Core Viewpoint - London's main stock indexes experienced a significant decline on Friday, driven by concerns over technology valuations and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, leading to anticipated weekly losses [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The decline in London's stock indexes indicates a broader market reaction to rising concerns regarding tech valuations [1] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has contributed to the volatility in global markets, impacting investor sentiment [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Defence shares saw a decrease amid indications of potential progress toward peace in Ukraine, suggesting a shift in investor focus [1]

黄金（XAU/USD）在避险情绪的支持下，从3930美元的低点反弹，稳步攀升至3970美元。尽管未能突 破4000美元大关，但全球股市暴跌及地缘政治不确定性为黄金提供了支撑。特别是随着市场对人工智能 泡沫的担忧，避险资金大量流入黄金。然而，由于美联储的鹰派立场与市场降息预期的减弱，黄金的上 涨空间受限。目前金价在3970美元附近整理，短期内仍受到强势美元和市场谨慎情绪的制约。尽管如 此，地缘政治紧张局势和美国政府停摆为黄金提供了支撑。 今日投资者应重点关注北京时间21:15公布的ADP就业数据与23:00的ISM服务业PMI数据。美元可能在 强势区间内震荡整理，而金价则需要关注3970至4000美元区间的表现。若ADP数据疲弱，黄金有望反 弹；若数据强劲，美元可能维持上攻态势。投资者应关注美联储官员的后续言论与美国政府停摆的进 展，这些因素将继续影响市场情绪。 美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）将在北京时间周三21:15公布10月就业数据。市场普遍预期，美国私营 部门将新增2.4万个岗位，扭转9月的3.2万个岗位减少。由于政府停摆导致JOLTS与非农数据推迟，ADP 报告的重要性大幅上升。分析师指出，若就业数据超 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic uncertainties due to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical tensions have led to a rise in gold prices, while the dollar's retreat from previous highs has provided additional support for gold [1][2] Group 1: Economic Factors - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown may reach historic highs, with ongoing deadlock between Democrats and Republicans affecting economic stability [1] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance limits the dollar's further decline, which in turn suppresses gold's upward potential [1][2] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are around 65%, impacting gold prices negatively [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Resistance levels for gold are identified at $4025 (200-hour moving average) and $4045-$4046, with a potential breakthrough leading to a rebound towards the $4100 mark [1] - Support levels for gold are noted at approximately $3963-$3952, with further attention on $3940 and potential declines to the $3910-$3900 range [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Increased safe-haven demand and geopolitical risks are expected to support gold's short-term performance, despite pressures from the Federal Reserve's stance and dollar performance [2] - Investors are advised to remain cautious and observe developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown, Federal Reserve communications, and global risk events that may influence gold's short-term trends [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices have continued to rise, breaking the psychological barrier of $4000, supported by increased market demand for safe-haven assets due to President Trump's statements and ongoing government shutdown concerns [1][3] - Trump's comments regarding the restriction of high-end AI hardware exports to China have dampened expectations for easing US-China trade tensions, further boosting safe-haven demand for gold [1] - The ongoing government shutdown, now entering its 33rd day, has heightened concerns about potential economic impacts, contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has strengthened the US dollar, which in turn limits further increases in gold prices [2] - Recent technical analysis indicates that gold is maintaining support near the 100-hour moving average, with potential upward targets if it breaks through the $4045-$4050 range [2] - Investors are advised to monitor upcoming economic data, such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI, and Federal Reserve officials' comments, as these will significantly influence gold price movements [2][3]

