从欧美到东南亚，中国创新药出海的下一个风口在哪 20251123 当前全球市场波动对 A 股市场产生了一定影响。例如，美股近期波动较大，高 开低走，引发日韩科技股下跌，日经 225 指数跌幅达 2%以上，韩国指数接近 4%。这种全球共振效应也传导至 A 股市场，引发调整。背后的原因包括 12 月 份美联储降息预期降低，以及市场流动性挑战。此外，比特币价格连续下跌也 反映出全球风险偏好降低。 尽管短期内存在调整压力，但整体来看，今年 （2025 年）以来全球权益市场表现良好，多因素推动如降息预期、美元走弱 等。然而短期逻辑变化可能导致指数调整，但长期来看，我们认为 A 股底层逻 辑未变，包括科技引领、深周期接力以及居民财富向权益市场转移等趋势依然 存在。因此，我们认为当前仍处于牛市通道中，只是短期震荡加剧，不会改变 长期上涨趋势。 摘要 中国医药板块在深度调整后企稳反转，呈现结构性增长，以泽布替尼、 伏美替尼为代表的国产创新药在北美市场销量突破，驱动生物制药板块 盈利，标志着中国医药产业从仿制向创新升级。 中国创新药或新分子的全球贡献率自 2015 年持续上升，预计 2025 年 达到质变阶段，涌现 best ...

26H1 催化丰富、CDK4 抑制剂重点转向一线 Bcl2 抑制剂索托克拉：预计26H1 启动ZS 固定剂量方案对比AV方案的III 期试验，ASH 数据来看有望成 为BIC；BTK CDAC/BGB-16673：预计26H1 读出用于后线CLL 的II 期潜在关键试验数据； CDK4 抑制剂/BGB-43395：预计26H1 启动用于1L BC 的III 期试验（不再开发2L）； 事件 公司公布2025 年三季报，25Q1-Q3 收入为276.0 亿元（+44.2%），归母净利润为11.4 亿元（去年同期 为-36.9 亿元），扣非归母净利润为9.7 亿元（去年同期为-39.9 亿元）。25Q3 收入为100.8 亿元 （+41.1%），归母净利润为6.9 亿元（去年同期为-8.1 亿元），扣非归母净利润为7.1 亿元（去年同期 为-8.7 亿元）。公司同时将全年收入指引从此前的50-53 亿美元调整至51-53 亿美元、全年GAAP 经营利 润为正的指引不变。 核心观点 25Q3 泽布替尼突破10 亿美元， 费用环比稳中略降前三季度拆分来看，泽布替尼全球收入达27.8 亿美元 （+53.2%），其中美国1 ...

买入|维持 证券研究报告：医药生物 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-11-21 股票投资评级 个股表现 -10% 2% 14% 26% 38% 50% 62% 74% 86% 98% 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 2025-11 百济神州 医药生物 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 298.80 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）15.41 / 1.15 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）4,604 / 344 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 326.08 / 155.01 | | 资产负债率(%) | 43.6% | | 市盈率 | -82.09 | | 第一大股东 | Amgen Inc.,安进公司 | 研究所 分析师:盛丽华 SAC 登记编号:S1340525060001 Email:shenglihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈灿 SAC 登记编号:S1340525070001 Email:chencan@cnpsec.com 百济神州(688235) 盈利稳步提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the overseas pharmaceutical sector, particularly focusing on innovative drugs and industry chain opportunities, with an investment rating of "Overweight" [1][6]. Core Insights - Multiple policies are supporting the development of the innovative drug industry, with domestic innovative drug transactions reaching historical highs in both value and quantity. The sector's valuation has rebounded from a low point, and leading companies are achieving profitability through increased commercial sales and licensing income [6][8]. - Companies like BeiGene are experiencing significant growth, with global sales exceeding $1 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 51% year-on-year increase. The company anticipates a positive GAAP operating profit for the full year 2025, raising its revenue guidance to $5.1-5.3 billion [1][6]. - Innovent Biologics is expanding its pipeline with a dual focus on oncology and non-oncology products, expecting to achieve positive non-IFRS net profit and EBITDA in 2024, with continued growth projected for 2025 [2][6]. - The report highlights the increasing R&D investments by leading pharmaceutical companies, which are enhancing their innovative pipelines and accelerating their transformation towards innovation [3][7]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Overseas Pharmaceuticals - The report emphasizes the focus on innovative drugs and the opportunities within the industry chain for 2026, noting the historical highs in transaction amounts and numbers for domestic innovative drugs going overseas [6][8]. - BeiGene's overseas sales are highlighted, with Q3 2025 global sales surpassing $1 billion and a significant year-on-year profit turnaround [1][6]. - Innovent Biologics is noted for its strategic partnerships and expected profitability in the coming years [2][6]. Section 2: Pharma Sector - Leading companies are rapidly increasing their R&D investments, which is expected to strengthen their innovative pipelines and global competitiveness [3][7]. - Companies like Hansoh Pharmaceutical and China Biologic Products are projected to see substantial growth in their innovative product revenues, with significant contributions expected in the coming years [3][7]. Section 3: CXO Sector - The report indicates a recovery in investment and financing for innovative drugs, which is likely to drive early-stage R&D investments and boost demand [8]. - Emerging fields such as peptides and ADCs are expected to open new growth opportunities, with a recommendation to focus on companies like WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics [8].

