RT The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)BREAKING: The average cost of a family’s annual health insurance premium has jumped +6% YoY in 2025, to nearly $27,000, an all-time high.This marks the 3rd consecutive annual increase, following 2023 and 2024 gains of +7%.In other words, premiums are now rising faster than inflation for the 3rd year straight.Since 2000, the average health insurance premium has surged +350%.Small businesses are seeing the largest health-rate increases, with over half reporting +10% or ...

A growing chorus of Fed officials say they would have preferred to hold interest rates steady this week, voicing concern about inflation. Kansas City Federal Reserve president Jeff Schmid said Friday he favored no rate cut at this past week’s policy meeting because he’s more concerned that inflation is “too high” than he is about the job market, which he sees as largely in balance. “I do not think a 25-basis-point reduction in the policy rate will do much to address stresses in the labor market that more ...

The government shutdown is now 31 days old and there has been very little economic data coming from the government during that period. But there are some alternative sources that are providing labor and inflation statistics. For that we get to our senior economics reporter Steve Leeman.He's been searching for data high and low and he's come up with some pretty interesting things. Good morning Steve. >> Hey, good morning Becca.Yeah, we're able to put together a preliminary estimate of jobless claims. I'll ex ...

Core Insights - The price of chocolate has significantly increased, impacting consumer purchasing behavior during Halloween [1][2][3] Price Trends - Chocolate prices have surged nearly 30% since last Halloween and almost 78% over the past five years [2] - A 100-piece variety bag of candy now costs $16.39, up from $7.20 in 2020 [2] - Hershey's variety packs have increased by about 22%, while Mars has raised prices by approximately 12% [3] Consumer Behavior - Approximately 80% of Americans purchase candy for Halloween, which accounts for about 18% of annual U.S. confectionery sales [4] - Chocolate's share of Halloween candy sales has decreased from 52% last year to 44% this year, as consumers opt for cheaper alternatives [4] Economic Factors - "Macroeconomic headwinds" and wage growth lagging behind inflation are influencing consumer choices regarding discretionary spending [5] - Candy prices are rising faster than the national inflation rate, with a sector-wide increase of roughly 10% compared to last year [5] Market Outlook - Despite higher food prices, consumers are still allocating budget for chocolate and candy, indicating a strong and growing category [6] - The National Retail Federation anticipates 2025 will be a record year for candy sales in the U.S., with approximately $3.9 billion expected to be spent on Halloween candy alone [5]

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) Cryptocurrency prices ghosted downward over the last 24 hours, haunted by a sell-off in equities after major U.S. tech firms Meta and Microsoft raised their AI investment projections, prompting overspending concerns. Bitcoin (BTC) was little changed, dropping 0.3% to around $110,000 on the 17th anniversary of the publication of its white paper, while ether fell 1.3% to about $3,840. The not-so-spooky move comes as traders assess the shiftin ...

Core Insights - The U.S. does not have an official retirement age, with various ages for different retirement-related benefits [1] - A significant 35% of Americans are delaying retirement due to insufficient savings and inflation [2][8] - Strategies exist to overcome these challenges and retire on schedule [3][9] Retirement Savings Strategies - Fidelity recommends retiring with 10 times the ending salary to cover expenses [4] - Assessing spending and reducing bills can help increase retirement savings [4] - Engaging in a side hustle can provide additional income for retirement accounts [5] - Maximizing contributions to a 401(k) to claim workplace matches is essential [6] Inflation Mitigation - Inflation is a major barrier to timely retirement, but investing wisely can help [9] - Investing in the stock market through IRAs or S&P 500 index funds is advised to outpace inflation [9]

Company Overview - Chipotle's shares dropped over 15% following a quarter with flat same-store sales and declining traffic, marking the third consecutive reduction in annual sales guidance [1] - CEO Scott Boatwright attributed the decline to reduced consumer spending on dining out, particularly among the core demographic of 25- to 35-year-olds, influenced by factors such as unemployment, student loans, and slow wage growth [2][3] Industry Context - The challenges faced by Chipotle are reflective of broader issues within the fast-casual dining sector, with competitors like Sweetgreen and Cava also reporting disappointing earnings and declining same-store sales [5] - Sweetgreen's same-store sales fell by 8%, and Cava's growth has significantly slowed from double-digit increases to nearly zero in Q2 [5] - A KPMG survey indicated that nearly 70% of consumers are dining at home more frequently, with 85% citing cost-saving as the primary reason, and about 40% reporting a decrease in income, which has doubled from the previous year [5]

Euro-area inflation eased slightly but stayed above 2%, backing the European Central Bank’s decision to keep borrowing costs where they are https://t.co/Q8DfWFd3wI ...

Corporate Earnings - Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.2% increase in quarterly earnings for Q3 compared to the previous year, marking the smallest rise in two years [2] - Meta Platforms (META) reported weaker-than-expected Q3 EPS and raised its full-year total expense forecast, leading to a plunge of over -11% [3] - Microsoft (MSFT) fell nearly -3% after its Azure cloud-computing unit's revenue growth failed to meet expectations [3] - Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) tumbled over -18% after cutting its full-year comparable restaurant sales guidance [3] - C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) soared more than +19% after posting better-than-expected Q3 adjusted EPS and raising its 2026 operating income guidance [3] - Amazon.com (AMZN) jumped over +12% in pre-market trading after posting the strongest growth rate in nearly three years in its cloud unit and issuing solid Q4 revenue guidance [4][18] - Apple (AAPL) rose more than +1% in pre-market trading after reporting better-than-expected FQ4 results and providing an upbeat sales forecast for the holiday quarter [4][18] - Western Digital (WDC) surged more than +10% in pre-market trading after posting upbeat FQ1 results and issuing strong FQ2 guidance [19] Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 31st day, delaying the publication of key economic data including the September core PCE price index and Personal Spending [6] - The Congressional Budget Office stated that the four-week government shutdown will trim real annualized GDP growth by 1 percentage point this quarter [7] - Economists forecast the October Chicago PMI at 42.3, compared to the previous value of 40.6 [6] - Eurozone's October CPI rose +2.1% y/y, in line with expectations, while the Core CPI rose +2.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.3% y/y [12] Market Sentiment - U.S. rate futures have priced in a 68.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting [8] - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.37% amid profit-taking and fresh corporate earnings reports [9] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher, hitting a new record high, supported by strong earnings from domestic companies and a weaker yen [15]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is facing a significant disruption in its inflation data reporting due to government shutdowns, leading to a lack of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the first time in over a century, which complicates economic planning and market operations [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Economic Planning - The absence of timely inflation data hampers household budgeting, corporate planning, and investor decision-making, resulting in a market operating on unreliable information [4]. - Economists and traders are now forced to navigate without the CPI, which has historically been a critical measure of inflation, leading to improvisation in economic assessments [2][3]. Group 2: Market Disruption - The lack of CPI data has led to the emergence of two fallback systems for inflation measurement, which are inconsistent: the U.S. Treasury assumes inflation will continue at the previous year's average, while ISDA has frozen inflation at last October's level of 3.01% [5]. - This discrepancy has created a distorted market environment, with Barclays estimating a breakeven rate of 3.05% for TIPS compared to just 1.78% for inflation swaps, indicating a significant divergence that could disrupt traditional pricing models [6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates, bringing the target range to 4.00-4.25% as of September, amidst concerns over economic slowdown and employment stability [7]. - Despite the Fed's easing measures, inflation has shown signs of re-acceleration, complicating the economic landscape and posing risks to bond real yields and equity valuations [7].