Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a sustained increase in fiber optic prices in the Chinese market since Q3 2025, reflecting strong demand and tight supply conditions. The global demand for fiber optic cables is robust, driven by overseas demand and AI-related applications, leading to a recommendation for continued investment in the fiber optic sector [1]. Group 1: Price Trends and Demand - Since Q3 2025, the price of domestic G652D fiber has consistently increased, reaching 31.5 yuan per core kilometer in January 2026, a 79% increase from November 2025, indicating a favorable industry demand and tight supply [1]. - In 2025, China's optical fiber exports increased by 47.1% in volume and 65.4% in value, while optical preform exports rose by 89.5% in volume and 81.7% in value, reflecting strong global demand for fiber optic cables [1]. Group 2: Future Demand Projections - The demand for fiber optics is expected to grow rapidly due to AI and other factors, with significant increases in global optical module demand anticipated in 2026, which will correspondingly boost fiber demand [2]. - By around 2027, the demand for fiber optics is projected to scale up significantly, with Corning estimating that this demand could be 2-3 times that of existing enterprise network business [2]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The North American market is experiencing a supply gap, with fiber demand growth outpacing supply growth, leading to potential shortages as AI continues to drive demand [3]. - The supply-demand balance in the U.S. market is projected to show deficits of 0.28 million core kilometers in 2023, 0.24 million in 2024, and 0.24 million in 2025, indicating a tightening market [3]. - Major suppliers in North America, such as Corning and Prysmian, are operating at high capacity utilization rates and are expanding slowly, which may create significant export opportunities for leading domestic fiber optic companies [3].

我是芯片超人花姐，入行20年，有50W+芯片行业粉丝。 有很多不方便公开发公众号的， 关于芯片买卖、关于资 源链接等， 我会分享在朋友圈 。 扫码加我本人微信 2025年，芯片行业几乎没怎么"消停"过： 关税冲突、存储行情、安世事件、产能满载、上游原材料 涨价，直到年末涨价函纷飞。 行情在波动中重塑，也不断释放结构性机会。这一年，我们一路跟踪、一路写下 ：把热点、情绪 和真实的市场温度，尽量完整地记录下来。 下面，让 我们一起回顾2025年行业都发生了什么。 一月 热点新闻回顾： 传三星等韩厂减产消费级NAND Flash 芯片需求疲软，瑞萨电子将裁员数百人 Altera正式宣布从英特尔独立，全力拓展FPGA业务 DeepSeek问世，大摩、里昂看好AI前景 2025年开年，我们做了一份"芯片人的年终报告" ，2024年大家的 情绪很复杂 ， 行业的复苏还 没真正到来，很多人都在不确定里咬牙往前走。我们也搜集 了 大家对2025年的期待与判断，把 那些真实的声音整理下来： 《关于芯片人的 n 份邪门年终报告》 《2025年，芯片行情会变好吗？》 春节临近，KPI、回款、库存 …… 忙碌和焦虑也被节奏推得更近 ...

Group 1 - Western Securities launched an online service from February 16 to 23, featuring 15 conference calls, with a focus on the AI industry, which gained significant attention during the holiday period [1] - Over 100 brokerage roadshows were scheduled during the Spring Festival, with more than 20 online roadshows from February 16 to 18 and over 80 roadshows from February 19 to 23, indicating a strong demand for research services [3] - Smaller brokerages have become the main players in holiday roadshows, using differentiated competition strategies to effectively reach target clients and meet the research needs of institutions holding stocks during the holiday [3] Group 2 - The surge in holiday roadshows is attributed to increased competition in the sell-side research industry amid a backdrop of reduced fees for public funds, with brokerage commission income declining significantly [4] - In the first half of 2025, total brokerage commission income fell by 33.98% year-on-year, with Western Securities experiencing a decline of over 20% and other firms like Open Source Securities seeing declines exceeding 40% [4] - Future industry developments suggest that large comprehensive brokerages will continue strategic investments in research, while medium-sized brokerages will intensify competition to offset the impact of declining fees [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility and structural differentiation during the Year of the Snake, with major indices showing mid-tier performance globally, while the internal dynamics highlighted a clear "tech-traditional" dichotomy [1] - Major memory chip companies such as Western Digital, Micron Technology, and Seagate Technology saw dramatic stock price increases of 495%, 368%, and 333% respectively, marking them as the biggest winners [1] - Gold mining stocks like Gold Rush, Newmont, and Barrick Gold also surged over 226%, correlating with the significant rises in COMEX silver (150.21%) and gold (82.97%) prices [1] Group 2 - Following the unexpected global tariff policy introduced by the Trump administration, the S&P 500 experienced a two-day drop of 10.53%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $6.6 trillion, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 entered a technical bear market [2] - The market rebounded dramatically, with the Nasdaq soaring 12% in a single day and the S&P rising nearly 10%, driven by AI giants like Nvidia, which saw its market cap exceed $4 trillion and $5 trillion, surpassing the combined market cap of the UK and French stock markets [2] - Traditional stocks represented by companies like Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar began to rise, indicating a shift in capital towards cyclical sectors amidst increasing caution regarding tech monopolies [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, there is a notable divergence in outlook among major investment banks: Morgan Stanley is optimistic, predicting the S&P 500 will rise to 7800 points, favoring small-cap, cyclical, and financial sectors due to expected profit growth and AI efficiency [3] - Morgan Chase suggests a "structural bull market" with a target of 7500 points for the S&P, while Goldman Sachs warns of economic slowdown risks in the second half of the year, indicating limited rotation potential [3] - The Year of the Snake showcased a dramatic narrative in the capital markets, transitioning from tariff-induced declines to AI-driven exuberance, raising questions about the sustainability of growth in AI and the potential for traditional industries to overcome concentration challenges [3]

