来源：金都财神A 【消息面】 周四将公布的周度初请失业金数据，将揭示就业市场的最新动态，如果数据强劲，可能强化美联储的鹰派立场，进一步推升美元和收益率，打压 金价；反之，若显示就业放缓，则可能重燃降息预期，支持黄金反弹。 【9.25黄金交易建议】 1，黄金稳健上涨3755-3758美元附近做空单，止损3763美元，止盈看3730-3720美元 2，建议仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎 【黄金行情走势简析】 1，上一个交易日，美元指数大幅上涨，收阳线，利空黄金。欧盘黄金上涨3779.2美元后走势转空，晚间黄金大幅下跌，跌至3717.4美元后触底后 大幅反弹，收在3735.8美元，日线收阴，KDJ指标严重超买后，再次转为了高位死叉，MACD指标红色多头动能缩量，日线走势相对偏空，近期 黄金有望大幅下跌。 2，4小时，黄金早间上涨3751.4美元再次回落，当前运行在3740美元附近。5日10日均线向下，TRIX趋势指标死叉，MACD指标快慢线在高位死 叉，绿色空头动能增量，走势也是偏空。结合日线走势看，黄金日内操作建议上涨做空单为主，上方关注早间高点3751美元以及2小时中轨3758美 元压力。 展望短期，市场的目 ...

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Nasdaq down 0.67%, S&P 500 down 0.24%, and Dow Jones up 0.04% [1] - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Intel leading the drop at approximately 7%, while Google, Tesla, Apple, and Amazon fell over 1% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.33%, with mixed performances among popular Chinese stocks [1] Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting revealed that only two officials supported an interest rate cut, with the majority favoring maintaining the rate at 4.25%-4.50% [2] - Concerns were raised about the labor market, as the July non-farm payroll data showed job additions far below expectations and an increase in the unemployment rate [2] - Historical revisions to previous employment data indicated a reduction of over 250,000 jobs, challenging the narrative of a strong job market [2] Market Reaction to Fed's Stance - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant sell-off, losing approximately $1 trillion in market value over four days due to fears of the Fed's hawkish stance and high valuations in tech stocks [3] - The sell-off was led by tech stocks, with Nvidia and Palantir seeing notable declines, the latter experiencing a cumulative drop of 23.87% since August 12 [3] Diverging Investor Sentiments - Some investors view the market downturn as a buying opportunity, with analysts suggesting that upcoming economic data and Fed Chair Powell's speech could influence market direction [4] - Conversely, other analysts believe that current market valuations are too high, prioritizing profit-taking over risk-taking, indicating a fragile market balance [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, particularly focusing on the performance of major indices and the implications of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1][5][3]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - On Wednesday, major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Nasdaq down 0.67%, the S&P 500 down 0.24%, and the Dow Jones up 0.04% [1]. - Large tech stocks experienced declines, with Intel leading the drop at approximately 7%, while Google, Tesla, Apple, and Amazon fell over 1% [2]. - The S&P 500 index saw a significant sell-off, losing about $1 trillion in market capitalization within four days due to concerns over the Fed's hawkish stance and high valuations in tech stocks [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting revealed that only two officials supported a rate cut, indicating a consensus to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% [3][4]. - The release of disappointing non-farm payroll data shortly after the meeting raised concerns about the labor market, with job additions far below expectations and an increase in the unemployment rate [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investor opinions are divided regarding the recent market downturn, with some viewing it as a buying opportunity, while others believe that high valuations necessitate profit-taking [6][7][9]. - Analysts suggest that the downward potential for tech stocks may be limited due to global central banks easing policies, which could support global equity markets [8]. - However, concerns remain that any disappointing news could disrupt the fragile balance in the market, as current valuations have largely priced in optimistic future scenarios [10].

Group 1 - Gold prices (XAU/USD) experienced a technical rebound during the Asian trading session, stabilizing above the 100-day moving average after a significant drop [1][3] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fifth consecutive time, keeping the policy range at 4.25%-4.50%, despite pressure for rate cuts [1][3] - Strong economic data, including a 104,000 increase in private sector employment and a 3.0% annualized GDP growth rate for Q2, has bolstered the dollar [3][4] Group 2 - The market is focused on the core PCE price index, which is expected to provide direct guidance for the dollar and gold prices [3][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are supported at the 100-day moving average (around $3,270), with a key resistance level at $3,310 [3][4] - If the core PCE index exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the dollar and put further pressure on gold prices [6]

