4 December 2025 ab Global Research China AI Intelligence What is ahead: Our take on the recent key debates in China AI What are the key focal points in 2026? Over the course of 2025, we note increasing investor interest in and recognition of China's AI development, supported by encouraging progress across LLM technology, computing infrastructure and enterprise/consumer adoption. AI investment (eg, internet leaders' CAPEX), application and commercialisation, domestic substitution (especially chips) are among ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese internet sector is expected to see a remarkable growth of 36.5% in 2025, but the real competition will unfold in 2026 around artificial intelligence (AI) [2][3] Group 1: 2026 AI Competition - The competition in the AI sector will focus on three main themes: AI cloud infrastructure, AI chatbots, and AI applications [6][7] - Major players like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent are competing to capture user traffic through their AI chatbots, aiming to secure key monetization avenues in the AI era [3][7] Group 2: AI Cloud Infrastructure - Alibaba and Baidu are leading a capital race in AI cloud infrastructure, with Alibaba's capital expenditure reaching approximately 120 billion RMB over the past four quarters and planning to invest 380 billion RMB in the next three years [8] - Alibaba's cloud business revenue grew by 34% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while Baidu's AI cloud revenue also saw a 21% year-on-year increase, reaching 6.2 billion RMB [8] Group 3: AI Chatbot Competition - AI chatbots are defined as the "traffic entry point" in the AI era, with Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent heavily investing in this user acquisition battle [11] - ByteDance's chatbot "Doubao" leads the Chinese market with 197 million monthly active users (MAU) as of October 2025 [11] Group 4: Vertical AI Applications - Companies in vertical sectors like Meituan, Ctrip, and Didi are training their proprietary AI agents using exclusive data to enhance user engagement and explore new monetization opportunities [16] - Ctrip's AI travel assistant "TripGenie" saw its user base grow by over 200% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [16] Group 5: Global Expansion of AI - Chinese AI applications are accelerating their global expansion, with ByteDance's products ranking among the top in global MAU [20] - As of November 2025, ByteDance's "Dola" and another Chinese product "DeepSeek" ranked fourth and fifth globally, with 47 million and 39 million MAU respectively [20] Group 6: Performance Review and Outlook - In Q3 2025, 27 out of 44 internet companies exceeded profit expectations, attributed to cost optimization and productivity gains from AI [26] - The gaming industry is expected to benefit from AI-driven efficiency improvements, with the average revenue per user (ARPU) rebounding to 41 RMB, a 13.3% year-on-year increase [27] - The tourism sector shows resilience, with tourism expenditure as a percentage of GDP at 4.3% in 2024, indicating growth potential [28]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese internet sector is expected to lead global returns with a remarkable 36.5% growth in 2025, but the real competition will unfold in 2026 around artificial intelligence (AI) [1][3] Group 1: AI Competition Themes - The competition in China's AI sector in 2026 will focus on three main themes: AI cloud infrastructure, AI chatbots, and AI applications [5] - Major players like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent are vying for user traffic through their AI chatbots, aiming to secure key entry points for future ecosystem commercialization [3][5] Group 2: AI Cloud Infrastructure Investment - Alibaba and Baidu are leading a capital race in AI cloud infrastructure, with Alibaba's capital expenditure reaching approximately 120 billion RMB over the past four quarters and plans to invest 380 billion RMB over the next three years [6] - Alibaba's cloud business revenue grew by 34% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while Baidu's AI cloud revenue also saw a 21% year-on-year increase, reaching 6.2 billion RMB [6] Group 3: AI Chatbot User Acquisition - AI chatbots are defined as the "traffic entry point" of the AI era, with Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent heavily investing in user acquisition [9] - ByteDance's chatbot "Doubao" leads the Chinese market with 197 million monthly active users (MAU) as of October 2025 [9] Group 4: Vertical AI Applications - Companies in vertical sectors like Meituan, Ctrip, and Didi are training proprietary AI agents using their exclusive data to enhance user engagement and explore new monetization opportunities [13] - Ctrip's AI travel assistant "TripGenie" saw its user base grow by over 200% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [13] Group 5: Global Expansion of AI Applications - Chinese AI applications are accelerating their global expansion, with