扬帆出海 作者丨子墨 时间到了2026年，中国企业出海早已不是简单地"把货卖出去"，而是整个经营重心向全球化转移。在这一热潮中，港交所的角色非常关 键。 近些年，很多互联网出海企业、跨境电商公司扎堆去港股上市，逻辑其实很务实。一方面，香港市场背后是国际资金，这些投资者看海 外业务的目光和全球市场更为同频，也让这些公司的估值更合理。另一方面，在香港挂牌意味着公司需要采用国际通行的财务与监管披 露体系，这对企业在海外拿牌照、做本土化推广是十分有力的背书。可以说，去香港上市不仅仅是为了去二级市场筹钱，更多的是企业 在为长期的全球化战略做基础的架构。 基于此，我们梳理了2026年以来在港交所上市/递表的出海企业，并从财务情况、海外核心业务、市场布局及商业模式等维度进行了深度 拆解与分析，探索这批全球化新势力的底层增长逻辑。与此同时，我们对2026年资本市场将如何重塑出海企业价值进行了趋势展望，旨 在为后续入局者提供具有价值的参考。 智谱 智谱于2026年1月8日在港交所主板正式挂牌上市。根据其招股书披露的财务数据显示，公司在往绩记录期内实现了收入的跨越式增长。 2024年总收入达3.12亿元，较2023年的1.24亿 ...

美银Michael Hartnett团队认为，特朗普"可负担性"政治推动资金从"华尔街精英阶层"转向"主街普通民众"：小盘价值股崛起，科技巨头承压；AI叙事 从"惊叹"转向"致贫"，相关债务激增；日元与日股相关性转正预示长期牛市，但需警惕日元急升引发全球去杠杆。新兴市场和小盘股有望领跑新时代。 追风交易台消息，2月12日， 美银证券Michael Hartnett的研究团队发表研报指出，钱正在离开过去几年的明星资产。 年初至今，黄金涨了13.4%，石油涨了9.5%，国际股票涨了8.7%。美股跌了0.2%，比特币暴跌25%。 （韩国股票4周资金流入创纪录） 这背后的核心因素在于"可负担性"政治。特朗普政府正激进转向讨好"主街"（普通民众）而非"华尔街"（精英阶层）的政策。美银强调这意味着三大关键 变化： 第一，美国大盘成长股向小盘价值股的历史性轮动已经开启； 第二，AI叙事正从"AI惊叹"转向"AI致贫"，科技股面临压力； 第三，日元与日股的相关性自2005年以来首次转正，这是结构性牛市的特征。但需警惕日元升值过快（跌破145）引发全球去杠杆。 "可负担性"政治下，"主街"资产崛起 当前市场的总开关是政治对"可 ...

Core Insights - The Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics is showcasing a strong presence of global brands, particularly Chinese sponsors, marking a significant moment in sports marketing [1][7]. Group 1: Sponsorship and Advertising - Major sponsors like TCL, Alibaba, and Coca-Cola are leveraging the Olympics for extensive advertising, with TCL securing the largest outdoor billboard in Milan [1][2]. - The city has transformed into a winter Olympics-themed venue, with advertisements from various sponsors visible in public spaces, including bus stops and tram bodies [2]. - The current Winter Olympics features 12 TOP sponsors, including three from China, highlighting the increasing influence of Chinese brands in global sports [3][7]. Group 2: Services and Products Provided by Sponsors - TOP sponsors are not only providing financial support but also services, such as TCL setting up a lounge in the Olympic Village equipped with their products [4]. - Other sponsors like Alibaba and Procter & Gamble are also providing unique experiences and products for athletes, enhancing the overall Olympic experience [4]. - The use of advanced technology, such as AI and cloud services, is evident in the broadcasting and event management, with Alibaba's AI assistant deployed for operational support [9]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Market Dynamics - The TOP sponsorship program is a significant revenue source for the International Olympic Committee, with companies paying over $300 million per cycle [6]. - The financial contributions from TOP sponsors are crucial for the organization and development of Olympic events globally [5]. - TCL's market share in Italy has grown by approximately 50%, indicating the effectiveness of sports marketing in enhancing brand recognition [10]. Group 4: Changes in Sponsorship Landscape - The upcoming Paris Olympics will see a shift in the sponsorship landscape, with several long-standing sponsors exiting the TOP program, creating opportunities for new entrants [8]. - The departure of traditional sponsors reflects a broader trend of industry transformation, with a focus on new technologies and market dynamics [8]. - The increasing presence of Chinese brands in the TOP sponsorship ranks signifies a shift in global commercial power within the Olympic framework [7].

