"对他来说，对他的政治遗产来说，这里有一个真正的机会——那就是让他把美联储的非货 币政策职能调整到合适的规模。" 同时，鲍威尔也在一场监管会议上致欢迎辞，但他并没有对经济或货币政策前景发表评论，只称美联储 是一个充满活力的机构，愿意听取新想法以及关于如何改善大型银行资本框架的反馈。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 在特朗普政府官员对美联储主席鲍威尔发动常态化攻击之际，美国财政部长贝森特对他表示了支持，称 他认为美联储主席没有理由辞职。 "没有任何迹象告诉我他现在就应该下台，"贝森特周二在福克斯商业频道谈到这位美联储主席时 说。"他的任期到明年5月结束。如果他想坚持到底，我认为他应该这么做，如果他想提前离开，我认为 也可以。" 几个月来，鲍威尔一直受到特朗普的抨击，原因是他领导下的美联储因担心政府关税上调的通胀影响而 坚持维持利率不变。本月，一些共和党人也因美联储大楼翻新工程耗资巨大而对这位主席提出异议。贝 森特周一呼吁对美联储的非货币活动进行内部审查，包括翻新项目。贝森特说： 对于特朗普关税，贝森特还预测，在特朗普政府设定的8月1日截止日期之前，将会有"大量"贸易协议达 成。 "我认 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain its interest rates at 2% during its upcoming decision, as it assesses the economic risks posed by tariffs and other factors [1] Group 1: Economic Risks - The ECB is expected to pause interest rate cuts to evaluate the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1] - Concerns about the strong euro are suppressing price outlooks and further squeezing exporters [1] - Potential public finance issues in France may lead to new political crises [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - ECB policymakers may acknowledge an increased likelihood of rate cuts in September [1] - Morgan Stanley economists predict that ECB President Christine Lagarde will reiterate that growth risks are "tilted to the downside" in her upcoming statement [1] - The ECB is expected to keep the possibility of further rate cuts open without making a firm commitment [1]

Core Insights - Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Nicole Cervi report that U.S. import prices are rising, indicating that foreign exporters are not absorbing the higher tariff costs imposed by Trump [1] - The data shows that non-fuel import prices increased by 1.2% year-over-year in June, suggesting that domestic companies are forced to bear the higher tariff costs and are beginning to pass these costs onto consumers [1] Import Price Analysis - The import price data does not include tariffs, which implies that if exporters were absorbing the higher tariff costs, import prices should have decreased [1] - The lack of decline in import prices signals that domestic businesses are facing increased costs due to tariffs and are starting to transfer these costs to consumers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies analysts indicate that ASML's inability to guarantee growth by 2026 due to increasing uncertainty from Trump's tariffs marks a significant change in outlook [1] Group 1: Company Insights - ASML previously projected revenue growth for 2026, but recent comments suggest a shift in this expectation [1] - The CEO of ASML acknowledged rising uncertainty primarily driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, including tariffs [1]

特朗普称，美联储应迅速降息。特朗普称赞英伟达股价自特朗普关税以来上涨 ...

金十数据7月9日讯，花旗分析师表示，特朗普关税是铜市场的分水岭。他们在一份报告中写道，特朗普 关税将突然关闭向美国出口铜的窗口，或许在2025年的剩余时间里都如此，随着库存减少取代进口，进 口需求将崩溃。 花旗：2025年剩余时间向美国出口铜的窗口或将关闭 ...

美联储前理事沃什：美联储维持货币政策利率不变的做法让美国总统倍感挫折，我对此深表同情。应当 降息至更低水平。特朗普关税不会造成通胀影响。 ...

据环球邮报：加拿大驻华盛顿大使表示，加拿大仍致力于在与美国的贸易协议中取消所有特朗普关税。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. monetary policy may face two distinct paths in 2025, heavily influenced by the tariffs reimposed by the Trump administration, which could affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][2] - Bank of America economists predict that if the job market remains resilient, inflationary pressures from tariffs may prevent the Fed from lowering rates throughout 2025, which is their baseline scenario [1] - Conversely, if the economy experiences a "breakdown," significant easing measures may be implemented by the Fed as early as September, with a potential rate cut of 75 basis points [1] Group 2 - There is a notable divergence between Bank of America's predictions and the Federal Reserve's internal outlook, with about half of the FOMC members expecting to maintain rates until 2025, while the other half anticipates at least two rate cuts [2] - The "dot plot" from the Fed indicates a split in expectations, with some members suggesting a rate cut as early as July, while Bank of America economists argue that the median forecast is unrealistic due to its reliance on an ideal economic environment [2] - Historical accuracy of the Fed's dot plot predictions has been poor, particularly during periods of high economic uncertainty, making future forecasts challenging [2] Group 3 - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious approach in light of the unclear impact of Trump tariffs on inflation, suggesting the Fed will remain observant [5] - Concerns have been raised by economists regarding the potential negative impact on the overall economy if the Fed delays rate cuts, with some arguing that the labor market risks should be prioritized over inflation concerns [5] - Despite signs of a softening labor market, U.S. stock markets, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones, have shown resilience, with significant gains reported [5]

美联储威廉姆斯：不确定性与特朗普关税同等重要。 ...