2025年3月11日 CMB国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 Leapmotor (9863 HK) 竞争性定价 B10 在2024年第四季度实现强劲的 利润率。 Leapmotor 推出了其 B10 3月10日的EV发布，预售价范围在人民币109,800-1 39,800。具备激光雷达和城市NOA功能型号的价格低至人民币129,800。我们 认为这样的价格具有竞争力。考虑到Leapmotor利用Qualcomm 8650芯片进行 自主研发的自动驾驶，我们认为许多投资者仍然低估了Leapmotor的研发能力 。因此，我们将其在FY25E年的B系列销量上调25,000单位。我们还将其在FY2 5E年的总销量上调30,000单位至0.48mn单位。 在FY25E实现可能的盈亏平衡，得益于规模经济的扩大和强劲的2024年第 四季度利润率。 Leapmotor的2024年第四季度毛利率环比上升5.2个百分点至1 3.3%，符合其盈利预警。其2024年第四季度收入环比增长37%至人民币135亿 元，净利润为人民币8100万元，甚至强于预期。 我们之前的预测 我们预计， 凭借Leap 3.5架构在降低成本方面的帮 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Leapmotor, indicating potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][16]. Core Views - Leapmotor's competitive pricing for the new B10 EV and strong margins in 4Q24 enhance confidence in sales performance. The FY25E sales volume is revised up by 7% to 0.48 million units, with expectations of a minimal net loss in FY25E and a net profit of RMB1.26 billion in FY26E [1][6]. - The company's in-house autonomous driving and chassis capabilities are seen as undervalued, potentially leading to better-than-expected gross profit margins for the B series [1][6]. - The investor day on March 11 is anticipated to showcase technologies that could positively impact share price [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show significant growth, with FY24E at RMB32.16 billion, FY25E at RMB51.02 billion, and FY26E at RMB57.54 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 92.1%, 58.6%, and 12.8% respectively [2][11]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 8.4% in FY24E to 11.2% in FY25E and 12.3% in FY26E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][11]. - Net profit is projected to transition from a loss of RMB98 million in FY25E to a profit of RMB1.26 billion in FY26E, showcasing a significant turnaround [2][11]. Sales and Market Performance - Leapmotor's B10 EV was launched with a competitive pre-sale price range of RMB109,800-139,800, with the model featuring LiDAR priced as low as RMB129,800 [1][6]. - The company reported a 37% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase in 4Q24, reaching RMB13.5 billion, with a net profit of RMB81 million, exceeding previous forecasts [1][6]. - The gross margin for 4Q24 rose to 13.3%, up 5.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved operational efficiency [1][6]. Valuation - The target price for Leapmotor has been raised from HK$40.00 to HK$50.00, based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.2x for FY25E, aligning with the average for Chinese new energy vehicle start-ups [3][6]. - Current market capitalization stands at HK$55.48 billion, with a current share price of HK$41.50, indicating a potential upside of 20.5% [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent correction in the Nasdaq Composite presents a buying opportunity for quality stocks, specifically Alphabet and Microsoft, which are now more attractively priced than earlier in the year [1]. Group 1: Alphabet - Alphabet's shares are down approximately 20% from their all-time highs in early February, resulting in a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.5, indicating an attractive valuation [2]. - The company is a leader in digital advertising, with Google being the largest platform globally and YouTube ranking fourth [3]. - Alphabet is heavily investing in artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance search results and create new ad formats, which could significantly increase monetization opportunities [4]. - The Gemini 2.0 model is improving Alphabet's capabilities in multimodal search, and its Veo 2 text-to-image video generator is outperforming competitors [5]. - Google Cloud, Alphabet's cloud computing division, reported a 30% revenue growth and a 142% increase in segment income last quarter, indicating a profitability inflection point [6]. - Alphabet is also advancing in quantum computing and autonomous driving, with its Waymo unit being the only provider of paid robotaxi rides in the U.S. [7]. Group 2: Microsoft - Microsoft, known for its Office 365 productivity tools, also owns the second-largest cloud computing business and operates various platforms including LinkedIn and GitHub [8]. - The company has successfully transitioned to a subscription model for its software, driving growth and embracing AI through significant investments in OpenAI [9]. - Azure, Microsoft's cloud computing unit, experienced a 31% revenue growth last quarter, with Azure AI revenue soaring 157% year over year [10]. - Microsoft 365 AI copilots are a significant growth opportunity, offering AI assistance to users for various tasks, which could lead to high adoption rates if proven effective [11][12]. - Following the market pullback, Microsoft's stock trades at a forward P/E of 25 based on fiscal year 2026 estimates, presenting a reasonable valuation for a leading tech company [13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modest fiscal expansion with a focus on technology and consumption, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook for the industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The fiscal package includes a Rmb2 trillion expansion, with a significant portion aimed at supporting technology innovation and consumption, although the latter remains modest [2][4]. - The emphasis on accelerating AI adoption and autonomous driving reflects a strategic pivot towards tech innovation, which may stimulate market activity [3][4]. - The report highlights a gradual approach to debt restructuring, focusing on economic development rather than just debt reduction, which may impact the property and stock markets positively [5]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy - The augmented fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected to expand by Rmb2 trillion, increasing the budget deficit from 3% to 4% of GDP [2]. - Key components of the fiscal package include a Rmb300 billion increase in long-term treasury bonds and a Rmb500 billion increase in local government special bonds [2][8]. Technology Focus - The government aims to bolster tech innovation by enhancing the market ecosystem and supporting AI applications and intelligent terminals [3][8]. - There is a commitment to promote the healthy development of the platform economy to stabilize the job market and boost consumption [3]. Consumption Support - Within the Rmb2 trillion stimulus, approximately 25% is allocated to consumption-related initiatives, including a Rmb300 billion trade-in program and wage hikes for civil servants [4]. - The report notes that while there are pledges to improve access to public services for migrant workers and enhance healthcare and elderly care, the specifics remain vague [4]. Debt Restructuring - The focus on local government debt resolution is shifting towards economic development, with an emphasis on preventing debt defaults by property developers [5]. - The report suggests that structural monetary policy tools will be utilized to support the property and stock markets, although details on implementation are still lacking [5].

