机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：余文心/周航/陈铭/吴晗 风险提示：全球生物医药研发景气度风险；行业竞争加剧风险；全球宏观地缘风险；产能建设不达预期 风险；产能爬坡不达预期风险。 我们预计公司25/26/27 年EPS 分别为1.11/1.28/1.49 元。我们采用PE 估值方法，考虑到公司上调业绩指 引、CRDMO 模式稀缺，我们给予公司2025 年PE 倍数40 倍，目标价每股48.18 港元，维持"增持"评 级。 分子漏斗项目数不断扩大，在手订单充足保障未来增长。2025 上半年新增86 个项目为1H 历史新高，其 中超过一半新签项目来自美国，双抗、多抗、抗体偶联药物占新签项目比例超过70%。截至25H1，公 司864 个项目中包含67 个临床三期和24 个商业化生产项目，为未来商业化生产收入持续增长奠定坚实 基础。截至25H1，公司未完成订单总额达203 亿美元，未完成服务订单约114亿美元。临床三期项目推 进、商业化生产项目爬坡和早期项目的临床进展共同促进未完成服务订单增长，三年内未完成订单约42 亿美元，巩固近期收入增长预期。 M 端收入保持较快增长，北美地区收入增速展现韧性。临床前收入今年上半年同 ...

Core Insights - The company, WuXi Biologics, reported a revenue of 9.95 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.1%, with net profit increasing by 54.8% to 2.76 billion RMB [1] - Key drivers for revenue growth include the successful execution of the "Follow and Win" strategy, expansion of service offerings in the biopharmaceutical industry, and improved utilization of existing and new capacities [1][2] - The company added 86 integrated development projects in the first half of 2025, solidifying its position as a leader in complex biologics with a product line that includes 168 bispecific/multispecific antibodies and 225 antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) [1][2] Revenue Growth and Project Development - Preclinical revenue increased by 35.2% year-on-year, driven by the development and transition of R&D service projects [2] - The company supports 67 Phase III clinical projects and 24 commercial production projects, with a 24.9% increase in revenue from these areas, reflecting the maturation of early projects [3] - The total unfulfilled order backlog reached 20.34 billion USD, with unfulfilled service orders and potential milestone payments amounting to 11.35 billion USD and 9 billion USD, respectively [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its "Global Dual Factory" strategy to enhance capacity and capabilities in response to growing commercialization demands [3] - Recent strategic transactions include the asset transfer of a vaccine facility in Ireland and a biomanufacturing plant in Germany, aimed at optimizing global operations and focusing on large-scale biomanufacturing in Singapore [3] - The company has empowered over 50 molecular projects and is set to receive potential milestone payments and sales royalties, contributing to long-term profit growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The investment logic and strategy in the healthcare sector remain fundamentally unchanged despite market fluctuations, driven by continuous breakthroughs in life sciences and the evolution of tools to address these challenges [7][12]. Group 1: Key Drivers of the Industry - The biopharmaceutical industry is primarily driven by two core factors: the deepening understanding of drug targets in biology and the development of molecular tools to target these [9][12]. - The increasing investment in capital accelerates the industry's development, although short-term market sentiments do not fundamentally alter the industry's trajectory [11][12]. Group 2: Innovations and Market Trends - Recent years have seen rapid advancements in innovative drug molecules such as ADCs (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) and bispecific antibodies, reflecting the ongoing evolution of the two core drivers [13]. - The success of ADCs in China validates the efficiency of the innovation ecosystem, with expectations for further developments in next-generation ADCs and small nucleic acid drugs [13][14]. Group 3: Commercialization Strategies - The commercialization of biopharmaceuticals is evaluated based on whether new products are faster, cheaper, or better than existing ones, with a focus on maximizing one of these aspects [15]. - CAR-T therapy exemplifies a case where clinical effectiveness is high, but complexity and cost hinder its commercialization progress [17]. Group 4: Strategic Licensing and Collaborations - The surge in licensing-out transactions in China's innovative drug sector is attributed to improved infrastructure, talent availability, and capital contributions, enhancing the industry's global recognition [19][20]. - For some companies, licensing agreements serve as a strategic choice to secure funding and industry validation, especially in a challenging capital market environment [20][22]. Group 5: Market Outlook and Investor Sentiment - The outlook for China's biopharmaceutical industry is optimistic, with expectations for more robust growth in the coming years as companies increasingly engage in global markets [24]. - The long-term nature of drug development necessitates strong conviction from entrepreneurs and investors, with a shift away from speculative ventures leading to a more resilient entrepreneurial landscape [24].

