Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of key economic indicators in the U.S. and Canada, including initial jobless claims, the quarterly labor cost index for Q2, monthly personal spending, and the core PCE price index for both month-over-month and year-over-year changes [1] - The data release is expected to provide insights into the current economic conditions and potential trends in labor costs and consumer spending, which are critical for assessing economic health [1] - The Canadian GDP monthly rate for May is also set to be published, which will contribute to understanding the economic performance in Canada [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices (XAU/USD) experienced a technical rebound during the Asian trading session, stabilizing above the 100-day moving average after a significant drop [1][3] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fifth consecutive time, keeping the policy range at 4.25%-4.50%, despite pressure for rate cuts [1][3] - Strong economic data, including a 104,000 increase in private sector employment and a 3.0% annualized GDP growth rate for Q2, has bolstered the dollar [3][4] Group 2 - The market is focused on the core PCE price index, which is expected to provide direct guidance for the dollar and gold prices [3][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are supported at the 100-day moving average (around $3,270), with a key resistance level at $3,310 [3][4] - If the core PCE index exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the dollar and put further pressure on gold prices [6]

美国第二季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值为2.5%，预期2.3%，前值3.50%。美国二季度个人消费支 出(PCE)年化季环比初值为1.4%，预期1.5%，前值0.5%。 ...

每经AI快讯，美国第二季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值为2.5%，预期2.3%，前值3.50%。 ...

美国第二季度核心PCE物价指数年率初值 2.7%，前值2.8%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. government's "reciprocal tariff" policy, highlighting the unexpected expansion of the trade deficit and the potential economic consequences as the deadline for trade negotiations approaches [1][4][11]. Trade Data Summary - As of May, the U.S. goods trade deficit unexpectedly widened to $96.6 billion, exceeding market expectations of $86.1 billion, marking the highest trade deficit for the first five months of the year in history [2][5]. - The trade deficit has been primarily driven by a 5.2% decline in U.S. goods exports, which fell to $179.2 billion, the largest drop since the pandemic began [6]. - In contrast, some countries, such as Vietnam and Thailand, saw their exports to the U.S. surge by approximately 35%, reaching historical highs [6]. Economic Impact - The U.S. economy experienced its first contraction since 2022, with a GDP decline of 0.5% on an annualized basis, attributed to increased imports and decreased government spending [3][14]. - The first quarter saw imports rise by 37.9%, the fastest growth since 2020, negatively impacting GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points [14]. - The core PCE price index rose by 2.68% year-on-year in May, surpassing expectations and reaching its highest level since February 2025 [14]. Trade Negotiation Status - The U.S. has only reached a trade agreement with the UK, which remains largely a framework with many details yet to be finalized [8]. - Negotiations with other major trading partners, including Japan and India, have stalled, with concerns over potential additional tariffs hindering progress [8][9]. - The U.S. government has requested trade partners to submit their best offers amid slow negotiation progress, indicating urgency in reaching agreements [10]. Employment and Economic Risks - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating increasing job market challenges [15]. - The credit card delinquency rate reached 3.05%, the highest since 2011, while housing market pressures are mounting due to affordability and inventory issues [15]. - The World Bank forecasts a global economic growth rate of 2.3% for 2025, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis, reflecting widespread economic weakness [15].

Core Insights - The core PCE price index in the U.S. for May recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, surpassing the expected 2.6%, marking the highest level since February 2025 [1] - The month-on-month core PCE price index for May was reported at 0.2%, with market expectations previously set at 0.1% [1]

Group 1 - The core PCE price index in the US for May increased by 0.2%, surpassing the expected increase of 0.1% and matching the previous value of 0.1% [1] - Year-on-year, the core PCE price index for May grew by 2.68%, slightly above the expected growth of 2.6% [1]

Core Insights - The core PCE price index for May in the U.S. is reported at an annual rate of 2.7%, which is above the expected rate of 2.60% and an upward revision from the previous value of 2.50% to 2.6% [1] Economic Indicators - The current core PCE price index indicates inflationary pressures that may influence monetary policy decisions [1] - The increase from the previous value suggests a trend of rising inflation, which could impact consumer spending and overall economic growth [1]

Core Insights - The core PCE price index in the U.S. for May increased by 2.68% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.6% and up from the previous value of 2.5% [1] Economic Indicators - The current core PCE price index reflects a rising inflation trend, indicating potential implications for monetary policy and consumer spending [1] - The increase from the previous value suggests a continued upward pressure on prices, which may influence investor sentiment and market dynamics [1]