#报告 TS Lombard：美元指数的反弹有持续的趋势。None (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) depreciated against the US dollar (USD) due to disappointing employment data, with the latest exchange rate at 0.6496, reflecting a decline of 0.20% [1] - Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, the highest since November 2021, exceeding expectations of 4.3%, indicating a loosening labor market [1] - The number of employed persons increased by 14,900 in September, which was below the forecasted increase of 20,000 [1] Group 2 - The three-year government bond yields, sensitive to policy changes, fell by 9 basis points following the employment data release [1] - The AUD/USD exchange rate experienced a drop of up to 0.49% during the day, reaching 0.6479 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to consider interest rate cuts as a response to the labor market data [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a short-term oversold condition [2] - Support levels for the AUD are identified at 0.6440 and 0.6415, while resistance levels are at 0.6520 and 0.6530 [2]

与此同时，美元指数在98至99关口之间震荡，截至9时30分，报98.4999。 工银亚洲研究研报中表示，往后看，短期内美元指数对美联储降息定价较为充分，叠加美国经济维持韧 性，政府"停摆"、日元走弱等因素阶段抬升避险情绪，美元指数料不改中枢下行趋势但阶段有走升空 间。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 黄冰玉）10月16日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘小幅上涨，报 7.1206，前一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1238。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.12610。 同日，人民币对美元中间价7.0968，较前一日上调27个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index decreased by 0.39% to 98.67, indicating a strengthening of non-US currencies against the dollar [1] Currency Movements - The euro appreciated by 0.33% against the dollar, reaching 1.1647 [1] - The British pound rose by 0.61% to 1.3402 against the dollar [1] - The Australian dollar increased by 0.41% to 0.6513 against the dollar [1] - The Japanese yen weakened, with the dollar rising by 0.49% to 151.0630 [1] - The Canadian dollar saw a slight decline, with the dollar decreasing by 0.04% to 1.4038 [1] - The Swiss franc also depreciated, with the dollar up by 0.52% to 0.7968 [1]

结合近期人民币汇率表现，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青向北京商报记者解释了原因。王青指出，10月 15日人民币汇率中间价突破7.10关口，直接原因是隔夜美元下行；另一方面，近期外部波动加大，也需 要相应增强稳汇市的力度，这有助于稳定市场信心。整体上看，近期在美元指数震荡上行、全球汇市波 动加大过程中，人民币中间价向偏强方向调整力度有所加大。 同日，在岸人民币、离岸人民币对美元汇率双双升值。截至当日17时45分，在岸人民币对美元报 7.1267，日内升值幅度为0.17%；离岸人民币对美元报7.1301，日内升值幅度为0.14%。2025年以来，在 岸人民币、离岸人民币对美元汇率升值幅度均超过2%，分别为2.37%、2.82%。 三大人民币汇率报价全线升值的同时，美元指数跌至99下方。截至10月15日17时45分，美元指数报 98.8482，日内下跌幅度为0.21%。在经历了2025年上半年的连续下跌后，近期美元指数多集中在100下 方波动，年内最低在9月跌至96.2179。2025年10月以来，美元指数升值幅度为1%，但年内整体贬值幅 度仍然接近9%。 三大人民币汇率报价全线升值，人民币汇率中间价再创阶段性高点。1 ...

10月15日，人民币兑美元中间价小幅上调26点至7.0995元，创2024年11月6日以来新高。 人民币汇率中间价调升受内外因素共振驱动。整体上看，近期在全球汇市波动加大过程中，人民币中间 价向偏强方向调整的力度有所加大。 美联储主席释放降息信号，美元指数失守关键点位 从近期人民币汇率变动情况来看，美元兑人民币汇率多数时间跟随美元指数走势，但在贬值压力增加时 则颇有韧性。近期人民币升值最直接的推力来自美元的走弱。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青告诉新京报贝壳财经记者，10月15日，人民币汇率中间价上调的直接原因 是隔夜美元指数的下行。 10月14日晚间，美联储主席鲍威尔在公开讲话中，重申了美国就业市场面临"相当大"的下行风险，这一 表态巩固了市场对美联储本月将继续降息的预期。他还表示，美联储未来几个月可能会停止缩减资产负 债表。 鲍威尔释放的信号加重了美元的压力，美元随后震荡走软，当天美元指数下跌0.23%。9月以来，美元 指数呈现震荡下行的走势特征，指数中枢延续趋势性回落态势。 中国银行研究院研究员吴丹对新京报贝壳财经记者表示，中美贸易争端升级引发市场情绪波动，美元指 数承压。叠加美联储降息预期升温、特朗普政府 ...