Group 1 - The company has entered into a global exclusive licensing agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for SYH2086, covering development, production, and commercialization, with potential total payments of up to $2.075 billion, including an upfront payment of $120 million and milestone payments based on annual net sales [1] - SYH2086 is in the preclinical stage and has complete intellectual property rights, with expectations for significant growth in the weight loss and MASH fields following the licensing agreement [1] - The management anticipates potential upfront and milestone payments from ongoing negotiations for three other projects, including SYS6010 (EGFR-ADC), could total around $5 billion [1] Group 2 - The company continues to increase its R&D investment, with 2024 R&D expenses projected to reach ¥5.191 billion (up 7.5% year-over-year), accounting for 21.9% of its revenue from prescription drugs, which is industry-leading [2] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company has 24 projects in critical II/III clinical phases and 9 projects under review for market approval, indicating a robust pipeline [2] - The company is expected to achieve multiple new drug approvals and data readouts throughout the year, maintaining a strong position in business development [2] Group 3 - The company is recognized as a leading domestic pharmaceutical firm with ample cash reserves, transitioning from traditional pharmaceuticals to innovation [2] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to ¥4.92 billion and ¥5.25 billion, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 24.9% and 23.9% from previous estimates [2] - The current valuation is considered attractive due to the expected orderly market entry of significant products, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is undergoing an innovative transformation, actively seeking new business growth points in the face of intensified competition in traditional generic drug CROs. It is focusing on both innovative drug and generic drug R&D, with numerous projects in key medical fields such as oncology, autoimmune diseases, neuropsychiatric disorders, and respiratory diseases [7] - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 703 million, 751 million, and 823 million RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected net profit of 18 million, 55 million, and 61 million RMB for the same years [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported an operating revenue of 1,017 million RMB, with a growth rate of 67.5%. However, a significant decline is expected in 2024 with a revenue forecast of 802 million RMB, representing a decrease of 21.2% [6][8] - The net profit for 2023 was 272 million RMB, with a growth rate of 40.1%. A loss of 53 million RMB is anticipated for 2024, followed by a recovery to 18 million RMB in 2025 [6][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 2.51 RMB, but it is projected to drop to -0.49 RMB in 2024 before rebounding to 0.16 RMB in 2025 [6][8] Business Development and Innovation - The company is actively pursuing innovative drug development, with several small molecule projects underway, including BIOS-0629, BIOS-0623, BIOS-0632, and BIOS-0635. Additionally, a large molecule innovative drug targeting CD24 antibodies is in the IND pre-stage [7] - The company has made significant progress in its key innovative product targeting the H3 receptor, which addresses daytime sleepiness in patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). The global prevalence of OSA is substantial, with approximately 936 million individuals affected [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a broad portfolio in organoid business, covering human tumor organoids, IPSC-derived normal organoids, and toxicity prediction organoids. This has become an auxiliary tool in the drug development process [7] - The investment recommendation reflects the company's ongoing innovative transformation and its potential for future growth in the pharmaceutical sector [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **innovative drug industry** in China, highlighting its growth and international recognition, particularly in the context of major academic conferences like ASR and ASCO [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Policy Support**: Since early 2024, favorable policies have been introduced to support the pharmaceutical industry, positively impacting the valuation of innovative drugs [2][3]. - **International Recognition**: The number of Chinese companies and new drugs showcased at the 2025 ASR and ASCO conferences reached record highs, indicating increased international recognition and collaboration opportunities [1][2][4]. - **Medicare Fund Health**: The Medicare fund is operating well, with a healthy surplus rate, which reduces future payment pressures. New innovative drugs