最新发声。 当地时间10月9日，美联储主席鲍威尔以视频形式在华盛顿特区联邦储备委员会社区银行会议上致欢迎 辞，但他并未对当前经济形势和货币政策前景进行表态，而纽约联储负责人则明确表示美联储应该继续 降息。 鲍威尔：确保社区银行稳健经营 在美联储公布的讲话稿中，鲍威尔表示，社区银行在美国金融体系中发挥着至关重要的作用，因为它们 与所服务的个人和企业有着密切的联系，并且对当地经济状况有直接的了解。这些密切的联系使社区银 行家能够更好地了解他们的客户，以及他们所服务的客户随之而来的产品和服务。 鲍威尔表示，当天的活动是美联储领导人听取社区银行家意见，并更多地了解用户面临的问题的有用机 会。鲍威尔强调，美联储致力于了解这些问题，并一直致力于为社区银行量身定制监管实践，以减少不 必要的负担，同时仍然确保社区银行继续以安全稳健的方式运营。 在致辞中，鲍威尔并未提及当前经济形势，以及货币政策相关的内容。 纽约联储负责人：支持继续降息 10月9日，美联储货币政策委员会(FOMC)委员、纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰.威廉姆斯(John Williams)在 接受《纽约时报》采访时明确表态，支持在今年内进一步下调利率，以应对劳动力市 ...

Group 1 - The UK labor market is experiencing a downturn, with a decrease of 8,000 employees in August, marking the seventh consecutive decline, which is slightly better than the economists' forecast of a 12,000 drop [1] - The wage growth rate, excluding bonuses, has slowed to 4.8%, the lowest in three years, down from 5% in the previous period [1] - The unemployment rate remains at a four-year high of 4.7%, while the number of job vacancies continues to decline [1] Group 2 - Inflation has reached an 18-month high, driven by rising food and energy costs, with the expected inflation rate at 3.8%, nearly double the Bank of England's target of 2% [2] - Traders have reduced bets on interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, with expectations that the Monetary Policy Committee will maintain the base rate at 4% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has significantly revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, now predicting three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, November, and December 2024, along with additional cuts in 2026, which is more aggressive than market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for the Aggressive Shift - Inflation is cooling faster than expected, with key indicators like CPI and PCE showing a quicker decline, particularly in stubborn areas like housing inflation, providing data support for earlier and faster rate cuts [2]. - The labor market is showing signs of significant cooling, with non-farm employment, job openings, and unemployment rate data indicating a return to a balanced state, alleviating concerns about a wage-inflation spiral [3]. - There are increasing risks of economic recession, as leading economic indicators suggest a weakening momentum in the U.S. economy, prompting the Fed to adopt a preemptive rate cut strategy to avoid a hard landing [4]. Group 2: Comparison with Market Expectations - Morgan Stanley's new prediction of three rate cuts in 2024 contrasts with the previous market expectation of only two cuts [5]. - For 2025, while the market anticipated 2-3 cuts, Morgan Stanley forecasts four cuts, indicating a faster pace [5]. - Morgan Stanley's forecast includes three rate cuts in 2026, a prediction rarely made by other institutions, highlighting a more aggressive approach compared to the market's cautious stance [5]. Group 3: Implications for Global Markets - If Morgan Stanley's predictions materialize, global asset prices could undergo significant revaluation, with gold being the biggest beneficiary, potentially reaching historical highs due to lower real interest rates and a weaker dollar [6][7]. - U.S. stocks may experience a liquidity-driven rally, although concerns about economic recession could limit gains, particularly affecting bank stocks due to narrowing interest margins [8][9]. - The dollar's dominance may face challenges, with a faster rate cut path leading to a narrowing of interest rate differentials, potentially resulting in a long-term decline in the dollar index and a rebound for non-U.S. currencies [10]. - Cryptocurrencies may see a resurgence in demand as global liquidity expectations improve, benefiting from both their status as risk assets and as "digital gold" [11][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Long-term investors are advised to accumulate "rate cut beneficiary" assets, such as gold, which should constitute 5%-10% of their portfolio [13]. - Investors should focus on high-quality tech and growth stocks with strong cash flows for long-term holding [14]. - Short-term traders should monitor economic data closely, as stronger-than-expected data could challenge Morgan Stanley's aggressive predictions, necessitating risk management strategies [15]. - All investors should maintain flexibility and avoid heavy bets based on a single prediction, ensuring a balanced and adaptable asset allocation [16].

Group 1 - In August, U.S. job growth significantly slowed, with only 54,000 jobs added, below the market expectation of 68,000 and a sharp decline from the revised 104,000 in July [1][3] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with reduced job vacancies and a slowdown in wage growth, indicating a shift towards a more relaxed supply-demand relationship in the labor market [1][5] - The ADP report indicates that while overall hiring has slowed, sectors like leisure, hospitality, and construction continue to see growth [3][5] Group 2 - The manufacturing, transportation, and education sectors experienced negative job growth in August, highlighting a broader trend of hiring deceleration across both goods-producing and service sectors [5][7] - The Challenger report shows that hiring intentions have dropped to the lowest level since 2009, while layoffs have increased significantly, reflecting a cautious approach from employers [5][7] - Market analysts agree that the slight cooling of the labor market is a fact, leading to a consensus that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting [5][7] Group 3 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a critical reference for the Federal Reserve's decision, with expectations of a 75,000 increase in non-farm jobs and a slight rise in the unemployment rate [7] - Following the ADP data release, U.S. stock futures showed minimal volatility, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down approximately 0.25%, and the dollar index remaining stable around 98.25 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is currently no evidence that higher tariffs on imported goods are causing an overall surge in inflation trends, according to New York Fed President Williams [2] - Williams predicts that interest rate cuts will become appropriate over time, although he did not specify the timing or pace of these cuts [2][3] - The labor market has shown signs of cooling due to high interest rates, with significant slowdowns in job growth since May [2][3] Group 2 - Williams expects the unemployment rate to gradually rise to around 4.5% next year due to the combined impact of trade and immigration policies [3] - Short-term inflation rates may spike above 3%, but are projected to decline to 2.5% by 2026 and further to 2% by 2027, aligning with the Fed's inflation target [3] - The path of interest rates post-September meeting remains unclear, with some officials advocating for a series of rate cuts in the next three to six months [4]

