创新药估值框架 20250928 摘要 国家对创新药的政策支持力度加大，自 2024 年初以来，一系列利好政 策的出台为创新药估值重塑提供了条件，标志着行业进入新的知识周期。 医保基金运行稳健，结余状态和结余率均保持健康水平，为国内创新药 市场提供了广阔的发展前景，医保谈判新增创新药销售额占比仍有提升 空间。 中国创新药在国际学术会议如 ACR 和 ASCO 上的成果展示数量创历史 新高，提升了国际影响力，并促进了与海外公司的合作与交易。 中国创新药的 BD 交易数量和质量显著提升，交易数量仅次于美国，且 越来越多的产品授权给海外公司，总包金额和首付款均呈现增长趋势。 中国企业通过授权交易获得可观收益，以销售金额 10%左右的净利润形 式分成，预计未来十年内将从这些授权产品中获得显著回报，尤其在 ADC、双抗等领域。 信达生物、百利神州等创新药企业预计在 2025 年实现盈利，预示着整 个创新药赛道将进入盈利周期，并可能获得更高的估值倍数。 当前国内创新药企业可以以 5 倍 PS 倍数作为基准进行估值调整，相较 于过去 3 倍的基准有所提高，利润率和确定性较高的产品可获得更高估 值溢价。 Q&A 近年来创新药 ...

Group 1 - The innovative drug sector has shown remarkable performance this year, driven by fundamental breakthroughs, policy support, and valuation recovery [1][2] - The total value of BD transactions in the innovative drug sector exceeded $60 billion in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024 [1] - The Chinese innovative drug market has significant growth potential, with current innovative drug market share below 20%, compared to over 50% in developed countries [5] Group 2 - The innovative drug sector is currently in the early stages of its investment cycle, with substantial room for growth and valuation improvement [4][5] - The market is witnessing a shift from homogeneous imitation to differentiated innovation, with leading companies expanding their market share [6][7] - Key areas of opportunity include ADC and dual-antibody therapies, which are expected to take over the current market positions of PD-1 and chemotherapy [6]

牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限 量发放！先到先得！ 今年以来，创新药板块表现亮眼，成为引领市场上行的主流板块之一。近期海外创新药相关 消息扰动市场，整体波动加大，对此基金经理如何看待？行至当下，创新药板块的真实投资 价值几何？基本面又有哪些变化？医药板块还有哪些细分领域的机会值得关注？记者邀请了 三位聚焦创新药领域投资的基金经理——嘉实基金大健康研究总监郝淼，平安基金权益投资 部医药基金经理周思聪，长城基金权益投资部副总经理、基金经理谭小兵，对上述议题展开 探讨。 调整充分利好共振 估值层面，创新药板块经历3年深度调整后迎来修复，资金大幅回流进而推动板块估值修复。 记者：近年来，企业积极出海，叠加政策支持，将如何影响创新药行业竞争格局？ 周思聪：BD和医保政策，如同硬币的两面，正从外部和内部双向驱动，深刻地改变中国创新 药行业的竞争格局。 海外授权主要带来三方面影响：第一，加速国产创新药企业的新陈代谢；第二，"输血"效应 加剧分化；第三，倒逼研发全球化，提高国产创新药企业自身的研发标准和国际化视野。 医保政策带来的影响也主要体现在三方面：第一，确立了 ...

Core Insights - The innovative drug sector has shown remarkable performance this year, becoming one of the main driving forces behind market growth [1][17] - Recent overseas news related to innovative drugs has increased market volatility, prompting discussions on the true investment value and fundamental changes within the sector [1][17] Group 1: Driving Factors Behind Performance - The strong performance of the innovative drug sector is driven by favorable fundamentals, including robust policy support and rapid revenue growth in China's innovative drug industry [18] - The industry has accelerated its international development, with numerous product collaboration agreements with overseas multinational companies, leading to record-high transaction amounts [18][19] - The innovative drug sector's significant rise is attributed to a combination of fundamental breakthroughs, policy support, and valuation recovery [19] Group 2: Impact of Policy and Internationalization - The introduction of supportive policies, such as the measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration, has provided a solid foundation for the development of innovative drugs [19][22] - The competitive landscape of the innovative drug industry is being reshaped by overseas licensing and policy support, leading to a shift from homogeneous imitation to differentiated innovation [21][22] - The establishment of a "Class B drug directory" has resolved payment bottlenecks, ensuring payment channels for over 100 innovative drugs and creating a multi-channel payment system [22] Group 3: Stock Selection Strategies - Investment strategies focus on companies with significant growth potential, high industry prosperity, and strong management integrity [23] - Continuous tracking of key pipelines and entering positions when companies are undervalued is emphasized to capitalize on market recognition [23] - A balanced portfolio approach is recommended, combining long-term growth companies with those that have potential for short-term gains [23] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The innovative drug sector is currently in the early stages of a rebound, with significant growth potential as the market for innovative drugs in China is still underdeveloped compared to developed countries [25] - The sector is expected to transition from a phase of broad increases to a performance-driven structural market, focusing on data and earnings rather than mere expectations [26] - Emerging fields such as innovative medical devices and life sciences are also seen as promising areas for investment [27]