高开涨近5%。 消息面上，11月17日，百济神州宣布III期HERIZON-GEA-01研究取得积极结果。该研究旨在评估在联合化疗的基础上，HER2靶向双特异性抗体泽尼达妥单 抗单药或联合PD-1抑制剂替雷利珠单抗作为HER2阳性局部晚期或转移性胃食管腺癌（GEA，包括胃癌、胃食管结合部腺癌和食道癌）一线治疗的有效性和 安全性。 中信建投此前指出，百济神州泽布替尼持续放量，上调全年业绩指引。考虑到公司BTK海外放量超预期，以及PD-1在欧盟、日本等其他国家上市放量，以 及BCL-2、BTK CDAC、CDK4等重磅管线持续兑现带来商业化进一步兑现，维持"买入"评级。 编辑/doris ...

中信建投（601066）此前指出，百济神州泽布替尼持续放量，上调全年业绩指引。考虑到公司BTK海外 放量超预期，以及PD-1在欧盟、日本等其他国家上市放量，以及BCL-2、BTK CDAC、CDK4等重磅管 线持续兑现带来商业化进一步兑现，维持"买入"评级。 消息面上，11月17日，百济神州宣布III期HERIZON-GEA-01研究取得积极结果。该研究旨在评估在联 合化疗的基础上，HER2靶向双特异性抗体泽尼达妥单抗单药或联合PD-1抑制剂替雷利珠单抗作为 HER2阳性局部晚期或转移性胃食管腺癌（GEA，包括胃癌、胃食管结合部腺癌和食道癌）一线治疗的 有效性和安全性。 百济神州(06160)高开逾3%，截至发稿，涨3.53%，报223.2港元，成交额1196.27万港元。 ...

中信建投此前指出，百济神州泽布替尼持续放量，上调全年业绩指引。考虑到公司BTK海外放量超预 期，以及PD-1在欧盟、日本等其他国家上市放量，以及BCL-2、BTK CDAC、CDK4等重磅管线持续兑 现带来商业化进一步兑现，维持"买入"评级。 智通财经APP获悉，百济神州(06160)高开逾3%，截至发稿，涨3.53%，报223.2港元，成交额1196.27万 港元。 消息面上，11月17日，百济神州宣布III期HERIZON-GEA-01研究取得积极结果。该研究旨在评估在联 合化疗的基础上，HER2靶向双特异性抗体泽尼达妥单抗单药或联合PD-1抑制剂替雷利珠单抗作为 HER2阳性局部晚期或转移性胃食管腺癌（GEA，包括胃癌、胃食管结合部腺癌和食道癌）一线治疗的 有效性和安全性。 ...

