Financial Performance - Walt Disney is expected to announce Q3 FY'25 results on August 6, 2025, with earnings anticipated at approximately $1.44 per share and revenue projected to increase by about 2.5% to $23.75 billion [2] - The company's DTC segment generated operating income of $336 million in Q2 FY'25, a significant increase from $47 million a year prior, driven by price increases and higher advertising revenues [2] - Disney's current market capitalization stands at $218 billion, with revenue for the past twelve months recorded at $94 billion, operating profits at $14 billion, and net income at $8.9 billion [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company has intensified efforts against password sharing by implementing an extra-member fee starting at $7 per month to convert shared users into paying customers [3] - Disney's experiences segment has shown strong performance, particularly in U.S. parks and the cruising segment, which welcomed the Disney Treasure cruise ship into service late last year [3] Historical Performance Insights - Over the last five years, Disney has recorded 20 earnings data points with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, indicating a 50% chance of positive returns [7] - The median of the 10 positive returns is 5.6%, while the median of the 10 negative returns is -3.5% [7] - Analyzing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings can provide insights for trading strategies [8]

Group 1 - Ford Motor is expected to report earnings of approximately $0.33 per share for Q2 2025, down from $0.47 per share in the same quarter last year, with revenues projected at $43.93 billion, reflecting a 2% decline year-over-year [2] - Vehicle deliveries in the U.S. for Q2 increased by 14.2% year-over-year to 612,095 units, driven by strong demand for pickups, particularly the F-Series, Ranger, and Maverick, which saw a collective sales surge of 15% [2] - The F-Series sales rose by 11.5% to 222,459 units, marking the best Q2 performance since 2019, with a higher proportion of pickup sales potentially enhancing Ford's profit margins [2] Group 2 - The new tariffs on automobiles and components may affect Ford's costs and profitability, although Ford is estimated to have 80% of its U.S. sales in 2024 from domestically assembled vehicles, potentially positioning it better than competitors like GM, which faced a $1.1 billion impact from tariffs [3] - Ford's current market capitalization stands at $44 billion, with revenue over the past twelve months reaching $183 billion, and operational profitability reflected in operating profits of $4.3 billion and net income of $5.0 billion [4] Group 3 - Historical data shows that Ford has had 20 earnings data points over the last five years, with a 50% occurrence of positive one-day post-earnings returns, which declines to 42% when considering the last three years [6] - The median of the 10 positive returns is 2.6%, while the median of the 10 negative returns is -8.0%, indicating a balanced risk-reward scenario for traders [6]

Core Insights - VeriSign (NASDAQ: VRSN) is scheduled to announce its earnings on July 24, 2025, with historical data indicating a balanced outcome in one-day returns post-earnings announcements, achieving a positive return in 50% of cases with a median increase of 2.9% and a negative return in the other 50% with a median drop of -2.7% [2][7] Financial Performance - Analysts project earnings of $2.20 per share on revenue of $410 million for the upcoming quarter, reflecting an increase from the previous year's earnings of $2.01 per share on sales of $387 million [3] - VeriSign has a market capitalization of $27 billion, generating $1.6 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating earnings of $1.1 billion and a net income of $791 million, indicating strong operational profitability [4] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities, while post-earnings analysis can help in understanding the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns following the earnings release [6] - Historical data shows that there are 20 earnings data points over the past five years, with a 50% occurrence of positive one-day returns, which increases to 58% when considering the last three years [7] Correlation Analysis - A strategy involving the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be beneficial, particularly if the correlation is strong, allowing traders to position themselves accordingly based on 1D and 5D return correlations [8]

分组1 - Mastercard is expected to announce second-quarter earnings on July 31, 2025, with earnings anticipated at approximately $4.02 per share, reflecting an increase of nearly 11% year-over-year, and revenues projected to rise by 14% to $7.95 billion [1] - The growth is likely driven by strong cross-border transaction volume and value-added services, including security, fraud protection, and digital solutions [1] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $507 billion, with a revenue of $29 billion over the past twelve months, operating profits of $17 billion, and a net income of $13 billion [1] 分组2 - Historical data shows that over the past five years, Mastercard has recorded 20 earnings data points, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in a positive return occurrence of approximately 45% [4] - The median of the 9 positive returns is 2.7%, while the median of the 11 negative returns is -1.7% [4] - The correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings can be utilized to inform trading strategies, particularly if a high correlation is identified between 1D and 5D returns [5]

Group 1 - Apple is expected to announce fiscal Q3 2025 earnings on July 31, with estimated earnings of approximately $1.42 per share, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year, and revenues projected to rise by 3.3% year-over-year to $88.6 billion, primarily driven by the services sector [2] - Hardware sales, particularly iPhone sales, are anticipated to slow down ahead of the iPhone 17 launch in September, although new budget-friendly iPhone 16e and upgraded M4-powered MacBooks may provide some offsetting gains [2] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $3.1 trillion, with total revenue over the past twelve months reaching $400 billion, including $127 billion in operating profits and a net income of $97 billion [4] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on Apple is being monitored, with CEO Tim Cook previously indicating potential additional expenses of up to $900 million due to tariffs during the June quarter [3] - Historical data shows that Apple has had 20 earnings data points over the past five years, with positive one-day post-earnings returns observed about 40% of the time, increasing to 50% over the last three years [6] - The median of the positive one-day returns is 5.3%, while the median of the negative returns is -1.6% [6]

