AI对在线旅游行业的改造，正在提速。 今年上半年，各大平台争相推出面向用户的各类AI旅游助手，刮起了一阵AI旋风： 马蜂窝在2025世界人工智能大会上带来了AI旅游助手APP，计划将其打造成目的地"专属管家"，不久前还上线了个性化攻略定制产品"AI路书"； 途牛在4月推出"AI助手小牛"，随后陆续更新多项功能； 飞猪则推出"飞猪AI问一问"，并第一时间接入DeepSeek-R1大模型； 同程旅行也搭上了DeepSeek这趟快车，在今年3月推出和DeepSeek整合的升级版旅游专属大模型"程心AI"； 携程则在更早前陆续推出垂直大模型"携程问道"、AI客服助手"TripGenie"； 和互联网其他细分领域相比，AI在在线旅游行业的渗透速度算不上快。尤其是C端应用侧，消费者需求高度个性化、涉及的场景及数据太多，一直是行业 一大挑战。 但深度思考、学习能力的进步，为AI提供了破壁机会。携程创始人梁建章在上半年的一场行业活动上表示，在线旅游AI智能体发展可能较慢，但整体仍 值得期待。同程旅行则在刚发布的财报中强调持续加大在AI应用领域的投入，让用户实现从"AI推荐"到"AI决策执行+预定执行"的闭环。途牛旗下的途致 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM) with a 12-month price target of $78.00, indicating an upside potential of 25.1% from the current price of $62.33 [1][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights Trip.com Group's strategic path to becoming the leading Online Travel Agency (OTA) in Asia within the next 3-5 years, emphasizing a full-funnel marketing strategy to enhance value for both suppliers and customers [1][19]. - The company aims to increase its overseas revenue contribution to approximately 50% in the long run, up from 35% currently, indicating significant growth potential outside of China [1][18]. - Management has established a $100 million Tourism Innovation Fund to support the development of the tourism industry, showcasing a commitment to innovation and growth [1][20]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 53,294 million in 2024 to RMB 77,228.5 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.7% [6][16]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from RMB 17,070 million in 2024 to RMB 23,500 million in 2027, with an EBITDA margin projected to stabilize around 30% [6][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from RMB 26.20 in 2024 to RMB 33.53 in 2027, indicating a strong profitability outlook [6][16]. Market Strategy - Trip.com Group is focusing on a full-funnel marketing strategy to improve sales conversion rates and enhance partner sales, with significant marketing campaigns planned throughout the year [1][19]. - The company is investing in technology and customer service, aiming to differentiate itself through high service quality and innovative solutions, such as AI-enhanced travel assistants [1][20]. - Management is prioritizing global expansion, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, through active marketing investments and localized product development [1][19]. Competitive Position - The report notes that Trip.com has achieved positive net profit in markets like Hong Kong, Macau, and Singapore, capturing a significant market share in these regions [1][19]. - The competitive landscape is described as benign, allowing Trip.com to attract customers with competitive pricing strategies [1][19]. - The company aims to achieve comparable profit levels to global peers like Booking.com through economies of scale and improved operational efficiency [1][19].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, Trip.com Group reported a net revenue of RMB 13.8 billion, representing a 16% increase year over year and a 9% increase quarter over quarter, driven by strong travel consumption and resilient demand across segments [23] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 7% year over year, reaching RMB 4.2 billion, compared to RMB 4 billion in the same period last year [13][27] - Diluted earnings per ordinary share were RMB 6.09 (US$0.84), while non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were RMB 5.90 (US$0.82) [27][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Accommodation reservation revenue for Q1 was RMB 5.5 billion, a 23% increase year over year and a 7% increase quarter over quarter [23] - Transportation ticketing revenue was RMB 5.4 billion, reflecting an 8% year over year increase and a 13% increase quarter over quarter [24] - Packaged tour revenue reached RMB 947 million, representing a 7% increase year over year and a 9% increase quarter over quarter [25] - Corporate travel revenue was RMB 573 million, a 12% increase year over year but an 18% decrease quarter over quarter, consistent with normal seasonality [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Inbound travel bookings surged by approximately 100% year over year, with hotel bookings from key visa-free countries in APAC increasing by over 240% [15][16] - Overall bookings on the international OTA platform grew by over 60% year over year, with APAC remaining a major growth engine [14] - Outbound air bookings returned to more than 120% of 2019 levels, outperforming the market by 30-40% [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities to improve user experience and streamline the travel booking process, with AI tools integrated throughout the customer journey [10][11] - Trip.com aims to capture the growing inbound travel market by enriching its offerings and improving service capabilities, including multilingual support and personalized itineraries [9] - The company is committed to expanding its market presence in both mature and emerging markets, leveraging strategic partnerships and localized operations [8][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of travel demand, supported by strong consumer confidence and favorable policies [29] - The company anticipates continued growth in inbound travel due to favorable visa policies and increased accessibility to China [16][72] - Management noted that leisure travel demand remains strong, with corporate users expecting their travel budgets to grow or remain unchanged by 2025 [48] Other Important Information - The company has repurchased approximately US$84 million of its shares, demonstrating a commitment to delivering value to shareholders [28][80] - Trip.com has launched free city tours for transit travelers in Shanghai and Beijing to enhance visitor experience [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on AI in the travel industry - Management discussed the strengths of vertical AI agents in providing real-time travel data and enhancing the travel experience, while general AI agents offer broader information [31][32] Question: Performance during the Labor Day holiday - Domestic hotel bookings increased by over 20% year over year, with inbound bookings surging by approximately 150% [36][37] Question: Outbound travel trends and expectations - Outbound bookings have consistently outperformed the industry, with strong growth in long-haul destinations like Europe [39][40] Question: Hotel price trends and outlook - Hotel ADR decreased by high single digits in Q1, but prices stabilized during the Labor Day holiday, with expectations for stabilization due to increasing travel demand [43][44] Question: Consumer sentiment amid macroeconomic conditions - Travel demand remains resilient, with leisure travel demand strong and corporate travel budgets expected to grow or remain stable [47][48] Question: Domestic competitive landscape - Competition in the domestic market is rationalized, with a strong focus on loyalty programs and customer service [51][52] Question: International business marketing strategies - The company is intensifying marketing efforts in Asia, leveraging mobile app user acquisition as a key growth strategy [59][60] Question: Inbound business developments - Inbound travel has seen strong momentum due to favorable policies, with significant growth in bookings [70][72] Question: Sales and marketing expenses outlook - Marketing expenses may fluctuate due to seasonality, but the company aims to improve marketing efficiencies in the long term [75][76] Question: Capital return program updates - The company plans to continue share buybacks and has approved a total amount of US$600 million for this purpose [79][80]

同程旅行日前发布"程心AI"升级版，从分析推理、产品功能、多语种覆盖等方面实现升级，可帮助 游客更顺畅地实现从"AI推荐"到"AI决策执行+预订执行"的闭环。此外，设计者还充分考虑到入境游市 场中"旅游信息获取难"的痛点，将AI产品的支持语言扩大至英语、法语、日语等9种，在AI生成的攻略 中为外国游客提供更精准、更实用的旅行信息。 TripGenie是携程国际平台Trip.com推出的AI助手，帮助海外用户解答旅行疑问。目前，该AI助手可 支持英语、日语、韩语、西班牙语、法语和德语等12种语言，为海外用户提供旅游信息智能助手服务， 节省用户在旅行规划上的时间和精力。随着海外游客对定制旅行和个性化推荐需求的增长，携程集团将 积极运用AI技术，为用户提供合适多元的旅行选择。 除了为用户提供机票、酒店、火车票等产品的智能搜索、自动比价、个性推荐、打包预订等一站式 服务，途牛旅游网推出的"AI助手小牛"会在模糊信息中精准分析识别用户的核心需求，迅速筛选最优选 择，并提供简明、清晰的推荐理由。此外，还能针对用户已选择的产品和行程进行智能评估。 近期，多家在线旅游平台纷纷推出AI助手，制定出行规划，提升游客体验，助力行业 ...