Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [26]. Core Insights - The report highlights that national fertility support policies are continuously being strengthened, benefiting the publishing and maternal and infant industry chains. Local maternity leave systems are progressively improving, with significant policy changes such as extending marriage leave from 5 days to 20 days and increasing maternity leave for different birth orders [15][16]. - The combination of "extended maternity leave + childcare subsidies + childcare support" is expected to enhance fertility expectations and stimulate demand in sectors with high stickiness and necessity, such as maternal and infant consumption and educational publishing [20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The social service sector index experienced a weekly increase of 2.09%, ranking 9th among 31 first-level industries in terms of weekly performance [4][6]. - The sub-industry performance showed significant gains, with the sports sector leading at 4.08%, followed by tourism and scenic spots at 3.22% [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive impact of ongoing fertility support policies, with various regions implementing effective measures. For instance, the city of Tianmen has introduced substantial subsidies for families having second or third children, which has led to a notable increase in birth rates [16][18]. - The marginal improvement in birth rates is evident, with a reported increase in the number of births in 2024 compared to 2023, marking a significant turnaround in demographic trends [18]. Industry News Dynamics - The report discusses the broader implications of fertility policies on various sectors, including publishing, infant products, and family-oriented consumption. It notes that the improvement in population structure will gradually benefit the education sector, particularly in areas related to textbooks and children's literature [19]. - The report also highlights the growing trend of family-oriented consumption, with local governments promoting family-friendly tourism and activities, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards valuing quality family time [19].

每经记者｜淡忠奎 每经编辑｜杨欢 又一个人口大省即将迎来婚育假期调整。 最近，四川省卫生健康委员会官网发布《四川省人口与计划生育条例（修正草案征求意见稿）》（以下简称《意见稿》），对婚假、生育假等内容进行调 整。其中，婚假由5天延长至最多25天，产假在国家规定产假（98天）外，一、二、三孩生育假分别延长90天、120天、150天。 除了在地方性法规中明确延长婚育假期，今年以来，还有上海、湖北等不少省份在当地提振消费专项行动实施方案中提到，加快出台延长婚假的具体办法， 要保障产假、护理假、育儿假落实到位，出台育儿补贴和产假社保补贴等。 如中国人口学会会长、中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心主任翟振武对城市进化论分析，近两年来，国家出台了很多生育支持的政策文件，现在正是落实的 阶段，今年各地比较集中地延长婚假、产假，"种类更多、力度也更大"。 梳理31个省份婚育假期的最新规定，婚假最长的甘肃和山西，假期达30天，最短的广东、广西、湖北，仍执行3天的婚假。产假方面，在西藏，产假最长可 休一年，北京、上海、云南等十余个省份的产假天数为158天，各地产假天数最大差距207天。 不可否认，延长婚育假期的出发点是好的，但多出来 ...

2024年7月，党的二十届三中全会指出，健全人口发展支持和服务体系，完善生育支持政策体系和 激励机制，完善生育休假制度，推动建设生育友好型社会。2024年10月，国务院办公厅印发《关于 加快完善生育支持政策体系推动建设生育友好型社会的若干措施》，要求各地完善生育休假政策，建 立合理的成本共担机制。2025年1月，省委召开加强"一老一小"工作座谈会，要求着力完善和落实 积极生育支持政策，建立健全相关政策措施体系；研究评估适度延长婚假、生育假有关事宜，研究提 出具体方案。2025年3月，省政府办公厅印发《四川省人民政府2025年立法计划》，将起草并提请 省人大常委会审议《四川省人口与计划生育条例（修正草案）》列入2025年立法计划。 二、起草过程 为贯彻落实党中央、国务院和省委、省政府决策部署，我委会同人力资源社会保障厅进行深入研究， 梳理全国各省（区、市）关于婚假、生育假、护理假等假期规定，召开《四川省人口与计划生育条 例》（以下简称《条例》）修正工作座谈会，听取省直相关部门、群团、人大代表、政协委员、企业 代表、立法专家等方面对修正相关内容的意见建议，委托国家统计局四川调查总队开展民意调查。在 此基础上，研究 ...

