国家发展改革委7月1日发布的公告显示，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，自2025年7月1日24时起，国内 汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别上涨235元和225元。这是今年以来成品油零售限价首次实现"三 连涨"。 据金联创测算，本次调价落地后，折合92号汽油上调0.18元/升，95号汽油上调0.2元/升，0号柴油上调 0.19元/升。按油箱容量为50升的小型家用车来算，加满一箱油约多花8元左右，终端用户用油成本将继续 增加。 金联创成品油分析师马建彩表示，本计价周期内，消息面令国际原油市场波动较大，原油价格走势急涨急 跌。首先，美国能源信息署数据显示，美国原油库存大幅减少；以伊冲突持续升级后，市场担心局势恶化 影响石油供应，国际油价连续上涨。随后，地缘冲突缓和，国际油价大幅下跌，油价基本回落至冲突之前 的水平。此后，美国原油库存减少以及投资者对旺季能源需求存向好的预期，令国际油价再小幅反弹。 本次调价对和物流企业来说，成本有所增加。隆众资讯数据显示，对满载50吨货物的物流运输车辆而言， 平均每行驶一百公里，燃油费用增加7.6元左右。按市区每100公里耗油7升至8升的车型来算，平均每行 驶一百公里，费用增加1.3 ...

尽管需求疲软、供应充足，利雅得仍指导石油输出国组织加快其计划中的产量恢复，这一意外逆转导致 油价在 4 月份短暂跌至四年低点。（彭博） 八个主要的 OPEC+ 成员国已同意在过去三个月中每月增产 41.1 万桶。几位不愿透露姓名的代表表示， 他们的国家已准备好在 7 月 6 日开会时考虑 8 月份再次增产。 【报道：OPEC+考虑再次大幅增产石油】OPEC+ 将在下个月的会议上考虑延长超大规模增产计划，该 组织领导人沙特阿拉伯将带头努力夺回市场份额。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, oil prices rose significantly due to geopolitical situations. The US announced a successful air - strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, and Iran declared retaliation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A cease - fire between Israel and Iran was reached on Tuesday. Fundamentally, EIA data showed a draw of over 1 billion barrels in US commercial inventories, and global oil product inventories were basically flat. Diesel strengthened significantly due to supply disruptions. The crude oil monthly spread continued to strengthen, approaching 2022 levels. The medium - to - long - term fundamental oversupply situation of crude oil remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are highly amplified by geopolitics [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - A source said Russia is willing to support a new round of oil production increase at the July 6 OPEC+ meeting if deemed necessary, and they are considering another production increase in August [5] - On June 25, US President Trump said the US will hold talks with Iran next week, believed the military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended but might resume, and stated the US won't give up pressuring Iran or take over oil [5] - According to the Wall Street Journal, Shell is in early talks to acquire BP [5] 2. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending June 20, US crude oil exports decreased by 91,000 barrels per day to 4.27 million barrels per day, while domestic production increased by 400 barrels to 13.435 million barrels per day. Commercial crude inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 5.836 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a 1.39% decline [5] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.049 million barrels per day, a 1.6% decrease from the same period last year. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 237,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [6] - In the week ending June 20, US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 5.944 million barrels per day, an increase of 440,000 barrels per day from the previous week [6] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased, with production from major refineries rising and that from independent refineries falling. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel at local refineries both increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, and that of local refineries improved month - on - month [6] 3. Weekly Price Data - From June 19 to June 25, WTI crude oil prices changed from an unspecified value to 64.92, with a change of 0.55; BRENT prices changed from 78.85 to 67.68, a change of 0.54; DUBAI prices changed from an unspecified value to 69.12, a change of - 0.01. Other related products also showed various price changes [3]

据一位知情人士透露，如果石油输出国组织联盟（OPEC+）认为有必要，俄罗斯愿意在下次OPEC+会 议上再次增产。俄罗斯与OPEC+的伙伴关系非常重要，俄罗斯将在7月6日的会议上寻求一个所有 OPEC+成员都能接受的解决方案。参与谈判的八个OPEC+成员国一直在逐步减少减产，他们可能会考 虑在8月份再次增产。 ...