Core Insights - The U.S. private sector job growth in August fell short of expectations, with an increase of 54,000 jobs compared to the anticipated 65,000 [1][4] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with various factors contributing to a slowdown in hiring, including labor shortages and consumer concerns [3][5] Employment Data - The ADP report indicated a revision in previous job growth figures, with July's increase adjusted from 104,000 to 106,000 [1] - Job losses were particularly noted in the trade, transportation, and utilities sectors, which saw a net loss of 17,000 jobs, and the education and health services sector, which lost 12,000 jobs [3] - Conversely, the leisure and hospitality sector added 50,000 jobs in August, partially offsetting the losses in other sectors [3] Wage Growth - Wage growth remained stable in August, with overall wages for employed individuals increasing by 4.4% year-over-year, while those who changed jobs saw a 7.1% increase [4] Unemployment Claims - Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week, exceeding market expectations [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The labor market concerns have led to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with market expectations for a rate cut in September rising to 97.4% [8][9] - The upcoming official employment report is anticipated to provide further insights into the labor market situation [6][7]

Group 1: Employment Situation - In August, the U.S. private sector added only 54,000 jobs, about half of the previous month's increase, falling short of the median forecast of 68,000 jobs [1] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, characterized by a decrease in job vacancies and a slowdown in wage growth [1][2] - The average job growth over the past six months is the weakest since the pandemic began [1] Group 2: Wage Growth - Wage growth remains stable, with a 7.1% increase for employees who changed jobs and a 4.4% increase for those who stayed in their positions [2] - Employment growth is primarily driven by the leisure and hospitality sectors, while trade, education, healthcare, and manufacturing sectors have seen job reductions [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The upcoming government employment report is expected to show a non-farm payroll increase of 75,000 jobs, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate [1] - Concerns about further labor market weakness may lead the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming policy meeting [1] - A report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicates that hiring plans have dropped to the lowest level on record for August, while planned layoffs have increased [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates a cooling labor market in the U.S., evidenced by rising unemployment claims and declining hiring intentions among businesses [1][7]. - The initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30 reached 237,000, the highest level since June, exceeding the expected 230,000 and up from the previous 229,000 [1]. - The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, marking the highest level since July [6]. Group 2 - The continuing claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending August 23 were reported at 1.94 million, slightly below the expected 1.959 million and up from the previous 1.954 million [3]. - The Challenger report indicated a significant increase in layoffs, with hiring intentions among businesses dropping to the lowest level for August since 2009 [7]. - The ADP report also showed a slowdown in hiring by U.S. businesses, suggesting a broader trend of reduced labor market activity [7].

Group 1 - U.S. corporate hiring activity significantly slowed in August, with an increase of 54,000 jobs, well below the expected 68,000 and a decrease from the revised 104,000 in July [1][3] - The report aligns with other indicators showing a cooling labor market, including a reduction in job vacancies and a slowdown in wage growth [3][4] - The labor market's weakening trend is further supported by a recent Challenger report indicating the lowest hiring intentions since 2009 and a surge in layoffs [10] Group 2 - Despite the overall slowdown, certain sectors like leisure and hospitality, as well as construction, showed positive employment growth in August [4][8] - Conversely, hiring growth in goods-producing sectors and services experienced a deceleration, with negative job growth reported in manufacturing, transportation, and education [6][7] - Wage growth for job stayers has slowed to its lowest level since June 2021, indicating a potential balance in labor supply and demand, while job changers continue to see rising wages [8] Group 3 - The weak employment data has strengthened market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with a 97% probability priced in unless unexpected strong inflation data emerges [3][10] - The upcoming official employment report is anticipated to show an increase of 75,000 non-farm jobs in August, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate, which will be crucial for the Fed's rate decision [10]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. job market is cooling down, with job vacancies dropping significantly, which may influence future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3][5] - As of July 31, job vacancies decreased by 176,000 to 7.181 million, marking the lowest level since September of the previous year and the second-lowest since the pandemic began in 2020 [3] - The hiring rate remained unchanged at 3.3%, the lowest level since 2013, while layoffs increased by 12,000 to 1.808 million, indicating a rising trend in layoffs [3][4] Group 2 - Consumer spending is expected to be impacted by changes in the job market, with personal consumption expenditure growth slowing from 1.6% in Q2 to an anticipated 1.3% in Q3 and 1.1% in the last quarter of the year [4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is highly anticipated, with expectations of job additions falling below 100,000, and the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.3% [5] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at possible interest rate cuts, acknowledging rising risks in the labor market, while inflation remains a concern [5][6] Group 3 - The St. Louis Fed President noted that the current policy rate is consistent with a fully employed labor market, but acknowledged downward risks to employment [6] - Atlanta Fed President stated that only one rate cut may be needed in 2025, emphasizing that the policy remains only slightly restrictive [6] - The balance of risks regarding inflation and employment will guide future monetary policy decisions, with a focus on achieving both maximum employment and price stability [6]