Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant achievements and ongoing efforts in urban development in China, guided by the leadership of Xi Jinping, highlighting the unique path of urbanization that aligns with Chinese characteristics [1][5][13]. Group 1: Urban Development Achievements - Over 690 cities in China accommodate 940 million people, showcasing the rapid urbanization process [1]. - The urbanization rate of the permanent population increased from 53.1% in 2012 to 67% in 2024, with over 1.5 million new urban jobs created from 2013 to 2024 [10]. - By 2024, 27 cities are projected to have a GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan [10]. Group 2: Urban Planning and Governance - The central government emphasizes the importance of urban planning, stating that effective planning is crucial for sustainable urban development [8][24]. - The "Five Coordinations" principle was introduced to enhance urban work, focusing on spatial, structural, and management aspects [7]. - Xi Jinping has called for a shift towards more refined urban management, likening it to "embroidery" to ensure precision in urban governance [19][20]. Group 3: Community and Public Services - The government has made strides in improving public services for urban residents, including healthcare, education, and housing [14][34]. - Urban renewal initiatives have led to the renovation of 280,000 old residential communities, benefiting over 120 million people [34]. - The focus on community governance aims to enhance the quality of life for residents, ensuring their needs are met [26][27]. Group 4: Environmental and Cultural Preservation - Significant improvements in urban ecological environments have been noted, with 87.2% of cities achieving good air quality [30]. - The preservation of historical and cultural sites is prioritized, with efforts to maintain the integrity of urban heritage [32][33]. - Urban development strategies are designed to integrate nature into city planning, promoting green spaces and sustainable practices [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 50.1% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report anticipates further policy support to stabilize the real estate market, with potential measures including mortgage rate cuts and increased supply of quality housing [2][36]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 1.983 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 50.1% [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in July decreased by 16.0%, with first and second-tier cities down by 15.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 23.4% [4][11]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.078 million square meters, a week-on-week decline of 6.6% [11]. - Year-to-date, second-hand home sales have increased by 8.8% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In 15 cities, 880,000 square meters of new homes were launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.71, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [20][21]. - The average months of inventory for new homes is 19.6 months, reflecting a slight increase [20]. Policy and News Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission is increasing investment in key areas of new urbanization, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate the housing market [30][31]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as restrictions on the registration of small property rights houses in Guangdong and new housing subsidy programs in Wuxi [30][31]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies are actively engaging in financing and capital market operations, with notable activities including Shenzhen Tianjian Group's issuance of medium-term notes worth 650 million yuan [36]. - Companies like Beike-W are also engaging in share buybacks, indicating confidence in their market position [36]. Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index [2][36]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for major A-share real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.7 and 13.1 times, respectively [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Treasury bond futures significantly corrected this week. The "anti-involution" signal and the market's expectation of real estate updates created short-term bearish sentiment. The stock-bond seesaw effect continued to amplify, and the bond market was under full pressure. However, the current weak economic fundamentals remain unchanged, coupled with a balanced and loose capital situation. There is still room for policy easing under low inflation, and the long-term support logic of the bond market is difficult to be substantially broken in the short term. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after confirming stability [94]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Bond Futures Contracts**: The main contracts of 30-year (TL2509), 10-year (T2509), 5-year (TF2509), and 2-year (TS2509) Treasury bond futures fell by 0.49%, 0.25%, 0.24%, and 0.09% respectively this week. The closing prices of the main contracts of each term are presented in corresponding charts [12][16][22]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all increased. The open interests of the main contracts of TS and T decreased, while those of TF and TL increased [30]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: "14th Five-Year Plan" achievements show that China's economic increment is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, and this year's economic aggregate is expected to reach about 1.4 quadrillion yuan. In June, CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. The State Council issued a notice on further strengthening employment stabilization policies. In the first half of 2025, significant breakthroughs were made in prospecting for important minerals in China [33]. - **Overseas News**: US President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1, 2025, and plans to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on 22 countries starting from August. The Fed's internal differences over the impact of tariffs on the inflation path have increased, but the policy tone remains cautiously wait-and-see [35][93]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The yield spreads between 10-year and 5-year, 10-year and 1-year Treasury bonds, as well as the spreads between the main contracts of 2-year and 5-year, 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures all narrowed slightly. The inter - term spreads of 10-year contracts narrowed slightly, while those of 30-year contracts widened slightly. The inter - term spreads of 2-year contracts narrowed slightly, and those of 5-year contracts fluctuated [43][47][53]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased significantly [64]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates increased, while 2 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates decreased. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.47%. The yields of domestic Treasury bonds weakened, with the 1 - 7Y yields rising by about 3.2 - 4.0bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields rising by about 1.9bp and 2.5bp to 1.66% and 1.87% respectively. The yield spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds both narrowed slightly [68][72]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 425.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchases in the open market this week, with 652.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.47% [75]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bond issuance was 1.145151 trillion yuan, with a total repayment of 850.151 billion yuan and a net financing of 295 billion yuan [77]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1475, with a cumulative increase of 60 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB strengthened. The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased slightly, the VIX index decreased significantly, the 10 - year Treasury yield in China increased slightly, and the A - share risk premium decreased [81][87][90]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In June, the price level continued to be under pressure. The CPI index improved marginally, turning from a year - on - year decrease to an increase. The PPI of industrial products remained in the negative range, falling into a deflationary range of negative growth for 7 consecutive months. The "anti - involution" signal and the issuance of fiscal subsidy funds in July may support subsequent prices and promote a moderate recovery of the inflation level [93]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US labor market continues to show resilience, and trade risks have resurfaced. The Fed's internal differences over the impact of tariffs on the inflation path have increased, but the policy tone remains cautiously wait - and - see, and there is no consensus on the expectation of interest rate cuts [93]. - **Investment Strategy**: Observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after confirming stability [94].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On July 10, the liquidity tightened marginally, with major repo rates rising slightly. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the bond market weakened significantly. The convertible bond market followed the equity market and rose, with most individual convertible bonds increasing. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally increased, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies also mostly rose [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a policy briefing on the "1 + 6" reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board. The National Development and Reform Commission plans to increase investment in key areas of new - type urbanization using "two important and two new" funds [3]. - **International News**: On July 10, Fed Governor Waller suggested considering a rate cut in July, stating that the current federal funds rate is overly restrictive [4]. - **Commodities**: On July 10, international crude oil futures prices declined (WTI August crude futures fell 2.19% to $66.88/barrel, Brent September crude futures fell 2.2% to $68.64/barrel), while international natural gas prices rose (NYMEX natural gas prices rose 4.96% to $3.365/ounce), and COMEX gold futures rose 0.38% to $3333.67/ounce [6]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations**: On July 10, the central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 57.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 32.8 billion yuan [8]. - **Funding Rates**: On July 10, the liquidity tightened marginally, with DR001 rising 0.56bp to 1.323% and DR007 rising 1.78bp to 1.495% [9]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 10, affected by factors such as the continuous improvement of the stock market, marginal tightening of liquidity, and rumors that Hebei Province guided rural commercial banks to reduce the proportion of bond investments, the bond market weakened significantly. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 1.45bp to 1.6595%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250210 rose 1.40bp to 1.7380% [11]. - **Bond Tendering**: Details of bond issuances including various bonds such as 25贴现国开清发02, 25国开清发02(增发19), etc., are provided, including their tenors, issuance scales, winning yields, over - subscription ratios, and marginal ratios [13]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 10, 2 industrial bonds ("H1碧地02" down over 34% and "23亦庄06" up over 11%) and 1 urban investment bond ("20泗阳佳鼎债" down over 18%) had transaction price deviations exceeding 10% [14][15]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Events include bond restructuring of Longfor Group, regulatory warnings for Lan创建设, debt - related issues of Xi'an Quwen Investment, Jiangsu Nantong Sanjian, etc., as well as bond repayment and interest - rate adjustment plans of some companies [16]. 3.4 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 10, the three major A - share indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 0.48%, 0.47%, and 0.22% respectively, and the full - day trading volume reaching 1.52 trillion yuan. The main convertible bond indexes also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index up 0.40%, 0.40%, and 0.45% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 68.377 billion yuan, a decrease of 994 million yuan from the previous trading day. Among 469 convertible bonds, 338 rose, 123 fell, and 8 remained flat [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On July 10, Zhite Convertible Bond announced an early redemption, and Hongcheng Convertible Bond announced that it was about to meet the early redemption conditions [19]. 3.5 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 10, the yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury remained unchanged at 3.86%, while yields of other tenors generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury rose 1bp to 4.35%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread widened by 1bp to 49bp, and the 5/30 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed by 2bp to 93bp. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) rose 1bp to 2.34% [20][21][22]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 10, the yield of the 10 - year UK government bond remained unchanged, while yields of 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond rose 3bp to 2.66%, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in France, Italy, and Spain rose 4bp, 4bp, and 1bp respectively [23]. - **Chinese - Issued Dollar Bonds**: Price changes of Chinese - issued dollar bonds as of the close on July 10 are provided, including daily and monthly changes of bonds issued by companies such as Oceanwide, Country Garden, NIO, etc. [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of today's futures main contracts. It anticipates that stock index futures will show a relatively strong oscillation, while silver, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures will oscillate with an upward bias. Rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and glass futures will also have a relatively strong oscillation, and crude oil futures will oscillate weakly [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with Egyptian Prime Minister Madbouly, expressing China's willingness to strengthen development strategy alignment and expand cooperation in emerging fields [8]. - Chinese Vice - Premier Ding Xuexiang met with former US Treasury Secretary Paulson, stating that China is a major stabilizing factor in the world and hopes the US to develop mutually beneficial and stable economic and trade relations [8]. - The Chinese Ministry of Finance interpreted policies restricting EU medical device procurement, with specific budget thresholds and exceptions for EU - funded enterprises in China [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission's Urban and Small Town Reform and Development Center aims to promote high - quality new urbanization actions [8]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to Sino - US negotiations, rumors about Huang Renxun's visit to China, and refuted von der Leyen's remarks on over - capacity [9]. - China's retirees' basic pensions have increased by 2% since January 1, 2025 [9]. - In the first half of this year, local governments issued nearly 1.8 trillion yuan in replacement bonds, and experts suggest continuing debt risk resolution in the second half [9]. - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates and considered appointing a "shadow chairman" [10]. - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025 [10]. - Fed Governor Waller suggested considering a rate cut in July and reducing the balance sheet [10]. - Fed's Daly believes the Fed may cut rates twice this year, with policy uncertainties [11]. - Fed's Musalem said future inflation expectations may rise due to tariffs [12]. - The US Department of Defense will invest $4 billion in MP Materials [12]. - US initial jobless claims decreased for the fourth consecutive week, while continuing claims remained high [12]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit and margin standards for polysilicon futures contracts [12]. - International oil prices fell due to concerns about global demand and an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories [12]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, supported by inflation concerns and central bank gold purchases [13]. - London base metals mostly closed higher, with copper prices showing an oscillatory trend [13]. - OPEC adjusted its global oil demand forecast, and OPEC + is discussing production adjustments [13]. - China's summer grain production was stable in 2025 [13]. - China's auto production and sales increased in June, especially for new energy vehicles [14]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar strengthened, and the exchange rate is expected to appreciate further [14]. - The US dollar index rose due to global trade uncertainties [14] 2. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On July 10, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all showed an upward trend with varying degrees of increase. It is expected that in July 2025, these stock index futures will have a relatively strong oscillation, and on July 11, they will continue this trend with specific resistance and support levels provided [15][19][20]. Treasury Bond Futures - On July 10, the main contracts of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures both declined. It is expected that on July 11, they will continue to oscillate weakly, with specific resistance and support levels given [40][42][45]. Precious Metal Futures - Gold futures showed an upward trend on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will have a wide - range oscillation, and on July 11, the main contract will oscillate and consolidate. Silver futures had a slight increase on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will oscillate strongly, and on July 11, the main contract will oscillate with an upward bias and may reach new highs [45][46][52]. Base Metal Futures - Copper futures had a slight increase on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will have a wide - range oscillation, and on July 11, the main contract will oscillate and consolidate. Aluminum futures rose on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will oscillate strongly, and on July 11, the main contract will oscillate with an upward bias. Alumina, zinc, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures all showed upward trends on July 10, and it is expected that on July 11, they will continue to oscillate with an upward bias [55][61][66]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil futures had a slight increase on July 10. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract will oscillate strongly, but on July 11, the main contract will oscillate weakly. PTA and methanol futures are expected to oscillate weakly on July 11, while PVC and soda ash futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate and may attack resistance levels [7][102][108]. Building Materials and Metals Futures - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures all showed upward trends on July 10. It is expected that on July 11, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and glass futures will continue to oscillate with an upward bias, and soda ash futures will oscillate and consolidate and may attack resistance levels [4][82][90]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - Lithium carbonate futures had a slight decline on July 10. It is expected that on July 11, it will oscillate with an upward bias and may attack resistance levels [79].

