高盛集团因发达国家 石油库存减少，上调了今年第四季度的油价预期。包括Daan Struyven在内的分析 师在报告中表示，这家华尔街 银行将全球基准布伦特原油第四季度价格预测上调6 美元 / 桶，至60 美 元 / 桶。同期美国西德克萨斯轻质原油 预计为56 美元 / 桶，同样上调 6 美元。分析师称，经合组织定 价中心的石油库存并未出现累积。"我们认为 2026 年是供应浪潮的最后一年，因此我们对 2026 年的油 价预测仍低于远期合约价格，但 2028 年起将高于远期价格。"周一布伦特原油交易价格约为71 美元 / 桶。高盛分析师表示，油价未来也将逐步回落，部分原因是 "若地缘政治紧张局势缓和，我们估算的6 美元风险溢价将逐步消退"。 ...

阿联酋富查伊拉 石油工业区最新数据显示，截至2026年2月16日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库 存为2054.7万桶，较前一周增加84.8万桶，结束了此前连续两周的下滑势头。其中，轻质馏分油库存增 加191.3万桶至988.8万桶，中质馏分油库存减少30.4万桶至302.8万桶，重质残渣燃料油库存减少76.1万 桶至763.1万桶。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran continued. Trump received a briefing on military strike plans against Iran but has not made a final decision on whether to authorize the strike. Israel is highly vigilant about the possibility of US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back at Israel and the US. The Iranian president has shown a willingness to meet with protest groups, indicating a reconciliation tendency. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may rise due to geopolitical risks. Fundamentally, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking was volatile, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil Price Data - From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the price of DUBAI increased by 1.99, OMAN increased by 2.34, and the domestic gasoline price increased by 20.00. The price of Singapore 380CST decreased by 0.86, the main contract of SHFE FU increased by 96, and the main contract of SHFE BU increased by 52. The price of HH natural gas decreased by 0.290, and BFO increased by 2.9 [3]. 3.2 Daily News - An Iranian senior source said that the US's leaking of the cancellation of the negotiation indicates a lack of sincerity. Iran will not accept negotiations on any issues other than the nuclear issue. The US rejected Iran's request to change the negotiation location and form. However, the Iranian foreign minister announced that the nuclear negotiation with the US will resume in Muscat, Oman. The repeated news has caused oil prices to give back half of their previous gains. Multiple Arab and Muslim countries pressured the US government not to cancel the negotiation [3]. 3.3 Inventory - For the week ending February 21, EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma were 128.2 barrels (previous value: 147.2 barrels), EIA crude oil inventories were -233.2 barrels (expected: 260.5 barrels, previous value: 463.3 barrels), EIA gasoline inventories were 36.9 barrels (expected: -84.9 barrels, previous value: -15.1 barrels), EIA refined oil inventories were 390.8 barrels (expected: -148.8 barrels, previous value: -205.1 barrels), EIA refinery utilization rate was 86.5% (expected: 84.8%, previous value: 84.9%), and EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 0 barrels (previous value: 0 barrels) [3].

