Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The IEA has cumulatively revised down the crude oil demand increment by 350,000 barrels per day since the beginning of the year, with the latest monthly report projecting demand increments of 700,000 barrels per day for both 2025 and 2026 due to weak performance across major economies and low consumer confidence, particularly in emerging markets [1][11] - On the supply side, the IEA has raised the 2025 crude oil supply increment by 370,000 barrels per day and 620,000 barrels per day for 2026, driven by OPEC's accelerated easing of voluntary production cuts and growth in non-OPEC production, particularly from the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana [2][21] - Refining margins improved in July, reaching the highest level in the Atlantic Basin since Q1 2024, primarily due to an increase in diesel crack spreads, while gasoline crack spreads narrowed and Asian naphtha and fuel oil crack spreads fell to six-month lows [3][35] - Oil inventories have increased for five consecutive months, with a month-on-month increase of 900,000 barrels per day in June, reaching 7,836 million barrels, the highest level in 46 months, although still below the five-year average [4][39] Summary by Sections Demand Side - The IEA has revised down the crude oil demand increment by 350,000 barrels per day year-to-date, with a forecast of 700,000 barrels per day for both 2025 and 2026 due to general economic performance and low consumer confidence in emerging markets [1][11] - OECD countries, particularly Europe, have shown better-than-expected demand due to monetary easing and fiscal support, while non-OECD countries, especially China and Brazil, have seen a slowdown in demand growth [15][17] - In Q2 2025, demand from OECD Asia is expected to decline by 150,000 barrels per day, with Japan and South Korea experiencing significant drops [16] Supply Side - The IEA has adjusted the 2025 crude oil supply increment upwards by 370,000 barrels per day, with a further increase of 620,000 barrels per day for 2026, attributed to OPEC's easing of production cuts and growth in non-OPEC production [2][21] - OPEC+ production decreased by 250,000 barrels per day in July, with Saudi Arabia's production declining significantly, while UAE and Iran have increased their output [26][29] - Non-OPEC countries, particularly Brazil and Guyana, are expected to contribute significantly to supply growth, with Brazil's production reaching historical highs [32][34] Refining - Refining margins in July reached their highest level since Q1 2024, driven by rising diesel crack spreads, while gasoline crack spreads have narrowed [3][35] Inventory - Oil inventories have risen for five consecutive months, with a notable increase in June, primarily driven by inventory builds in China and the U.S. [4][39]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/11 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | dated bre | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/08/04 | 66.29 | 68.76 | 70.64 | - | 0.75 | -2.47 | 1.10 | 210.22 | 19.53 | 231.76 | 28.58 | | 2025/08/05 | 65.16 | 67.64 | 69.56 | 0.55 | 0.67 | -2.48 | 0.96 | 209.15 | 20.20 | 225.02 | 26.87 | | 2025/08/06 ...

欧佩克月报：5月经合组织石油库存增长3450万桶，至27.7亿桶。 ...

