Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecast for Q4 2023 due to declining oil inventories in developed countries, increasing the Brent crude oil price prediction by $6 per barrel to $60 per barrel [1] - The forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has also been increased by $6 to $56 per barrel for the same period [1] - Analysts noted that there has been no accumulation of oil inventories at the OECD pricing center, indicating a tighter supply situation [1] Group 2 - The company believes that 2026 will be the last year of a supply wave, maintaining a lower oil price forecast for that year compared to forward contract prices, but expects prices to exceed forward prices starting in 2028 [1] - Current trading prices for Brent crude oil are around $71 per barrel, suggesting a potential for future price adjustments [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that oil prices will gradually decline in the future, partly due to the expected easing of geopolitical tensions, which will reduce the estimated $6 risk premium [1]

Core Insights - The total refined oil inventory at Fujairah Port in the UAE reached 20.547 million barrels as of February 16, 2026, marking an increase of 848,000 barrels from the previous week, ending a two-week decline [1] Group 1: Inventory Changes - Light distillates inventory increased by 1.913 million barrels to 9.888 million barrels [1] - Medium distillates inventory decreased by 304,000 barrels to 3.028 million barrels [1] - Heavy residual fuel oil inventory decreased by 761,000 barrels to 7.631 million barrels [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran continued. Trump received a briefing on military strike plans against Iran but has not made a final decision on whether to authorize the strike. Israel is highly vigilant about the possibility of US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back at Israel and the US. The Iranian president has shown a willingness to meet with protest groups, indicating a reconciliation tendency. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may rise due to geopolitical risks. Fundamentally, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking was volatile, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil Price Data - From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the price of DUBAI increased by 1.99, OMAN increased by 2.34, and the domestic gasoline price increased by 20.00. The price of Singapore 380CST decreased by 0.86, the main contract of SHFE FU increased by 96, and the main contract of SHFE BU increased by 52. The price of HH natural gas decreased by 0.290, and BFO increased by 2.9 [3]. 3.2 Daily News - An Iranian senior source said that the US's leaking of the cancellation of the negotiation indicates a lack of sincerity. Iran will not accept negotiations on any issues other than the nuclear issue. The US rejected Iran's request to change the negotiation location and form. However, the Iranian foreign minister announced that the nuclear negotiation with the US will resume in Muscat, Oman. The repeated news has caused oil prices to give back half of their previous gains. Multiple Arab and Muslim countries pressured the US government not to cancel the negotiation [3]. 3.3 Inventory - For the week ending February 21, EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma were 128.2 barrels (previous value: 147.2 barrels), EIA crude oil inventories were -233.2 barrels (expected: 260.5 barrels, previous value: 463.3 barrels), EIA gasoline inventories were 36.9 barrels (expected: -84.9 barrels, previous value: -15.1 barrels), EIA refined oil inventories were 390.8 barrels (expected: -148.8 barrels, previous value: -205.1 barrels), EIA refinery utilization rate was 86.5% (expected: 84.8%, previous value: 84.9%), and EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 0 barrels (previous value: 0 barrels) [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran continued. Trump received a briefing on military strike plans against Iran but has not made a final decision on whether to authorize the strike. Israel is highly vigilant about the possibility of US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back at Israel and the US. The Iranian president has shown a willingness to meet with protest groups, indicating a tendency towards reconciliation. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may rise due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread weakened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From January 27 to February 2, WTI decreased by $3.07, BRENT decreased by $3.02, and DUBAI increased by $3.05. Other indicators such as spreads and crack spreads also showed corresponding changes [3] 2. Daily News - US and Iranian senior officials are expected to meet in Istanbul on Friday to ease tensions. Iran is willing to close or suspend its nuclear program and is more inclined to adopt the proposal of establishing a regional nuclear power production consortium put forward last year. Iran's National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani met with Russian President Putin in Moscow and conveyed a message from Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, indicating that Iran could agree to transport its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia, similar to the practice under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [3] - Israel will put forward three "no" requirements for Iran in its talks with US President's Special Envoy Witkoff, namely, Iran must agree not to develop a nuclear program, not to develop a ballistic missile program, and not to support armed "agents" including so - called "terrorist organizations" that threaten Israel. Israel still believes that "military strikes to overthrow the Iranian regime are 'possible'" [3] - US President Trump said that he had a conversation with Indian Prime Minister Modi. The US and India agreed to establish a trade agreement. The US will reduce its tariffs on India from 25% to 18%, and India will gradually cancel tariffs and non - tariff barriers on the US. Modi also promised to "buy US products" and purchase more than $500 billion worth of US energy, technology, agricultural products, coal and other products [3] 3. Inventory - In the week of January 23, US crude oil exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day to 4.589 million barrels per day [3] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 36,000 barrels to 13.696 million barrels per day [3] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.295 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.54% [3] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared with the same period last year [3] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 515,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, an increase of 0.12% [3] - US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.642 million barrels per day, a decrease of 805,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [3]

