原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/29 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB BRENT 1- dated bre | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | 2025/12/22 | 58.01 | 62.07 | 62.12 | - 0.49 | -4.06 | 0.28 | 174.22 | 11.10 | 215.81 | 28.57 | | 2025/12/23 | 58.38 | 62.38 | 62.11 | - 0.51 | -4.00 | 0.64 | 174.32 | 10.83 | 219.06 | 29.63 | | 2025/12/24 | 58.35 | 62.24 | 6 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/26 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/19 | 56.52 | 60.47 | 61.65 | - | 0.42 | -3.95 | 0.27 | 170.82 | 11.27 | 212.19 | 28.65 | | 2025/12/22 | 58.01 | 62.07 | 62.12 | - | 0.49 | -4.06 | 0.28 | 174.22 | 11.10 | 215.81 | 28.57 | | 2025/12/23 | 5 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/11 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/04 | 59.67 | 63.26 | 63.89 | 0.56 | 0.40 | -3.59 | 0.04 | 182.71 | 13.48 | 230.37 | 33.50 | | 2025/12/05 | 60.08 | 63.75 | 64.26 | 0.41 | 0.36 | -3.67 | 0.05 | 183.41 | 13.28 | 236.29 | 35.49 | | 2025/12/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses skepticism surrounding the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast of a looming oil glut, highlighting discrepancies between projected inventory builds and actual data observed in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Inventory Discrepancies - The IEA projects an inventory build of 800 million barrels in 2023 and 1,200 million barrels in 2024, yet actual inventory data does not reflect this increase [1][3]. - Observed inventory builds in the first half of the year were only 0.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), significantly lower than the expected 1.5 mb/d [5][10]. - The IEA's forecasts may be biased due to human error, leading to potential underestimations of demand outside member countries [4][10]. Group 2: Chinese Inventory Dynamics - Chinese inventories reportedly grew by 110 million barrels from April to August 2023, indicating a significant increase in strategic oil stockpiling [7][13]. - The behavior of government inventory holders, such as China, differs from commercial holders, as they tend to buy and hold oil as a hedge against supply disruptions [12][14]. - The motivations behind China's strategic stockpiling include increasing imports, potential sanctions on Russian oil, and fears of political disputes leading to embargoes [13][15]. Group 3: Future Market Implications - The market surplus is projected to exceed 2 mb/d for 2026, suggesting significant pressure on oil prices in the coming months [10][15]. - If China's strategic purchases cease, it could lead to a rapid shift in market balance, potentially resulting in an inventory surge [14][15]. - A strong global economy and tighter sanctions against oil-producing countries could lead to a market balance that is much tighter than the IEA's projections [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices strengthened again, with Brent crude closing above $68 per barrel. The month - spreads of Brent and WTI crude rebounded, while the Dubai month - spread declined. There is a divergence between crude oil fundamentals and geopolitical sanction risk factors. The global oil inventory decreased slightly, with an absolute level similar to that in 2019 and at a high in the past five years. In the benchmark scenario, there will be a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth - quarter crude oil balance and an expected surplus of 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Recently, the market has been trading around sanctions and risk - premium concerns, and short - covering has affected the market performance. Attention should be paid to risks before the National Day holiday [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - OPEC+ may approve an oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at the October meeting as rising oil prices encourage the group to regain market share. OPEC+ has changed its production - cut strategy since April and has increased the quota by over 2.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 2.4% of global oil demand. An online meeting of eight member countries will be held on October 5 to decide the production arrangement for November [3] - The substitution ratio of LNG and new energy for diesel consumption exceeds 20%. The sales of LNG and new - energy heavy - duty trucks increased year - on - year, with a substitution volume of 3.86 million tons and a substitution ratio of 20.2%. In August, the terminal consumption of diesel was weak due to high - temperature and rainy weather, and the substitution effect of new - energy and LNG heavy - duty trucks on diesel consumption in logistics has been steadily increasing [4] - An Iraqi oil ministry official said that the resumption of the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline will increase crude oil exports to nearly 3.6 million barrels per day in the coming days, and Iraq's production and export levels will remain within the OPEC - set quota of 4.2 million barrels per day [4] - The total number of U.S. oil rigs in the week ending September 26 was 424, up from 418 in the previous week [4] - The arbitrage window for U.S. crude oil to Asia may close due to soaring tanker freight rates and lower - priced Middle - East crude oil, which is closer to major global demand regions [5] 2. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending September 19, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 793,000 barrels per day to 4.484 million barrels per day, while domestic production increased by 19,000 barrels to 13.501 million barrels per day [6] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 607,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 0.15%. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.466 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.94% [6] - The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 230,000 barrels to 406 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. The U.S. commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.495 million barrels per day, an increase of 803,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [6] - From September 12 to September 18, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventory both increased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated and strengthened, while that of local refineries decreased month - on - month [6] 3. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, oil prices strengthened again, with Brent and WTI crude month - spreads rebounding and Dubai month - spread declining. There is a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitical sanction risks. The global oil inventory decreased slightly, and OPEC's net crude oil exports rebounded significantly. The U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, along with gasoline and diesel inventories. Global refinery profits rebounded again. In the benchmark scenario, there will be a surplus in the crude oil balance in the fourth quarter of 2025 and in 2026 [7]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The single - week data is bullish due to the decline in full - caliber inventory and the strengthening of apparent oil product demand, although the total inventory pressure of crude oil and petroleum products remains at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Crude Oil Inventory - In the week ending September 19, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels, and the decline in crude oil inventory narrowed as net imports rebounded significantly compared with the previous data [3][5]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 177,000 barrels [5]. - US strategic petroleum inventory decreased from 450.4 million barrels to 423 million barrels [5]. Production and Refining - US single - week crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels per day to 1,350.1 million barrels per day [3][5]. - The US refinery utilization rate dropped from 93.3% to 93%, still at a relatively high level in the same period [3][5]. - US refinery crude oil processing volume increased from 1,642.4 million barrels per day to 1,647.6 million barrels per day [5]. Product Inventory and Demand - US gasoline and diesel inventories both decreased slightly. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.081 million barrels, and diesel inventory decreased by 1.685 million barrels [3][5]. - US aviation kerosene inventory increased by 1.052 million barrels, and fuel oil inventory increased by 317,000 barrels [5]. - US total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) decreased by 474,000 barrels [5]. - US apparent demand for refined oil products increased from 2,063.7 million barrels per day to 2,079.3 million barrels per day. Apparent demand for gasoline increased from 881 million barrels per day to 895.9 million barrels per day, and apparent demand for diesel increased from 362.1 million barrels per day to 373.8 million barrels per day [5]. Import and Export - US crude oil imports increased from 569.2 million barrels per day to 649.5 million barrels per day, and exports decreased from 527.7 million barrels per day to 448.4 million barrels per day [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels, with fundamental factors and geopolitical sanctions risks diverging. The U.S. President Trump called on European countries to "stop buying" Russian oil, and Iran suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The EU's sanctions on Russia targeted shadow fleets, Russian banks, and Russian oil buyers. Russia's refined oil exports declined significantly due to drone attacks, while its crude oil net exports remained high. Iran's crude oil exports did not decline. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly, with the absolute level similar to that in 2019, the highest in the past five years. In September's preliminary data, OPEC's crude oil net exports rebounded significantly. U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, gasoline inventories decreased, and diesel inventories increased significantly. Global refinery profits were divided, with U.S. refinery profits rebounding, domestic refinery operations rising overall, and European and American refinery operations declining. Under the baseline scenario, there will be a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the crude oil market in the fourth quarter, and an expected surplus of 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous levels, the fundamentals will turn to the off - season, and the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From September 17 - 23, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated from $62.28 - $64.05, with a change of $1.13; BRENT prices fluctuated from $66.57 - $67.95, with a change of $1.06; DUBAI prices fluctuated from $69.74 - $70.50, with a change of $0.07. Other related product prices such as domestic gasoline, diesel, and various oil - related spreads also showed corresponding changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Iraq and oil companies are preparing to sign an agreement to restart exports from the Kurdish region. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a defense agreement, which is unlikely to change Saudi Arabia's energy relations with India. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production in July decreased by 551,000 barrels per day to 9.201 million barrels per day. Iran's Foreign Minister set off for New York to participate in the United Nations General Assembly, and Iran will hold foreign - minister - level talks with Germany, France, and the UK [3][4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of September 12, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 2.19%; the four - week average supply of U.S. refined oil products was 20.671 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.69%; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.12%; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.692 million barrels per day, a decrease of 579,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. From September 12 - 18, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased, domestic gasoline and diesel production increased, inventories increased, the comprehensive profit of major refineries strengthened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic retail prices for refined oil have remained unchanged for the sixth time this year, with the current pricing cycle expected to last until after the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, indicating stable fuel costs for residents and logistics in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - In 2023, domestic refined oil retail prices have undergone 19 adjustment cycles, including 6 increases, 6 instances of price stability, and 7 decreases. The prices for gasoline and diesel have decreased by 405 yuan/ton and 390 yuan/ton, respectively, compared to the end of last year [1]. - The next price adjustment window is set for October 13, 2023, with significant uncertainty due to the adjustment period overlapping with the holidays [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts note that the international oil price experienced fluctuations, initially rising and then falling, with limited support from market news. The market is currently characterized by flexible transaction activities and limited price volatility among major suppliers [2]. - Future oil price trends are expected to be influenced by oil inventory data, with a potential downward pressure from inventory accumulation. However, factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical disturbances in Europe may provide some support for oil prices [2]. - The anticipated resumption of oil exports from Iraq's Kurdish region raises concerns about oversupply, compounded by a bleak global economic outlook and demand prospects, making it unlikely for international oil prices to exhibit a strong upward trend in the short term [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: The trend is bearish in the medium term, with a short - term potential for supply fluctuations due to geopolitical factors, but the upside space is limited. The strategy of combining high - level short positions and call options can be continued [2]. - Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil: FU and LU are expected to follow the crude oil trend, with short - term rebound risks and medium - term downward pressure. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil when the spread is low [3]. - Asphalt: The overall inventory level has decreased, and the futures price has bottom - support [4]. - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): The overseas market is strong, and the short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. Pay attention to the peak - season stocking market, and the near - month contract on the futures market is relatively strong [5]. Core Viewpoints - With the end of the gasoline consumption peak season, global refined oil inventory accumulation has accelerated. Considering the return of OPEC+ supply and the end of the summer peak season for oil demand, the market is expected to face greater loosening pressure in the fourth quarter, with the most oversupplied period in the first quarter of next year. The oversupply may reach 1.64 million barrels per day this year and 2.67 million barrels per day next year [2]. - Since Russian refineries have been frequently attacked, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The increase in bunker fuel consumption in the Singapore market is concentrated in high - sulfur bunker fuel. The low - sulfur supply pressure has eased marginally, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is difficult to compress further [3]. - The latest data shows that asphalt plant inventory has decreased slightly, and social inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons weekly. The increase and subsequent decrease of warehouse receipts in East China are conducive to alleviating the downward pressure on spot prices in East China [4]. - The overseas LPG market remains strong. Affected by typhoons in South China, imported goods have decreased, and high - level refinery operating rates can be maintained due to good chemical profit margins [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since the end of the gasoline consumption peak season, global refined oil inventory has increased by 4.7% and crude oil inventory has decreased by 0.9% since the second half of the year, with an overall increase of 1.2% in total oil inventory, continuing the inventory - building speed in the second quarter [2]. - Considering the supply return of OPEC+ and the end of the oil demand peak season, the market's loosening pressure will increase marginally in the fourth quarter, and the most oversupplied period will be in the first quarter of next year, with oversupply of 1.64 million barrels per day this year and 2.67 million barrels per day next year [2]. - The medium - term bearish trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged. Although short - term geopolitical factors may cause temporary supply fluctuations, the upside space for price rebounds is limited [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Since Russian refineries have been frequently attacked, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The increase in domestic local refinery operating rates is beneficial to fuel oil feedstock demand [3]. - The increase in bunker fuel consumption in the Singapore market is concentrated in high - sulfur bunker fuel, with an 11.6% year - on - year increase in high - sulfur bunker fuel loading volume in August and a 6% year - on - year increase in cumulative loading volume [3]. - FU and LU are expected to follow the crude oil trend, with short - term rebound risks and medium - term downward pressure. The low - sulfur supply pressure has eased marginally, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is difficult to compress further [3]. Asphalt - The latest data shows that asphalt plant inventory has decreased slightly, and social inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons weekly, with the overall inventory level decreasing month - on - month [4]. - Warehouse receipts in East China increased by 4,000 tons last Friday and decreased by 2,700 tons in the first two trading days of this week, which is conducive to alleviating the downward pressure on spot prices in East China [4]. - The asphalt futures price has bottom - support [4]. LPG - The overseas LPG market remains strong, and the overall sentiment is positive due to strong import demand and rising geopolitical risks [5]. - Affected by typhoons in South China, imported LPG has decreased. Good chemical profit margins allow high - level refinery operating rates to be maintained [5]. - The short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. Pay attention to the peak - season stocking market, and the near - month contract on the futures market is relatively strong [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the week ending August 29, 2025, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.415 million barrels, with net crude oil imports rising by 434,000 barrels per day and the estimated single - week crude oil production decreasing by 16,000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate dropped from 94.6% to 94.3%, indicating a continued weakening of refinery - level demand. Among petroleum products, diesel inventories resumed an upward trend while gasoline inventories declined significantly. The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products accumulated, and the apparent demand for refined oil decreased. Although single - week data has limited implications, there are still concerns about future crude oil inventories after the decline in refinery utilization [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Inventory Data - U.S. commercial crude oil inventory change: increased by 2.415 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 2.392 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. Cushing crude oil inventory change: increased by 1.59 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 0.838 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 0.509 million barrels, compared with an increase of 0.776 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. gasoline inventory change: decreased by 3.795 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.236 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. diesel inventory change: increased by 1.681 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.786 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. jet fuel inventory change: decreased by 0.796 million barrels, compared with an increase of 0.293 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. fuel oil inventory change: decreased by 0.215 million barrels, compared with an increase of 0.316 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): increased by 7.102 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 4.394 million barrels in the previous period [5]. Production and Consumption Data - U.S. crude oil production: 13.423 million barrels per day, compared with 13.439 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. refined oil apparent demand: 20.652 million barrels per day, compared with 21.614 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. gasoline apparent demand: 9.117 million barrels per day, compared with 9.24 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. diesel apparent demand: 3.768 million barrels per day, compared with 4.141 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. Trade and Refinery Data - U.S. crude oil imports: 6.742 million barrels per day, compared with 6.234 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. crude oil exports: 3.884 million barrels per day, compared with 3.81 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume: 16.869 million barrels per day, compared with 16.88 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. refinery utilization rate: 94.3%, compared with 94.6% in the previous period [5].