Economic Outlook - The employment report is weaker than expected due to downward revisions, raising recession fears, but the analysis suggests a "rolling recession" [2] - The expectation is for a strong recovery, possibly starting as a "rolling recovery", with upside surprises in real growth and productivity, and downside surprises on inflation by the midterm elections next year [5][6] - Geopolitical risks remain, particularly concerning Russia-Ukraine, China, and Mexico, but the biggest uncertainty is the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy [7][8] Fiscal Policy - Year-to-date deficit as a percentage of GDP has shrunk from approximately 73% to 62% [10] - Tariffs are annualizing at an estimated $450 billion per year, potentially leading to a deficit of roughly 47% of GDP [10] - The analysis suggests that the deficit as a percentage of GDP could reach 3% by the end of 2026, two years ahead of the Treasury Secretary's objective [11][12] - Approximately 75% of capital spending will benefit from permanent expensing, which is expected to attract manufacturing back to the United States and boost productivity [18] - Factoring in expensing, the US corporate tax rate could effectively drop to the 12-14% range [19] Monetary Policy - Despite Chairman Powell's hawkish tone, the data suggests the Fed may ease, with odds for a rate cut in September up to 88% and a 50 basis point rate cut at approximately 25% [4] - Real private domestic final sales are growing at approximately 1%, indicating cautious consumer behavior and a rising savings rate, potentially crossing 5% this year [21][22] - The 2-year Treasury yield less the 3-month Treasury yield is below zero, indicating restrictive monetary policy, which historically precedes recessions [26] - Truflation, which measures thousands of items in real time, suggests that inflation may stabilize and then decline towards or below 2% [33][24] Market Indicators - Economic policy uncertainty reached unprecedented levels during tariff turmoil, even higher than during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [36] - Revisions to non-farm payrolls were extreme, typically seen only in recessions, confirming the "rolling recession" [47] - Federal government employees are down by 84000 year-to-date, with an expected additional 150000 layoffs by the end of September, potentially impacting consumer confidence [48][49] - The consumer confidence index shows a decline in jobs being easy to get, suggesting potential economic weakness [51][52]

Labor Market & Economy - The labor market shows signs of weakening, with the prime age employment rate (25-54 years old) down approximately 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous year, which is atypical for a strong economy [2] - College unemployment rates are increasing, suggesting that rationalizations of the jobs data, such as attributing it to immigration, may be flawed [3] - Real personal consumption has decreased in the first six months of the year, a fact that is not widely recognized [6] Consumer Spending & Housing - The housing sector is experiencing a recession, indicated by a sharp decline in single-family permits [6] - Consumers are financially vulnerable, with real spending declining, including a notable weakening in services [6][7] - Consumers may lack the capacity to absorb higher prices, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts [5] Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging situation as inflation numbers might worsen during the summer [4] - Nominal incomes are slowing, providing a solid basis for policymakers like Governor Waller [4] - Broad capital expenditure (capex) outside of AI technology is expected to be sluggish due to companies' less optimistic outlook [7]

Wage Growth vs Inflation - Wage growth for many Americans lags behind inflation [1] - Low- and middle-paying job holders are experiencing the most financial strain [1]

Hello everyone. We've got a lot to discuss today. The government data is so bad that it may become a national crisis.Bitcoin and crypto, they can't stop winning, baby. Figma went public and retail investors got screwed like always. Carvana just completed the greatest comeback in Wall Street history.And humanoid robots, they're now doing your laundry. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano. [Music] All right, ladies and gentlemen, I've got very bad news for us.It is impossible to trust the govern ...

One example of how incompetent the Bureau of Labor Statistics has become, a startup (@truflation) built a more accurate, real-time inflation calculation in a matter of months.We can’t be successful if we don’t use modern technology. ...

>> LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C., THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" WITH JOE MATHIEU AND KAILEY LEINZ. JOE: WALL STREET ISN'T A BAD MOOD. WELCOME TO THE FRIDAY EDITION AS JOB GROWTH FALLS SHORT, PROMPTING A NEW ROUND OF CALLS FOR INTEREST RATE CUTS AS THE WHITE HOUSE PROCESS TERRORISTS FOR ALL ABOUT. -- IMPOSES TARIFFS FOR ALL ABOUT TRADING PARTNERS. A MASSIVE BREAKING STORY JUST MOMENTS AGO, YOU HEARD IT HAPPEN HERE ON BLOOMBERG. THE CORPORATION FOR PUBLIC BROADCASTING IS CLOSING DOWN, KAILEY, AFTER THE DEFENDING DE ...

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is horrendous at their collection of data, along with their calculation of economic data, but the President shouldn’t fire the organization’s leader right after a data print the administration doesn’t like.Fire the leader for the fact 1/3 of all inflation metric inputs are made up right now. Fire the leader for incompetence at measuring job growth during the last two administrations.Just do it when people aren’t going to claim it is a political decision. Distracts the conversa ...

It is impossible to trust many government economic data points.Job growth, inflation, and others are all manipulated or inaccurate.Insane problem! https://t.co/SimKILfSIo ...

The July jobs report coming in weaker than expected. President Trump just posting on Truth Social. Too little, too late. Jerome, too late.Powell is a disaster. Drop the rate. The good news is the tariffs are bringing billions of dollars into the USA.Clearly, the president thought that his tariffs were actually going to have this impact and therefore needed the Fed to make these moves. We're going to bring in Roger Ferguson right now. Uh former Fed vice chairman, now a CNBC contributor.What do you make of al ...

bluebay2014/iStock via Getty Images Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify Microsoft and Meta earnings bring comfort (0:20). Intel left out in the cold (2:20). Post-earnings declines (3:35). Strange and somewhat surprising Fed dynamics (7:55). Earnings next week, AMD most interesting (13:10). Transcript Rena Sherbill: Brian Stewart, our director of news at Seeking Alpha, welcome back to Wall Street Roundup. Brian Stewart: Great to be here. Thank you. RS: Lot of earnings as promised. ...