贵金属日报: 金震银涨 聚焦周四凌晨美联储FOMC 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月18日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场金震银涨，周边美指回升，10Y美债收益率回落，美股下跌，反映为美元避险资产需求回 升。中东地缘局势的波动是短期影响金价主因，建议密切关注局势进展。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报 3406.5美元/盎司，-0.32%；美白银2507合约收报于37.18美元/盎司，+2.01%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约 收报785.08元/克，-1.46%；SHFE白银2508合约收8864元/千克，+0.45%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为97.3%，降息25个基点的概率为 2.7%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为85.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为14.4%，累计降息50个基点的 概率为0.3%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率36.7%，累计降息25个基点的概率为54.8%，累计降息50个基 点的概率为8.3%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0.2%。长线基金看，SPD ...

16 June 2025 | 2:29AM EDT US Economics Analyst June FOMC Preview: A Cautious Take on Tariffs (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-31 ...

V i e w p o i n t | Limited signs of tariff impact in PPI prices CITI'S TAKE Producer prices rose a modest 0.1%MoM in May after declining (although with upward revisions) in April, suggesting still very limited signs of abnormally strong price increases due to tariffs. Of course, May could still be too soon to see much tariff impact on prices and we still expect to see higher goods prices by late-summer/early-fall. Goods prices in PPI could be even stronger than in CPI, reflecting a wider range of goods rat ...

If we cut our interest by one point for years, we save 300 billion. If we cut it by two points, we save because it's pretty equivalent. We're going to save we're going to spend 600 billion a year. 600 billion because of one numpkull that sits here. I don't see enough reason to cut the rates now. And the the problem he's got is that and I explained to him, look, if inflation went up, cut your rates now. There's no inflation. We got it down. We got prices down. We got gasoline down. And you you'll keep it goi ...

On today's episode of Catalysts, host Madison Mills speaks with Yahoo Finance Senior Washington Correspondent Jennifer Schonberger on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's upcoming testimony and President Trump's latest comments on a China trade deal. Bob Lang, Explosive Options technical analyst, joins the show to explain how cooling inflation could open the door to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre analyzes ARK Innovation ETF's Tesla-driven moves ahead of ...

M Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts Next 12 Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls Skewed to the Downside: The broad imposition of tariffs by the US is a structural shock to the global trading order. The tariffs themselves and the associated uncertainty will weigh notably on growth, but given the strong starting point coming into the year, we do not expect a global recession. Despite recent tariff announcements, we still expect baseline tariff rates to remain the same as our outlook, and we expect t ...

Key Takeaways Both MDU and SWX benefit from rising natural gas demand and interest rate cuts. MDU posts a higher ROE at 9.86% vs. SWX's 6.76%, and maintains a lower debt-to-capital ratio than its peer. In the past three months, MDU stock has lost 0.5% compared with SWX's 2.3% decline.Natural gas distribution pipelines play a vital role in delivering natural gas from intrastate and interstate transmission pipelines to consumers through small-diameter pipelines. The natural gas network in the United States ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock is experiencing a rebound after a significant sell-off, driven by broader market trends and easing tensions involving CEO Elon Musk [1][2][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tesla's share price increased by 5.6% as of 3 p.m. ET on Friday, following a 14.3% decline on Thursday [1][4]. - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite index increased by 1.3% during the same period [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The recovery in Tesla's stock is attributed to positive employment data that alleviates inflation concerns, contributing to a bullish market sentiment [2][6]. - The U.S. economy added 139,000 non-farm jobs in May, surpassing the expected 125,000, although previous months' job additions were revised downward [6][7]. Group 3: CEO Dynamics - Tensions between Elon Musk and President Trump had intensified, leading to negative investor sentiment; however, indications suggest that this conflict may be de-escalating, which has positively impacted Tesla's stock [4][5]. - Musk's previous support for Trump was seen as a potential avenue for growth, and the recent feud had caused investor concerns [5]. Group 4: Future Catalysts - Macroeconomic factors, including the potential for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, are expected to influence Tesla's stock performance this year, alongside the rollout of its robotaxi service and vehicle sales [7][8].

President Trump and Elon Musk have had a falling out in recent days. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty ... More Images)Getty ImagesKey Takeaways Trump-Musk feud rattles markets; Tesla dives 14% as political tensions shake investor confidence Jobs report beats forecast slightly, but downward revisions temper enthusiasm and bond yields rise Tariffs, forecasts disappoint: Lululemon, DocuSign, Broadcom stocks fall sharply in premarket tradingMajor indices were relatively quiet on Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% and ...

Core Insights - Newmont Corporation (NEM) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) are significant players in the gold mining industry, with global operations and diversified portfolios. Gold prices, while down from April 2025 highs, remain favorable due to safe-haven demand amid trade and geopolitical uncertainties, currently above $3,300 per ounce [1][2]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased approximately 28% this year, driven by aggressive trade policies, global trade tensions, and central bank accumulation of gold reserves. Prices peaked at $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, amid calls for interest rate cuts [3]. Newmont Corporation (NEM) - Newmont is actively investing in growth projects, including the Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia and the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana, aimed at increasing production capacity and extending mine life [5]. - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has enhanced Newmont's portfolio, generating $500 million in annual run-rate synergies and creating a multi-decade production profile [6]. - Newmont has divested non-core assets, generating total after-tax cash proceeds of $4.3 billion, which includes $1.7 billion from three assets sold in March 2025 and $850 million from additional sales [7]. - The company reported liquidity of $8.8 billion at the end of Q1 2025, with operating cash flow increasing 162% year-over-year to around $2 billion [8]. - Newmont returned $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and reduced debt by $1 billion since the beginning of 2025, maintaining a long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of around 20% [10]. Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) - Kinross has a strong production profile with key projects like Great Bear in Ontario and Round Mountain Phase X in Nevada, expected to enhance production and cash flow [11]. - Tasiast and Paracatu are the main contributors to Kinross's cash flow, with Tasiast being the lowest-cost asset and achieving record production in 2024 [12]. - Kinross ended Q1 2025 with liquidity of approximately $2.3 billion and generated record free cash flows of around $1.3 billion in 2024 [13]. - The company repaid $800 million of debt in 2024, reducing net debt to around $540 million, with a long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of 14.4% [14]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, NEM stock has increased by 46.5%, while KGC stock has risen by 66.8%, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 54.4% [15]. - NEM trades at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.59, approximately 10% below the industry average of 14X, while KGC trades at a premium with a multiple of 13.37 [18][20]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM's 2025 sales and EPS indicates a year-over-year rise of 2% and 20.1%, respectively, while KGC's estimates imply growth of 15.3% and 63.2% [21][24]. Investment Considerations - Both Newmont and Kinross are well-positioned to benefit from favorable gold prices, demonstrating strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns. Newmont is viewed as a more attractive investment due to its valuation and higher dividend yield [25].