Group 1 - The Indian Rupee is supported in the range of 90.70 to 90.80, which is seen as significant following the recent US-India trade agreement [1] - Strong domestic liquidity in India is boosting investor sentiment, with the Reserve Bank of India injecting liquidity and maintaining a surplus of approximately 3 trillion Indian Rupees [1] - The US Dollar index has been declining for four consecutive trading days, trading around 96.70, ahead of the upcoming US employment report [1] Group 2 - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in March, with the first potential rate cut in June [2] - The US inflation expectations have eased, with the median future inflation expectation dropping to 3.1%, the lowest in six months [2] - A temporary trade framework has been established between the US and India, aimed at reducing tariffs and enhancing bilateral economic cooperation, contributing to a significant appreciation of the Indian Rupee [2] Group 3 - The USD/INR pair has retraced from the nine-day moving average, trading around 90.70, with a neutral to bearish momentum indicated by the RSI [4] - Initial support for the currency pair is near the 50-day exponential moving average at 90.50, with potential for further decline if this level is breached [4] - Resistance is noted at the nine-day moving average around 90.83, with potential upward movement targeting the historical high of 92.51 reached on January 28 [4]

周二，该货币对在连续两个交易日上涨后回落，前一交易日印度卢比兑美元表现疲软。银行家表示，当前市场对冲活动及本地资金流动正常，近期汇率变化 是市场多重因素博弈的结果，非短期资金异动所致。 股权流入改善为印度卢比提供了支撑。周一，外国投资者净买入约2.5亿美元印度股票，使得当月外资净买入总额达约15亿美元。1月份外国投资者曾出现近 40亿美元资金外流，短短一个多月，外资流向从大幅外流转为稳步流入，这一初步转变缓解了卢比下行压力。 市场对美联储政策走向已有共识，普遍认为3月份将维持利率不变，首次降息大概率在6月份，9月份可能再次降息。这一预期与美国通胀预期缓解相关：1月 份美国中位未来通胀预期降至3.1%，为六个月最低，较12月份的3.4%明显回落。但食品价格预期仍维持在5.7%高位，三年期和五年期通胀预期稳定在3%， 通胀回落仍有不确定性。 美印近期达成的临时贸易框架，是限制印度卢比下行的关键。上周五，新德里与华盛顿公布这一框架，旨在降低双边关税、重塑能源合作、深化经济合作。 这是两国经长时间谈判取得突破后的成果，框架落地推动卢比创下三年多来最强劲周涨幅。 美联储官员近期表态凸显"数据依赖"的政策立场。旧金山联储 ...

