new technologies in AI and optical communications [6] - Hongxing Technology's revenue is projected to grow by 4.8% to 567 million yuan in 2024, with improvements in profit quality and cash flow [6] Financial and Legal Considerations - Concerns regarding the company's historical high dividend payouts and ongoing equity litigation have been addressed, with the company clarifying that the litigation has been resolved and that its dividend practices are compliant with regulations [7][8] - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of 51.88% from 2021 to 2023, which is below the 80% threshold considered excessive [7][8] Strategic Direction - Hongxing Technology aims to focus on independent development, enhancing its core quartz crystal business while adapting its capital strategy to align with its growth stage [9][10] - The company plans to invest in R&D, expand its market presence, and increase production capacity in response to market demand [9][10] - The withdrawal from the IPO process is viewed as an opportunity to refine its listing quality and align with the evolving capital market landscape [11]

Group 1 - The macro growth factor continues to rise, while inflation indicators show a weakening rebound, with domestic CPI turning negative at -0.4% and PPI's decline narrowing to -2.9%, indicating persistent internal demand issues [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are driving upward global liquidity expectations, benefiting Asian equity markets, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 5.94% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.31% [4][9] - The A-share market shows a preference for growth styles, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.48%, while small-cap indices outperform large-cap blue chips [4] Group 2 - Recommendations for asset allocation include favoring high-grade credit bonds in the bond market, adjusting duration flexibly, and focusing on bank and insurance sector movements [5] - In the overseas equity market, the report suggests monitoring interest rate-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar and significantly raised interest rate cut expectations [5] - For gold, it is recommended to increase allocations to gold and silver as they are core assets during the interest rate cut cycle, with expectations for Shanghai gold to break previous highs [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall liquidity environment remains supportive for market valuation recovery and structural trends, with a significant decrease in average daily trading volume in the A-share market [56] - The A-share valuation levels have increased, with the price-to-earnings ratio rising to 50.38 times and the price-to-book ratio reaching 5.60 times, suggesting that market expectations for future corporate earnings may be overly optimistic [60] - The report highlights that the earnings expectations for A-shares are weaker than historical averages, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.3% and revenue growth rate of 5.9% [61]