Group 1: Gold Futures Performance - As of November 3, the Shanghai gold futures main contract is priced at 922.58 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.47%. The opening price was 924.60 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 927.28 CNY and a low of 911.18 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau is set to release the September CPI data, which is expected to significantly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy following the government shutdown [1] - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, but the hawkish stance of Chairman Powell has strengthened the U.S. dollar index, leading to a decrease in global market risk appetite. Additionally, China's October manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations, indicating a marginal weakening below the growth line [1] - The short-term outlook for gold prices is expected to remain volatile at high levels, while silver is seen as having valuation advantages and is likely to experience a rebound after a short-term decline [1] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Last week, gold prices faced downward pressure due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and easing trade tensions. However, the expectation of continued interest rate cuts and the risk of a government shutdown have maintained a strong market sentiment for safe-haven assets, supporting a rebound in gold prices [2] - Technically, after hitting a low, gold futures have started to rebound, but they are currently under pressure from the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. The MACD indicator shows a downward trend, although the decline in the green histogram has slowed down, indicating high volatility in AU2512 [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global financial markets continue to experience volatility driven by multiple macro factors, including a strengthening dollar, pressure on gold prices, and uncertainties surrounding trade and central bank policies [1] - The dollar index approached 99.70, reflecting increased market confidence in the U.S. economy, supported by hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve and high Treasury yields [1][3] - The euro declined over 0.4% due to weak European economic conditions and expectations of monetary easing, while the Japanese yen fell to a yearly low against the dollar, raising concerns about potential policy intervention [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices struggled to maintain support above $4000, facing pressure from a strong dollar and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with limited upward movement observed [2] - Despite a brief rebound due to safe-haven buying, overall momentum for gold remains weak as the attractiveness of non-yielding assets diminishes with cooling rate cut expectations [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Signals - The Federal Reserve's policy stance remains a focal point, with recent speeches from officials indicating a general hawkish tone despite some divergence in views on future interest rate paths [3] - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased from 90% to below 70%, with expectations that the Fed will maintain a tightening policy to curb inflation [3] Group 4: U.S.-China Trade Relations - U.S.-China trade relations are a key market focus, with recent negotiations showing some positive signals, but significant differences remain in critical areas, leading to a decline in market optimism [4] - Investor concerns about the uncertainty in trade progress may pose risks to economic recovery, affecting risk appetite in the market [4] Group 5: European and Japanese Policy Stances - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates at its October meeting, emphasizing no premature policy commitments, which has led to increased uncertainty regarding future monetary policy direction [5] - Japan's new government reiterated the importance of stable exchange rates, with officials closely monitoring market dynamics amid concerns over yen depreciation [5] Group 6: Global Stock Market Performance - Global stock indices generally rose, with U.S. major indices continuing their upward trend, particularly driven by strong performance in the technology sector, exemplified by Nvidia reaching a new historical high [6] - Despite the strong dollar and hawkish Fed stance potentially limiting some gains, overall risk appetite appears to be improving, with investors focusing on upcoming U.S. economic data for insights into future growth trends [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations due to mixed signals from economic data and central bank policies, with the yen showing strength but lacking strong bullish momentum [1][2] - Tokyo's inflation data has accelerated, raising expectations for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to tighten monetary policy, yet uncertainty remains regarding the timing of potential rate hikes due to anticipated fiscal stimulus measures from the government [1][2] - The recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has diminished demand for the yen as a safe-haven currency, while the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance continues to support the dollar [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that the USD/JPY exchange rate is stabilizing above the 153.30 level, which has turned into a support zone, indicating potential for short-term upward movement [3] - A breakthrough above the 154.80 area could lead to further gains towards the psychological level of 155.00, while a drop below 154.00 would focus attention on support levels between 153.25 and 153.00 [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices showed weak performance today with little change in open interest. After the October FOMC meeting, the Fed's hawkish stance reduced market expectations for a December rate cut, causing the US dollar index to rebound and putting pressure on copper prices. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly on Thursday, and downstream market sentiment was cautious. After the China-US summit, the relaxation of mutual tariff policies may improve the macro environment. Continued attention should be paid to the support of the 5-day moving average [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices fluctuated weakly today. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, the macro environment was weak, but aluminum prices were relatively resilient. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly on Thursday, providing support for aluminum prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [5]. - **Nickel**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel increased while prices declined today. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, the macro environment was weak, and nickel prices continued to fall. The weakness in the industrial sector led investors to prefer short positions in nickel to hedge long positions in non-ferrous metals. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 yuan mark [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On October 30, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 192,200 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons from Monday. Goldman Sachs believes that even considering a significant decline in global refined copper production, the copper market will experience a slight supply surplus in 2026, consistent with its forecast of a copper price of $10,500 per ton in 2026 [8]. - **Aluminum**: On October 30, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 605,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from Monday [8]. - **Nickel**: On October 30, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel ranged from 120,800 to 123,600 yuan per ton, with an average price of 122,200 yuan per ton, an increase of 300 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,450 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brands of electrowon nickel ranged from -200 to 100 yuan per ton [9]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][11][12]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel monthly spread, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][39].

Core Insights - The Indian Rupee has depreciated against the US Dollar, falling below 88.50, marking a new low since October 14 due to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve [1] Currency Impact - The depreciation of the Indian Rupee is a direct response to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which is perceived as aggressive [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October aligns with market expectations, but Chairman Powell's hawkish comments indicate that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, suggesting a growing internal consensus to pause rate cuts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.0%, still above the estimated neutral rate of 3.5%, indicating that monetary policy remains relatively tight [5]. - Two officials opposed the rate cut: one advocated for a 50 basis point cut, while another preferred to maintain the current rate, highlighting increasing internal divisions within the Fed [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Employment growth is slowing, with initial jobless claims and private sector indicators showing a deceleration, but there is no sign of a rapid decline in the labor market [4]. - Inflation remains significantly above the Fed's target, with the PCE inflation rate estimated at 2.8% in September, up from 2.7% the previous month, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The pace of future rate cuts may slow, potentially shifting from "cutting at every meeting" to "cutting once per quarter," as the Fed approaches the neutral rate and inflation remains stubbornly high [5]. - The effectiveness of rate cuts is expected to be limited due to a diminished refinancing effect, as many homeowners locked in low rates in 2021, reducing the incentive for refinancing [5]. Group 4: Quantitative Tightening - The Fed announced it will end quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, stopping the reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings and rolling over maturing principal, while continuing to limit MBS reductions [6]. - The decision to end QT is seen as a technical adjustment to address liquidity concerns and manage the average duration of its asset portfolio, reflecting a desire to normalize monetary policy [6].