Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is seen as a response to economic uncertainties, balancing job market weaknesses against inflation risks [2][6] - Bond fund managers at firms like BlackRock and PGIM are focusing on middle-maturity Treasuries, which are less affected by economic volatility and have provided solid returns [3][7] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed's quarter-point rate cut is characterized as a "risk management cut," with future decisions to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis [6] - The Fed's forecasts suggest two more rate reductions are likely this year, despite recent comments causing bond yields to rise [6] Group 2: Economic Conditions - A significant slowdown in hiring has been noted, influenced by external factors such as trade tensions, while other economic elements remain resilient [5] - The potential for renewed inflation due to tariff hikes poses a challenge to the Fed's target of 2% inflation [5] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The strategy of investing in the "belly" of the yield curve, particularly 5- to 7-year Treasuries, has proven successful, with returns of approximately 7% compared to the broader market's 5.4% [7]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a reaceleration in job growth and GDP, with projections indicating potential surprises to the upside for Q3 and Q4 [3][10] - The Dow is projected to reach 50,000 and the S&P 500 to 7,000 by Q1 of 2026, driven by earnings reaceleration and economic growth [12] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates again, with expectations of one or two more cuts, although this is not seen as the beginning of a grand rate-cutting cycle [9][10] - The Fed is perceived to be behind the curve in its decision-making, with suggestions that they should have cut rates earlier in the year [8] Inflation Trends - Inflation is expected to stabilize in the upper twos to low threes, with a long-term trend towards lower inflation rates [5][4] - The current inflation battle is viewed as misdirected, with a belief that the focus should shift to other economic indicators [4][5] Sector Performance - Small caps are favored, with recommendations to buy on pullbacks, as they are expected to perform well despite high valuations in larger stocks [20][21] - Financials and biotech sectors are also viewed positively, with potential opportunities in energy stocks as crude oil prices stabilize [21][22] Market Sentiment - There is a belief that panic selling has occurred, leading to minor pullbacks and a strong performance chase among fund managers [13][15] - The current market rally is seen as a result of significant cash positions held by managers who are now seeking to catch up with benchmarks [15]

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin post FOMC. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in. So, Bitcoin is still doing what it needs to do, right.It's still holding above the bull market support band. Remember that's the big test for September is to just hold that 20we SMA. ...

Now, let's turn to financials. They initially popped on the back of the Fed's rate cut, but then came off those gains. Still, financials have been gaining in the past three months, up more than 7%.The gains continue now that we got one rate cut with potentially more on the way. Joining us now is McCrae Sykes, portfolio portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. Mac, welcome.Um, you know, the KRE up there near 65. Can it keep moving higher if we get as many cuts as the Fed governors expect. Well, it was pretty exci ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in its benchmark interest rate, setting the new federal funds rate target range at 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [2][9] - JPMorgan Chase & Co. will cut its prime lending rate to 7.25%, effective September 18, reflecting the immediate impact of the Fed's monetary policy shift on commercial lending rates [3][9] - Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital supported the Fed's rate cut but warned of potential higher inflation risks if the Fed continues to ease excessively, anticipating a steepening yield curve and a decline in the U.S. dollar [4][9] Group 2: Corporate Partnerships - PayPal and Google Cloud announced a multiyear strategic partnership aimed at revolutionizing commerce, integrating PayPal's payment solutions across various Google products [5][9] - The partnership will see PayPal leveraging Google Cloud to modernize its technology infrastructure and collaborate on new AI-driven shopping experiences [5][9] Group 3: Geopolitical Developments - The European Union presented a new strategic agenda to deepen relations with India, aiming to enhance cooperation in defense, trade, technology, and connectivity, with a commitment to finalize a bilateral free trade agreement by year-end [6][9] - EU officials acknowledged challenges due to India's "problematic" relations with Russia, which may hinder deeper partnerships [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand these instruments fully before engaging in trading activities [1]. - The content may include advertisements and promotional materials, with the website potentially receiving compensation from third parties [1].

