来源：南篱论金 2025.10.02 周四 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 开个玩笑，毕竟今天我看到热搜上说，阿川聚集高级将领是为了解决关于纪律要求。乜啊？这战忽局是不是新建立的，要忽悠也该有个度，你可 以说是为了检验忠诚度，对驴那边发起冲击，那我就信一下好吧。 再坚持一天我就放假啦哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈 | 3.25%-3.50% | | | 41.4% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 89.0% | 52.7% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 99.4% | 11.0% | 5.9% | | 4.00%-4.25%(当前利率) | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | | 4.25%-4.50% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% 10 | 人在公司，皱眉看现在的基本面乱局，感觉川字纹都多了一条。不是，这个世界越看越像一个巨大的草台班子。 来吧，还没有开始利率决议，已经可以开始押注了呢。至于老美关门多少天，不晓得啊不晓得，这玩意儿谁能算出来呢，要不问一问自己的信 仰？ 以及，对于明天是否有非农呢，大概率是没有的。但是有人不死心 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of key economic indicators in the U.S. and Canada, including initial jobless claims, the quarterly labor cost index for Q2, monthly personal spending, and the core PCE price index for both month-over-month and year-over-year changes [1] - The data release is expected to provide insights into the current economic conditions and potential trends in labor costs and consumer spending, which are critical for assessing economic health [1] - The Canadian GDP monthly rate for May is also set to be published, which will contribute to understanding the economic performance in Canada [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for June, as well as average hourly earnings month-over-month and year-over-year, May trade balance, and last week's initial jobless claims data are set to be released shortly [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the upcoming release of key economic indicators, including initial jobless claims, May durable goods orders month-over-month, final value of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures quarter-over-quarter, real GDP, and core PCE price index annualized quarter-over-quarter [1] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims data from the previous week will be published shortly [1] - May durable goods orders will be reported on a month-over-month basis [1] - The final value of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures will be released, reflecting quarter-over-quarter changes [1] - Real GDP figures will also be disclosed, providing insights into economic growth [1] - The core PCE price index annualized quarter-over-quarter will be included, which is a key measure of inflation [1]

Core Insights - The initial jobless claims data indicates a stable labor market, alleviating concerns about immediate economic distress [1] - The number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits has reached a new cycle high, which may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate [1] Labor Market Analysis - The ongoing rise in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits suggests a potential upward trend in the unemployment rate [1] - The data on continuing claims is closely related to the non-farm payroll survey week, highlighting its significance in labor market assessments [1]