调查显示：参与欧佩克+增产的五个成员国5月份石油产量增加18万桶/日，低于承诺的31万桶/日增幅 ...

金十数据6月4日讯，据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月继续加速石油增产，因为沙特更 加重视夺回失去的市场份额。知情人士称，沙特欧佩克+中占据越来越大的主导地位，希望该组织在8 月和可能的9月至少增加41.1万桶/日的产量。一位知情人士表示，沙特渴望尽快解除减产，以利用北半 球夏季的需求高峰。欧佩克+已经同意在5月、6月和7月将日产量提高41.1万桶，尽管他们最近的会议在 这一战略上出现了一些分歧。俄罗斯领导的一派希望暂停增产，但最终沙特的观点占了上风。 沙特希望欧佩克+进一步"超大幅度"增产 ...

摩根士丹利表示，预计OPEC+在8月、9月、10月这三个月继续恢复石油产量，从而令油价进一步走 低。OPEC+周六宣布同意连续第三个月大幅增加石油产量，对此摩根士丹利表示，这意味着到10月， 此前削减的220万桶/日的产量将被全数解除。 ...

石油输出国组织5月31日发表声明，八个OPEC+国家（沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威 特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼）5月31日举行线上会议，决定在7月份增产41.1万桶/日。这是上 述八个产油国连续第三个月实施同等力度的增产，打破了该组织多年来靠协同减产支撑油价的市场策 略，也将国际油价拖至四年来的低位。声明称，产油国根据不断变化的市场情况，逐步增加的产量可能 会暂停或逆转。（智通财经） ...

欧佩克+声明：八个成员国（沙特、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿 曼）将在七月份增产41.1万桶/日。根据不断变化的市场情况，逐步增加的产量可能会暂停或逆转。他 们还确认，将全额补偿自2024年1月以来的任何过剩产量。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On May 28 (Wednesday), the WTI July crude oil spot contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed up $0.95 per barrel to $61.84 per barrel, a gain of 1.56%. The Brent July crude oil spot contract on the Intercontinental Exchange closed up $0.81 per barrel to $64.9 per barrel, a gain of 1.26% [1]. - OPEC+ will hold another round of negotiations this Saturday, and may reach an agreement to further accelerate oil production increases in July. Representatives said that the 8 gradually increasing OPEC+ member countries participating on Saturday may agree to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, consistent with the increases in May and June [2]. - Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories declined last week, while distillate inventories rose. As of the week ending May 23, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels. Analysts previously predicted that U.S. crude oil inventories would increase by about 100,000 barrels, distillate inventories would increase by about 500,000 barrels, and gasoline inventories would decrease by about 500,000 barrels [3]. - Concerns about the risk of oil supply disruptions in parts of Canada and Libya are temporarily supporting oil prices. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season for oil, there is some upward momentum for oil prices, but the upside is limited. The upward pressure comes from uncertain tariff policies and OPEC+'s determination to increase production. In the long term, as the supply side maintains an upward trend while demand is constrained by the dim economic recovery prospects and the substitution of new energy, oil prices still have room to decline [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Movement - On May 28, WTI July crude oil spot contract rose $0.95/barrel to $61.84/barrel, up 1.56%, and Brent July crude oil spot contract rose $0.81/barrel to $64.9/barrel, up 1.26% [1]. 3.2 OPEC+ Meeting - OPEC+ will negotiate on Saturday and may agree on a 411,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in July for 8 member countries, same as May and June [2]. 3.3 U.S. Inventory - As of May 23, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased 1.3 million barrels, different from analysts' predictions [3]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short - term, oil prices are supported by supply disruptions and have upward momentum in the seasonal peak, but limited by tariff policies and OPEC+ production increase. In the long - term, supply growth and demand constraints may lead to price drops [4].