Core Insights - The US and India have reached a trade agreement, significantly reducing tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, which has positively impacted Indian financial markets [1][2][3] - The Nifty 50 index surged nearly 5%, approaching its historical high from January, while the Indian rupee appreciated over 1% against the US dollar [1][2][3] - The agreement is expected to alleviate long-standing negative factors affecting the Indian market, potentially leading to a resurgence of foreign investment [2][3][4] Market Reactions - The Nifty 50 index's increase positions it for its best single-day performance in five years, and the rupee is on track for its largest single-day gain since November 2022 [1][3] - Following the announcement, foreign investors, who had been net sellers, may adjust their asset allocation towards Indian markets [2][4] Economic Context - The trade agreement follows a period of adverse effects on the Indian market due to increased tariffs imposed by the US in late August, which led to significant foreign capital outflows [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the U.S. Treasury yields showed a pattern of long - end rising and short - end falling, with the yield curve becoming steeper. The market still bets on a possible easing cycle later this year, driving down short - term interest rates, while long - term inflation and term premium expectations are under pressure due to uncertainties in fiscal and trade policies, budget deficits, and potential threats to the Fed's independence [1][12]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% as expected in the January FOMC meeting. The Fed revised up its outlook on the U.S. economy, believing that economic growth momentum has strengthened, the labor market has shown signs of stabilization, and inflation remains high but has not deteriorated further [2][12]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh's past stance was hawkish, but he has shown signs of turning dovish recently. His future policy stance will be an important observation indicator for the market [2][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 U.S. Treasury Yield Review This Week 3.1.1 Warsh's Nomination and the Steepening of U.S. Treasury Yields - This week (January 23 - January 30, 2026), the changes in U.S. Treasury yields were as follows: 1 - month (-6bp, 3.72%), 1 - year (-5bp, 3.48%), 2 - year (-8bp, 3.52%), 5 - year (-5bp, 3.79%), 10 - year (+2bp, 4.26%), 30 - year (+5bp, 4.87%). The yield curve became steeper [1][12]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% in the January FOMC meeting. Waller and Milan voted against, advocating a 25bp rate cut. The Fed revised up its outlook on the U.S. economy [2][12]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh defeated other candidates. His past stance was hawkish, but he has shown dovish signs recently [2][13]. 3.1.2 This Week's U.S. Treasury Auctions - On January 26, a $69 billion 2 - year U.S. Treasury bill auction was held. The winning yield was 3.580%, the bid - to - cover ratio was 2.75 times, and the tail was - 1.375 [18]. - On January 27, a $70 billion 5 - year U.S. Treasury bill auction was held. The winning yield was 3.823%, the bid - to - cover ratio was 2.34 times, and the tail was 0.300 [18]. - On January 29, a $44 billion 7 - year U.S. Treasury bill auction was held. The winning yield was 4.018%, the bid - to - cover ratio was 2.45 times, and the tail was 0.175 [19]. 3.2 U.S. Macroeconomic Indicator Comments - The U.S. PPI in December had a monthly环比 increase of 0.5%, much higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 3%, indicating persistent inflation risks. The U.S. consumer confidence index in January dropped 9.7 points to 84.5, lower than the forecast of 90.6, hitting the lowest level since May 2014, reflecting consumers' increased concerns about the economic outlook [3][27]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate in the 3.5% - 3.75% range, pausing the easing cycle after three consecutive rate cuts. This decision reflects the Fed's recognition of the current economic resilience and its difficult balance between high inflation and a weak labor market [3][28]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending January 24 decreased to 209,000, slightly lower than the previous week's revised figure of 210,000 and slightly higher than the market expectation of 206,000. The number of continued claims decreased to 1.827 million, the lowest since September 2024, showing a mild and stable labor market [3][28]. 3.3 Comments on Major Asset Classes - **Bonds**: German bond yields fell across the board, and Japanese bond yields fluctuated slightly overall. The decline in German bond yields was due to the market's expectation of the ECB maintaining or relaxing monetary policy. The movement of Japanese bond yields was affected by the slowdown in inflation and the Bank of Japan's cautious policy stance [30]. - **Equities**: Global equity markets were significantly differentiated, with Asian markets performing strongly. The top three gainers were the Korea Composite Index (+4.70%), the Hang Seng Index (+2.38%), and the India Sensex30 (+0.90%). The top three losers were the Vietnam VN30 (-2.31%), the German DAX (-1.45%), and the Nikkei 225 (-0.97%) [31]. - **Commodities**: Bitcoin, LME aluminum, and the hog index were under pressure. The top three gainers were Brent crude oil (+7.30%), London silver (+4.23%), and LME copper (+3.48%). The top three losers were Bitcoin (-5.97%), LME aluminum (-2.05%), and the hog index (-1.36%) [32]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and South Korean won strengthened, while the U.S. dollar and some Asian currencies declined. The top three gainers were the Japanese yen (+2.99%), the Swiss franc (+2.60%), and the South Korean won (+1.78%). The top three losers were the Indian rupee (-0.58%), the Hong Kong dollar (-0.37%), and the U.S. dollar (-0.24%) [33]. 3.4 Market Tracking - The report provides multiple charts showing the changes in bond yields, stock indices, commodity prices, and foreign exchange rates of major global economies this week, as well as the latest economic data panels of the United States, Japan, and the Eurozone [35][38][41][43][46][53][58].

Group 1 - The recent decline of the US dollar index has raised concerns about "de-dollarization" and geopolitical risks, prompting market attention [1][15] - Bloomberg Industry Research predicts that the Chinese yuan and Malaysian ringgit could generate excess returns for Asian currency portfolios due to structural advantages and reduced correlation with the dollar [1][15] - The relative performance of low-interest and high-interest Asian currencies will depend on the timing of the "de-dollarization" trend [1][15] Group 2 - Zhao Zhixuan, Bloomberg's Chief Forex and Rates Strategist for Asia, suggests that the dollar index may need to fall below 90 to trigger policy intervention, indicating further downside potential from current levels [1][15] - The yuan is expected to be the most favored currency this year, with the USD/CNY exchange rate potentially challenging the 6.7 to 6.8 level [1][11] - The dollar faces multiple structural challenges, including portfolio rotation away from US assets, ongoing arbitrage trading, and expectations of a weak dollar policy [1][15] Group 3 - European institutions, including Danish pension funds, have begun to exit the US Treasury market, with China's holdings of US debt at their lowest level since 2008 [2][16] - The trend of reducing US Treasury holdings is likely to continue, but a complete sell-off is unrealistic due to the lack of alternative markets with similar depth and liquidity [2][16] - The future may see a coexistence of multiple reserve currencies and regionalization of currency use, although the dollar's leading position is unlikely to be replaced in the short term [2][16] Group 4 - Concerns over Japan's "monetary fiscalization" have led to selling pressure on its long-term bonds, which may transmit pressure to global bond markets [2][24] - The Japanese yen is expected to strengthen against the dollar this year, with a reasonable equilibrium exchange rate around 129 [2][24][25] - Other Asian currencies are expected to show divergence, with low-interest currencies like the Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Singapore dollar benefiting from a declining dollar cycle [2][12] Group 5 - The yuan is viewed as the most promising currency this year, with expectations of steady appreciation against both the dollar and a basket of currencies [2][11][26] - Factors supporting the yuan's appreciation include favorable policies, interest rate differentials, and capital inflows from the stock market [2][11][26] - The Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Singapore dollar are also expected to strengthen, while high-interest currencies like the Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah, and Indian rupee may weaken due to fiscal stability concerns [2][12][29]

