跨境电商能够促进消费市场多元化、助力更多中小微企业参与国际贸易并促进全球经济合作。 近日，国务院发布批复，同意在海南全岛和秦皇岛等15个城市（地区）设立跨境电子商务综合试验区， 同时撤销在海口市、三亚市、阿拉山口市设立的跨境电子商务综合试验区。 根据批复要求，跨境电子商务综合试验区建设要全面深化改革开放，坚持创新驱动发展，复制推广综合 试验区成熟经验做法，发挥跨境电子商务助力传统产业转型升级、促进产业数字化发展的积极作用，推 动外贸优化升级，加快建设贸易强国。 商务部中国国际电子商务中心宏观消费首席专家李政波接受第一财经记者专访时表示，过去十年，在综 试区建设带动下，我国跨境电商进出口规模快速增长，占外贸进出口的比重由不足1%提升至约7%。 在他看来，面对复杂严峻的外部环境，跨境电商能够促进消费市场多元化、助力更多中小微企业参与国 际贸易并促进全球经济合作，具有独特优势。 明晰跨境电商赋能产业带发展路径 二是依托区位比较优势，广东、浙江、山东、河南、广西、重庆、陕西等地借力地理区位优势及海陆空 港开放通道，推动"海陆空铁"协同共建，共享空运专线、中欧班列等通道线路及外贸新型基础设施，便 捷产品通达全球。 三是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the $800 de minimis exemption policy by the U.S. has significantly impacted cross-border e-commerce, leading to increased costs and operational challenges for Chinese sellers and platforms, prompting a reevaluation of business models and logistics strategies [2][3][14]. Cost Increase and Efficiency Decline - The $800 de minimis exemption, which simplified customs processes for low-value goods, has been a major driver of cross-border e-commerce growth, particularly benefiting Chinese small sellers [5][6]. - The cancellation of this policy means that all packages valued under $800 will now incur a duty of 120% of their value or a flat fee of $100, leading to a substantial increase in costs for sellers who previously enjoyed zero tariffs [7][9]. - The number of low-value packages processed by U.S. Customs has increased dramatically, from 139 million in 2015 to over 1.3 billion in 2024, highlighting the significance of the de minimis policy for cross-border trade [6]. Industry Restructuring - The policy change is expected to accelerate market consolidation, favoring larger sellers with robust supply chains who can absorb the new costs, while smaller sellers face greater survival pressures [13][14]. - Many sellers have already paused shipments to the U.S. or are considering exiting the market due to the increased logistics costs and uncertainties [2][9]. Strategic Responses - In response to the new costs, some sellers and platforms have opted to raise prices, with average price increases reported at around 30% for various product categories on platforms like Amazon [9][10]. - The shift towards overseas warehouses is anticipated, as sellers look to mitigate costs and improve delivery times, although this requires significant upfront investment and carries inventory risks [10][11][12]. - The transition to overseas warehouses may become a mainstream strategy, with platforms like Temu and SHEIN already pushing for a "semi-managed" model to enhance inventory management and fulfillment capabilities [10][14]. Long-term Implications - The cancellation of the de minimis exemption is seen as a step towards a more mature and regulated phase of cross-border e-commerce, with a potential shift from price competition to value competition, emphasizing branding and compliance as core competitive advantages [14].

