Economic Performance - The UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in May, marking the second consecutive month of decline, indicating a loss of earlier strong growth momentum [1] - This contraction follows a 0.3% decline in April, suggesting a significant slowdown in the second quarter compared to a 0.7% growth in the first quarter [1][8] - If June output falls by 0.4% or more, the UK economy will experience an overall contraction in the second quarter [1] Sector Performance - The contraction in May was primarily driven by significant declines in the production and construction sectors, which were only partially offset by growth in the services sector [8] - The downturn in production was concentrated in oil and gas extraction, automotive manufacturing, and the volatile pharmaceutical industry [8] Market Reactions - Following the data release, the British pound fell by 0.2% against the US dollar, reaching $1.35 [4] - Investors slightly increased bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in August, with expectations for two rate cuts by the end of the year [9] Government Response - Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged the disappointing GDP data and expressed determination to stimulate economic growth [7] - The Labour government is relying on stronger growth to fund its spending plans, but fiscal conditions are tightening due to changes in welfare payments and winter fuel subsidies [7] Economic Outlook - Economists predict that even if June GDP stabilizes, overall growth for the second quarter will slow to just 0.1% [8] - Concerns about the health of the UK economy have increased, with the Bank of England previously warning of weak potential growth [10]

金十数据7月11日讯，欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔今日表示，再次降息的门槛非常高；通胀没有持续不及目 标的风险；对欧元升值对物价影响的担忧被夸大了；政策处于良好状态。对此，财经网站Forexlive点评 称，这再次证实了欧洲央行打算在整个夏天暂停降息。交易员目前预计7月份不降息的概率约为97%， 而9月份降息的概率仅为38%。 媒体：施纳贝尔再次证实央行打算在整个夏天暂停降息 ...

智通财经7月10日电，韩国央行将维持降息立场，将调整进一步降息的时间和步伐。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Uruguay has reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points to 9% [1] Group 1 - The decision to lower the interest rate reflects the Central Bank's strategy to stimulate economic growth [1] - This rate cut may influence borrowing costs and consumer spending in the Uruguayan economy [1] - The adjustment in the interest rate is part of a broader monetary policy approach to manage inflation and economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Uruguay has reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points to 9.00% [1] Group 1 - The decision to lower the interest rate reflects the Central Bank's strategy to stimulate economic growth [1] - The new interest rate of 9.00% is aimed at encouraging borrowing and investment in the economy [1] - This move may impact inflation rates and overall economic stability in Uruguay [1]

波兰央行委员Kotecki：今年仍有空间进行两次25个基点的降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The possibility of interest rate cuts by the Polish central bank in September is contingent on forthcoming data [1] Group 1 - The Governor of the Polish central bank indicated that a rate cut is possible if the data supports such a decision [1]

金十数据7月3日讯，FSMOne Research助理经理Kevin Khaw Khai Sheng表示，马来西亚央行可能会在7 月份的会议上保持基准利率在3%。虽然最近的宏观经济数据显示出一些疲软，但他表示，这些数据尚 未对整体经济产生"非常关键"的影响。他表示，如果央行下周真的降息，那将更多是一种"保险"举措。 预计，今年晚些时候将降息25个基点，可能是在9月或11月的政策会议期间。 马来西亚央行可能在7月维持利率不变 ...

Group 1 - HSBC Global Research indicates that the upcoming tariffs on products exported from Asia to the US may lead to a decline in shipment volumes in the coming months [1] - Companies are likely to suppress investments amid uncertainty due to the tariffs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could cause oil prices to surge [1] - Asian countries, except for Japan where policy normalization remains a goal, are expected to further cut interest rates with the help of a weakening US dollar [1] Group 2 - There is a focus on whether Asian consumers can support economic growth amidst external adverse factors [1] - There remains hope that household consumption can offset some of the economic weakness [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is focused on the differing monetary policy stances of key central bank leaders, reflecting an uneven path towards policy normalization despite progress in inflation reduction [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and European Central Bank - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed a cautious but slightly dovish tone, indicating that more positive data is needed to confirm a sustained decline in inflation towards the 2% target [2]. - Powell mentioned that if upcoming employment and inflation data continue to improve, the Fed may consider a rate cut as early as September, with market expectations showing a 71.8% probability for this outcome [2][4]. - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reiterated a data-driven approach, noting that while goods inflation has slowed, service sector inflation remains stubborn, and there is no preset path for rate cuts [2][4]. Group 2: Bank of England and Bank of Japan - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey maintained a cautious hawkish stance, expressing concerns over wage growth and service sector inflation despite a noticeable decline in UK inflation [4][5]. - Bailey's comments led to a slight strengthening of the British pound, as market expectations for a summer rate cut were pushed to the fourth quarter [5]. - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that while there has been progress in wage growth, aggressive tightening is not yet appropriate, and the BoJ needs to see stable inflation above 2% before taking further action [6][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Currency Trends - The overall tone from central bank leaders remains consistent, but increasing divergence in policy paths may lead to volatility in the foreign exchange market [8]. - The US dollar is under pressure due to rising fiscal deficits and trade policy uncertainties, with a potential continuation of this trend if upcoming US employment data is weak [8]. - The Japanese yen remains under pressure due to the BoJ's dovish stance, while the euro and pound are experiencing increased volatility as the ECB and BoE navigate the balance between slowing inflation and wage pressures [8].