Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on January 19, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% to close at 4114.00 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%. However, the ChiNext Index fell by 0.70% [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.73 trillion yuan, with 3526 stocks rising across the market [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 4114.00, up 12.09 points, 0.29% increase, trading volume of 1.19 trillion yuan [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 14294.05, up 12.97 points, 0.09% increase, trading volume of 1.52 trillion yuan [2] - ChiNext Index: 3337.61, down 23.41 points, 0.70% decrease, trading volume of 709.2 billion yuan [2] - The overall A-share index (Wande All A) rose by 0.41% to 6798.66, with a trading volume of 2.73 trillion yuan [2] Sector Highlights - The electric power equipment sector was notably active, with several stocks such as Double Jet Electric, Yinen Power, and China West Electric hitting the daily limit [2] - The State Grid announced a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, representing a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, focusing on the construction of a new power system [3] - The demand for electricity equipment is expected to rise due to the increasing global AI data center electricity consumption, providing multiple supports for the sector [3] Gold Sector Performance - The gold sector experienced a collective surge, with stocks like Zhaojin Gold and Sichuan Gold hitting the daily limit. International gold and silver prices reached historical highs, with gold surpassing 4690 USD per ounce and silver exceeding 94 USD per ounce [3] - Domestic gold jewelry brands are also reporting prices at historical highs [3] Other Sector Movements - The oil and petrochemical, aerospace, and ice and snow tourism sectors saw significant gains, while sectors such as semiconductors, internet, cultural media, and AI experienced declines [4]

截至2026年1月19日 13:35，碳中和ETF泰康(560560)上涨1.04%，跟踪指数中证内地低碳经济主题指数 (000977)上涨0.69%，成分股迈为股份上涨7.57%，福斯特上涨7.01%，特变电工上涨5.91%，金风科技上 涨3.59%，科达利上涨2.97%。 消息面上，根据国家能源局最新数据显示，2025年我国全社会用电量历史性突破10万亿千瓦时，达到 10.4万亿千瓦时，同比增长5%。机构普遍预测，"十五五"期间，我国全社会用电量年均增速在4.2%至 5.6%之间。若GDP年均增长5%，按电力弹性系数测算，全社会用电量增速约为5.5%，到2030年有望突 破13万亿千瓦时。 根据我国新一轮国家自主贡献目标，到2035年，我国非化石能源消费占能源消费总量的比重达到30%以 上，风电和太阳能发电总装机容量达到2020年的6倍以上、力争达到36亿千瓦。为了应对新能源大规模 并网以及数字经济和新型技术发展对电能质量需求的提高，电网投资将大幅加码。近日国家电网宣 布，"十五五"期间固定资产投资预计达4万亿元，较"十四五"时期增长40%，将重点投向科技创新与新 型电力系统建设。 国信证券认为，电网4万 ...

Market Performance - The public utility sector increased by 0.1% as of January 16, outperforming the broader market, with the electricity sector rising by 0.20% and the gas sector declining by 1.17% [2][8]. Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port rose by 1 CNY/ton week-on-week, reaching 697 CNY/ton as of January 16. Meanwhile, Indonesian coal prices fell by 5.71 CNY/ton to 735.71 CNY/ton, and Australian coal prices decreased by 6.53 CNY/ton to 740.51 CNY/ton [3]. - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 150,000 tons week-on-week, totaling 5.5 million tons as of January 16. Inland power plants' daily coal consumption rose by 96,000 tons/day to 4.147 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.37% [3]. - The outflow from the Three Gorges Dam increased by 19.22% year-on-year and 23.55% week-on-week, reaching 9,180 cubic meters/second as of January 16 [4]. Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai was 3,854 CNY/ton as of January 15, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.29% but a year-on-year decrease of 13.53% [5]. - The European TTF spot price rose by 18.6% week-on-week to 11.4 USD/million BTU, while the US HH spot price increased by 2.8% to 2.95 USD/million BTU [5]. - Domestic natural gas consumption in November was 36.280 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, with production at 21.880 billion cubic meters, up 5.9% year-on-year [6]. Key Industry News - The State Grid Corporation plans to invest 4 trillion CNY in fixed assets during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on green transformation and enhancing grid functionality [7]. - Multiple provinces have highlighted natural gas as a key strategic energy source in their 14th Five-Year Plans, emphasizing its role in connecting traditional and new energy systems without setting consumption caps [7]. Investment Recommendations - The electricity sector is expected to see profit improvements and value reassessment due to ongoing supply-demand tensions, with a focus on coal power companies like Guodian Power and Huaneng International [8]. - The natural gas sector is anticipated to benefit from stable margins in city gas businesses and opportunities for traders with low-cost long-term gas sources [8].