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the $800 de minimis exemption by the U.S. has significantly impacted the cross-border e-commerce landscape, forcing sellers to reassess their business models and logistics strategies [1][3][10] Group 1: Policy Changes and Impact - The U.S. officially terminated the $800 de minimis exemption on May 2, 2024, which previously allowed low-value goods from China to enter the U.S. without tariffs [1][3] - This policy change is expected to lead to increased logistics costs and longer delivery times for cross-border e-commerce, prompting sellers to either raise prices, shift to overseas warehouses, or explore markets outside the U.S. [1][6][10] - The number of low-value packages processed by U.S. Customs surged from 1.39 million in 2015 to over 1.3 billion in 2024, highlighting the significance of the de minimis policy for cross-border trade [3] Group 2: Seller Responses and Market Dynamics - Many sellers, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, are pausing shipments to the U.S. due to increased costs, with some opting to refund unshipped orders [1][4] - Major platforms like Temu and SHEIN have announced price increases averaging 30% across various product categories due to rising operational costs [6] - The cancellation of the de minimis exemption is likely to accelerate market consolidation, favoring larger sellers with robust supply chains while putting smaller sellers under significant pressure [9][10] Group 3: Future Trends and Strategies - The shift towards overseas warehouses is anticipated as sellers seek to maintain market presence in the U.S. despite increased costs [7][10] - The transition to overseas warehouses requires upfront investment and poses risks related to inventory management, which may be challenging for smaller sellers [8][9] - The industry is expected to evolve towards a more mature and regulated phase, with a potential shift from price competition to value competition, emphasizing brand and compliance as core competitive advantages [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue driven by strong demand for overseas warehouses, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 45% in 2024, reaching 5.67 billion yuan. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47% to 340 million yuan due to reduced sales from overseas warehouses [1][11] - The overseas warehouse business saw a remarkable revenue increase of 155% in 2024, amounting to 2.423 billion yuan, benefiting from scale advantages and improved bargaining power within the cross-border logistics supply chain [2] - The company's independent brand products accounted for 73.84% of its main business revenue, with cross-border e-commerce sales growing by 14% to 2.026 billion yuan, and independent site sales increasing by 22% to 820 million yuan [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.67 billion yuan, a 45% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 340 million yuan, down 47% [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 29.15%, a decrease of 7.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the high growth of low-margin overseas warehouse business [4] Overseas Warehouse Business - The overseas warehouse business generated 2.423 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a gross margin of 10.4%, down 2 percentage points year-on-year. The company expanded its overseas warehouse area significantly, reaching 662,100 square meters [2] Cross-Border E-Commerce - The independent site sales represented 40% of the cross-border e-commerce revenue, with a total of 34.1 million buyers on independent sites, reflecting a 36% year-on-year increase [3] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 7.39 billion yuan, 8.42 billion yuan, and 9.54 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 414 million yuan, 496 million yuan, and 588 million yuan [11]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Lege Co., Ltd. (乐歌股份) has experienced significant growth in its overseas warehouse business, although its profitability is temporarily under pressure. The company maintains a "buy" rating despite the challenges faced in the cross-border e-commerce sector [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.67 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 45.3%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 340 million yuan, down 47.0% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.54 billion yuan, an increase of 37.7%, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, down 35.2% [2]. - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards due to increased competition and trade friction, with expected net profits of 363 million yuan, 439 million yuan, and 525 million yuan respectively [2]. Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 29.1%, a decrease of 7.4 percentage points, while the net profit margin fell to 5.9%, down 10.3 percentage points [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 25.9%, a decline of 5.4 percentage points, with a net profit margin of 3.4%, down 3.8 percentage points [3]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to several factors, including reduced non-recurring gains from overseas warehouse sales, increased R&D investments, and high shipping costs impacting cross-border e-commerce profits [3]. Business Segment Performance - The overseas warehouse business generated revenue of 2.42 billion yuan in 2024, a remarkable increase of 154.8%, with a gross margin of 10.4% [4]. - The cross-border e-commerce segment achieved revenue of 2.03 billion yuan, up 14.3%, with independent site revenue growing by 22.0% to 820 million yuan [4]. - The company has established a diversified sales model covering various channels, and its production capacity for linear drive lift systems has reached 2.5 million sets annually, leading the global market [4]. Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about future growth driven by increasing e-commerce penetration in the U.S. and strengthening brand power of Chinese cross-border e-commerce [4]. - The dual growth engines of cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouses are expected to continue driving overall revenue growth [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.67 billion (+45.33%) and a net profit of 336 million (-46.99%) for 2024, with Q4 revenue at 1.695 billion (+39.38%) and net profit at 70 million (-39.71%) [1][4]. - The cross-border e-commerce business showed strong growth, with revenue reaching 2.42 billion (+154.8%) in 2024, and the company expanded its overseas warehouse presence to 21 locations [2][4]. - The overall gross margin decreased to 29.1% (-7.4 percentage points) and net margin to 5.9% (-10.3 percentage points) due to increased operational costs and investments in new business models [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 56.70 billion, with a significant increase of 45.33% compared to the previous year. However, the net profit saw a decline of 46.99% to 3.36 billion [1][5]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 29.1%, down from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 5.9% [3][5]. Business Segments - The overseas warehouse business generated 24.2 billion in revenue, marking a growth of 154.8%. The company has established 21 overseas warehouses with a total area of 662,000 square meters [2][4]. - The independent e-commerce platform performed well, contributing 8.2 billion (+22.0%) to the total cross-border e-commerce revenue of 20.3 billion (+14.3%) [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 360 million, 448 million, and 535 million respectively, reflecting a growth of 7%, 24%, and 19% year-on-year [4][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 14, 11, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5].