| //// > 国投期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月15日 | | 原油 | な女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 二季度全球石油库存累增2.7%,较一季度的2%边际加快,三季度第一周在原油去库、成品油累库中总体库存下 降0.3%;从乎衡表预期来看,三季度旺季石油库存至少累积速度将放缓。5月以来油价自底部回升持续受到旺季 采购预期支撑，但近期原油现货升贴水及主产品裂解价差均未进一步走强,或显示强现实因素对油价的上行驱 动城弱。综合考虑俄乌地缘风险短期未超预期，以及美国对欧盟、加拿大、墨西哥及巴西的对等关税上调风 险,我们将本周 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spreads also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. The end of Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" on July 4th ended support for solar and wind energy, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, and eight member countries had already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July. Trump indicated that an agreement in the Gaza Strip might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on Iraqi - related enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories remained flat this week, US commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, Cushing's inventories decreased, gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs dropped rapidly as of July 4th, and the US fundamentals remained tight. Global refinery profits rebounded this week, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. Crude oil monthly spreads are expected to remain in high - level oscillations. The WTI and Brent markets are stronger than the Dubai market, and absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - Analysts believe that oil prices face multiple bearish factors such as tariffs, inventory, and production increases. OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said that bearish drivers for oil prices include uncertainties around US tariffs and potential production increases from OPEC+. Despite strong travel demand during the July 4th holiday weekend in the US, API data showed an increase of about 7.1 million barrels in US crude oil inventories, although refined product inventories decreased. Dutch bank ING analysts said that the overnight API data was bearish for oil prices but that changes in refined products were more constructive [3]. - DBS Bank expects that OPEC's actual supply will not increase significantly. DBS Bank's energy department team leader Suvro Sarkar said that oil prices have shown remarkable resilience in the face of the accelerating increase in OPEC+ supply, attributing this support to seasonal demand peaks and the expectation that some OPEC+ members will make up for earlier over - production, so actual supply is not expected to increase significantly [3]. - Kazakhstan plans to maintain the current oil production level until the end of this year [3]. - Kuwait's oil giant believes that OPEC+'s production increase signals a tightening market. Kuwait Petroleum Group CEO Sabah said that OPEC+'s recent large - scale production increase and communication with customers indicate that the growth momentum of global crude oil demand will continue after the summer driving season. He also mentioned that the company maintained close communication with Gulf partners during the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran last month to ensure stable oil supply [3]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending July 4th, US crude oil exports increased by 452,000 barrels per day to 2.757 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels to 13.385 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426 million barrels (a 1.69% increase), the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.564 million barrels per day, a 1.61% decrease from the same period last year, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 906,000 barrels per day to 6.013 million barrels per day [4]. - The EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending July 4th was - 2.658 million barrels (expected - 1.486 million barrels, previous value 4.188 million barrels), and the EIA refined oil inventory was - 825,000 barrels (expected - 314,000 barrels, previous value - 1.71 million barrels) [4]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. China's gasoline and diesel production both increased, with production from major refineries rising and that from independent refineries falling. The sales - to - production ratios of local refineries for gasoline and diesel both increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries improved month - on - month [4]. 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices and monthly spreads oscillated within a narrow range. WTI spot was tight. Trump's policy change on July 4th was favorable for traditional energy. OPEC+ agreed to increase production in August, and Trump had some diplomatic and negotiation plans. The US imposed sanctions on Iraqi - related enterprises. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories were flat, US commercial crude oil inventories accumulated, Cushing's inventories decreased, gasoline inventories increased, diesel inventories decreased, and the number of US oil rigs decreased rapidly. Global refinery profits rebounded, and it was the peak season for refinery operations. Crude oil monthly spreads are expected to remain in high - level oscillations, with the WTI and Brent markets stronger than the Dubai market, and absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's production increase and Trump's policies [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Oil prices dropped significantly this week as the geopolitical risk premium related to Middle East tensions faded. The market is now focused on OPEC+ production policies and Trump's decision on reciprocal tariffs, with the US set to talk to Iran next week. [5] - In terms of fundamentals, global oil products were de - stocked in late June, with the de - stocking rate slightly exceeding expectations. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.836 million barrels per day in the week of June 20th, reaching the lowest level in the same period of history. [5] - WTI fundamentals are positive as US gasoline and diesel are de - stocked, apparent demand rebounds, and refinery profits fluctuate. Domestic refinery profits rebound, and the main refinery operating rate increases. [5] - However, OPEC+ plans to significantly increase production by 414,000 barrels per day in August, and the non - OPEC production is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter. The upside space for absolute prices is limited, but a positive spread strategy is recommended for the price difference between months. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The EU is willing to accept a trade agreement with the US, which includes a 10% general tariff on many EU exports, but hopes for lower tariffs on key industries from the US. [3] - Kazakhstan's oil production may be 2% higher than expected this year, reaching 2 million barrels per day due to increased production from large oil fields. [4] - Morgan Stanley still expects a daily surplus of 1.3 million barrels in the market in 2026. Non - OPEC oil supply will grow strongly from 2025 to 2026, about 1 million barrels per day, and Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to around $60 per barrel early next year. [4] 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 20th, US crude oil exports decreased by 91,000 barrels per day to 4.27 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil production increased by 400 barrels to 13.435 million barrels per day. [4] - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 5.836 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 1.39%. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 237,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. [4] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.049 million barrels per day, a 1.6% decrease compared to the same period last year. Commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.944 million barrels per day, an increase of 440,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [4] - In China, the operating rate of major refineries increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel both increased, with sales - to - production ratios rising. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. Major refinery comprehensive profits rebounded, and local refinery comprehensive profits improved. [5] 3.3 Weekly View - With the geopolitical risk premium related to Middle East tensions fading, oil prices dropped significantly this week. The market is now focused on OPEC+ production policies and Trump's decision on reciprocal tariffs, and the US will talk to Iran next week. [5] - In late June, global oil products were de - stocked, with the de - stocking rate slightly exceeding expectations. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.836 million barrels per day in the week of June 20th, reaching the lowest level in the same period of history, mainly due to high - level refinery operations and a rapid decrease in Canadian crude oil imports. [5] - The number of oil drilling rigs decreased by 6 to 432. US gasoline and diesel were de - stocked, apparent demand rebounded, refinery profits fluctuated, and WTI fundamentals improved. Domestic refinery profits rebounded, the main refinery operating rate increased, and the Dubai monthly spread strengthened recently. [5] - On the negative side, OPEC+ plans to significantly increase production by 414,000 barrels per day in August, and the next meeting will be held on July 6th. Overall, the fundamentals are still in the summer peak season, with a large supply - demand contradiction in the US market. Although Russian refined oil exports have declined recently, the expectation of rapid OPEC+ production increase in August is strengthening, and non - OPEC production is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter. The upside space for absolute prices is limited, and a positive spread strategy is recommended for the price difference between months. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on absolute prices. [5]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/26 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/06/19 | - | 78.85 | - | 1.17 | 1.77 | - | 3.51 | - | - | - | - | | 2025/06/20 | 73.84 | 77.01 | 71.20 | 1.17 | 1.53 | -3.17 | 3.72 | 232.95 | 20.83 | 254.18 | 29.75 | | 2025/06/23 | 68.51 | 71.48 | 69.88 | 1 ...

日本经济产业大臣武藤容治：如果霍尔木兹海峡局势扰乱供应，可能动用石油库存。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 1.3 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease of 900,000 barrels, putting short-term pressure on oil prices [1] - Gasoline inventories rose by 800,000 barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 600,000 barrels, indicating a mixed supply-demand scenario [1] - Despite weak demand, refinery processing activity increased, with an average processing rate of 16.5 million barrels per day, reflecting preparations for the upcoming summer driving season [1] Inventory Data - As of the week ending May 16, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories reached 443.2 million barrels, which is still 6% lower than the five-year average [1] - Propane/propylene inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels, indicating tight supply conditions [1] - Gasoline and distillate production increased to 9.6 million barrels per day and 4.7 million barrels per day, respectively, contributing to market oversupply [2] Demand Trends - Over the past four weeks, the average daily supply of petroleum products in the U.S. was 19.6 million barrels, down 2.8% year-on-year [1] - Gasoline demand decreased by 1% year-on-year, while distillate demand fell by 4.2%, highlighting overall weak consumption [1] - Jet fuel demand showed a positive trend, increasing by 4% year-on-year, indicating signs of recovery in the travel industry [1] Import Dynamics - Average crude oil imports were 6.1 million barrels per day, up by 24,700 barrels week-on-week, but down 13.5% year-on-year [2] - Gasoline imports reached 747,000 barrels per day, and distillate imports were 141,000 barrels per day, contributing to inventory growth [2]