新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 12月22日，Cleveland联储主席Beth Hammack近期在接受《华尔街日报》采访时表示，美联储可能会在 当前利率水平维持一段时间。EasyMarkets易信认为，Hammack的表态体现了她在美联储内部的鹰派倾 向，尤其是在通胀数据存在不确定性的背景下，她倾向于保持谨慎态度，以防经济过热。Hammack指 出，她的"基本假设"是利率将保持不变，直到通胀明显回落或就业市场出现更显著疲软。 上周公布的CPI数据显示，11月整体通胀率从3.1%骤降至2.7%，核心通胀也出现类似下降。Hammack对 这一数据表示"持保留态度"，并认为数据受到政府停摆期间统计扭曲的影响。EasyMarkets易信分析表 示，若按照Hammack自身的调整计算，实际通胀率可能仍接近2.9%至3.0%，接近经济学家的预测水 平。这表明市场可能低估了美联储维持紧缩政策的意图。 从历史背景来看，Hammack自2024年加入美联储以来，一直被视为最鹰派的成员之一。EasyMarkets易 信认为，她在2026年即将成为FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）有投票权的成员后，她的观点将更直接影 响利 ...

特朗普在采访中将大量篇幅用于表达对美联储的不满。他认为，金融市场已经习惯于担心，每当经济活动或就业数 据强于预期时，美联储就会变得更加鹰派以对抗通胀。 这种"好消息就是坏消息"的市场逻辑令他感到沮丧。 "过去，当有好消息时，市场会上涨……现在，当有好消息时，市场反而下跌。如果消息特别好，市场就会崩盘。" 在采访中，特朗普对当前金融市场的反应逻辑提出质疑，并将此现象归咎于市场对美联储鹰派立场的担忧。 特朗普承认起经济政策效果可能要到明年第二季度才显现，对中期选举前景表示不确定。他猛烈抨击美联储导致"好 消息变坏消息"的市场怪象，威胁不让鹰派人士进入美联储，并力推1%的超低利率目标。同时继续挥舞关税大棒，推 动其政府入股国防等关键产业。 美国总统特朗普对其经济政策能否帮助共和党在明年中期选举中获胜表达了不确定性，同时将股市对利好经济消息 的负面反应归咎于美联储。 据《华尔街日报》上周五在椭圆形办公室对特朗普进行的专访，尽管特朗普在采访中吹嘘自己"创造了历史上最伟大 的经济"，并强调大量资金正涌入美国用于建设汽车工厂和人工智能等项目，但 他承认，这些经济活动的全面效果可 能要到明年第二季度才会显现。 当被问及共和党 ...

London's FTSE 100 held steady on Thursday, as the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman's comments, suggesting a less hawkish stance than anticipated, were met with a global cautious sentiment that limited gains. ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have retreated from historical highs as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, focusing on potential hawkish signals from policymakers [1] Group 1: Market Trends - LME copper prices experienced a decline of 1.7% [1] - Year-to-date, LME copper prices have increased by over 30% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday [1] - Any indications that the pace of rate cuts will slow down in 2026 could negatively impact risk assets, including commodities [1]