Group 1 - The dairy market is experiencing a phase of supply surplus, leading to a continuous decline in retail prices, with fresh milk purchase prices expected to remain low until Q1 2025 [1] - The revenue growth rate for the dairy sector has narrowed from -7.88% in 2024 to -0.04% in Q1 2025, indicating a potential recovery with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.8 percentage points [1] - The net profit margin for the industry decreased by 0.93 percentage points to 6.12% in 2024, but showed a significant recovery of 16.3 percentage points to 11.6% in Q1 2025, reflecting marginal improvement in profitability [1] Group 2 - The "China Food and Nutrition Development Outline (2025-2030)" emphasizes the need to increase the supply and consumption of high-quality protein foods, anchoring the upgrade path for dairy consumption at a national strategic level [2] - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" aims to significantly enhance consumption and expand domestic demand comprehensively [2] - The supply-side reform is accelerating the elimination of outdated production capacity, while deepening consumption stratification presents structural opportunities for the industry to achieve dynamic rebalancing of supply and demand [2]

政府工作报告中确立"生育促进三支柱"体系（政策补贴、托育扩容、服务优化），卫健委随即启动实施 细则制定。以呼和浩特政策创新试验区为例，其多维激励体系包含现金补贴、定向消费激励（乳制品消 费券）、教育特权（择校权优化）等组合工具，多元化刺激方式有助于形成实质性减负效应。 供需结构上，2024年市场受阶段性供给过剩冲击，乳品零售价格中枢持续下移。至2025Q1，生鲜乳收 购价仍处周期低位，全产业链加速推进产能出清与结构调整。财务数据显示，乳制品板块收入同比增速 从2024年-7.88%收窄至2025Q1的-0.04%，环比回升5.8pct，构筑触底回升信号。盈利能力方面，2024年 归母净利率同比下降0.93pct至6.12%，而2025Q1净利率环比大幅修复16.3pct至11.6%（同比仍降 2.5pct），反映行业盈利质量边际改善。 消费30ETF（510630）紧密跟踪上证主要消费行业指数，涵盖白酒、食品、美容护理、生物科技等细分 板块，其中乳品含量超16%，居全市场第一。 后续来看，乳制品行业迎来"政策供给×消费升级"双向赋能的关键转折期。《中国食物与营养发展纲要 （2025-2030）》明确重点任务" ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia, highlighting the need for effective fertility policies based on international experiences and China's demographic characteristics [1][2][3] - It emphasizes that timely and substantial cash subsidies, maternity leave policies, and comprehensive support systems have shown positive effects in increasing birth rates in various OECD countries [2][31] - The article notes that countries like France and Sweden have successfully raised their total fertility rates above the warning line due to robust fiscal support and well-structured childcare systems [2][43] Group 2 - China's fertility rate has been declining, attributed to a decrease in the proportion of women of childbearing age, late marriage, and late childbirth trends [3][67] - The proportion of women of childbearing age in China has dropped from 20.99% in 2003 to 16.96% in 2023, with the average marriage age rising to around 28 years by 2020 [3][67] - The article highlights that the high costs of child-rearing, along with women's increasing educational attainment and employment rates, contribute to the declining birth rate in China [3][78] Group 3 - Potential fertility policies in China include cash subsidies, employment support, and improvements in education and healthcare systems [5][96] - Local governments are beginning to implement childcare subsidies, with Hohhot offering significant financial support for families with children [5] - If the Hohhot model is adopted nationwide, the total subsidy scale could exceed 370 billion yuan, representing about 1.3% of general fiscal expenditure [5] Group 4 - The article outlines the international experience of addressing low birth rates, categorizing policies into fiscal support, leave policies, and childcare education support [27][31] - It indicates that countries with comprehensive family welfare systems, such as France and Sweden, have seen significant improvements in their fertility rates due to effective policy implementation [43][60] - The article also points out that countries like South Korea and Singapore have struggled to achieve similar results due to late and insufficient policy measures [60][43]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia, exploring international experiences and potential policies for China to address this issue. Group 1: International Experience in Addressing Low Birth Rates - European and East Asian economies have implemented various birth support policies, including cash subsidies and parental leave, which have shown positive effects on birth rates [2][27]. - OECD countries emphasize systematic and tiered birth support policies targeting parents, children, and businesses, with significant fiscal support and childcare services contributing to improved birth rates [2][31]. - Countries like France and Sweden have successfully increased their total fertility rates (TFR) above replacement levels due to robust fiscal support and comprehensive childcare systems, while South Korea and Singapore have seen limited success due to late and insufficient policy implementation [2][43]. Group 2: Characteristics of China's Population Changes - China's fertility rate has been declining, with the proportion of women of childbearing age decreasing from 20.99% in 2003 to 16.96% in 2023, alongside rising average marriage ages [3][67]. - The labor participation rate of women aged 15-64 remains high at around 70%, but the increasing costs of child-rearing and high employment rates contribute to lower fertility intentions [3][78]. - The flow of population, particularly among young adults, has been increasing, with 3.8 billion migrants by 2020, affecting birth intentions due to disparities in public services and household registration systems [4][84]. Group 3: Potential Fertility Policies for China - Local governments are beginning to implement child-rearing subsidies, with Hohhot offering significant financial support for families with children, which could lead to a total subsidy scale exceeding 370 billion yuan if adopted nationwide [5][96]. - A comprehensive support system is needed beyond cash subsidies, including employment rights for women, educational support, healthcare improvements, and housing policies to create a more favorable environment for child-rearing [5][96]. - Since 2013, China has gradually adjusted its family planning policies, moving from a "two-child" policy to a "three-child" policy, and has introduced tax incentives and local subsidies to encourage higher birth rates [5][96].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia, exploring international experiences and potential policy recommendations for China to address this issue. Group 1: International Experience in Addressing Low Birth Rates - European and East Asian economies have implemented various birth support policies, including cash subsidies and maternity leave, which have shown positive effects [2][27] - OECD countries emphasize systematic and tiered policies targeting parents, children, and businesses, with significant fiscal support and childcare services impacting total fertility rates [2][31] - Countries like France and Sweden have successfully increased their total fertility rates above the warning line due to substantial fiscal support and comprehensive childcare systems [2][43] Group 2: Characteristics of China's Population Changes - China's fertility rate has been declining, with the proportion of women of childbearing age decreasing from 20.99% in 2003 to 16.96% in 2023 [3][67] - The average marriage age for women has risen to around 28 years by 2020, with the crude marriage rate dropping below 6% in 2023 [3][67] - The high costs of child-rearing, along with increased education and employment rates for women, contribute to the declining birth rate [3][78] Group 3: Potential Fertility Promotion Policies in China - Local governments are beginning to implement child-rearing subsidies, with Hohhot offering significant financial support for families with children [5][96] - If the Hohhot model is adopted nationwide, total subsidies could exceed 370 billion yuan, representing 1.3% of general fiscal expenditure [5][96] - A comprehensive support system is needed, including employment rights for women, educational services, healthcare improvements, and housing support [5][96]