Key Insights - Global land oil inventory increased slightly to 3.541 billion barrels as of January 30, up 0.2% from January 23 [3][39] - Global offshore oil in-transit inventory rose to 1.318 billion barrels, marking a 2.2% increase from January 23 [3][39] - Global offshore floating storage inventory decreased to 118 million barrels, down 3.8% from January 23 [3][39] - China's land oil inventory reached 1.196 billion barrels, up 0.65% from January 23, maintaining a high level [3][39] - Floating storage for Iran, Venezuela, and Russia combined fell to 91.65 million barrels, a decrease of 2.62% from January 23 [3][39] Land Inventory - Global land oil inventory continues to show a slight increase, with high levels observed in China and India [4][40] Offshore Inventory - Global offshore in-transit inventory has turned upward, while floating storage has seen a decline [5][40] - The decrease in Venezuelan floating storage is attributed to U.S. assistance in sales, leading to some inventory being consumed [5][40] - Iranian floating storage data has also declined, with some floating storage shifting to in-transit inventory [5][40] Market Conditions - The overall market continues to face significant oversupply pressure, which poses a substantial challenge to oil prices [6][41]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices rebounded due to escalating geopolitical risks. The unstable situation in Iran persisted over the weekend. Although Trump received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran, no final decision has been made. Israel is on high alert for the possible US intervention in Iran. Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back at Israel and the US. The Iranian president showed a willingness to reconcile by meeting with the protest groups. If the US launches a military strike against Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week. The Dubai month spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking margins strengthened while diesel cracking margins fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in Q1 is expected to be high and volatile. [6] 3. Summary of Relevant Sections Daily News - Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, stated that if the US initiates a war, it will be a regional conflict, not limited to one area. [3] - There was an explosion at Iran's southern Abbas Port, and Iranian media denied reports that a Revolutionary Guard commander was the target. [3] - US President Trump expressed hope that Iran would negotiate an acceptable agreement and said that Iran is having "serious" talks with the US. [4] - The US and Iran have signaled their willingness to negotiate, but experts believe there are significant differences on key issues, making the negotiation prospects difficult. The current tense situation may continue for some time. [4] - OPEC+ confirmed a production increase suspension in March and will hold the next meeting on March 1st. The previous daily production cut of 1.65 million barrels may be partially or fully restored based on market conditions. [4] Inventory - In the week of January 23rd, US crude oil exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day to 4.589 million barrels per day. [5] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 36,000 barrels to 13.696 million barrels per day. [17] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.295 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.54%. [17] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared to the same period last year. [17] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 515,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, an increase of 0.12%. [17] - US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.642 million barrels per day, a decrease of 805,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [17] Weekly View - Crude oil prices rebounded this week due to geopolitical risks. If the US attacks Iran, oil prices may rise. Fundamentally, inventories increased, Dubai month spreads strengthened slightly after a low opening, gasoline cracking margins strengthened while diesel cracking margins fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. The price center in Q1 is expected to be high and volatile. [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran continued. Trump received a briefing on military strike plans against Iran but has not made a final decision on whether to authorize the strike. Israel is on high alert for the possibility of US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back at Israel and the US. The Iranian president has shown a willingness to meet with protest groups, indicating a conciliatory tendency. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may rise due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread weakened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - On Tuesday, the settlement prices of US and Brent crude oil futures rose by 3%, reaching $62.39 and $67.57 per ounce respectively. Due to a severe winter storm in the US, oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day of production over the weekend, about 15% of the national output. The cold weather may lead to a significant decline in oil inventories in the coming weeks. The crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports from US Gulf Coast ports dropped to zero on Sunday but rebounded on Monday. In Kazakhstan, the Tengiz oil field may not recover to half of its normal production by February 7, but the loading capacity of the CPC terminal has returned to full capacity [3] - The API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 23 was -247,000 barrels, compared with an expected 1.45 million barrels and a previous value of 3.043 million barrels. The API gasoline inventory was -415,000 barrels, compared with an expected 126,000 barrels and a previous value of 6.209 million barrels. The API refined oil inventory was 2.013 million barrels, compared with an expected -1.55 million barrels and a previous value of -33,000 barrels [3] - On January 27, the Iranian president and the Saudi crown prince had a phone call to discuss the regional situation. The Iranian president believed that the US and Israel were involved in the recent unrest in Iran, and the US's threats and psychological warfare would only bring instability to itself. He also expressed Iran's willingness to achieve peace and stability within the framework of international law. The Saudi crown prince stated that Saudi Arabia would not accept any threats and tensions against Iran and was ready to cooperate with Iran and other regional countries to establish lasting peace and security [3] - US President Trump said on January 27 that another fleet was heading towards Iran, hoping that Iran would reach an agreement with the US [3] Inventory - According to the EIA report, in the week ending January 16, US crude oil exports decreased by 618,000 barrels per day to 3.688 million barrels per day [3] - In the week ending January 16, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 21,000 barrels to 13.732 million barrels per day [3] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.602 million barrels to 426 million barrels, an increase of 0.85% [3] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.946 million barrels per day, a 1.5% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - In the week ending January 16, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 806,000 barrels to 414.5 million barrels, an increase of 0.19% [3] - In the week ending January 16, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.447 million barrels per day, a decrease of 645,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [3] Weekly Viewpoints - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may rise due to geopolitical risks. Fundamentally, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread weakened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. The unstable situation in Iran persisted over the weekend. Trump received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran but has not made a final decision on whether to authorize the strike. Israel is on high alert for the possibility of US intervention in Iran. Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike Israel and the US. The Iranian president has shown a willingness to meet with protest groups, indicating a tendency towards reconciliation. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may rise due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week. The Dubai monthly spread opened low and then strengthened slightly. Gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated. European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From January 20 - 26, 2026, BRENT decreased by $0.15, DUBAI decreased by $0.10, SC increased by 15.40, OMAN decreased by $0.34, domestic gasoline increased by 20.00, domestic diesel increased by 28.00, Singapore 380CST spread increased by 2.25, and HH natural gas increased by 22.300 [3][17] 2. Daily News - Iran warned the US that it will attack US aircraft carriers if subjected to a military strike. Israel's Civil Aviation Authority said this weekend is a sensitive period. Trump believes the Iranian situation is "rapidly changing" and that Iran wants to reach an agreement. Lebanon's Hezbollah will not stand by in the face of military action against Iran. An Iranian official said that if the US launches an aggression, Iran's response will not be limited to US military bases. The EU officially approved a plan to completely stop importing Russian gas by the end of 2027 [3][4] 3. Inventory - In the week of January 16, US crude oil exports decreased by 618,000 barrels per day to 3.688 million barrels per day. US domestic crude oil production decreased by 21,000 barrels to 13.732 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.602 million barrels to 426 million barrels, a 0.85% increase. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.946 million barrels per day, a 1.5% increase compared to the same period last year. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 806,000 barrels to 414.5 million barrels, a 0.19% increase. US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.447 million barrels per day, a decrease of 645,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to geopolitical events. Although Trump's stance has become more rational, the risk of military intervention cannot be completely ruled out. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories are accumulating in the off - season, while total waterborne inventories are decreasing month - on - month but higher year - on - year. The North Sea market has tightened recently, and the Dubai market is loose. WTI and Brent markets are decoupled. European refinery profits are under downward pressure due to rising crude oil prices, and the absolute price center in the first quarter remains high. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Day - to - Day News - On January 22, Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf said that all cities in Iran had returned to peace after recent riots, which he considered a continuation of the "12 - day war" last June, supported by Israel and the US. Turkish Parliament Speaker Kurtulmuş hoped Iran would maintain peace and stability. [3] - US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said at Davos that global oil production needs to more than double, and he criticized the EU and California for wasting funds on inefficient green energy projects. [4] - India's Reliance Industries will obtain Russian oil again in February and March after a one - month suspension. [19] - The US Energy Secretary told oil industry executives at the Davos meeting that Venezuela's oil production is expected to increase by 30% from the current 900,000 barrels per day in the medium - to - short - term. [19] b. Inventory - According to the EIA report, in the week of January 16, US crude oil exports decreased by 618,000 barrels per day to 3.688 million barrels per day. [5] - In the week of January 16, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 21,000 barrels to 13.732 million barrels per day. [19] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.602 million barrels to 426 million barrels, a 0.85% increase. [19] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.946 million barrels per day, a 1.5% increase compared to the same period last year. [19] - In the week of January 16, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 806,000 barrels to 414.5 million barrels, a 0.19% increase. [19] - In the week of January 16, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.447 million barrels per day, a decrease of 645,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to geopolitical events. Currently, Trump's stance is becoming more rational, but the risk of military intervention cannot be completely ruled out. From a fundamental perspective, global on - land oil inventories are accumulating in the off - season, and the total waterborne inventory is decreasing month - on - month but is higher year - on - year. The North Sea market in the spot market has tightened recently, while the Dubai market is loose, and the WTI and Brent markets are decoupling. In terms of refinery profits, European natural gas prices have skyrocketed, the European diesel crack spread has strengthened, and the overall profits of European and American refineries are under downward pressure due to the rising crude oil prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the absolute price center in the first quarter will remain high and volatile [5][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily News - Israeli media reported that Israel has raised its alert level due to concerns that the US may attack Iran in the near future [3]. - Trump said he hopes the US will not take further military action against Iran, but sanctions and tariff measures related to Iran will continue. He also mentioned the 2025 US air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and the purchase of 25 B - 2 stealth bombers [3]. - Sources said that India's Reliance Industries plans to purchase Russian oil that complies with sanctions in February and March [3]. Inventory - In the week ending January 9, US crude oil exports increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day [4]. - In the week ending January 9, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day [5]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.81% increase [5]. - The four - week average supply of US refined oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease compared to the same period last year [5]. - In the week ending January 9, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 413.7 million barrels, a 0.05% increase [5]. - In the week ending January 9, US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 753,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [5]. - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending January 9 was 8.977 million barrels, with an expected value of 3.565 million barrels and a previous value of 7.702 million barrels [5]. - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending January 9 was - 29,000 barrels, with an expected value of 512,000 barrels and a previous value of 5.594 million barrels [5].