2025年第31周，中央和地方继续加快推进落实稳市场相关工作，中央政治局会议要求高质量开展城市 更新，并巩固资本市场回稳向好势头。央行设立中国人民银行宏观审慎和金融稳定委员会，完善房地 产金融宏观审慎管理，支持加快构建房地产发展新模式。地方上城市更新相关政策高频推进，本周4 省市发布相关政策，如厦门发文允许老旧小区自主更新，更新改造后面积最高可增加20%。 0 1 政策趋势：优化公积金仍是稳市场主要抓手 城市更新与保障安居发布频次并列第二 统计近1个月稳市场发布频次，公积金相关政策提及次数最多，主要涉及多子女贷款额度优惠、提取方式优 化、首付款比例下调等方面；在7月中旬召开城市工作会议之后，城市更新相关稳市场政策发声频率明显提 升，与保障安居类并列第二；税费补贴与优惠政策则排在了第三的位置。 0 2 中央：7·30政治局会议聚焦城市更新 央行特别设立委员会落实相关要求 中央层面， 7月30日政治局会议要求落实城市工作会议精神，高质量开展城市更新；加快政府债券发行使用， 提高资金使用效率； 增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头。自7月15日中共中央 召开城市工作会议后，7月下半月以来住建部 ...

Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization despite challenges such as high inventory and price declines, supported by government policies aimed at market stabilization [2][3][4] - The demand for housing in the top 20 cities is expected to remain strong, with an annual incremental demand of approximately 300 million square meters driven by population growth and housing improvement needs [3][36] - The supply of residential land is projected to decrease by 20% year-on-year by 2025, which is expected to help balance supply and demand [4][10] Group 1: Market Structure - Shanghai and Beijing continue to dominate the real estate market, with the top 50 cities accounting for over half of the new housing sales and GDP [1][22] - The demand-side support has led to rising rankings for some coastal cities, with Hainan province particularly benefiting from favorable policies [2][28] - The top 20 cities are projected to have an annual incremental demand of 300 million square meters due to population concentration and improvement needs [3][36] Group 2: Supply and Inventory - The supply of residential land is expected to decrease by 20% year-on-year by 2025, which will help to alleviate inventory pressure and promote market balance [4][10] - Inventory issues vary significantly across cities, necessitating tailored approaches to inventory management [4][10] - The broad and narrow inventory indicators are showing improvements, indicating a reduction in overall inventory pressure [2][19] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The top 20 cities are expected to see a robust annual incremental housing demand of 300 million square meters, driven by population growth and housing quality improvements [3][36] - The demand for housing in first-tier cities remains stable, with significant improvement in high-end residential markets [39][46] - The demand dynamics in second-tier cities are also promising, with cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu showing strong market performance [47][52] Group 4: City Rankings and Performance - The rankings of cities have shown significant changes, with second-tier cities like Tianjin and Nanjing improving due to better inventory management [30][32] - Coastal cities, particularly in Hainan, have seen notable improvements in rankings due to strong demand-side support [28][30] - The overall performance of the top 50 cities reflects a concentration of population and economic activity, with these cities accounting for 34% of the national population and 50% of GDP [26][30]