张大伟 制图 he B 郝淼 t (8) - 1099 and and 1 H 周思聪 (') e # T //// 1 s fr p 0 the first aff M 谭小兵 ◎记者 陈玥 何漪 今年以来，创新药板块表现亮眼，成为引领市场上行的主流板块之一。近期海外创新药相关消息扰动市 场，整体波动加大，对此基金经理如何看待？行至当下，创新药板块的真实投资价值几何？基本面又有 哪些变化？医药板块还有哪些细分领域的机会值得关注？上海证券报记者邀请了三位聚焦创新药领域投 资的基金经理——嘉实基金大健康研究总监郝淼，平安基金权益投资部医药基金经理周思聪，长城基金 权益投资部副总经理、基金经理谭小兵，对上述议题展开探讨。 调整充分 利好共振 记者：创新药板块今年以来的亮眼表现背后有哪些动因？ 郝淼：创新药表现突出背后的驱动因素在于板块基本面向好。一方面，政策支持有力，包括医保支付、 医院准入等，带来中国创新药产业收入端的快速增长；另一方面，创新药产业加速国际化发展，与海外 跨国公司达成许多产品合作开发协议，且交易金额屡创新高，极大地提振了投资者对于中国创新药公司 的信心。 谭小兵：创新药板块的显著上涨是基本面突破 ...

Core Insights - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a significant resurgence, with the Oriental Red Medical Upgrade Fund achieving a year-to-date return of 82.35% as of August 22, 2025, significantly outperforming its benchmark [1] - The fund manager emphasizes the importance of understanding the fundamental changes in the market rather than relying on market fluctuations [1][2] - The launch of the Oriental Red Medical Innovation Mixed Fund (QDII) on September 10, 2023, indicates a continued focus on innovative drugs as a key investment area [2] Investment Strategy - The fund manager believes that the innovative drug market may see differentiation, with funds favoring truly innovative companies [2] - A long-term perspective is taken, with a focus on various sub-sectors such as ADC, dual antibodies, multi-antibodies, gene therapy, and innovative small molecules [2][3] - The manager employs a unique industry classification system, dividing the pharmaceutical sector into 18 sub-industries to better capture growth opportunities [3] Market Dynamics - The investment approach is influenced by policy cycles and growth rates, with a focus on sectors benefiting from government support [3][4] - The manager prefers to identify opportunities in sectors at the bottom of their cycles, emphasizing the importance of solid company operations even in challenging times [4] - A rigorous valuation methodology is applied, with different metrics used for various types of companies, including PE, PEG, and specific criteria for innovative drugs [5][6] Future Outlook - The year 2024 is seen as a critical turning point for innovative drug companies, with expectations for significant market developments in 2026-2027 [7] - Recent policy measures aimed at supporting high-quality development in innovative drugs are expected to enhance the industry's growth potential [8] - The manager anticipates a shift in market sentiment towards companies with genuine innovation and deep value as the market stabilizes [9]

