The market expects RLI Corp. (RLI) to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 21, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than e ...

The market expects Washington Trust Bancorp (WASH) to deliver flat earnings compared to the year-ago quarter on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 21, might help the stock move higher if these key ...

Core Viewpoint - BOK Financial (BOKF) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to be released on July 21, and if the results exceed expectations, the stock may rise; conversely, a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus estimate for BOK Financial's quarterly earnings is $1.98 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 2%, while revenues are projected to be $517.95 million, an increase of 4.4% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.96%, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for BOK Financial is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.17%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate, with a positive reading being a strong predictor of an earnings beat [9][10]. - BOK Financial currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat given the negative Earnings ESP [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, BOK Financial was expected to post earnings of $2.01 per share but delivered only $1.86, resulting in a surprise of -7.46% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Industry Comparison - Private Bancorp of America, Inc. (PBAM), another player in the Zacks Banks - Southwest industry, is expected to report earnings of $1.79 per share for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year increase of 32.6% [18]. - PBAM's revenues are projected to be $30.5 million, up 16.4% from the previous year, but it also has a negative Earnings ESP of -2.79% despite a Zacks Rank of 2 [19][20].

Core Insights - The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) is anticipated to show improvements in both revenue and earnings for the second quarter of 2025, with revenue expected to reach $12.20 billion, reflecting a 7.5% growth year-over-year [1] - The earnings consensus estimate is $3.49 per share, indicating a 39% increase from the previous year, despite a slight downward revision of 0.8% in the last 30 days [2][3] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TRV's second-quarter revenues is $12.20 billion, which is a 7.5% increase from the prior year [1] - The earnings estimate is $3.49 per share, with a year-over-year increase of 39% [2] Earnings Prediction Model - The earnings prediction model indicates a potential earnings beat for Travelers, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +8.76% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [2][3] Segment Performance - All three segments are expected to perform well, with premiums projected to increase by 7.2% to $10.9 billion, driven by better pricing and strong retention [4] - The Personal Insurance segment is estimated to generate $4.4 billion in premiums, reflecting an 8.3% improvement year-over-year [6] - The Bond & Specialty Insurance segment is expected to reach $1 billion in premiums, indicating a 12.1% increase from the previous year [7] - The Business Insurance segment is projected to generate $5.4 billion in premiums, a 5.4% increase year-over-year [9] Investment Income - Net investment income is estimated to be approximately $725 million for the second quarter, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $945 million, representing a 6.8% increase from the prior year [5][8] Underwriting Profitability - Improved pricing and prudent underwriting practices are expected to enhance underwriting profitability, with the combined ratio estimated at 105.5 [10] Expense Outlook - Total expenses are anticipated to rise by 6.4% to $11.4 billion, influenced by higher claims and administrative costs [11]

Core Viewpoint - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on July 16, with sales and earnings estimates of $22.79 billion and $2.66 per share respectively. The earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have seen slight increases over the past month [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - JNJ has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 5.71%. The most recent quarter showed a surprise of 7.78% [3][4]. - The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.40% and a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a strong likelihood of a positive earnings surprise [4]. Group 2: Sales Drivers and Challenges - Sales in JNJ's Innovative Medicines segment are expected to be driven by key products like Darzalex, Tremfya, and Erleada, with projected sales of $3.45 billion, $1.08 billion, and $903.9 million respectively [6][7]. - The sales of Stelara are anticipated to decline due to biosimilar competition, with estimates pegged at $1.88 billion [8][9]. - The MedTech segment faces challenges in China due to a volume-based procurement program, but growth is expected from newly acquired businesses like Abiomed and Shockwave [12][13]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - JNJ's acquisition of Intra-Cellular Therapies for approximately $14.6 billion enhances its presence in the neurological and psychiatric drug market [24]. - The company is navigating significant headwinds, including the impact of the Stelara patent cliff and ongoing legal battles related to talc lawsuits [25][24]. Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - JNJ's stock has risen 10.3% this year, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500, with a current price/earnings ratio of 14.42, slightly below the industry average [16][19]. - The company is viewed as reasonably valued, with expectations for operational sales growth to accelerate in the second half of 2025 and beyond [27][19].

