Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the Fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with minimal market reaction, as the S&P 500 closed nearly flat, down 0.01% [1]. Group 1: Economic Assessment by Jerome Powell - Powell indicated that the risks of inflation and unemployment have diminished, although they still persist [4]. - The Fed Chair noted that the labor market is stabilizing, with the unemployment rate around 4.4% in recent months [4]. - Powell suggested that the impact of tariffs has largely been absorbed, although they continue to keep goods inflation above the Fed's 2% target, while services inflation is decreasing [5]. Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Powell expressed optimism regarding the labor market, attributing weak job growth to immigration restrictions affecting both labor supply and demand [6]. - Consumer spending remains strong according to data, despite reports of weak consumer confidence [6]. Group 3: Implications for Investors - Generally, falling interest rates are favorable for stock market investors as they prefer stocks over bonds and benefit from easier borrowing conditions for companies [7]. - However, recessionary conditions often lead to rate cuts, which can negatively impact stock prices [7].

ORLANDO, Florida, Jan 28 (Reuters) - The dollar snapped higher and Wall Street wobbled on Wednesday, but not before the S&P 500 broke above 7,000 points for the first time, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold and flagged rising inflation risks. More on ​that below. In my column today I look at who the most likely candidates are to reduce their exposure to U.S. assets as a 'Sell ‌America' narrative gathers momentum. Countries with big nominal holdings, or countries with outsized exposure ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates between 3.5% to 3.75%, despite external pressure for a cut, citing solid economic expansion [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged follows three rate cuts last year amid pressure from the White House [1] - The Fed noted that job gains have remained low and the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization, while inflation is still somewhat elevated [2] Group 2: Political Context - President Trump is expected to announce a replacement for Fed chair Jerome Powell, who has faced criticism for not cutting rates quickly enough [3] - Christopher Waller, a Fed official who voted for a rate cut, is considered a potential replacement for Powell [4] Group 3: Legal and Investigative Issues - Powell has received subpoenas from the Justice Department related to a criminal investigation concerning his congressional testimony about a $2.5 billion building renovation [5] - The White House previously attempted to remove Fed board member Lisa Cook, alleging mortgage fraud, which she has denied [6] Group 4: Market Reactions and Economic Independence - Economists suggest that Trump's pressure on the Fed may have backfired, as Senate Republicans have shown support for Powell and threatened to block any replacement [7] - Recent weeks have been viewed positively for Fed independence, according to Patricia Zobel from Guggenheim Investments [7]

Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation has significantly reduced the purchasing power of the dollar, with $100 in 2025 equivalent to $12.05 in 1970 [1][4] - Predictions indicate that inflation will be more severe in the coming years compared to previous periods, as suggested by rising gold and silver prices [1][2] Precious Metals Market - Central banks have increased their gold purchases to over 1,000 tonnes annually since 2022, indicating a shift towards gold as a hedge against inflation [2][3] - The U.S. Dollar Index has reached its lowest level in four years, reflecting concerns about the dollar's stability [2] Economic Crisis Predictions - An impending economic crisis in the U.S. is anticipated to be more severe than the 2008 financial crisis, primarily affecting the domestic economy [4] - Schiff emphasizes that the current economic structure is unsustainable, predicting a collapse of the dollar and a transition to gold-backed currencies [3] Investment Opportunities in Gold - Schiff does not provide a specific price target for gold but suggests it could rise significantly due to the lack of a floor on the dollar [6] - Notable figures, including JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, have suggested that gold could reach $10,000 per ounce in the current economic environment [6] Mining Stocks Performance - Precious metals mining stocks, such as Agnico Eagle Mines and Pan American Silver, have seen substantial gains of approximately 161% and 206% respectively, yet Schiff believes they still hold value [9][10] - Schiff identifies Franco-Nevada as a high-quality gold stock and suggests that junior mining companies may experience significant growth [11][12] Alternative Investment Strategies - The article discusses the potential of real estate as a hedge against inflation, with property values and rental income typically rising during inflationary periods [14][15] - Art as an investment is highlighted as a scarce asset class that has outperformed the S&P 500, providing a unique opportunity for diversification [20][21]

Speaking on Wednesday, Mr Powell said that the court battle “is perhaps the most important legal case in the Fed’s 113-year history”.The investigation into Mr Powell comes after Mr Trump tried to sack Fed governor Lisa Cook over unproven allegations of mortgage fraud, a move that she is contesting in the Supreme Court.“This is the route by which inflation creeps up gradually, and then you find yourself with a problem which only a deep recession can solve.”“I do think that the current situation is a challeng ...

Core Viewpoint - DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates for the remainder of Jerome Powell's term, reflecting a more balanced economic outlook [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve has kept its overnight lending rate steady at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace [3]. - Powell noted that the unemployment rate is stabilizing and that the current policy is not significantly restrictive [3]. Group 2: Future Expectations - Gundlach predicts that there will not be another rate cut under Powell, emphasizing that inflation is elevated but not as concerning as previously feared [2]. - Fed funds futures trading indicates expectations of two quarter percentage point cuts by the end of 2026, according to the CME FedWatch Tool [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Gundlach recommends that investors consider allocating 30% to 40% of their portfolios to unhedged international equities, which could benefit from local currency gains against the U.S. dollar [4].

