11月19日资讯分享 周二，现货黄金先跌后涨，盘中一度下破4000美元大关，随后迅速反弹，在ADP周度数据公布后进一步 回升，最终收涨0.54%，报4067.51美元/盎司； 随着交易员正在权衡西方制裁对俄罗斯石油供应的影响，国际原油震荡走高。WTI原油站上60美元关 口，最终收涨1.39%，报60.57美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收涨1.18%，报64.46美元/桶。 美联储——①川普暗示美联储主席人选已定，抱怨解雇鲍威尔遭人阻拦。 ②巴尔金：同意鲍威尔的观点，12月降息并非板上钉钉，通胀和就业均面临风险。 ADP周度就业报告：截至11月1日的四周里，私人部门雇主平均每周减少2500个就业岗位。 美国公布部分初请数据：多数被上修；10月18日当周首次申请失业金人数为23.2万人。 美国新一批数据发布时间敲定，涉CFTC周报、PPI等，周四将补全停摆期间的初请失业金数据。 日本央行行长表示，仍在逐步调整货币宽松力度，表明加息意图坚定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market situation is perceived as chaotic, with uncertainties surrounding upcoming economic data and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3][4]. Economic Data and Federal Reserve - There is speculation about the delay of non-farm payroll data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 30 [3]. - The current interest rate is between 4.00%-4.25%, with a significant probability of a rate cut being anticipated [5]. Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The market is currently experiencing volatility, with a focus on the resistance level around 3894, and a potential breakout could lead to further upward movement [7]. - The trading range is noted to be between 3852 and 3870, indicating a period of accumulation by institutional investors [7].

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of key economic indicators in the U.S. and Canada, including initial jobless claims, the quarterly labor cost index for Q2, monthly personal spending, and the core PCE price index for both month-over-month and year-over-year changes [1] - The data release is expected to provide insights into the current economic conditions and potential trends in labor costs and consumer spending, which are critical for assessing economic health [1] - The Canadian GDP monthly rate for May is also set to be published, which will contribute to understanding the economic performance in Canada [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for June, as well as average hourly earnings month-over-month and year-over-year, May trade balance, and last week's initial jobless claims data are set to be released shortly [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the upcoming release of key economic indicators, including initial jobless claims, May durable goods orders month-over-month, final value of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures quarter-over-quarter, real GDP, and core PCE price index annualized quarter-over-quarter [1] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims data from the previous week will be published shortly [1] - May durable goods orders will be reported on a month-over-month basis [1] - The final value of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures will be released, reflecting quarter-over-quarter changes [1] - Real GDP figures will also be disclosed, providing insights into economic growth [1] - The core PCE price index annualized quarter-over-quarter will be included, which is a key measure of inflation [1]

Core Insights - The initial jobless claims data indicates a stable labor market, alleviating concerns about immediate economic distress [1] - The number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits has reached a new cycle high, which may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate [1] Labor Market Analysis - The ongoing rise in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits suggests a potential upward trend in the unemployment rate [1] - The data on continuing claims is closely related to the non-farm payroll survey week, highlighting its significance in labor market assessments [1]