据路透调查：预计俄罗斯央行将在7月25日的会议上降息1个百分点至19%。 ...

今晚21:30，美联储主席鲍威尔将领衔全球主要央行行长在欧洲央行中央银行论坛进行小组会谈。外部 特朗普施压不断，内部降息意见分化，鲍威尔或再现"一碗水端平"？论坛关键问题又何解？点击查看... 相关链接 今晚21:30，鲍威尔领衔央行行长"炸场" ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the Chinese government bond market, specifically the 10-year treasury bonds and their yield performance [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Resistance Levels for Bond Yields** - The 10-year treasury bond yield is facing strong resistance around 1.6%, with previous dips reaching approximately 1.57% [1][2]. - Current yields are fluctuating between 1.65% and 1.7%, indicating limited adjustment space [1][2]. - Investors are advised to consider buying when yields approach 1.65% but to be cautious of potential pullbacks near 1.6% [1][2]. 2. **Expectations for Resuming Bond Trading** - Market expectations for the resumption of government bond trading need to be postponed [3][4]. - The central bank requires two conditions to be met: an increase in bond supply and favorable yield conditions [4]. - There is no significant increase in bond supply expected in July, with only minor peaks anticipated in August and November [4]. 3. **Central Bank's Stance on Yield Movements** - The central bank is more inclined to accept rising yields rather than significant declines, which pose systemic risks [5]. - To avoid breaching critical levels like 1.6%, the central bank may wait for the market to adjust to higher levels before considering resumption of trading [5]. 4. **Liquidity Management and Central Bank Operations** - The notion of "liquidity withdrawal" when treasury bonds mature is inaccurate; central bank purchases actually inject liquidity into the system [6][7]. - The process of purchasing bonds involves a two-step operation that ultimately increases liquidity, although maturity payments do not directly affect base currency and liquidity [7]. 5. **Interest Rate Cut Potential** - The central bank's capacity for interest rate cuts this year is limited, with a potential cut of about 10 basis points expected around late Q3 or early Q4 [8]. - The timing of any cuts will depend on external conditions, with the focus on stabilizing growth in response to economic pressures [8]. 6. **Current Market Liquidity Conditions** - The market is experiencing marginal tightening of liquidity, with the central bank maintaining a relatively loose stance but with limits [9][10]. - The seven-day repo rate is around 1.5%, and the overnight repo rate is approximately 1.4%, indicating controlled liquidity to prevent fund misallocation [9][10]. 7. **Impact of Interbank Leverage on Market Rates** - High interbank leverage is currently observed, with a 0.3% increase in leverage for every 10 basis points recovery in yields [12]. - The current high leverage levels make further increases challenging without a drop in short-term rates [12]. 8. **Future Market Outlook** - The bond market is expected to face strong resistance at the 1.6% level, with significant attention needed on the U.S.-China trade tensions and economic fundamentals [13]. - Economic pressures in Q3, particularly in consumption and exports, could lead to a decline in bond yields if conditions worsen [13]. Other Important Insights - The central bank's preference for currency depreciation over appreciation indicates a strategic approach to managing economic stability [5]. - The discussion highlights the importance of monitoring external factors, such as trade relations and economic indicators, which could significantly impact the bond market dynamics [13].

凯投宏观：加拿大Q2经济最多持平，加央行至少还将降息两次 金十数据6月27日讯，凯投宏观经济学家Bradley Saunders说，根据4月份的GDP数据，加拿大第二季度 经济产出最好的情况就是增长持平。加拿大4月份GDP下降0.1%，加拿大统计局预计5月份也会出现类 似的收缩。Saunders表示，第二季度存在"明显的收缩风险"。他补充说，在2025年剩余时间里，加拿大 的季度年化增长率将保持在1%以下，并促使加拿大央行至少再降息两次。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Canada is expected to experience an economic contraction in Q2, with consecutive declines in April and May, marking the first such occurrence since 2017 before the pandemic [1] Economic Outlook - Desjardins economists predict a slight contraction in Canada's GDP for the second quarter, indicating a downturn in economic activity [1] - The tracking of Q2 GDP by Desjardins shows clearer signs of this mild contraction [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The expectation is that the Bank of Canada will lower interest rates in the upcoming month in response to the economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Royal Bank of Canada suggests that the Bank of England may lower interest rates by a total of 75 basis points by the end of 2025 due to a potential decline in UK inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - UK labor market data appears to be weakening, increasing the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] - Persistent high inflation and accelerating wage growth may delay the anticipated rate cuts, presenting a risk to this outlook [1]

美国债券巨头品浩：应对未来经济衰退可能更多依赖央行降息 而非财政救助 智通财经6月26日电，美国债券巨头品浩(PIMCO)表示，应对未来经济衰退可能更多依赖央行降息，而 不是财政救助，因为全球公共债务水平过高，限制了各国政府的支出能力。 ...

CPI公布数据后，加拿大央行7月降息的可能性稳定在38%左右。 ...

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（6月23日） 其他： 美元： 1. 美国财长贝森特：稳定币可以巩固美元霸权地位。 2. 美联储戴利：美联储目标面临的风险大致平衡，需同时关注（就业和通胀）两方面。 非美主要货币： 1. 美元兑日元突破147，刷新5月14日以来新高。 2. 纽元兑美元、澳元兑美元双双触及一个月低位。 3. 欧洲央行管委森特诺：欧元区经济需要欧洲央行的额外刺激。 1. 美元兑泰铢一度涨至5月20日以来最高水平。 2. 穆迪：泰国央行本周可能降息25BP。 3. 三菱日联：菲律宾比索、韩元和泰铢更容易受油价飙升的影响。 美元/日元 澳元/美元 纽元/美元 美元/泰铢 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 23, 2025, most government bond futures closed lower, with the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year contracts down by 0.02%, 0.04%, and 0.05% respectively, while the 30-year contract rose by 0.02% [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera (511130) saw a slight increase of 0.01%, marking its 12th consecutive rise, with the latest price at 113.01 yuan [1] - The trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF was active, with a turnover of 17.19% and a transaction value of 1.339 billion yuan [1] Group 2: LPR and Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China announced the latest LPR rates on June 20, 2025, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year and above rate at 3.5%, unchanged from the previous month [1] - Looking ahead, there is potential for LPR to be lowered further in the second half of the year due to uncertainties in the external environment and efforts to stabilize the real estate market [2] - The anticipated reduction in LPR is expected to lower financing costs for enterprises and households, stimulating internal financing demand and supporting investment and consumption [2] Group 3: Fund Performance and Metrics - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera reached 7.778 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 274 million yuan over the past three days [3] - The fund has shown strong performance, with a 14.27% increase in net value over the past year, ranking 4th out of 406 index bond funds [3] - Historical data indicates a maximum monthly return of 5.35% and a 100% probability of profit over a one-year holding period [3] Group 4: Risk and Fees - The maximum drawdown since the inception of the 30-year government bond ETF is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [4] - The management fee for the 30-year government bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5] Group 5: Tracking Accuracy - As of June 20, 2025, the tracking error for the 30-year government bond ETF over the past month was 0.048% [6] - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which reflects the overall performance of the corresponding maturity government bonds [6]