entering negotiations from 2018 to 2024 accounted for only 2% of total fund expenditures, suggesting significant growth potential in the market [1][5]. - **Leading Fields**: China holds a leading position in areas such as ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates), monoclonal antibodies, bispecific antibodies, and gene therapy, contributing to the establishment of global competitiveness [1][6]. - **Significant Transactions**: Notable transactions in the innovative drug sector include the licensing of TCE bispecific antibodies from Tongren Pharmaceutical to Merck, with an upfront payment of $700 million, reflecting increased recognition from multinational companies [1][7]. Additional Important Content - **Emerging "留扣" Model**: This new transaction model allows Chinese companies to license products or establish small companies overseas to collaborate with foreign funds, alleviating cash flow pressures and potentially leading to profitable sales in the U.S. market [3][8][9]. - **Profitability Expectations**: Companies like Innovent Biologics and BeiGene are expected to achieve profitability by 2025, indicating that the innovative drug sector is entering a profitable cycle, which may attract more investors [3][10]. - **Impact of Business Development (BD)**: BD activities significantly contribute to company performance, as high-quality research outputs gain international recognition, leading to more licensing deals and collaborations with multinational corporations [11]. - **Valuation Methods**: The common methods for evaluating innovative drug companies include RNPV (Risk-Adjusted Net Present Value) and simplified peak sales multiples, which consider various factors such as discount rates and growth rates [12][17]. - **Factors Influencing PS Multiples**: Key factors affecting the PS multiples include profit margins, product launch speeds, success rates of R&D, and discount rates, all of which have shown positive trends in the innovative drug sector [15][16][18]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and developments within the innovative drug industry as discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current landscape and future prospects.

Group 1 - China's innovative drug industry has significantly improved its capabilities, with the number of innovative drug pipelines ranking second globally at 4,804 in 2024, just behind the United States at 5,268 [1][10] - The global pipeline of emerging therapies includes cutting-edge technologies such as gene therapy, cell therapy, RNA therapy, ADC, and bispecific/multispecific antibodies, with the U.S. holding over 40% of the global pipeline [1][12] - The number of innovative drugs approved in China has increased from 53 in 2019 to 85 in 2024, indicating a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% [15] Group 2 - The aging population in China is projected to reach 310 million people aged 60 and above by 2024, accounting for 22% of the total population, leading to a rise in chronic diseases [3][26] - The chronic disease prevalence among younger populations is increasing due to lifestyle factors, resulting in higher long-term medication demands [29][31] - The Chinese innovative drug market has surpassed a trillion-dollar scale, growing from $132.5 billion in 2019 to an estimated $159.2 billion in 2024, with a global market share of around 15% [31][32] Group 3 - The internationalization of Chinese innovative drugs has seen explosive growth, with license-out transaction amounts increasing from $900 million in 2019 to $51.9 billion in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 125% [2][45] - The number of overseas clinical trials conducted by Chinese pharmaceutical companies has risen from 98 in 2019 to 193 in 2022, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 25.3% [50] - The Chinese innovative drug industry is transitioning from a "follower" to a "parallel" player in the global pharmaceutical landscape, with increasing contributions to global medical innovation [52] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, WuXi AppTec, and Enhua Pharmaceutical, which have strong pipelines and growth potential [4][59][66] - Heng Rui Medicine has established multiple R&D centers globally and has a robust pipeline with several innovative drugs approved for clinical trials [59] - WuXi AppTec is a leading platform for pharmaceutical and medical device R&D, with strong growth in its TIDES business line and a favorable industry outlook [61]