宏观策略周论："对等关税"以来的输家和赢家 20250506 摘要 • 对等关税后，全球资产表现分化，避险资产如黄金、比特币震荡上行；美 国资产替代需求增加，资金流向欧洲、日本，新兴市场内部资金腾挪，中 国市场（尤其是港股）相对落后。 • 尽管五一假期期间美股未大幅下跌，但内需板块相对泡沫化，外需板块受 关税拖累。美国能源、运输业和中国互联网、软件、非银金融、银行业受 影响较大。 • 中国房地产脱困可借鉴国际经验，如日本长期低息贷款和城市规划，生育 支持政策可参考日韩经验，提供经济补贴、完善育儿设施，刺激内需，提 高出生率。 • 美国股市、债市、汇率三杀，资金流出美国，可能回流港股或欧洲，但新 兴市场风险较高，关税不确定性犹存，外资对美国存量资金影响有限。 • 美联储降息预期推迟至 7 月，美债利率交易在 3.8%左右，下行受限。二 季度美国经济面临关税谈判、减税和汇率变化三大关键因素。 • 港股市场宜采取低迷时积极介入、亢奋时适度获利的策略。行业配置应考 虑成长与防御、外需与内需两条线，并结合宏观经济影响进行细致分析。 • 人民币汇率韧性超出预期，并非完全由基本面解释，伴随结构性或资金面 因素。中国央行可能 ...

Group 1: Economic Environment and Policy Changes - The March PMI showed a steady upward trend, alleviating previous concerns about small businesses and construction resumption post-holiday[4] - The focus of consumption policies has shifted towards pre-consumption factors such as income, credit, and social security, marking a new phase in consumption policy[6] - The introduction of birth support policies is part of a broader "talent competition," with various measures to attract graduates and support families[7] Group 2: Consumer and Investment Trends - In January-February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year-on-year, up from 3.7% at the end of last year[18] - Real estate investment saw a narrowing of negative growth to -9.8%, improving from -10.6% previously[18] - The sales of commercial housing in Hubei Tianmen increased by 6.1% year-on-year, indicating a potential link to birth policies that encourage home purchases[9] Group 3: Credit and Financing Developments - Personal consumption loan growth has slowed significantly, dropping to 1.4% in January-February from over 15% in 2018-2019[13] - New policies aim to support personal credit recovery, allowing banks to extend loan repayment terms for borrowers facing difficulties[11] - The issuance of local government bonds increased significantly, with a total of 16,967 billion yuan in new government bonds issued in February, up 10,956 billion yuan year-on-year[24]