Core Insights - Baidu, Inc. has experienced a 12.6% increase in shares over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's growth of 9.3, as it transitions from an Internet-centric business to an AI-focused technology leader [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Baidu's total revenues slightly declined by 2% year-over-year to RMB34.1 billion ($4.68 billion), while Baidu Core revenues increased by 1% to RMB27.7 billion ($3.8 billion) [2] - The AI Cloud business showed significant growth, achieving a 26% year-over-year increase in Q4 2024, which helped mitigate a 7% decline in the traditional online marketing business [3] Strategic Developments - Baidu's ERNIE foundation model handled approximately 1.65 billion API calls daily in December 2024, with external API calls growing by 178% quarter-over-quarter [6] - The company plans to open-source its upcoming ERNIE 4.5 series and make ERNIE Bot free for users to enhance market awareness and adoption [7] - AI-enabled features in Baidu Wenku reached 94 million monthly active users in December 2024, marking a 216% year-over-year increase [8] Autonomous Driving Initiatives - Baidu's Apollo Go service provided over 1.1 million rides in Q4 2024, a 36% increase year-over-year, and surpassed nine million total rides in January 2025 [9] - The company has secured permits for autonomous driving testing in Hong Kong, expanding its market presence [10] Competitive Landscape - Baidu faces competition in the AI cloud market from Alibaba and Tencent, which have strong enterprise relationships and financial resources [11] - The autonomous driving sector is becoming increasingly competitive with emerging players like Xpeng and WeRide [11] Valuation Metrics - Baidu's current forward 12-month P/S ratio is 1.65x, significantly lower than the Zacks Internet - Services industry average of 5.57x, indicating a discounted valuation [12] Financial Position - As of December 31, 2024, Baidu held RMB139.1 billion ($19.06 billion) in cash and equivalents, and has repurchased over $1 billion in shares since the beginning of 2024 [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 revenues is $18.73 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1.31%, while earnings estimates have increased by 3.9% over the past 30 days [16] Future Outlook - Baidu is positioned to benefit from continued AI adoption and autonomous driving expansion, with expectations for gradual improvement in its advertising business and strong momentum in the AI Cloud sector [19] - The current stock price may represent an attractive entry point for long-term investors, given the company's technology leadership and strategic focus on high-growth areas [20]

These two companies could be big winners in the autonomous driving race.Artificial intelligence (AI) is undoubtedly one of the biggest trends of our generation, and it will disrupt almost everything that we know.One industry that will likely see the transformative impact as a result of AI is the transport industry, thanks to the rise of autonomous vehicles, autonomous public transportation, etc. There are two companies well-positioned to ride the growth of the autonomous ride-hailing industry: Uber Technolo ...

Core Insights - China's technology sector is experiencing significant advancements, with major companies like Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, and PDD Holdings leading the charge in AI and emerging technologies [2][8] Group 1: Technological Advancements - DeepSeek, an AI startup, is at the forefront of China's tech revolution, recently launching its R2 model, which enhances coding capabilities and multilingual reasoning [3] - China's semiconductor industry holds over 25% of the global market share in semiconductor packaging and more than 50% in advanced packaging, leveraging technologies like 2.5D/3D stacking [4] - Robotics innovations were showcased at CES 2025, with Unitree Robotics presenting humanoid and quadrupedal robots, highlighting China's rapid progress in this field [5] - Electric vehicle technology is advancing, with companies like Zeekr and Great Wall Motor displaying innovative models, supported by suppliers like Hesai, whose lidar units have dropped in price from $80,000 in 2017 to around $200 in 2025 [6] - Augmented reality is gaining traction, with companies like Xreal and Rokid presenting advanced AR glasses and eyewear, reflecting China's comprehensive approach to technological innovation [7] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Tencent has launched its Hunyuan Turbo S model, which delivers responses within a second, significantly outperforming competitors and matching capabilities of DeepSeek's models [10][11] - Alibaba is investing $53 billion in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years, positioning itself as a leader in AI with the upcoming release of its QwQ-Max-Preview model [14][15] - Baidu is focusing on autonomous driving through a partnership with CATL to develop competitive driverless vehicles and plans to launch its upgraded Ernie 4.5 AI model [16][17][18]