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is fundamentally driven by two core factors: continuous breakthroughs in life sciences understanding and the evolution of tools to address life science challenges [1][5][8] - Despite market fluctuations, the investment logic and strategies in the healthcare sector remain unchanged, focusing on finding products that can significantly alter life trajectories [5][16] - The maturation of China's innovative drug infrastructure has been validated, indicating a more prosperous future for the pharmaceutical industry in China [1][16] Investment Strategies - The investment approach emphasizes a stable and consistent strategy, seeking to invest in innovative teams and technologies that can lead to significant breakthroughs [5][6] - The commercial viability of new products is assessed through a model that prioritizes being faster, cheaper, or better compared to existing solutions [9][11] - Recent trends show a surge in License-out transactions in China's innovative drug sector, reflecting the industry's growing maturity and international recognition [12][13] Market Dynamics - The rise of artificial intelligence is seen as a catalyst for accelerating research and development in the pharmaceutical industry, potentially transforming the entire healthcare landscape [8] - The industry is currently experiencing a rich pipeline of assets, allowing companies to strategically engage in licensing deals to secure funding and industry validation [12][15] - The long-term nature of drug development necessitates strong conviction from entrepreneurs and investors, as the process can take a decade or more to yield results [16]

Core Insights - The 13th Venture Capital Conference highlighted the growing internationalization of China's innovative pharmaceuticals, with overseas licensing transactions nearing last year's total in the first half of 2023, marking China's transition from a market participant to a rule-maker in the global pharmaceutical landscape [1] - The conference featured discussions on the structural and global pathways for Chinese innovative drugs to enter international markets, emphasizing the competitive pricing and the development of a skilled workforce in the industry [2][3] Group 1: Industry Trends - The presence of traditional Big Pharma in business development (BD) for innovative drugs has increased, indicating a shift in the market dynamics and the competitive pricing of Chinese innovative drugs on a global scale [2] - The innovative drug sector is experiencing profound changes, with domestic researchers now adept at conducting studies that meet international standards, and a talent pool emerging that understands innovative drug development [2] - The total BD amount in the first half of the year exceeded that of the entire previous year, suggesting a strong upward trend in the industry [3] Group 2: Company Developments - Weigang Holdings has established three biotechnology-related funds with a total scale of 800 million yuan, aiming to provide specialized and market-oriented services to life science companies in the Guangming District [1] - Kangfang Biotech is highlighted as a typical representative of Chinese innovative drug companies making strides towards international markets, with expectations for the emergence of trillion-yuan market cap companies in the future [3] - Six biopharmaceutical companies showcased their developments at the conference, representing the rising "hardcore strength" of China's biopharmaceutical sector [3]

Core Insights - The "Biopharmaceutical Industry and Finance Matching Conference" was successfully held, focusing on topics such as the internationalization of innovative drugs [1] - China's innovative drug overseas licensing transactions in the first half of the year approached the total for the previous year, indicating a shift from participant to rule-maker in the global pharmaceutical market [1] - The establishment of three biotechnology-related funds with a total scale of 800 million yuan by Weiguang Holdings highlights the growing investment in the biopharmaceutical sector [1] Industry Trends - The presence of traditional big pharmaceutical companies in the business development (BD) market for innovative drugs is increasing, with competitive pricing for Chinese innovative drugs on a global scale [2] - The industry is undergoing significant changes, with domestic clinical researchers now familiar with international standards for innovative drug research and a talent pool capable of international collaboration [2] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going international is expected to accelerate, driven by cost advantages and institutional benefits [3] Investment Opportunities - The total BD amount for innovative drugs in the first half of the year exceeded that of the entire previous year, indicating a positive outlook for the second half [3] - Companies like Kangfang Biotech are emerging as typical representatives of Chinese innovative drug firms entering the international market, suggesting potential for future billion-dollar valuation companies [2][3] - Six biopharmaceutical companies showcased their capabilities at the conference, representing the rising "hardcore strength" of China's biopharmaceutical sector [3]