近年来，去美元化逐渐成为国际讨论的热点话题。许多国家在面临美国频繁的金融制裁和美元霸权时，开始寻求摆脱美元的控制。例如，俄罗斯被排除出 SWIFT系统，金砖国家提议推出共同货币，全球超过三分之一的国家受到了美国的金融制裁。美元并不是一普通货币，它在全球贸易中占据着非常重要的地 位——54%的全球贸易是以美元计价的，90%的外汇交易与美元有关，全球超过一半的央行外汇储备也是美元。 美国频繁将美元用作制裁工具，尤其是在新兴经济体合作寻求替代方案的背景下，美元的全球霸权是否会走向崩塌呢？为了回答这个问题，我们首先需要理 解美元霸权的根基，以及替代方案所面临的真实困境。 美元霸权的基础非常牢固，首先体现在它作为全球结算货币的无可替代地位。在内罗毕的街头市场，商家毫不犹豫地接受美元，在曼谷的银行兑换外汇时， 美元被视为硬通货。甚至在加拉加斯的加油站，美元也可以直接支付。这种全球通用的现象，背后是强有力的数据支撑。 全球88%的货币交易中，至少有一方是美元。即便美国并未参与其中，54%的贸易仍然以美元计价。这个默认选择产生了强大的网络效应，许多国家选择使 用美元，不仅因为它稳定，更因为其他国家也都在使用，没人愿意跳出这个 ...

日元的疲软在其与欧元走势的对比中尤为凸显——欧元兑日元在周三一路升破180大关后，周四进一步 触及181.44的高位，这是自1999年欧元诞生以来的最高纪录水平。从反映日元兑多种货币实力的名义有 效汇率的日元指数来看，日元9月底以来的跌幅已达到3%，在G10货币中跌幅最大。 随着日元兑美元汇率跌至10个月低点，日本财务大臣片山皋月周三进一步加强了对日元贬值的警告力 度。她已向日本央行行长植田和男及增长战略大臣城内实确认了监测市场走势的必要性。 随着全球股市波动加剧，美元自9月以来持续上涨，导致非美货币尤其是部分亚洲货币普遍走弱，这令 部分亚洲央行是否会干预汇市，再度成为了全球市场上的一大焦点。 在这轮非美货币的贬值浪潮中，日韩货币颇为显眼地被"卷上了潮头"。其中，美元兑日元汇率隔夜已一 路升破了157关口，刷新了今年1月以来的新高。在高市早苗政府提出推行激进财政支出政策的背景下， 市场对日本财政恶化的警惕引发了抛售日元的压力。 亚币保卫战的"好消息"：8万亿美元外储弹药充足 可以说，这一轮亚洲货币面临的贬值压力，与美元反弹和全球货币政策格局的变化有着直接关系。智通 财经本月早些时候在美元指数升破100关口时就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant depreciation of Asian currencies, particularly the Japanese yen and South Korean won, against the backdrop of a strengthening US dollar and increasing market volatility, raising concerns about potential interventions by Asian central banks [1][4][6]. Group 1: Currency Depreciation - The Japanese yen has notably weakened, with the USD/JPY exchange rate surpassing 157, marking a new high since January [1]. - The euro has also strengthened against the yen, breaking the 180 and reaching 181.44, the highest level since the euro's inception in 1999 [3]. - The nominal effective exchange rate index for the yen shows a 3% decline since the end of September, the largest drop among G10 currencies [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Responses - Japanese Finance Minister has emphasized the need to monitor market trends closely due to the yen's depreciation [3]. - South Korean officials have expressed concerns over the won's decline, which has fallen approximately 3% in the past month, and are considering measures to defend the currency [4][5]. - The Indian rupee and Philippine peso have also faced depreciation pressures, with the rupee falling over 3% this year due to external factors [5]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Reserves - Asian economies currently hold substantial foreign exchange reserves, totaling nearly $8 trillion, providing a buffer against currency depreciation [6][7]. - Major central banks in the region have increased reserves by over $400 billion this year, with China and Japan leading in reserve growth [7]. - The import coverage ratio in the region remains robust, indicating a strong capacity to manage currency fluctuations [7].

Core Insights - The recent surge in the exchange rate, approaching 88.80, is primarily influenced by the overall strength of the US dollar and market adjustments to Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [1][2]. Policy Background and Market Expectations - In October, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, with most policymakers favoring rate stability to avoid hindering inflation's return to the 2% target [2]. - Disagreements emerged among officials regarding further rate cuts during the December meeting, with some arguing that continued easing could elevate inflation expectations and undermine public confidence in achieving inflation targets [2]. - Market tools indicate that the probability of a 25 basis point cut to 3.50%-3.75% in December dropped from 50.1% to 32.8%, reflecting a significant re-evaluation of monetary policy expectations [2]. Dollar Index and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The dollar index recently reached a five-month high of approximately 100.40, indicating the dollar's strength against a basket of currencies, which has supported the rise of the dollar against the Indian rupee [3]. - The dollar's strength is attributed to market expectations of sustained high interest rates by the Federal Reserve and uncertainties in the global economic environment [3]. Technical Analysis Perspective - Technically, the dollar-rupee exchange rate found support near the 20-day exponential moving average, ending a four-day decline, with the average positioned around 88.70 [5]. - Momentum indicators show the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded to around 60.00, suggesting potential bullish momentum if it remains above this level [5]. - Key support is identified at the August 21 low of 87.07, while the historical high of 89.12 is noted as a critical resistance level to watch [5].