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock indexes experienced choppy trading, ending the day mixed with the S&P 500 down 0.57 points to 6,978.03, the Dow up 12.19 points to 49,015.60, and the Nasdaq rising 40.35 points to 23,857.45 [1] - The Federal Reserve announced its decision to keep interest rates unchanged at a target range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent after three consecutive quarter-point cuts [2] - The decision to maintain rates was not unanimous, with two Fed Governors advocating for a further quarter-point cut [2][4] Economic Outlook - The Fed's decision was influenced by elevated uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, emphasizing the dual mandate of maximum employment and maintaining inflation at 2 percent over the long term [3] - A majority of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to favor a pause in rate cuts unless the job market weakens further, with inflation remaining a concern [4] Sector Performance - Gold stocks surged, with the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index increasing by 2.7 percent to a new record closing high, driven by rising gold prices [5] - The NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index rose by 2.6 percent, also reaching a new record closing high, largely due to a 19.1 percent increase in Seagate Technology's shares following better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results [6] - Semiconductor and networking stocks showed considerable strength, while oil service, pharmaceutical, and biotechnology stocks experienced significant declines [7] International Markets - In the Asia-Pacific region, stock markets mostly moved higher, with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index up 0.1 percent, South Korea's Kospi up 1.7 percent, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index up 2.6 percent [7] - Conversely, major European markets declined, with the French CAC 40 Index down 1.1 percent, the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index down 0.5 percent, and the German DAX Index down 0.3 percent [8] Bond Market - Treasuries saw a decline in prices following the Fed announcement, leading to a rise in the yield on the benchmark ten-year note by 2.8 basis points to 4.251 percent [9] Upcoming Events - Trading on Thursday may be influenced by earnings reports from major tech companies including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla [9]

You talked about how consumer spending is uneven. The president calls inflation defeated and solved. The FOMC says it's a somewhat elevated inflation, but you talked about those customer survey or those some consumer sentiment surveys and public opinion polls that show that most families say the cost of living is still issue number one.What is the conversation around the table with your colleagues about how wealthier consumers seem to be driving so much of the economy and why so many families still feel lik ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently holding interest rates steady amid various economic pressures and uncertainties, with expectations of potential rate cuts in 2026, but the timing and extent of these cuts remain uncertain due to mixed economic signals and political influences [1][2][5]. Economic Conditions - The job market is showing signs of weakness, with hiring at its lowest since 2013, despite a current unemployment rate of 4.4% [3][19]. - Inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2%, complicating the decision-making process for rate cuts [5][21]. - The Fed is expected to maintain a restrictive policy to help bring inflation down, with policymakers looking for clear evidence of economic improvement before making any cuts [4][21]. Interest Rate Forecast - Bankrate's annual forecast predicts three cuts totaling 0.75 percentage points in 2026, while investors anticipate two cuts starting in June 2026 [1][10]. - Mortgage rates are projected to fluctuate between 5.7% and 6.5% in 2026, with current averages at 6.25% for 30-year fixed mortgages [9][10]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market is not as robust as desired, with only 584,000 jobs added last year, the lowest since 2003 outside of a recession [19][20]. - Economists predict the unemployment rate may rise to 4.5% by the end of 2026, with an average of 64,500 jobs added monthly [20]. Market Reactions - The stock market is experiencing a rally, with the S&P 500 reaching record highs, but volatility remains a concern for long-term investors [16][17]. - The Fed's decisions on interest rates are closely watched as they impact borrowing costs and overall economic sentiment [5][18].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, focusing on employment, inflation, and economic growth. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth**: The U.S. economy expanded at a solid pace, with consumer spending remaining resilient and business fixed investment continuing to grow. However, the housing sector has shown weakness [2][3]. - **Labor Market**: The unemployment rate was stable at 4.4%, with job gains averaging 22,000 per month in non-farm payrolls. Private payrolls increased by an average of 29,000 per month, indicating some stabilization in the labor market [2][3][10]. - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation has eased from its mid-2022 highs but remains elevated. The total PCE prices rose by 2.9% over the past year, while core PCE prices increased by 3.0%. The elevated inflation is largely attributed to the goods sector, influenced by tariffs, while disinflation is observed in the services sector [3][4][39]. - **Monetary Policy Stance**: The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%. This decision follows a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points over the previous three meetings, aimed at stabilizing the labor market and guiding inflation towards the 2% target [4][5]. - **Future Rate Adjustments**: The Fed is positioned to adjust the policy rate based on incoming data and evolving economic conditions. The committee emphasized a meeting-by-meeting approach to decision-making [5][27]. - **Tariff Impact**: The effects of tariffs on goods prices are expected to peak and then decline, contributing to a one-time price increase rather than ongoing inflation. The Fed anticipates that as tariff effects diminish, it may allow for policy loosening [39][81]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Sentiment**: There is a disconnect between consumer sentiment surveys, which indicate negative perceptions of the economy, and actual consumer spending data, which remains strong [70][75]. - **AI and Labor Market**: The impact of AI on the labor market is being closely monitored, with concerns that it may supplant entry-level jobs. However, technological advancements are also expected to increase productivity over time [76][77]. - **Fiscal Policy Concerns**: The U.S. federal budget deficit is on an unsustainable path, which could pose long-term risks to the economy. The Fed emphasizes the need for addressing fiscal challenges [57][58]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical risks, particularly related to energy prices, are acknowledged, but the current economic outlook remains stable despite global uncertainties [85][86]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the U.S. economy, labor market dynamics, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy approach.