Core Viewpoint - ASML Holding N.V. is expected to report strong second-quarter 2025 results, potentially exceeding market expectations with projected revenues between €7.2 billion and €7.7 billion, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $8.55 billion, reflecting a 27.2% year-over-year increase [1][8]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $5.94 per share, which is a 37.5% increase from the previous year's earnings of $4.32. This estimate has been revised upward by 14 cents in the last 30 days [2][3]. - ASML has a history of earnings surprises, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average beat of 6.8% [3]. Earnings Prediction - The Earnings ESP for ASML is +2.82%, indicating a likelihood of an earnings beat this season [5]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), which suggests a stable outlook [5]. Industry Context - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a resurgence driven by high demand and advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), benefiting ASML particularly in the wafer fabrication equipment market [6][8]. - ASML is positioned at the forefront of technological innovation, capitalizing on the industry's shift towards smaller, advanced technology nodes essential for AI, 5G, and high-performance computing [7]. Market Demand - Demand for ASML's lithography tools is increasing in both logic and memory markets, with a notable transition to next-generation memory technologies like DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) [8][9]. - The company's heavy investments in Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) technology are yielding positive results, with rising demand for EUV-related services [10]. Challenges - Despite strong demand, macroeconomic challenges, including U.S.-China trade tensions and export restrictions on advanced semiconductors to China, pose risks to ASML's performance [11][20]. - However, demand for Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems from Chinese chipmakers may partially mitigate the impact of these restrictions [11]. Stock Performance - ASML shares have increased by 15.7% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's growth of 7.4% [12]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 27.7X, slightly above the sector average of 27.39X [14]. Investment Thesis - ASML holds a unique position in the chip equipment market as the sole producer of EUV lithography machines at scale, crucial for manufacturing advanced chips [18]. - The company is advancing its next-generation High-NA EUV machines, which are essential for producing smaller chips, aligning with the growing demand for efficient chips driven by AI [19]. Conclusion - ASML's dominance in EUV technology and solid revenue visibility position it well for future growth, although export restrictions and high valuation multiples suggest a cautious investment approach [21].

Core Insights - Allegheny Technologies (ATI) has consistently beaten earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters with an average surprise of 27.90% [1] - The company reported earnings of $0.72 per share against a consensus estimate of $0.58, resulting in a surprise of 24.14% for the last quarter [2] - For the previous quarter, ATI's earnings were $0.79 per share compared to an expected $0.60, delivering a surprise of 31.67% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Allegheny Technologies have been increasing, indicating positive sentiment among analysts [5] - The Zacks Earnings ESP for the company is currently positive at +3.38%, suggesting a strong potential for an earnings beat [8] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6] Zacks Rank and Earnings Release - Allegheny Technologies holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), which, combined with its positive Earnings ESP, indicates a high likelihood of another earnings beat [8] - The next earnings report for the company is anticipated to be released on July 31, 2025 [8]

Core Insights - Certara, Inc. is positioned to potentially continue its earnings-beat streak in the upcoming report, having surpassed earnings estimates by an average of 11.54% in the last two quarters [1][2]. Earnings Performance - In the last reported quarter, Certara achieved earnings of $0.14 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.13 per share, resulting in a surprise of 7.69% [2]. - In the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $0.13 per share but delivered $0.15 per share, leading to a surprise of 15.38% [2]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Certara have been trending upward, with a positive Earnings ESP of +2.44%, indicating increased analyst optimism regarding the company's earnings prospects [5][8]. - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat, with historical data showing that stocks with this combination beat estimates nearly 70% of the time [6][8]. Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions, which may be more accurate [7]. - A negative Earnings ESP can reduce the predictive power of the metric, but it does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss [9]. Importance of Earnings ESP - Many companies beat consensus EPS estimates, but this is not the sole reason for share price gains; thus, checking a company's Earnings ESP before quarterly releases is crucial for investment decisions [10].

Core Viewpoint - Citizens Financial Group (CFG) is well-positioned to continue its earnings-beat streak in the upcoming report, supported by a positive earnings surprise history and favorable analyst estimates [1][5]. Earnings Performance - For the last reported quarter, Citizens Financial Group achieved earnings of $0.77 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.75 per share, resulting in a surprise of 2.67% [2]. - In the previous quarter, the company reported earnings of $0.85 per share against an expected $0.83 per share, delivering a surprise of 2.41% [2]. Earnings Estimates - Recent estimates for Citizens Financial Group have been trending upward, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [5][8]. - The current Earnings ESP for the company stands at +1.55%, reflecting increased analyst optimism regarding its near-term earnings potential [8]. Zacks Rank and Predictive Power - The stock holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), which, when combined with a positive Earnings ESP, suggests a high probability of beating consensus estimates, with historical data indicating nearly 70% success in such cases [6][8]. - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate being more reflective of recent analyst revisions [7].

Core Viewpoint - Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) is positioned well to potentially beat earnings estimates in its upcoming quarterly report, supported by a history of positive earnings surprises [1][5]. Earnings Performance - For the last reported quarter, Commerce Bancshares achieved earnings of $0.98 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.93 per share, resulting in a surprise of 5.38% [2]. - In the previous quarter, the company reported earnings of $1.01 per share against an expected $0.94 per share, delivering a surprise of 7.45% [2]. Earnings Estimates - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Commerce Bancshares, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating potential for an earnings beat [5][8]. - The current Earnings ESP for Commerce is +1.79%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about its near-term earnings potential [8]. Predictive Metrics - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6]. - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7].