从近期人民币汇率变动情况来看，美元兑人民币汇率多数时间跟随美元指数走势，但在贬值压力增加时 则颇有韧性。近期人民币升值最直接的推力来自美元的走弱。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青告诉新京报贝壳财经记者，10月15日，人民币汇率中间价上调的直接原因 是隔夜美元指数的下行。 10月14日晚间，美联储主席鲍威尔在公开讲话中，重申了美国就业市场面临"相当大"的下行风险，这一 表态巩固了市场对美联储本月将继续降息的预期。他还表示，美联储未来几个月可能会停止缩减资产负 债表。 鲍威尔释放的信号加重了美元的压力，美元随后震荡走软，当天美元指数下跌0.23%。9月以来，美元 指数呈现震荡下行的走势特征，指数中枢延续趋势性回落态势。 10月15日，人民币兑美元中间价小幅上调26点至7.0995元，创2024年11月6日以来新高。 人民币汇率中间价调升受内外因素共振驱动。整体上看，近期在全球汇市波动加大过程中，人民币中间 价向偏强方向调整的力度有所加大。 美联储主席释放降息信号，美元指数失守关键点位 中国银行研究院研究员吴丹对新京报贝壳财经记者表示，中美贸易争端升级引发市场情绪波动，美元指 数承压。叠加美联储降息预期升温、特朗普政府 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) signals a strong stabilization, with the central parity rate rising above 7.10 for the first time since late October of the previous year, indicating a potential new round of RMB appreciation [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - On October 15, the RMB central parity rate was reported at 7.0995, an increase of 26 points from the previous day, marking a significant upward movement [1]. - The offshore RMB against the US dollar saw a sharp increase, rising approximately 200 points within the day, while the onshore RMB remained stable around 7.12 [2]. - Key indicators reflecting domestic dollar liquidity, such as the year-on-year growth rate of foreign exchange deposits in domestic financial institutions, have surpassed the threshold of 6%-10%, suggesting the RMB is entering an appreciation cycle [2]. Group 2: Supportive Factors for RMB Stability - Multiple factors are expected to support the RMB's stability and potential appreciation, including the acceleration of new policy financial tools worth 500 billion yuan, which will help stabilize economic operations [3]. - The overall market expectations for the RMB remain stable, with a notable convergence of the central parity rate and onshore spot rates, indicating a reduction in divergence and a stable market outlook [4]. Group 3: USD Index Trends - The USD index has rebounded over 3% since the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on September 18, reaching a two-month high, driven by global uncertainties that enhance its safe-haven appeal [5]. - Analysts suggest that the recent strength of the USD index is largely a result of weakness in other currencies, particularly the euro and yen, influenced by domestic issues in Europe and expectations of monetary easing in Japan [5]. - Despite the current strength of the USD index, experts express concerns about its long-term outlook, citing risks associated with the prolonged government shutdown and potential impacts on economic data [6].

周三（10月15日）亚洲时段，美元延续下滑跌破99关口，最新美元指数报98.933，跌幅0.11%，周二 （10月14日）晚间美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔释放信号称，10月降息仍在考虑之中，量化紧缩政策也可 能接近尾声，美元随后震荡走软，美元指数险守99关口上方，最终收跌0.21%，报99.05。 美国政府停摆导致美联储制定货币政策所依赖的关键经济数据中断发布，这也意味着市场失去了预判美 联储动向的常规工具。在市场普遍认为"无数据即无政策行动"的预期下——至少对美联储即将召开的会 议如此，这种不确定性反而助推美元走强。 美元指数技术分析 从技术上来看，美指周二上涨在99.50之下遇阻，下跌在98.95之上受到支持，意味着美元短线上涨后有 可能保持下跌的走势。如果美指今天上涨在99.35之下遇阻，后市下跌的目标将会指向98.85--98.70之 间。今天美元走势短线阻力在99.30--99.35，短线重要阻力在99.60--99.65。今天美指短线支持在98.85- -98.90，短线重要支持在98.70--98.75。 鲍威尔指出停摆前数据显示经济增长可能超预期，但他同时强调"美国就业市场下行风险已有所加剧"。 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index decreased by 0.21% to 99.05, indicating a general weakening of the dollar against other currencies [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.33% against the dollar, reaching a rate of 1.1608 [1] - The British pound fell by 0.10% to 1.3322 against the dollar, while the Australian dollar declined by 0.45% to 0.6486 [1] - The US dollar gained 0.06% against the Canadian dollar, with a rate of 1.4045, and decreased by 0.39% against the Swiss franc, reaching 0.8010 [1]