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a slight increase on July 10, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3509.68 points, up 0.48%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 10631.13 points, up 0.47% [1][4][9] - A total of 20 out of 30 sectors in the CITIC first-level industry rose, with real estate, oil and petrochemicals, and non-bank financials leading the gains, while automotive, media, and computer sectors saw significant declines [1][4][9] - The total trading volume of the A-shares was 151.51 billion yuan, which was a decrease compared to the previous day [1][4][9] Overseas Market Overview - On July 10, major U.S. stock indices mostly rose, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.43%, the S&P 500 rising by 0.27%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.09%, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching historical highs [2][4] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.9%, indicating a positive trend for Chinese concept stocks in the U.S. market [2][4] Key News Highlights - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized increasing investment in new urbanization through targeted funding strategies [3][11] - A 2% increase in pensions for retirees was announced, effective from January 1, 2025 [3][12] - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated a special action to combat the smuggling and export of strategic minerals [3][14] - A new action plan to boost consumption in Beijing aims for an average annual growth of 5% in total market consumption by 2030 [3][16] - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025, which may impact market sentiment [3][17] Market Drivers - The Ministry of Commerce indicated ongoing communication between China and the U.S. regarding trade issues, which may influence market dynamics [10][15] - The automotive market in China showed strong performance in the first half of the year, with production and sales exceeding 15 million units, reflecting over 10% growth year-on-year [19] - The residential land transfer fees in 300 cities increased by 27.5% year-on-year, indicating a robust real estate market despite a 5.5% decline in transaction area [19]

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Market Overview - Major market indices rose on July 10, with a trading volume of 1.52 trillion, a slight decrease of approximately 10 billion from the previous trading day[1] - The financial sector significantly contributed to the index's rise, despite nearly half of the industries experiencing minor declines[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.48%, returning above 3500 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 0.47% and 0.22%, respectively[3] Sector Performance - Real estate, oil, steel, and finance sectors led the gains, while automotive, media, and military industries saw slight declines[1] - The photovoltaic sector showed signs of recovery from low levels, indicating potential upward momentum[2] Capital Flow - On July 10, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 21.276 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 9.779 billion[3] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were securities, real estate development, and chemical pharmaceuticals, while components, gaming, and automotive parts faced the largest outflows[3] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that summer grain production reached 299.48 billion jin, a decrease of 3.1 billion jin from the previous year, with wheat production at 276.32 billion jin, down 3.3 billion jin[10] - In June, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 48.6% of total vehicle sales, with new energy passenger vehicles at 51.8% and commercial vehicles at 25.2%[9] Fund Performance - Over 2000 private equity funds reached new net asset value highs in June, with over 90% of large-scale private equity funds achieving positive returns[11] - The number of billion-yuan quantitative private equity funds increased to 41, surpassing the number of subjective private equity funds for the first time[12]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-11 不锈钢盘面拉涨，现货小幅跟涨 镍品种 市场分析 2025-07-10日沪镍主力合约2508开于119140元/吨，收于121140元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化1.41%，当日成交量为 102155手，持仓量为65815手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘开盘小幅上冲后横盘振荡，日盘继续横盘振荡振荡，午后快速拉升突破上方阻力后继续上涨， 收大阳线。成交量较上个交易日有所减少，持仓量较上个交易日有所减少。国家发展改革委城市和小城镇改革发 展中心近日表示，锚定到2035年基本实现新型城镇化目标，紧抓城镇化动力仍然较强的关键时期，高质量推进新 型城镇化四大行动，为中国式现代化提供有力支撑。菲律宾方面，苏里高矿区降雨仍存，加之季节性台风影响， 装船出货效率迟缓。印尼方面，镍矿供应紧缺问题因印尼当地园区各冶炼厂出现减产得以缓解。7月（一期）内贸 升水维持+24-25。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上调约450元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应上 调，盘面镍价快速回升，重回12万，需求未见明显增长，部分贸易商下调现货升贴水以促成交，下游企业按需采 购为主，现货成交一般。其中金川镍 ...

Group 1: Domestic News - Shanghai Stock Exchange held a policy briefing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to enhance communication with market participants and promote reforms to support innovation and high-quality development [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized increasing investment in key areas of new urbanization, targeting to achieve basic new urbanization goals by 2035 [2] Group 2: International News - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested considering a rate cut in July, stating that the current federal funds rate is overly restrictive and may need to be lowered if inflation continues to decline [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - On July 10, the bond market weakened significantly due to multiple negative factors, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 1.45 basis points to 1.6595% [8] - The convertible bond market saw most individual bonds rise, with 338 out of 469 convertible bonds increasing in value [17] Group 4: Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 2.19% to $66.88 per barrel, while natural gas prices rose by 4.96% to $3.365 per million British thermal units [4] Group 5: Financial Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net fund injection of 328 billion yuan for the day [5]