基本面： 除了美联储的鹰派立场，当日公布的美国经济数据也给了黄金多头当头一棒。ADP就业报告显示，7月民间就业岗位增幅超预期，这表明劳动力市场仍具韧 性。更引人注目的是，美国第二季度GDP环比年率增长3.0%，远超预期的2.4%，一扫第一季度萎缩0.5%的阴霾。虽然经济学家指出，这组数据存在"水 分"——进口下降贡献了主要增长，且国内需求增速创两年半新低。但不可否认的是，这些数据整体描绘出的经济图景，削弱了市场对美联储即将宽松的预 期。 整体来看，美元短期走强成为近期金价承压的关键因素，本周强劲的美国经济数据及美联储维持的鹰派立场进一步限制黄金多头，交易者将继续关注晚间 PCE数据及周五非农影响，另外留意有关特朗普关税方面及对美联储方面言论。 周四（7月31日）亚盘时段，现货黄金自隔夜大跌后小幅反弹，但仍受限于隔夜利率决议后压制表现，目前暂交投于3295美元附近。现货黄金周三（7月30 日）下跌一度超过1.5%，盘中最低触及3268.02美元/盎司，创下6月30日以来新低。美联储维持利率不变、鲍威尔鹰派讲话打压降息预期，以及美国公布的 超预期经济数据，共同构成了金价下挫的"完美风暴"。与此同时，美元指数强势上 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Global stock market momentum paused after a record week, primarily due to disappointing earnings reports from European companies like Volkswagen and Puma, alongside rising expectations for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][5] - European markets were the main drag on global sentiment, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index down 0.6% and major indices like Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 also declining [4][5] - The US market remained stable, with the S&P 500 futures showing little change, while the dollar strengthened and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose by one basis point to 4.41% [1][4] Group 2: Automotive Sector Performance - The automotive and parts manufacturing sector's pessimistic earnings outlook was a direct catalyst for the market decline, with Valeo's stock plummeting 12.4% after lowering its annual sales forecast [2] - Volkswagen also downgraded its earnings outlook due to tariff challenges, resulting in a 2.4% drop in its stock price, while its truck subsidiary Traton saw an 8.1% decline [2] - The overall European automotive stock index fell by 1.4%, marking it as the largest contributor to the market's downturn [2] Group 3: Consumer Brands Impact - The weak performance of individual consumer brands, particularly Puma, which saw its stock drop 18.7% after lowering its annual earnings forecast, further exacerbated market pessimism [5] - The overall sentiment in European regional stock markets turned negative, with increased risk aversion among investors [5] Group 4: Federal Reserve Expectations - Prior to the negative news from Europe, the US stock market had been performing well, with the S&P 500 index reaching 10 new highs in 19 trading days, driven by strong earnings and optimism regarding trade agreements [6] - As the Federal Reserve's policy meeting approaches, market sentiment is shifting, with analysts suggesting a greater likelihood of the Fed maintaining a hawkish tone [6][9] - Institutional trading departments, including Goldman Sachs and Citadel Securities, are advising clients to consider hedging strategies to protect against potential market pullbacks [9]

Core Viewpoint - The sentiment in the market shifted as U.S. Treasury yields turned from rising to falling after deeper analysis of newly released economic data, indicating a complex economic outlook despite initial positive indicators [1] Group 1: Economic Data Analysis - Initial jobless claims decreased, and retail sales exceeded expectations, initially leading to an increase in Treasury yields, suggesting strong economic resilience [1] - However, the decrease in jobless claims was influenced by a smaller-than-usual summer shutdown in auto factories, indicating potential underlying weaknesses [1] - Retail sales growth may not be as robust as it appears, with future trends showing risks of weakness according to economic analysts [1]

Core Viewpoint - In the third week of June, international gold prices experienced the largest weekly decline of the year, dropping 2.8% to around $2,280 per ounce, indicating a significant restructuring of the pricing logic for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and easing geopolitical risks [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar index regained support amid adjustments in interest rate expectations, becoming a key factor suppressing gold prices. Futures indicate that traders have pushed back the expected timing of the Fed's first rate cut from September to November, with the steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve pushing the dollar index above 106 [3]. - The substantial decrease in geopolitical risks accelerated profit-taking among gold bulls, particularly after a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, leading to a noticeable contraction in market demand for safe-haven assets [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Changes - The World Gold Council reported a 12% year-on-year decline in global gold jewelry demand in Q2, with weaker-than-expected seasonal purchases in the Indian market. Although central bank gold purchases remained high, China's gold reserve increase slowed to 21 tons in April-May, down from an average of 35 tons per month in Q1 [7]. - The marginal changes in supply and demand dynamics have reinforced the momentum for price adjustments, with institutions beginning to revise gold valuation models. Credit Suisse lowered its year-end gold price forecast from $2,500 to $2,350, citing rising real interest rates that will compress gold premium space [7].

Geopolitical Analysis - Iran's retaliatory actions against the U.S. led to a ceasefire, reducing geopolitical tensions and market risk aversion, which in turn pressured gold prices [1] - Trump's unexpected "thank you" remarks regarding Iran's response further eased tensions, contributing to a decline in gold prices [1] - The combination of reduced geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on monetary policy is expected to exert downward pressure on gold prices in the future [1] Technical Analysis - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, with a failure to break through the key resistance level of 3400, indicating weak upward momentum [3] - The price has fallen below the important support level of 3335, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend [3] - Current technical structure appears weak, with a focus on the critical support area around 3320; a break below this level could open further downside towards the psychological level of 3300 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have heightened geopolitical tensions, impacting gold prices and market sentiment [1][3]. Market Analysis - As of June 23, gold prices fluctuated significantly, closing at $3387.89 per ounce, with a daily range between $3347.09 and $3397.95 [1]. - The market is currently influenced by two main factors: escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, and internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy [3]. - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have provided temporary support to gold prices, with each statement boosting prices by approximately 30 points [4]. Technical Analysis - The current technical indicators suggest a stalemate in the gold market, with short-term moving averages intertwined and the MACD hovering near the zero line, indicating a lack of clear direction [6]. - The previous high of $3500 remains a significant resistance level, and the market may be shifting towards a bearish trend [6]. - A key strategy for investors is to consider short positions around the $3400 mark, with a critical support level at $3360; a break below this could trigger further selling [6].