下图展示了新闻对短期波动性的预测效力。为聚焦于预测波动性本身，而非价格变动方向，我们根据所有历 史每日收益率z分数的绝对值进行分组处理，并绘制出前72小时的平均新闻z分数。LSEG新闻评分结果表 明，在回顾过去五年波动性处于前10%的交易日时，该评分呈现出显著的上升态势。 Amit Das LSEG新闻数据和API业务 探究在非常规交易时段公布的季度收益报告是怎样引发股价大幅变动的。 剖析收益报告披露后新闻报道量的大幅增长态势，并研究其与股票估值的相关性。 探索如何借助新闻情绪来预测收益报告披露后的价格变动趋势，进而挖掘具有价值的交易机会。 理解和管理波动性是交易和投资组合管理中的关键环节。波动性作为衡量业绩最常用指标——夏普比率公式 的重要组成部分，其重要性不言而喻。实际上，近年来市场对波动性的担忧持续升温。VIX指数是追踪市场 波动性的关键指数之一。可以看出，2020年是一个明显的转折点，自此美国市场的波动性呈上升态势。 2020年至今，VIX指数的平均收盘价约为21.7美元，较2015 至 2020年的平均收盘价涨幅超过40%。这种上 升态势并非仅由过去几年中那些我们期望仅出现一次的极端事件所驱动。深入 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that hedge funds are more likely to withdraw from key markets during periods of stress, which can lead to increased volatility [1] Group 2 - The statement highlights the potential impact of hedge fund behavior on market stability, particularly during challenging economic conditions [1] - It suggests that the actions of hedge funds can exacerbate market fluctuations, raising concerns for investors and regulators alike [1]

Core Insights - The Bank of Canada warns that U.S. policies are unpredictable in the short term, which may increase market volatility [1] - In extreme cases, volatility could lead to disruptions in market functionality [1] - Prolonged trade wars are expected to heighten the risk of debt defaults [1]

开云集团CFO：我们对美国市场仍然非常谨慎，市场波动性很高。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of zero-day options on market volatility, particularly in the context of recent market turmoil driven by trade policy concerns [1][2][4] - The VIX index surged to its highest level since 2020, indicating extreme market volatility, while the trading volume of zero-day options related to the S&P 500 reached 8.5 million contracts in April, a 23% increase since the beginning of the year [1][2] - Analysts express mixed opinions on the role of zero-day options in driving volatility, with some attributing the recent spikes primarily to external factors such as Trump's tariff policies, while others suggest that the popularity of these options has exacerbated market fluctuations [3][4] Group 2 - The intraday volatility of the S&P 500 reached 44%, surpassing levels seen during the pandemic and approaching those during the 2008 financial crisis, with zero-day options playing a significant role in this volatility [2] - Concerns have been raised by investors, including Bill Ackman, regarding the potential risks posed by zero-day options in an already volatile trading environment, suggesting that these instruments may threaten market stability [2] - Research indicates that since the introduction of zero-day options in 2022, intraday volatility has increased by 24.5%, highlighting the potential influence of these short-term, speculative financial products on market dynamics [4]