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/03 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/27 | 62.39 | 67.57 | 61.86 | 1.57 | 0.98 | -5.18 | 1.97 | 186.52 | 10.77 | 264.62 | 43.57 | | 2026/01/28 | 63.21 | 68.40 | 61.88 | 1.57 | 1.03 | -5.19 | 2.68 | 189.23 | 11.08 | 266.61 | 43.58 | | 2026/01/ ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 报告观点 【本周石油库存数据追踪】 ①全球陆上石油库存：截止1月30日，全球陆上石油库存录得35.41亿桶，环比1月23日35.36亿桶上涨 0.2%。依旧处于高位中。 ②全球海上石油在途库存：截止1月30日，全球海上石油在途库存录得13.18亿桶，环比1月23日12.90亿 桶上涨2.2%。在途库存再次转高。 ③全球海上浮舱库存：截止1月30日，全球海上浮舱库存录得1.18亿桶，环比1月23日1.22亿桶下降 3.8%。浮舱数据呈现回落。 图 3 全球海上石油在途库存 千桶 图 4 全球石油总库存(陆上+海上(在途+浮舱))千桶 ④中国陆上石油库存：截止1月30日，中国陆上石油库存录得11.96亿桶，环比1月23日11.88亿桶上涨 0.65%。前期回落但依旧维持较高水平。 ⑤伊朗+委内瑞拉+俄罗斯海上浮舱：截止1月30日，伊朗+委内瑞拉+俄罗斯海上浮舱录得9165万桶，环 比1月23日9412万桶下跌2.62%。其中，委内瑞拉海上浮舱录得2557万桶，环比1月23日的2621万桶下跌 2.42%。伊朗海上浮舱录得5107 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/02 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/26 | 60.63 | 65.59 | 61.58 | 1.97 | 0.82 | -4.96 | 1.93 | 182.01 | 10.85 | 256.80 | 42.27 | | 2026/01/27 | 62.39 | 67.57 | 61.86 | 1.57 | 0.98 | -5.18 | 1.97 | 186.52 | 10.77 | 264.62 | 43.57 | | 2026/01/ ...

原油成品油早报 金十数据1月28日讯，周二，美、布两油期货结算价上涨3%，分别报62.39和67.57美元/盎司。据分析师和交易商估 计，因一场严重冬季风暴横扫全美、令能源基础设施和电网承压，美国石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/ 日，约占全国产量的 15%。经纪公司PVM的石油分析师Tamas Varga称："美国的寒冷天气可能会导致石油库存在未来 几周内大幅下降，尤其是如果这种天气持续下去的话。"船舶跟踪服务公司Vortexa称，在寒冷天气的影响下，美国墨西 哥湾沿岸港口的原油和液化天然气出口量周日降至零。该公司分析主管称，随着港口重新开放，周一出口反弹，流量高 于季节性标准。此外，两位知情消息人士早前表示，哈萨克斯坦最大的腾吉兹油田(Tengiz)可能会在2月7日之前恢复不 到一半的正常产量，该油田正在从火灾和停电事故中缓慢恢复。不过，运营哈萨克斯坦主要出口管道的CPC公司表示， 在其位于俄罗斯黑海沿岸的码头的三个系泊点之一完成维护后，该码头的装载能力已恢复到满负荷状态。 ·美国至1月23日当周API原油库存 -24.7万桶，预期145万桶，前值304.3万桶。 ·美国至1月23日当周API ...

原油成品油早报 一、日度新闻 伊朗情况： 1. 伊朗对美发出警告：若遭军事打击将袭击美航母。 2. 以色列民航局称本周末进入敏感时期。 3. 美国总统特朗普表示，伊朗局势"瞬息万变"，因为他向该地区派遣了一支"庞大的舰队"，但他认为伊朗确实想要达成 协议。 4. 黎巴嫩真主党：不会对针对伊朗的军事行动袖手旁观。 ·特朗普认为伊朗希望达成协议 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/27 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/20 | 60.36 | 64.92 | 61.79 | 2.42 | 0.73 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/23 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/16 | 59.44 | 64.13 | 61.66 | 2.28 | 0.67 | -4.69 | 1.44 | 178.52 | 10.85 | 223.76 | 29.85 | | 2026/01/19 | - | 63.94 | - | 2.28 | 0.72 | - | 1.54 | - | - | - | - | | 2026/01/20 | 60.36 | 64.92 | 61.79 | 2 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/22 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/15 | 59.19 | 63.76 | 61.29 | 1.94 | 0.68 | -4.57 | 1.73 | 178.38 | 11.16 | 220.83 | 28.99 | | 2026/01/16 | 59.44 | 64.13 | 61.66 | 2.28 | 0.67 | -4.69 | 1.44 | 178.52 | 10.85 | 223.76 | 29.85 | | 2026/01/19 | - | 63.94 | - | 2.28 ...