"十四五"期间，该公司新建220千伏变电站1座，扩建220千伏变电站1座，新扩建110千伏变电站6座，累 计新增变电容量103万千伏安，新型电力系统建设接续推进。2025年以来，该公司以高弹性电网建设支 撑电网资源深度挖潜，打造智能坚强电网应对台风频繁侵袭、负荷屡创新高等挑战，全面开展状态检 修、集中检修和带电作业，供电可靠性达99.9944%，电网供电能力和供电可靠性稳步提升。 1月8日，国网浙江玉环供电公司数据显示，在刚刚过去的2025年，玉环市全社会用电量达77.37亿千瓦 时，同比增长9.59%，全社会最高负荷达164.66万千瓦，同比增长10.93%，均为历史新高。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [2]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment is mixed, with domestic policies aimed at boosting demand and liquidity, while external factors like the US Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook are causing caution in the market [7]. - The aluminum market is experiencing a seasonal inventory accumulation, driven by high prices and reduced downstream purchasing willingness [8]. - Long-term prospects for the aluminum industry remain positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases, leading to a sustained high level of industry activity [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of January 16, 2026, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $3,134.0 per ton, down $2.0 from the previous week but up $530.0 year-on-year, reflecting a 20.4% increase [25]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 23,925.0 CNY per ton, down 405.0 CNY week-on-week but up 3,740.0 CNY year-on-year, indicating an 18.5% increase [25]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is 24,000.0 CNY per ton, down 60.0 CNY week-on-week but up 4,040.0 CNY year-on-year, a 20.2% increase [25]. 2. Production - In December 2025, the aluminum production reached 3.781 million tons, an increase of 144,000 tons month-on-month and 197,000 tons year-on-year, marking a 5.5% increase [55]. - The alumina production for December 2025 was 7.520 million tons, up 80,000 tons month-on-month and 18.1% year-on-year [55]. 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.77 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 11.4 [6]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 1.28 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 14.1 [6]. - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.56 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 12.2 [6]. - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 0.92 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 14.4 [6]. - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.07 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 15.7 [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6]. Core Views - The National Grid's planned fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period represents a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, marking a historical high. This investment will focus on the construction of a new power system, including smart grid and energy storage, which is expected to benefit the company significantly [3][4][9]. - The company is expected to focus on smart grid and new electrochemical energy storage businesses, which are projected to thrive due to the high demand in these sectors. Profit forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 260 million, 640 million, and 830 million yuan, respectively, indicating a turnaround from losses and growth rates of +149% and +30% year-on-year [3][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Overview - The National Grid's investment will primarily target the intelligent transformation of distribution networks and the construction of new energy storage and regulation capabilities [3][9]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the high growth potential in the smart grid and energy storage sectors, with a focus on these areas since 2023 [3][9]. Financial Forecasts - The company's profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 260 million, 640 million, and 830 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 52.1, 20.9, and 16.1 times [3][9]. - The company is expected to achieve a turnaround in profitability, with significant year-on-year growth anticipated [3][9].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 4 trillion yuan investment by the State Grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan period marks a significant increase of 40% compared to the previous plan, indicating a historic peak in investment aimed at technological innovation and the construction of a new power system [1][5]. Investment Plans - The State Grid's investment plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan is set at 4 trillion yuan, while the Southern Power Grid plans to invest 175 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a synchronized increase in investment from both major grid companies [5]. - The combined investment plans suggest that China's grid investment scale may reach an average of 1 trillion yuan annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5]. Focus