ByteDance's products ranking fourth and fifth globally in MAU [15] - Combining Doubao's 197 million MAU in China with Dola's 47 million overseas users results in a total of approximately 250 million MAU, placing ByteDance's AI chat products third globally [15] Group 6: Performance Review and Future Outlook - In Q3 2025, 27 out of 44 internet companies exceeded profit expectations, attributed to cost optimization and productivity gains from AI [18] - The gaming industry is expected to benefit from AI-driven efficiency improvements, with the average revenue per user (ARPU) rebounding to 41 RMB, a 13.3% year-on-year increase [18] - The tourism sector shows resilience, with tourism spending as a percentage of GDP at 4.3% in 2024, indicating further growth potential [19]

2025年，中国互联网板块以36.5%的惊人回报率领跑全球，但真正的故事将在2026年围绕人工智能全面展开。 据追风交易台消息，花旗在12月1日发布的《中国互联网2026年上半年展望》报告中表示，2026年中国AI领域的竞争将围绕三大主题展开：AI云基础设 施、AI聊天机器人以及AI应用。报告认为，阿里巴巴、字节跳动和腾讯等主要参与者正争相通过旗下的AI聊天机器人抢占用户流量，以期在AI时代锁 定未来生态系统商业化的关键入口。 分析师Alicia Yap等人强调，这场"用户流量地盘争夺战"将是中国互联网巨头2026年的关键阿里巴巴和腾讯被视为核心AI投资标的，而字节跳动凭借其 AI应用在全球市场的迅猛扩张，已成为不可忽视的颠覆性力量，其AI聊天应用全球月活用户（MAU）总计已冲至全球第三。 与此同时，AI带来的生产力提升将释放更多休闲娱乐需求，利好游戏和旅游等具有稳定盈利能力的行业。花旗认为，由于地缘政治风险和AI供应链限 制，中国互联网公司的估值可能将继续低于全球同行。 2026年AI竞赛：三大主题全面展开 报告预测，2026年中国AI领域的竞争将非常激烈，主要聚焦于三个层面。这不仅是技术之争，更是未来商业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) maintains a "Buy" rating with Q3 2025 performance slightly exceeding expectations, net revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to 18.4 billion RMB, and operating profit margin stable at 30% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations with net revenue of 18.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%, surpassing the bank/market expectations by 2%/1% [1] - Accommodation bookings increased by 14% year-on-year, while transportation ticketing revenue rose by 9%, accounting for 44% and 34% of total revenue respectively, contributing 51% and 27% to revenue growth [1] - Gross profit increased by 15% year-on-year with a gross margin of 82%, remaining stable both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] - Operating profit reached 5.6 billion RMB, an 11% year-on-year increase, exceeding bank/market expectations by 4%/5%, with an operating profit margin rising to 30% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.2 billion RMB, significantly above market expectations of 5.6 billion RMB, primarily reflecting gains from the disposal of overseas investment in MakeMyTrip [1] Operational Data - Domestic hotel ADR and ticket prices saw a slight decline in Q3, with domestic tourism revenue per capita increasing by 5% and total visits up by 13% year-on-year [2] - Outbound hotel and ticket bookings increased by 20% year-on-year, and 40% compared to Q3 2019, indicating a recovery faster than the industry average [2] - International OTA hotel and ticket bookings maintained over 60% year-on-year growth, with the Asia-Pacific market being the largest [2] - Inbound tourism bookings more than doubled year-on-year [2] - TripGenie has expanded to over 200 countries, with user growth exceeding 200% year-on-year [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - During the National Day holiday, outbound hotel and ticket bookings increased by 30%, with strong growth in Europe and stable hotel ADR [3] - Q4 total revenue is expected to grow by 16% year-on-year, with accommodation and transportation bookings projected to increase by 15% and 12% respectively [3] - For 2026, total revenue is forecasted to grow by 14%, with adjusted net profit expected to reach 20.8 billion RMB and a profit margin of 29.6% [3] - The bank is optimistic about the company's long-term profit margin exceeding 30%, driven by supply advantages and improved profitability in overseas operations [3] - The valuation benchmark has been adjusted to 2026, with a target price raised to 693 HKD (9961.HK) / 89 USD (TCOM.US) based on a 20x 2026 P/E ratio [3] - The company continues to invest in AI and overseas markets while maintaining good ROI and financial discipline [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) maintains a "Buy" rating with Q3 2025 performance slightly exceeding expectations, net revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to 18.4 billion RMB, and operating profit margin stable at 30% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached 18.4 billion RMB, a 16% year-on-year increase, slightly above the firm's and market expectations by 2% and 1% respectively [2] - Accommodation bookings grew by 14% year-on-year, while transportation ticketing revenue increased by 9%, accounting for 44% and 34% of total revenue, contributing 51% and 27% to revenue growth [2] - Gross profit rose by 15% year-on-year with a gross margin of 82%, remaining stable both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2] - Operating profit was 5.6 billion RMB, an 11% year-on-year increase, exceeding the firm's and market expectations by 4% and 5% respectively, with an operating profit margin of 