Group 1: Market and Regulatory Updates - Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced the Labor Day market closure from May 1 to May 5, 2025, resuming normal operations on May 6 [1] - Seven departments issued a plan for the digital transformation of the pharmaceutical industry, emphasizing the integration of artificial intelligence across the entire industry chain [2] - High-profile logistics platform GaoLu Group, backed by Hillhouse Capital, is seeking $100 million in private credit financing for asset acquisitions [3] Group 2: Company Financial Performance - Shenjian Co. reported a 2024 revenue of 2.418 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.97%, but a net profit increase of 32.29% to 33.65 million yuan, proposing a cash dividend of 0.5 yuan per 10 shares [6] - Jingwei Co. achieved a 2024 revenue of 673 million yuan, up 30.79%, but a net profit decline of 36.76% to 35.54 million yuan, proposing a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan per 10 shares [7] - Minsheng Health reported a 2024 revenue of 641 million yuan, a 10.23% increase, with a net profit of 91.83 million yuan, up 7.24%, proposing a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan per 10 shares [8] - Wangsu Technology's Q1 2025 net profit reached 192 million yuan, a 38.54% increase, with a revenue of 1.235 billion yuan, up 10.26% [9] - Beilu Pharmaceutical reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 283 million yuan, a 36.23% increase, with a net profit of 14.54 million yuan, up 26.13% [10] - Huning Co. reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 64.51 million yuan, a 4.37% increase, but a net profit decline of 45.68% to 3.61 million yuan [11] Group 3: Corporate Governance and Compliance - Pioneer's fund underwent significant management changes following a change in actual control, with the chairman resigning for personal reasons [4] - Hu Haiquan's private equity funds received regulatory warnings for failing to fulfill fiduciary duties and risk assessments during fundraising [5] - RNG's affiliated company was reported to owe 82,000 yuan in taxes [5]

跨境电商品类持续扩张，表现亮眼。公司智能家居、健康办公产品品类不断丰富，在保持升降桌主打产 品优势的同时，利用线性驱动核心技术以及品牌、渠道协同优势，实现销售收入稳中有升。公司跨境电 商模式下，新品开拓卓有成效，且性价比不断提升，高中低不同价格带满足更多用户需求，2024 年跨 境电商销售收入20.26 亿元，同比增长14.28%，电动沙发、人体工学椅等新品类逐渐起量。 本报告导读： 公司业绩符合预期，自营海外仓的规模效应有望逐步显现。 投资要点： 调整盈利预期 ，维持"增持"评级。公司业绩低于我们的预期，考虑外贸环境的不确定性，我们下调公 司2025-2026 年盈利预期，并新增2027 年盈利预期，预计公司2025-2027 年EPS 为1.15/1.29/1.61元 （2025-2026 年原1.68/1.95 元），参考行业估值水平，考虑公司前瞻布局自建海外仓的成本优势赋予的 估值溢价，给予公司2025 年16xPE，下调目标价至18.44 元，维持"增持"评级。 海外仓业务保持高增长。2024 年公司海外仓实现营收24.23 亿元，同比增长154.76%，毛利率10.37%， 同比降低2.32pct ...

Core Insights - The demand for cross-border logistics is surging due to the increasing popularity of Chinese e-commerce apps overseas, particularly in the U.S. market [1][3][5] - The rapid rise in downloads of apps like Taobao and Dunhuang has led to a significant increase in cross-border package consolidation services, with the Cainiao app making notable gains in rankings [1][3][5] Group 1: E-commerce App Performance - Chinese cross-border e-commerce apps are gaining recognition in the U.S., with Dunhuang reaching the second position in the Apple App Store's free overall chart and leading in the shopping category [3][5] - Taobao's download ranking surged to first place in France and second in Canada and the UK, indicating a strong presence in Western markets [5] - Chinese apps occupy three out of the top five spots in the U.S. iOS e-commerce app rankings, showcasing their growing influence [5] Group 2: Logistics and Consolidation Services - Cainiao has launched cross-border consolidation services in regions like the U.S. and Singapore, allowing consumers to consolidate multiple packages for shipping [4] - The service enables consumers to track their packages throughout the shipping process, enhancing the overall logistics experience [4] - Cainiao's ability to merge multiple orders for shipment has become increasingly popular among overseas consumers, meeting the demand for bulk purchases from Chinese e-commerce platforms [4] Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The cross-border e-commerce sector in China is robust, with over 120,000 entities and more than 2,500 overseas warehouses established [5] - The overseas warehouse model is expected to become a standard logistics solution for cross-border e-commerce sellers, driven by increasing market demand [5] - Companies are likely to shift from low-cost competition to brand development and global supply chain strategies in response to new policy environments and trade barriers [6]