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a structural upward trend last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4082.07 points, remaining stable throughout the week [1] - The growth sector performed strongly, highlighted by a 3.37% increase in the STAR 50 Index, indicating robust momentum in technology and innovation themes [1] - In contrast, the value sector showed relative weakness, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI Dividend Index experiencing slight declines [1] - Internationally, the U.S. stock indices collectively fell, with the S&P 500 down 1.39%, while European markets saw moderate gains [2] - Asian markets performed strongly, with the Korean Composite Index soaring 8.21% and the Nikkei 225 rising 4.96% [2] Sector Performance - The Information Technology sector rose by 3.62%, and the Communication Services sector increased by 2.43%, showcasing strong performance [1][9] - Conversely, the Consumer Staples sector declined by 2.45%, and the Financial sector fell by 1.41%, marking the weakest performances [1][9] - The rise of AI technologies has propelled the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, leading to accelerated sector rotation during the earnings forecast period [1][9] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 64 funds were launched last week, including 24 equity funds, 19 mixed funds, 8 bond funds, 2 QDII funds, and 11 FOF funds, with a total fundraising amount of 58.33 billion [1][17] - The overall performance of funds was positive, with the Wind All Fund Index rising by 0.79%, and the ordinary equity fund index increasing by 1.40% [5] - The equity funds significantly outperformed bond funds, with the equity mixed fund index rising by 1.52% [5] Bond Market Overview - The bond market sentiment was warm, with the convertible bond index leading gains, and both 10-year and 30-year government bond futures slightly rising [13] - Domestic long-term interest rates remain at historically low levels, indicating a stable bond market environment [13]

Core Insights - The Melania Trump-themed meme coin and the Trump memecoin have experienced significant declines of 36.11% and 41.55% respectively over the past month, with the World Liberty Financial also losing 43.82% of its value [1] - The downturn in the cryptocurrency market is attributed to macroeconomic factors, including the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, disappointing earnings from major tech companies, and a correction in precious metals [2] - Bitcoin has fallen nearly 50% from its peak in October, with a sell-off in early February leading to over $2.7 billion in liquidations, marking its sharpest decline since 2022 [3] Cryptocurrency Market Trends - The popularity of speculative meme coins is seen as a contributing factor to the struggles of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market [7] - Celebrity-backed cryptocurrencies, such as those associated with Eric Adams and Haliey Welch, have also led to investor losses, highlighting the risks associated with investing in such tokens [4][6] - Other popular meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu are also experiencing significant volatility, indicating a broader trend of instability in the digital asset market [8] Regulatory and Market Sentiment - Criticism has been directed at the Trump administration's approach to cryptocurrency regulation, which some believe has made the market less appealing to everyday investors [3][6] - There are mixed views on Trump's crypto agenda, with some predicting Bitcoin could bottom between $58,000 and $63,000, while others argue that his policies could benefit the crypto industry [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of the video model Seedance 2.0 has sparked widespread discussion and concern due to its ability to generate highly realistic videos from simple prompts, leading to potential misinformation issues in the digital space [2] Group 1: AI Video Generation and Public Reaction - Seedance 2.0 is capable of producing movie-quality videos with just a few prompts, creating a viral sensation on social media platforms [2] - The realistic nature of some generated content has raised concerns about the difficulty in distinguishing between real and AI-generated videos [4] Group 2: Regulatory Response to Misinformation - Authorities have taken action against accounts that publish AI-generated content without proper identification, resulting in the processing of 13,421 accounts and the removal of over 543,000 pieces of illegal information [4] - Specific cases include accounts that created misleading narratives or impersonated public figures using AI technologies for profit, which have been dealt with legally [4][5][6] Group 3: Future Measures and Community Responsibility - The regulatory body plans to maintain a strict oversight on AI-generated content lacking proper identification and encourages content creators to comply with guidelines to prevent public deception [6]