China's technology landscape in 2025 showcases remarkable advancements across multiple sectors, with the nation steadily positioning itself as a global technology powerhouse. Tech giants, including Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) , Alibaba (BABA) , Baidu (BIDU) , JD.com (JD) and PDD Holdings (PDD) , are making waves to capitalize on this technological renaissance, strategically investing in AI infrastructure and emerging technologies to strengthen China's digital ecosystem.At the forefront of this technological re ...

Core Insights - The autonomous vehicle industry is rapidly advancing, with Waymo's robotaxis achieving significant milestones, including 5 million rides and over 25 million miles driven, and plans for expansion into new cities by 2025 [1] - Mobileye Global is a key player in the autonomous driving sector, providing advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and a comprehensive Mobileye Drive platform [2] - Lyft plans to introduce Mobileye-powered robotaxis in Dallas by 2026, with intentions to scale across multiple cities [4] - Luminar Technologies advocates for LiDAR technology in autonomous vehicles, despite facing cash burn and competition from Mobileye's imaging radar [7][8] - Aptiv, through its joint venture Motional, is testing Level 4 autonomous driving technology and has secured significant new business bookings [12][13] Group 1: Industry Developments - The age of autonomous vehicles is approaching, with increasing adoption of robotaxis and regulatory support from the new administration [1] - Waymo's success has revived interest in the robotaxi market, attracting potential partners and operators [5] Group 2: Key Companies - Mobileye Global is recognized for its advanced driver assistance systems and the Mobileye Drive platform, which utilizes a combination of cameras and AI technology [2][3] - Luminar Technologies emphasizes the advantages of its LiDAR technology, claiming superior range and precision compared to camera-based systems [8][9] - Aptiv's partnership with Hyundai in the Motional venture is focused on developing Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities, with significant operational milestones achieved [11][12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, Innoviz recorded full-year revenues of $24.3 million, an increase from $20.1 million in 2023, exceeding the midpoint of guidance [5][43] - Cash used in operations and capital expenditures decreased to $81.4 million from $99.6 million in 2023 [5] - The company ended 2024 with $68 million in cash and cash equivalents [6][40] - Gross profit was generated for the first time in Q4 2024, with expectations for positive gross margins for the full year of 2025 [42][36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company announced a multi-year $80 million NRE payment plan with key customers, with over $40 million expected in 2025 [10][14] - NRE bookings for 2024 were in line with expectations, and the company anticipates $20 million to $50 million in additional NRE bookings for 2025 [11][36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Innoviz is expanding its production capacity significantly in 2025 to meet future customer demands [8] - The partnership with Mobileye has led to programs with several new OEMs, indicating a strong market position [8][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Innoviz plans to explore opportunities outside the automotive industry while maintaining a focus on automotive applications [9][34] - The company aims to become the leading Tier 1 automotive LiDAR supplier, leveraging its superior technology and strengthened balance sheet [49] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving long-term goals and reaching profitability by the end of the decade [16] - The company expects a more than twofold increase in revenues year-over-year for 2025, driven by NRE payments and LiDAR sales [36][35] Other Important Information - The company has optimized operations to deliver approximately $12 million in annual savings [7][15] - Innoviz is actively engaging with multiple OEMs on RFIs and RFQs across various platforms, indicating a robust pipeline of opportunities [31][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on potential nomination with top auto OEM - Innoviz has passed legal discussions and is awaiting final alignment from the customer [53] Question: Expectations for free cash flow and cash burn reduction - The company expects to continue reducing cash burn, with NREs contributing positively [55] Question: Insights on potential tariff implications - Currently, there is no impact from tariffs, and interest in the U.S. market is increasing due to Innoviz's geopolitical neutrality [64] Question: Data insights on LiDAR's role in driving decisions - LiDAR plays a significant role in complex driving scenarios, with some customers reporting over 90% reliance on LiDAR for decision-making [68] Question: Clarification on NRE bookings - NREs are paid by customers for development support before production ramp-up, with payments tied to milestones [76][78] Question: Milestones for VW ID Buzz program - Innoviz is approaching the C-sample stage, which is critical for production validation [98][100] Question: Update on BMW China platform - BMW's Level 3 platform is awaiting approval, and Innoviz's LiDAR provides a substantial quality advantage for Level 3 and Level 4 systems [110][112]