30% [2] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.2 billion RMB, significantly above market expectations of 5.6 billion RMB, mainly reflecting gains from the disposal of overseas investment in MakeMyTrip [2] Operational Data - Domestic hotel ADR and ticket prices saw a slight decline in Q3, with domestic tourism revenue per capita increasing by 5% and total visits up by 13% year-on-year [3] - Outbound hotel and flight bookings increased by 20% year-on-year, and 40% compared to Q3 2019, indicating a faster recovery than the industry average [3] - International OTA hotel and flight bookings maintained over 60% year-on-year growth, with the Asia-Pacific market being the largest [3] - Inbound travel bookings more than doubled year-on-year [3] - TripGenie has expanded to over 200 countries, with user growth exceeding 200% year-on-year [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - During the National Day holiday, outbound travel hotel and flight bookings increased by 30%, with notable growth in Europe and stable hotel ADR [4] - Q4 total revenue is expected to grow by 16% year-on-year, with accommodation and transportation bookings projected to increase by 15% and 12% respectively [4] - For 2026, total revenue is forecasted to grow by 14%, with adjusted net profit expected to reach 20.8 billion RMB and a profit margin of 29.6% [4] - The firm is optimistic about the company's long-term profit margin exceeding 30%, driven by supply advantages and improved profitability in overseas operations [4] - The valuation benchmark has been adjusted to 2026, with a target price raised to 693 HKD (9961.HK) / 89 USD (TCOM.US) based on a 20x 2026 P/E ratio [4] - The company continues to invest in AI and overseas markets while maintaining good ROI and financial discipline [4]

记者丨高江虹 编辑丨高梦阳 11月18日，携程集团公布2025年第三季度财报，数据显示单季净利润达到199亿元，同比大幅增长 194%，创下净利润超过营业收入的罕见记录。 这一利润表现背后，是一项精明的跨境投资退出决策。携程通过出售所持印度在线旅游巨头 MakeMyTrip部分股权，一举获得约170亿元巨额收益。 "这主要得益于处置某些投资所得，"携程CFO王肖璠在业绩发布会上坦言。她所指的，正是携程对 MakeMyTrip这笔历时九年的投资。不过，剔除这笔投资收益，携程第三季度净利润并没有那么可观， 远低于去年同期的68亿元。 下一步，携程要如何向投资者描绘增长曲线？ | TCOM Financial Results Recap | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RMB '00mn | 3Q23 | 4Q23 | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3025 | 3Q25E | var. | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, reaching 19.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 194%, primarily driven by a strategic exit from its investment in MakeMyTrip, which generated approximately 17 billion RMB in revenue from the sale of shares [1][4]. Investment in MakeMyTrip - Ctrip's investment in MakeMyTrip began in January 2016 with a convertible bond of 180 million USD, marking its entry into the Indian market, which was seen as having high growth potential due to a rapidly rising middle class [4][5]. - The investment was strategically timed, as the IMF projected India's economic growth at 7.5% in 2016, with a significant increase in the middle-class population, providing a strong foundation for tourism consumption [4]. - Over nine years, Ctrip's stake in MakeMyTrip grew, with the book value of the investment reaching 6.2 billion RMB by the end of 2023 and 7.1 billion RMB by the end of 2024, indicating a stable appreciation [5][6]. - In June 2025, Ctrip sold part of its shares in MakeMyTrip for 2.5 to 3 billion USD, reducing its voting rights from 45.3% to 16.9%, transitioning from a strategic to a financial investor [5][6]. Growth Engines - Ctrip's management highlighted three main growth engines: AI technology, inbound tourism, and targeted market segmentation [8][9]. - AI is positioned as a core strategic pillar, with Ctrip's AI travel assistant, TripGenie, expanding its user base significantly, indicating a strong focus on enhancing customer experience through technology [8]. - The inbound tourism sector is identified as a rapidly growing area, with Ctrip noting that China's inbound tourism revenue as a percentage of GDP is significantly lower than that of developed countries, suggesting substantial growth potential [9]. - Ctrip is also focusing on the silver economy, targeting older consumers who have three times the spending power of younger demographics, and has seen significant growth in its "Old Friends Club" membership and transaction volume [9][10]. Market Challenges - Despite strong Q3 performance, the online travel industry faces renewed price competition, with major players like JD and Douyin entering the market [13]. - Ctrip's management emphasized the importance of quality service over price competition, as the market trends indicate a persistent decline in hotel and flight prices [13][14]. - The recovery of international business remains slow, with global airline capacity only at 88% of pre-pandemic levels, which could hinder faster growth for Ctrip's international operations [14]. - Ctrip is adopting a differentiated competitive strategy, including a global SOS service network for customer support and a refined marketing approach based on market maturity [14].

Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, reaching 19.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 194%, marking a rare instance where net profit exceeded revenue [1] - The profit surge was primarily driven by a strategic exit from a cross-border investment, specifically the sale of part of its stake in Indian online travel giant MakeMyTrip, yielding approximately 17 billion RMB [1][5] - Excluding this investment gain, Ctrip's Q3 net profit was substantially lower than the previous year's 6.8 billion RMB [1] Investment in MakeMyTrip - Ctrip's investment in MakeMyTrip began in January 2016, with an initial investment of 180 million USD in convertible bonds, positioning Ctrip as a significant player in the Indian market [1][2] - The investment was based on the strong growth potential of the Indian economy and the rapid rise of its middle class, which was estimated to have reached 140 million people [2] - MakeMyTrip was already the largest OTA in India at the time of investment, holding a 15% market share in domestic flights and experiencing a 50% growth in hotel revenue [2] Strategic Developments - Ctrip's stake in MakeMyTrip was further solidified through a series of strategic equity operations, culminating in Ctrip holding approximately 49% of the voting rights by the end of 2024 [3] - The investment's value increased over the nine years, with Ctrip reporting a book value of 6.2 billion RMB and 7.1 billion RMB for its stake in MakeMyTrip by the end of 2023 and 2024, respectively [3] - In June 2025, Ctrip sold part of its Class B shares in MakeMyTrip for 2.5 to 3 billion USD, reducing its voting rights from 45.3% to 16.9%, transitioning from a strategic to a financial investor [3][4] Market Position and Future Growth - Despite relinquishing control over MakeMyTrip, Ctrip remains the largest minority shareholder, allowing it to benefit from the growth of the Indian online travel market, which has seen MakeMyTrip achieve over 50% market share in the OTA sector [4] - MakeMyTrip's total gross booking value (GBV) for FY2025 is projected to reach 9.8 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.1% [4] Ctrip's Growth Engines - Ctrip's management highlighted three key growth engines: AI technology, inbound tourism, and targeted market segmentation [6][7] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance customer service and operational efficiency, with its AI travel assistant, TripGenie, experiencing over 200% user growth in the first half of 2025 [6] - Inbound tourism is identified as a rapidly growing segment, with significant potential for growth compared to developed countries, where inbound tourism revenue constitutes 1% to 5% of GDP [7] Market Challenges - Ctrip faces challenges from intensified price competition in the online travel industry, exacerbated by competitors like JD.com and Douyin [10] - Despite a strong Q3 performance, the overall market conditions remain challenging, with domestic hotel and flight prices showing only slight declines [10] - The recovery of international business is also constrained, with global airline capacity only reaching 88% of pre-pandemic levels, impacting Ctrip's growth potential [10] Competitive Strategy - In response to market challenges, Ctrip is adopting a differentiated competitive strategy, emphasizing high-quality service over price competition [11] - The company has announced a new 5 billion USD stock buyback plan, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [11] - Ctrip's ongoing investment in technology and customer support services is crucial for maintaining its competitive edge in the evolving travel market [11]

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) concluded on November 10, with Trip.com Group showcasing its innovative achievements and service ecosystem in the inbound tourism sector as the "official travel service partner" [2][3] - Trip.com received positive feedback from international attendees, highlighting its user-friendly interface and seamless payment process, which alleviated initial concerns about booking travel in China [2] - The platform's tailored services, such as "free half-day tours" and "AI itinerary planning," significantly enhance the travel experience for first-time visitors [2][3] Company Developments - Trip.com is leveraging AI technology and localized experiences to create a "warm bridge" connecting China with the world, facilitating easier and more confident exploration for international guests [4] - CEO Sun Jie announced that by 2025, the recovery rate of inbound tourism in China is expected to reach 123%, surpassing global and Asia-Pacific averages [4] - The company is focusing on content marketing to enhance inbound tourism experiences, moving away from traditional price competition [4] Service Innovations - Trip.com has improved its non-Chinese language service offerings by 72%, with real-time translation of hotel information into 26 languages, ensuring that small and medium-sized hotels can accommodate international guests without issues [4] - The AI itinerary assistant "Trip.Planner" integrates personalized data and real-time information to predict user interests, enabling one-click planning and booking [5] - The integrated platform TripGenie collaborates with partners to enhance service and marketing efficiency [5]