青侨阳光医药投资 - 月度思考 本文为青侨阳光 2025 年 3 月报，投资思考部分节选。 1 医药行业继续稳健增长， 国产创新继续强劲高增。 我们 汇总统计市值超20亿的港股医药公司的年度业绩 ，2024年合计营收增速为5.5%，合计净利(剔除金斯瑞解 除传奇合并带来的一次性虚拟利润)增速为13.0%， 继续保持稳健增长 。 在总量营收持续高增的背后，国产创新药的出海业务爆发与盈利能力改善尤其值得重视。 盈利方面，港股18A两家代表性的头部药企双双触及盈利临界点： 出海方面，以2019年率先实现美国成功上市的泽布替尼为例，2020-2024年海外营收折合人民币分别实现 了1亿、7亿、29亿、78亿、172亿元营收，增长相当迅猛。 并不在上述18A产品营收统计范围内的西达基奥仑赛，2022年美国获批上市后，2022-2024年美国营收折 合人民币分别实现9亿、35亿、69亿元营收，增长速度同样令人印象深刻。 国内创新药市场约为全球创新药市场的4%-5%，意味着海外市场是国内市场近20倍体量，就算只能做欧 日等非美市场，也有10倍+的潜在空间，这是相当令人振奋的潜在增量空间。 百济神州，2024年的GAAP利润 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the diversification of payment for innovative drugs is progressing, with a focus on establishing a comprehensive and multi-tiered commercial insurance drug catalog system in China [1] - The "full coverage" approach aims to expand the drug catalog to include all drugs approved by domestic and foreign regulatory agencies, with a draft proposal circulating for industry feedback [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a slight fluctuation on April 11, but the innovative drug sector experienced a counter-trend increase, with the innovative drug index's price-to-earnings ratio dropping from 64 times on February 21 to 24 times, indicating a significant improvement in value [1] Group 2 - The innovative drug ETF (159992) tracks an index that includes leading companies in the innovative drug industry, benefiting from trends such as AI-enabled drug development and the introduction of a new insurance catalog for high-priced innovative drugs [2] - The government has signaled strong support for the innovative drug sector, designating it as one of the top ten tasks in the 2025 government work report, which includes measures to enhance drug pricing mechanisms and support innovative drug development [2] - The government initiatives aim to create a more favorable environment for the innovative drug industry by promoting provincial-level coordination of basic medical insurance and reforming payment methods [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent exclusive licensing agreement between Novo Nordisk and a Chinese innovative drug company for the weight loss drug UBT251, valued at up to $2 billion, highlights the global recognition of China's innovative pharmaceutical capabilities [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (159567) rose by 0.44% today, marking two consecutive days of net capital inflow [1] - The average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong innovative drug ETF over the past month was 189 million yuan, ranking first in liquidity among indices [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a slight rebound on March 26, with the innovative drug sector continuing to recover amid increased market attention on domestic innovative drug companies [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Major companies in the Hong Kong innovative drug index showed positive performance, with three companies, including 3SBio, rising over 10%, and several others, such as WuXi AppTec and Kintor Pharmaceutical, increasing by over 4% [2] - Recent financial reports from leading drug companies indicate a positive trend in fundamentals, with WuXi AppTec achieving a record high quarterly revenue in Q4 2024 and a 47% year-on-year increase in order size [3] - Hansoh Pharmaceutical reported a 33.4% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, with innovative drug revenue accounting for 77.3% of total revenue [3] Group 3: Industry Trends - The share of China's pharmaceutical licensing transactions valued over $5 million has increased from less than 5% in 2020 to approximately 30% in 2024 [3] - In the first two months of 2025, there were 16 licensing projects for Chinese innovative drugs, accounting for nearly 50% of global transaction value [3] - The innovative drug sector in Hong Kong is expected to have greater valuation expansion potential compared to A-shares, driven by higher R&D expenditure and overseas revenue ratios [4]

深夜利好！恒瑞医药与默沙东签订19.7亿美元独家 协议 扬子晚报网3月26日讯(记者范晓林实习生朱秋璇)3月25日晚间，中国创新药龙头恒瑞医药 （600276）(600276.SH)宣布与美国跨国药企默沙东(Merck&Co,Inc.股票代码：MRK)达成独家许可协 议，将其自主研发的产品a HRS-5346在大中华区以外的全球权益授予后者。 默沙东将获得HRS-5346在大中华地区以外的全球范围内开发、生产和商业化的独家权利。 公告显示，HRS-5346是一种在研的Lp(a)口服小分子抑制剂，目前正在中国进行二期临床试验。 Lp(a)升高是一种遗传决定的疾病，也是心血管疾病的独立危险因素。据统计，全球约有14亿人口Lp(a) 水平升高。 根据双方敲定的协议条款，在交易款项安排上，恒瑞医药可即刻收获2亿美元的首付款，后续还有 望凭借该项目特定的开发、监管以及商业化进展，获得不超过17.7亿美元的里程碑付款。 若 HRS-5346相关产品顺利获批上市，恒瑞医药还将基于其净销售额，按一定比例获取销售提成， 交易总额上限高达19.7亿美元。HRS-5346作为一款口服小分子Lp(a)抑制剂，目前正在中国国内积极开 ...