Areas of Investment - The 4 trillion yuan will primarily focus on technological innovation and the construction of a new power system, with an expected annual increase of 20 million kilowatts in installed capacity for wind and solar energy [6]. - The investment aims to enhance the system's adjustment capabilities, optimize the layout of pumped storage stations, and support the large-scale development of new energy storage [6]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the electric grid equipment ETF saw an opening increase of over 6%, closing with a 2.05% gain, with several stocks reaching their daily limit [3][4]. Industry Opportunities - The 4 trillion yuan investment is expected to create a ripple effect across the entire industry chain, benefiting five major sectors including ultra-high voltage, main network equipment, and distribution network upgrades [8]. - The ultra-high voltage sector is highlighted as a key focus, with significant projects already underway and more expected to be approved in the coming years [8]. Future Demand - The demand for grid upgrades is driven by the increasing electricity demand, projected to grow by over 40% globally by 2035, alongside a doubling of electricity consumption from artificial intelligence [7]. - The investment in distribution networks is also emphasized, with a focus on smart upgrades and the anticipated release of demand for primary and secondary equipment [9].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月16日 科陆电子（002121.SZ） 国网"十五五"计划投资 4 万亿元，公司智能电网及储能业务有望受益 公司研究·公司快评 电力设备·电网设备 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520080003 事项： 国家电网宣布"十五五"期间固定资产投资预计达 4 万亿元，较"十四五"增长 40%，创历史新高，重点 投向新型电力系统建设。"十五五"期间，国家电网将初步建成主干电网、配电网和智能微电网协同的新 型电网平台；加快推进城市、农村、边远地区配网建设，探索末端保供型、离网型微电网模式；夯实数智 基础设施，实施"人工智能+"专项行动，强化电网数字赋能。此外，国家电网将提升系统调节能力，优 化抽蓄站点布局，支持新型储能规模化发展，提高新能源运行支撑和并网消纳水平。 国信电新观点：国家电网"十五五"期间 4 万亿投资是我国能源转型和新型电力系统建设的关键举措，重 点投资方向包括配电网智能化改造、新型储能与调节能力建设等。2023 年以来科陆电子聚焦智能电网与新 型电化学储 ...

每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 消息面来看，国家电网1月15日宣布，"十五五"期间公司固定资产投资预计达到4万亿元，较"十四 五"投资增长40%，用于新型电力系统建设。 1月16日早盘，电网设备强势领涨，存储芯片板块再度走强。聚焦科创+创业板龙头的科创创业 50ETF（159783）盘中一度涨超1%，在主要宽基中涨幅靠前。 科创创业50ETF跟踪中证科创创业50指数，聚焦通信、芯片、电池、逆变器等细分领域，有望受益 于电力、芯片等板块热度的催化；中微公司、晶盛机电、阳光电源、江波龙、晶合集成等今日早盘领 涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing accelerated rotation of hotspots, with a significant surge in the electric grid sector following a slowdown in AI applications and commercial aerospace [1][2]. Group 1: Electric Grid Sector Performance - Electric grid equipment, ultra-high voltage, smart grid, and power sectors saw a comprehensive rise on Friday [3]. - Notable stocks such as Electric Science Institute, Hancable, and others reached their daily limit up [4]. - Key stock performance includes: - Electric Science Institute: 20% increase, market cap of 61.13 billion [5] - Xigao Institute: 19.17% increase, market cap of 79.11 billion [5] - Hongxiang Co.: 14.97% increase, market cap of 82.02 billion [5]. Group 2: Investment in Electric Grid - The State Grid Corporation announced a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan [6]. - This investment will focus on green transformation, technological innovation, and the construction of new power systems [6][8]. - The investment scale during the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans was approximately 2.64 trillion and 2.85 trillion yuan, respectively [7]. Group 3: Future Projections - The average annual investment in the electric grid during the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to reach 1 trillion yuan, with the total investment from both the State Grid and Southern Grid projected to be 5 trillion yuan [9][10]. - By 2026, investments from the State Grid and Southern Grid are anticipated to reach 700 billion and 189 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 7.6% and 8.0% [11]. Group 4: Global Electric Power Demand - The global electricity demand is expected to grow by over 40% by 2035, with data centers projected to consume significant amounts of electricity [16]. - Renewable energy sources are expected to account for nearly 55% of power generation, with solar and wind energy making up over 50% of new electricity [17]. - Global electricity and grid investments are forecasted to reach new highs, with a CAGR of 8% and 5% from 2025 to 2035 [17]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Concerns about power supply in the U.S. have been raised, with warnings of potential doubling of power outages by 2030 [18][19]. - Tesla's CEO highlighted that China's power supply advantages could lead to a significant lead in AI computing capabilities [21]. - The overseas market for electric grid investments is expected to accelerate, with Chinese companies poised for growth in this sector [23].