Group 1 - The current trend shows a decline in deposit account rates, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1][2] - As of September 16, 2025, the highest CD rate available is 4.45% APY, offered by LendingClub for an 8-month CD, while short-term CDs (6 to 12 months) generally offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY [2] - Historical trends indicate that CD rates have fluctuated significantly due to economic events, with rates falling to around 1% APY for one-year CDs by 2009 after the financial crisis [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's policies have greatly influenced CD rates, with ultra-low rates prevailing from 2009 until a gradual increase began in 2015, followed by a drop during the COVID-19 pandemic [5][6] - Post-pandemic, the Fed raised rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, leading to higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [6] - By September 2024, the Fed started cutting the federal funds rate, resulting in a decrease in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [7] Group 3 - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offered higher interest rates, but currently, the highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [8] - When selecting a CD, factors such as goals, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation should be considered to ensure the best fit for individual needs [9]

Company Overview - Trinity Asset Management was founded by Brian Gilmartin in May 1995, focusing on individual investors and institutions that require more attention and service than what larger firms provide [1] - Brian Gilmartin has extensive experience in the investment industry, starting as a fixed-income/credit analyst and later managing equity and balanced accounts for clients [1] Professional Background - Brian Gilmartin has a BSBA in Finance from Xavier University and an MBA in Finance from Loyola University, with the CFA designation awarded in 1994 [1] - He has contributed to various financial publications, including TheStreet.com and Wall Street AllStars, and has been quoted in numerous outlets such as the Wall Street Journal [1]

Market Outlook & Fed Policy - The market has priced in many positives, leaving room for the Federal Reserve to disappoint next week [2] - The key focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the committee's rate guidance for the end of 2026; a convergence with the rates market is needed to avoid disappointment [3][4] - A weakening labor market is a defining macro characteristic, suggesting growth-side risks for the equity market and the need for a bond position [10][11] Investment Strategies - Broadening investment portfolios beyond tech is recommended, considering areas like small caps, energy, and international markets [6][7][8] - Small caps are poised to benefit from declining interest rates due to their floating rate and short-term debt structures, along with less regulation and more M&A activity [7] - Offsetting equity positions with a bond position (duration) is suggested, especially given the potential for a pullback in the second half of September [9] Interest Rate & Bond Market - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut next week [2][3] - The yield curve is positively sloped now, suggesting that rates across the curve should come down as the Fed starts its rate-cutting cycle, unlike the previous year when the yield curve was inverted [16][17] - Expect the 10-year Treasury yield to break below 4%, surprising many due to recency bias related to the bond market's reaction to previous rate cuts [18] Economic Indicators - Despite concerns about the labor market, other data points like GDP growth, company earnings, and consumer strength suggest a continued strong economy [13]

Group 1 - The market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with expectations of a total of 75 basis points by the end of the year [3][6][14] - Treasury volatility is at a three-year low, with the 10-year yield approaching 4%, indicating a stable bond market [1][4] - Credit risk measures have fallen to their lowest levels since February, raising concerns about potential complacency among investors [1][25] Group 2 - Inflation remains a concern, with indications that it may be stickier than previously thought, which could impact the Fed's rate-cutting strategy [2][9][18] - The bond market is perceived to be underpricing inflation risks, suggesting that investors may not be adequately compensated for extending out the yield curve [18][20] - There is a notable disconnect in the high-yield market, with a significant portion of issuance being for refinancing or debt repayment, indicating limited new money entering the market [27][28] Group 3 - The demand for high-grade credit remains robust, with Wells Fargo leading a $4 billion deal, although overall issuance has slowed [22][23] - The credit market is currently pricing in low risk levels, similar to late 1990s, despite increased issuance, suggesting a potential overconfidence among investors [25][26] - The performance of credit portfolios shows a trend of quality upgrades outpacing downgrades, indicating a generally healthy credit environment [23][24]