美国国债收益率在亚洲交易时段小幅走高，本周市场的关键焦点将是美联储周三的利率决定和预测。 Pepperstone的Michael Brown在一份报告中称："现在需要应对周三美国联邦公开市场委员会决定的事件 风险，任何鹰派迹象都可能对市场情绪造成短期冲击。"不过，这位高级研究策略师表示，美联储的鹰 派立场应被视为买入机会。根据伦敦证券交易所集团的数据，货币市场反映出降息25个基点的可能性为 86%。根据Tradeweb的数据，两年期美国国债收益率上升0.5个基点，至3.567%，而10年期美国国债收 益率小幅上升0.4个基点，至4.142%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - London's main stock indexes experienced a significant decline on Friday, driven by concerns over technology valuations and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, leading to anticipated weekly losses [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The decline in London's stock indexes indicates a broader market reaction to rising concerns regarding tech valuations [1] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has contributed to the volatility in global markets, impacting investor sentiment [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Defence shares saw a decrease amid indications of potential progress toward peace in Ukraine, suggesting a shift in investor focus [1]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of tariffs on certain U.S. agricultural products starting November 10, and the suspension of a 24% tariff on U.S. goods for one year, signaling a positive shift in U.S.-China trade relations [1] - U.S. President Trump indicated plans to initiate a new round of trade negotiations after meeting with Swiss officials, slightly increasing market risk appetite despite ongoing demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The Euro fell over 0.3% to 1.1480, while the British Pound dropped nearly 1% to 1.3010, its lowest point in seven months, influenced by comments from UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves about potential tax increases [1] Group 2 - Gold (XAU/USD) rebounded from a low of $3930 to $3970, supported by safe-haven demand amid global stock market declines and geopolitical uncertainties, although it failed to break the $4000 mark [2] - The upcoming ADP employment data is expected to show an addition of 24,000 jobs in October, reversing a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, making the report increasingly significant due to the government shutdown delaying other employment data [2] - If the ADP data exceeds expectations, it could reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and boost the U.S. dollar; conversely, weak data may lead to renewed bets on a Fed rate cut in December [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is consolidating above the 100 mark, with resistance levels at 100.25, 100.55, and 101.25, while support levels are at 99.55 and 98.90 [3] - Gold's short-term support is at $3970 and $3940, with key resistance at $4000 and $4035; a weak ADP report could push gold above $4000, attracting bullish sentiment [3] - Investors are advised to focus on the ADP employment data and ISM services PMI data, as these will influence market sentiment and the performance of both the dollar and gold [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic uncertainties due to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical tensions have led to a rise in gold prices, while the dollar's retreat from previous highs has provided additional support for gold [1][2] Group 1: Economic Factors - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown may reach historic highs, with ongoing deadlock between Democrats and Republicans affecting economic stability [1] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance limits the dollar's further decline, which in turn suppresses gold's upward potential [1][2] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are around 65%, impacting gold prices negatively [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Resistance levels for gold are identified at $4025 (200-hour moving average) and $4045-$4046, with a potential breakthrough leading to a rebound towards the $4100 mark [1] - Support levels for gold are noted at approximately $3963-$3952, with further attention on $3940 and potential declines to the $3910-$3900 range [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Increased safe-haven demand and geopolitical risks are expected to support gold's short-term performance, despite pressures from the Federal Reserve's stance and dollar performance [2] - Investors are advised to remain cautious and observe developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown, Federal Reserve communications, and global risk events that may influence gold's short-term trends [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices have continued to rise, breaking the psychological barrier of $4000, supported by increased market demand for safe-haven assets due to President Trump's statements and ongoing government shutdown concerns [1][3] - Trump's comments regarding the restriction of high-end AI hardware exports to China have dampened expectations for easing US-China trade tensions, further boosting safe-haven demand for gold [1] - The ongoing government shutdown, now entering its 33rd day, has heightened concerns about potential economic impacts, contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has strengthened the US dollar, which in turn limits further increases in gold prices [2] - Recent technical analysis indicates that gold is maintaining support near the 100-hour moving average, with potential upward targets if it breaks through the $4045-$4050 range [2] - Investors are advised to monitor upcoming economic data, such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI, and Federal Reserve officials' comments, as these will significantly influence gold price movements [2][3]

Group 1: Gold Futures Performance - As of November 3, the Shanghai gold futures main contract is priced at 922.58 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.47%. The opening price was 924.60 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 927.28 CNY and a low of 911.18 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau is set to release the September CPI data, which is expected to significantly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy following the government shutdown [1] - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, but the hawkish stance of Chairman Powell has strengthened the U.S. dollar index, leading to a decrease in global market risk appetite. Additionally, China's October manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations, indicating a marginal weakening below the growth line [1] - The short-term outlook for gold prices is expected to remain volatile at high levels, while silver is seen as having valuation advantages and is likely to experience a rebound after a short-term decline [1] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Last week, gold prices faced downward pressure due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and easing trade tensions. However, the expectation of continued interest rate cuts and the risk of a government shutdown have maintained a strong market sentiment for safe-haven assets, supporting a rebound in gold prices [2] - Technically, after hitting a low, gold futures have started to rebound, but they are currently under pressure from the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. The MACD indicator shows a downward trend, although the decline in the green histogram has slowed down, indicating high volatility in AU2512 [2]