每经编辑｜彭水萍 一是药物研发设计的差异化布局。国内创新药研发已实现从"me-too"到"me-better"再到"first-in-class"的进阶。国内药企并未局限于成本比拼，而是主动寻求 错位竞争——例如聚焦血液瘤、实体瘤的耐药性难题开展针对性研发，形成独特的技术突破口。从实际成果来看，BD出海项目中，双抗、ADC类药物占比 显著，印证了研发策略的差异化价值。 二是产业体系支撑的高费效比优势。在同类靶点药物研发中，国内成本约为国际水平的1/3，这一优势源于多重高效体系支撑。一方面，国内庞大的人口基 数带来丰富的临床资源，另一方面，生物医药领域的"工程师红利"持续释放。这种"高效+低成本"的组合，使得国内药企在研发进度与成本控制上均显著优 于国际同行。 9月11日，科创创新药ETF（589720）开盘回调但随后持续修复，显示市场信心。 中国创新药全球竞争力加速发展 对于"特朗普政府或加强对中国药品限制"的消息，相关机构表示，这一"限制"或为虚张声势。从美国本土来看，中国创新药企通过BD出海，正在抢占美国 Biotech的生态位，该事件本质是美国部分Biotech试图阻止MNC从中国购买管线。但美国MNC ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry** and its strategies for 2025, emphasizing a dual approach of "left hand innovation drugs, right hand new technology" [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **2025 strategy** aims to leverage strong liquidity favoring the technology sector while recognizing the innovative drug sector's potential due to market awareness of industry changes [1][2]. - **Cross-border acquisitions** by multinational pharmaceutical companies, such as Kelun-Biotech and Baillie Gifford, indicate a structural advantage for Chinese innovative drugs, driven by a surge in business development (BD) activities [1][4]. - The **global innovative drug industry** is now driven by new technologies, particularly in oncology, with Chinese companies showing competitive strength in areas like Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADC) and bispecific antibodies [1][6]. - The transition of the Chinese innovative drug market from a "supermarket" model to becoming a global innovation source supplier is crucial, requiring the replacement of certain U.S. biotech products and subsequent BD transactions for funding [1][7][8]. - The development path for Chinese innovative drugs includes three stages: **business development (BD), clinical trials, and commercialization**, with future expansions into small nucleic acids and other new technology fields [1][10][11]. Market Dynamics - The **2025 market performance** of innovative drugs and new technologies has been volatile, with rapid shifts in various sectors, necessitating a clear understanding of underlying logic to avoid missing investment opportunities [2][3]. - The **recent surge** in the innovative drug sector since February 2025 is attributed to significant BD transactions that have shifted market perceptions and created opportunities [5][6]. - Current market adjustments in the innovative drug sector have led to differing opinions on whether this indicates a peak or a temporary pause, highlighting the need for a higher-level understanding of the industry's evolution [7][9]. Challenges and Opportunities - The Chinese innovative drug market faces challenges, including a lack of major industry catalysts and competition for capital from other sectors like AI [13]. - Anticipated catalysts in the fourth quarter, such as data from major conferences and potential spending by multinational companies, are expected to positively influence market expectations [13][14]. Long-term Outlook - Investors are advised to focus on the long-term value of Chinese innovative drugs beyond immediate BD transactions, as successful clinical trials and market entry will enhance valuations over time [9]. - The industry's evolution is projected to take **5 to 10 years**, with a gradual shift towards replacing global biotech functions and achieving a more significant international presence [11][12]. Additional Insights - The relationship between innovative drugs and new medical technologies is characterized by a cyclical interaction, where advancements in one area can stimulate growth in the other [15].

Group 1 - The current hot topics in innovative drugs are bispecific antibodies (双抗) and antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), which are favored by overseas investors [1] - AI development, AI healthcare, and gene therapy are expected to gain popularity in the future, although they are still in early stages compared to ADC and bispecific antibodies [1] - The current leading companies in innovative drug licensing are primarily those focused on bispecific antibodies and ADCs [1] Group 2 - The performance of innovative drugs varies across different markets, with Hong Kong stocks performing well initially, followed by the STAR Market, while A-shares lagged behind [2] - A-shares' slower performance is attributed to many companies transitioning from traditional chemical drugs to innovative drug businesses, resulting in less elasticity compared to pure innovative drug companies [2] - Investors seeking stability can consider pure A-share innovative drugs or a combination of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong innovative drug ETFs [2] Group 3 - There is significant differentiation within the pharmaceutical sector, including biological drugs, chemical drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, medical devices, and medical services [3] - The innovative drug sector can be further divided into chemical innovative drugs and biological innovative drugs, with many investors lacking clarity on these distinctions [3] - For investors who recognize the trend in innovative drugs, it is recommended to invest through funds or ETFs to capture the development of this trend [3] Group 4 - Various indices related to innovative drugs have corresponding products, such as the STAR Market innovative drug ETF and the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong innovative drug ETF [4] - Investors can choose based on their preferences, whether they prefer pure A-share innovative drugs or Hong Kong and STAR Market options [4] - It is important for investors to manage their risk tolerance and prepare psychologically for market fluctuations [4]

Group 1 - The World Lung Cancer Conference (WCLC) will be held from September 6 to September 9, and the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual meeting will take place from October 17 to October 21, which is expected to catalyze the market with excellent data releases [1] - The domestic innovative drug industry is entering a turning point phase where innovative results are being realized after ten years of development, benefiting from the rapid growth of revenue in biotech companies driven by innovative drug launches and overseas licensing deals [1] - The third-generation EGFR-TKI drug, Furmonertinib, along with CAR-T therapy, PD-1, Tislelizumab, and bispecific antibodies, are driving rapid performance growth for companies in the sector [1] Group 2 - The innovative drug sector is currently the most clearly defined sub-industry within the pharmaceutical sector, with significant future growth potential, and is expected to remain the main investment theme for the year [1] - The Guotai Innovative Drug ETF (517110) tracks the SHS Innovative Drug (RMB) Index (931409), which selects listed companies involved in innovative drug research and biopharmaceuticals from the Chinese A-share market [2] - The index constituents exhibit high growth and volatility characteristics, with a high industry concentration, focusing on capturing investment opportunities in the innovative drug field [2]