11月17日，科兴制药发布股东询价转让计划书。股东深圳科益医药控股有限公司拟转让股份1006万股，占公司总股本的5.00%，转让原因为自身经营发展需 要，受让方为具备相应定价能力和风险承受能力的机构投资者。 11月3日，欧林生物发布公告称，公司副总经理、财务负责人谭勇先生的减持计划已经完成。根据公告，谭勇先生原持有公司股份57.14万股，占公司总股本 的0.14%。按照2025年9月5日披露的减持计划，他计划通过集中竞价交易方式减持不超过12.89万股。 11月17日，A股市场走势分化，创新药板块回调，截至14:02，"20CM创新药新物种"科创创新药ETF汇添富（589120）缩量跌近3%，板块延续回调。近20个 交易日，科创创新药ETF汇添富（589120）获资金净申购超1.1亿元！ 科创创新药ETF汇添富（589120）标的指数成分股全线回调，艾力斯、泽璟制药等跌超4%，百济神州、益方生物等跌超3%，百利天恒、君实生物等跌超 2%，荣昌生物等跌超1%，科兴制药、欧琳生物等重挫。 【科创创新药ETF汇添富（589120）标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 估算权重 | | ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the focus on innovative drugs and the opportunities within the pharmaceutical industry chain, indicating a positive outlook for the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector by 2026 [1][3] - Multiple policies are supporting the development of the innovative drug industry, with record highs in both transaction amounts and numbers for domestic innovative drugs going overseas [3][6] - The report notes a rebound in valuations for the sector, with leading companies achieving profitability through increased commercialization and licensing revenues [3][6] Group 2 - Key companies such as BeiGene and Innovent Biologics are experiencing significant sales growth, with BeiGene's global sales exceeding $1 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 51% year-on-year increase [3][4] - Innovent Biologics is expanding its pipeline and is expected to achieve positive non-IFRS net profit and EBITDA in 2024, with continued growth projected for 2025 [3][4] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the CXO sector, driven by a recovery in investment and demand for early-stage research, particularly in emerging fields like peptides and ADCs [3][6] Group 3 - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast and valuation for key companies, indicating significant revenue growth for companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics, with projected revenues of $5.1 billion and $2.7 billion respectively for 2025 [4][6] - The pharmaceutical sector is noted for its robust performance, with companies like Sihuan Pharmaceutical and Hengrui Medicine showing strong revenue contributions from innovative products [4][6] - The report also highlights the increasing competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs on a global scale, with successful international collaborations and licensing agreements [3][6] Group 4 - The report indicates that the Hong Kong pharmaceutical market has shown impressive performance year-to-date, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index significantly outperforming other markets, achieving an approximate 82% increase [15][16] - Valuations for Hong Kong pharmaceuticals are noted to be lower than those in A-shares and overseas markets, with a median PE of 17x for 2025 [15][16] - The report mentions a notable increase in the number of IPOs in the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector, with over 20 new companies listed in 2025, raising substantial capital [40][41]

Group 1: Macro Strategy - The current A-share market resembles the early stages of the 2020-2021 bull market, indicating a slow bull phase driven by strategic funds, similar to the role of foreign capital in early 2020 [1][11] - The market is expected to follow a structural "innovation bull" trend in 2026, as new funds and improved performance from domestic institutions emerge [1][11] - The macroeconomic environment in 2025 shows a mild recovery driven by policy support, with significant similarities to the early 2020 recovery phase [1][11] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - The bond market remains in a box range, with the central bank maintaining liquidity through reverse repos and net purchases of government bonds [2][12] - The introduction of new redemption fee regulations is anticipated to cause volatility in the bond market, but a cautious optimism is advised as the impact will be spread over time [2][12] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to continue a narrow range of fluctuations, with potential entry points if rates rise sharply due to new regulations [2][12] Group 3: Industry Insights - Aojie Technology is a rare domestic wireless communication baseband chip manufacturer, focusing on four main product categories, including baseband chips and ASICs [6][22] - The company is in a technology accumulation phase, with expectations of turning profitable as technology matures and product lines expand [6][22] - The market for cellular IoT is projected to enter a rapid expansion phase over the next six years, driven by advancements in 5G technology [6][22] Group 4: Company Performance - Baiji Shenzhou's core product, Zebutinib, is experiencing significant growth, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 revised upwards, indicating strong profit potential [7][9] - The company is expected to achieve rapid profit release in the coming years due to scale effects and improved cost management [7][9] - Baiji Shenzhou is positioned as a leading domestic innovative drug company, with a strong global commercialization capability [7][9]