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, raising concerns about potential intervention by the Bank of Korea [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The South Korean won has fallen 6% over the past three months, making it the worst-performing currency in the Asia-Pacific region [3]. - The USD/KRW exchange rate is nearing the historical high of 1487.45, with the won recently trading at 1468.77 [1][3]. - The recent announcement of 24-hour trading for the won starting next year has added pressure to its value [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Foreign investors have sold a net $5.2 billion worth of South Korean stocks this month, despite the KOSPI index reaching historical highs [3]. - The announcement of the 24-hour trading policy did not generate positive market sentiment, as the KOSPI index fell by 2.3% on the day of the announcement [3]. Group 3: Central Bank's Position - The Bank of Korea is under pressure to intervene in the foreign exchange market, with its governor indicating a willingness to act if excessive volatility is observed [4]. - The central bank's cautious stance contrasts with other Asian economies that have recently cut interest rates to support their currencies [5]. Group 4: Economic Context - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected South Korea's economic growth at only 0.9% this year, the lowest among major Asian economies [5]. - The yield on 10-year South Korean government bonds has risen to a 16-month high, indicating market expectations of an end to the current monetary easing cycle [5]. Group 5: Potential Strategies - Market participants speculate that one feasible strategy for the Bank of Korea to support the won could involve the national pension fund selling US dollars, a tactic previously employed [6]. - The National Pension Service of Korea has engaged in significant transactions to rebalance its portfolio, including selling dollars to purchase domestic stocks [6].

Core Viewpoint - ING Bank NV predicts that the Indian Rupee will have the highest potential for appreciation among high-yield Asian currencies next year, driven by a potential US-India trade agreement [1] Currency Outlook - The report led by economist Dipali Bagavath indicates that the Rupee is expected to strengthen to 87 Rupees per US dollar by the end of 2026, representing an approximate 2% increase from current levels [1] - The Rupee is currently trading below its estimated fair value, making it one of the most undervalued currencies in Asia [1] Current Performance - The Indian Rupee is the second worst-performing currency in Asia this year, having depreciated by 3.5% against the US dollar [1] - A 50% tariff imposed by the US on India has pressured the Rupee, prompting intervention from the Reserve Bank of India to counter speculative bets against the currency [1] Trade Agreement Impact - Recent comments from US President Donald Trump suggest that the US and India are close to finalizing a trade agreement, which could improve the outlook for the Rupee [1] - As of the latest data, the Rupee is trading at 88.70 per US dollar, hovering near historical lows after two consecutive days of decline [1] Investment Sentiment - Economists believe that a positive outcome from trade negotiations could lead to a significant rebound in the Indian Rupee [1] - India remains a strong contender among high-yield currencies due to robust fundamentals, manageable fiscal risks, and ongoing diversification of supply chains attracting investment [1] Market Trends - With a decline in Indian stock market valuations and high bond yields in the region, investor sentiment towards Indian assets is gradually improving [1] - Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, have shifted to increase their holdings in Indian stocks, anticipating a market rebound [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report by ING indicates that the Indian Rupee has the highest potential for appreciation among Asian high-yield currencies, particularly if a trade agreement is reached between India and the United States [1] Economic Outlook - The report forecasts that by the end of 2026, the exchange rate of USD to INR will rise to 87, representing an appreciation of approximately 2% from current levels [1] - The assessment is based on the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), which shows that the Rupee is currently trading below its fair value, indicating significant appreciation potential within the Asian region [1] Indian Economic Fundamentals - India's economic fundamentals remain robust, with manageable fiscal risks and a continued diversification of supply chains, which are attracting foreign investment [1] - As a leading high-yield economy, India continues to be attractive in global capital allocation [1] Trade Negotiation Impact - The report suggests that if trade negotiations progress favorably, the Indian Rupee could experience a substantial reversal in its performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Dutch International Bank predicts that the Indian Rupee has the highest appreciation potential among Asian high-yield currencies in the coming year, particularly if a trade agreement is reached between India and the United States [1] Group 1: Currency Outlook - The report forecasts that by the end of 2026, the Indian Rupee will appreciate to 87 Rupees per US Dollar, representing an increase of approximately 2% from current levels [1] - The current trading price of the Rupee is considered to be below its fair valuation based on the real effective exchange rate, indicating significant appreciation potential [1] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Economists highlight that if trade negotiations progress favorably, the Indian Rupee could experience a substantial turnaround [1] - India is recognized as a leading high-yield economy with solid fundamentals, manageable fiscal risks, and a diversified supply chain that continues to attract investment [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached its 35th day, tying the record for the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that if the shutdown lasts for 4 weeks, the annual GDP growth rate could decline by approximately 1 to 2 percentage points, resulting in an economic loss of about $7 billion [1] - If the shutdown extends to 6 weeks, the economic loss is projected to increase to $11 billion, and if it reaches 8 weeks, the loss could be as high as $14 billion [1] Group 2 - Despite the economic pressures from the government shutdown, the U.S. dollar index surpassed the 100 mark during Asian trading hours, marking the first time since August 1 [1] - The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, reaching a high of 154.48, the highest level since mid-February [1] - Following comments from Japan's Finance Minister regarding market volatility, the yen temporarily rebounded to 153.49 [1] Group 3 - The euro fell by 0.15% against the dollar, touching the 1.15 level, while the Singapore dollar dropped to 1.3070, the lowest since May 12 [2] - The Indonesian rupiah also declined by 0.5% to 16,733, marking a new low since September 26 [2] - The Indian rupee experienced a rebound after suspected intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, rising by 0.4% to 88.3925, the largest single-day gain since October 15 [2]

Core Insights - The Indian Rupee has depreciated against the US Dollar, falling below 88.50, marking a new low since October 14 due to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve [1] Currency Impact - The depreciation of the Indian Rupee is a direct response to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which is perceived as aggressive [1]