Core Insights - Western Alliance (WAL) reported revenue of $856.1 million for Q2 2025, a year-over-year increase of 9.5% and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $848.1 million by 0.94% [1] - The company's EPS for the same period was $2.07, up from $1.75 a year ago, also surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.04 by 1.47% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Efficiency Ratio stood at 60.1%, higher than the average estimate of 58.5% from four analysts [4] - Net Interest Margin was reported at 3.5%, slightly above the average estimate of 3.4% [4] - Net charge-offs to average loans were annualized at 0.2%, matching the average estimate from four analysts [4] - Average Balance of Total Interest Earning Assets was $80.53 billion, exceeding the estimated $79.16 billion [4] - Total Non-Interest Income reached $148.3 million, above the average estimate of $138.63 million [4] - Service Charges and Fees were reported at $36.9 million, below the average estimate of $39 million [4] - Net Interest Income was $697.6 million, surpassing the average estimate of $689.28 million [4] - Net Gain on Loan Origination and Sale Activities was $39.4 million, below the average estimate of $59.48 million [4] - Other Non-Interest Income was $8.3 million, below the average estimate of $15.06 million [4] - Net Interest Income (FTE) was $707.8 million, slightly above the average estimate of $703.17 million [4] - Net Loan Servicing Revenue was reported at $38.3 million, exceeding the average estimate of $24.72 million [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Western Alliance have returned +13.8% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.2% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - United Airlines is scheduled to release its earnings report on July 17, 2025, with traders focusing on historical stock performance related to earnings announcements [2] - The current consensus forecasts predict earnings of $3.88 per share on revenue of $15.33 billion, compared to $4.14 per share on revenue of $14.99 billion in the same quarter last year [3] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, United Airlines stock has experienced negative one-day returns following earnings releases in 60% of cases, with a median negative return of -4.0% and a maximum decline of -10.2% [3][7] - There have been 20 earnings data points recorded in the past five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 40% of the time [7] Financial Metrics - United Airlines currently has a market capitalization of $29 billion, with $58 billion in revenue, $5.6 billion in operating profits, and a net income of $3.7 billion over the last twelve months [4] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities and assess the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns following the earnings announcement [6] - A relatively lower-risk strategy involves assessing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings to inform trading decisions [8]

Core Insights - PepsiCo is scheduled to announce its earnings on July 17, 2025, with consensus forecasts predicting earnings of $2.03 per share and revenues of $22.3 billion, which are lower than the previous year's earnings of $2.28 per share and sales of $22.5 billion [3][4]. Historical Performance - Over the past five years, PepsiCo's stock has shown a significant trend of positive one-day returns after earnings reports, with a 78% occurrence rate of increases and a median positive return of 1.5%, peaking at 3.6% [3][7]. - In the last three years, the percentage of positive one-day returns rises to 82%, with the median of positive returns being 1.5% and negative returns averaging -1.1% [7]. Financial Metrics - PepsiCo has a market capitalization of $186 billion, with $92 billion in revenue, $13 billion in operating income, and a net profit of $9.4 billion over the past twelve months, indicating strong operational profitability [4]. Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities and evaluate the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns to guide their trading strategies [6][8]. - A correlation analysis between one-day, five-day, and twenty-one-day returns can help identify the strongest trading opportunities following earnings announcements [8][9]. Peer Comparison - The performance of PepsiCo's competitors can influence stock reactions post-earnings, with historical data showing the relationship between PepsiCo's stock performance and that of its peers reporting earnings prior [9].

Core Insights - Elevance Health (NYSE: ELV) is scheduled to report earnings on July 17, 2025, with analysts projecting earnings of $9.19 per share on revenue of $48.26 billion, compared to $10.12 per share and $43.22 billion in the same quarter last year [3][4] Group 1: Stock Performance and Historical Data - Over the last five years, Elevance Health has experienced positive one-day stock returns in 55% of cases following earnings announcements, with a median positive return of 2.7% and a maximum return of 7.7% [3][7] - In the past five years, there have been 18 earnings data points, resulting in 11 positive and 7 negative one-day returns, leading to a positive return rate of approximately 61%, which increases to 73% when considering the last three years [7] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Elevance Health currently has a market capitalization of $77 billion and has generated $183 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with a net income of $5.9 billion [4] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Traders can adopt two primary strategies around earnings announcements: pre-earnings positioning and post-earnings positioning, evaluating immediate and medium-term returns to inform trading actions [6] - A lower-risk strategy involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, allowing traders to take positions based on the strongest correlations observed [8][9]

Company Overview - Alcoa is set to announce its earnings on July 16, 2025, with consensus earnings estimated at approximately $0.51 per share and revenues projected to increase by nearly 2% year-over-year [2] - The company has a current market capitalization of $7.9 billion and reported revenue of $13 billion over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $1.6 billion and net income of $860 million [3] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations are influenced by tariff disruptions, mixed performance among business units, and uncertain aluminum demand, slightly offset by strong alumina margins and effective internal cost management [2] - The Alumina segment is expected to remain robust due to steady demand and advantageous cost structures, while the Aluminum segment faces challenges from elevated costs and weak global pricing [2] Historical Performance - Over the last five years, Alcoa has documented 19 earnings data points, with positive one-day (1D) returns observed approximately 32% of the time, which declines to 25% over the last three years [5] - The median of the six positive returns is 3.1%, while the median of the thirteen negative returns is -5.4% [5]