周二，印度国家证交所蓝筹股CNX Nifty指数收涨0.51%，报25175.40点，日线图上，处于1月2日涨至 26328点创收盘历史最高、1月5日涨至26373.20点创盘中历史最高以来的持续回撤趋势之中。印度中盘 股指数收涨0.59%，标普BSE Sensex指数收涨0.39%，孟买证交所500指数收涨0.50%。印度卢比兑美元 收涨0.25%，报91.7238卢比，脱离上一个交易日所创历史最低位91.9713卢比。印度10年期国债收益率 涨5.6个基点，报6.719%，全天持续走高，逼近2025年3月5日顶部6.753%和2022年6月16日顶部7.618%。 ...

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee is facing multiple pressures, including foreign capital outflows, a strengthening US dollar, limited support from the central bank, and trade disputes with the US, pushing it to a one-month low [1][3] - As of January, foreign investors have withdrawn $1.6 billion from the Indian stock market, continuing a trend from the previous year where $17 billion was withdrawn, highlighting the increasing capital outflow issue [3][4] - The depreciation of the Rupee poses a dual threat to India, a net oil importer, as it raises inflation risks and erodes returns for foreign investors, with the Rupee down approximately 5% in 2025, making it the worst-performing currency in Asia [3][4] Group 2 - The capital outflow is the most direct pressure on the Rupee, with foreign investors withdrawing $1.6 billion from the Indian stock market in January alone, following a total of $17 billion in 2025 [4] - The delay in trade agreements with the US has further dampened market sentiment, with a proposed 50% tariff on Indian goods set to take effect on August 27, 2025 [4] - The reliance on volatile foreign capital inflows has increased, with MUFG Bank Ltd. adjusting its Rupee forecast to 92 by the end of September, down from a previous expectation of 90.80 [4]

Group 1: USD Dynamics - The core variable for the USD remains the Federal Reserve, with recent discussions indicating heightened congressional interest in monetary policy [3] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have signaled that there is no urgent need for rate cuts, suggesting that the USD will have policy support in the short term [5] - The market is expected to experience more volatility from adjustments in expectations rather than a trend reversal [5] Group 2: EUR Challenges - The Eurozone is facing significant economic pressures, with Germany's economic growth projected at only 0.2% for 2025, highlighting a lack of momentum [6] - The European Central Bank's medium-term outlook shows inflation returning to target levels, but economic growth is expected to remain between 1.2% and 1.4%, which may not provide strong support for the Euro [6] - The Euro's performance is likely to depend more on relative stability rather than a clear strengthening [6] Group 3: JPY Outlook - The Japanese Yen is in focus due to potential interest rate stability and concerns over its weakness, with the possibility of coordinated intervention being discussed [7] - Internal divisions within the Bank of Japan suggest that interest rate hikes may occur sooner than the market currently anticipates, increasing sensitivity to news [7] - The volatility in the Yen impacts various sectors, including consumer spending and international trade [7] Group 4: Other Currencies and Regional Dynamics - Other regions are also experiencing significant developments, such as the UK delaying employment survey releases, reflecting challenges in data quality and policy judgment [8] - India aims to conclude trade negotiations with the EU by January 26, which could positively affect regional currencies and capital flows [8] - In Asia, Hong Kong's finance chief has stated there will be no reduction in stock stamp duty, while South Korea's finance minister emphasizes the need to halt excessive depreciation of the Won [8] - The overall forex market is characterized by a phase of "policy expectations driving dynamics and differentiated fundamentals" [8]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月16日，印度卢比兑美元汇率跌破90.50，当日下跌0.28%。 ...

Group 1 - HSBC expresses a positive outlook on Chinese assets, recommending investors to increase holdings in mainland China and Hong Kong stocks by 2026 and to establish long positions in the renminbi [1] - The bank suggests a shift in investment focus towards assets supported by domestic demand amid potential market volatility, particularly favoring stocks in China, Hong Kong, India, and Indonesia [2] - HSBC advises selling Swiss francs and buying offshore renminbi, anticipating a gradual appreciation of the renminbi due to China's industrial upgrades and technological self-sufficiency [1][3] Group 2 - HSBC recommends an overweight position in stocks from mainland China, Hong Kong, India, and Indonesia, while advising a reduction in exposure to the crowded South Korean market due to concerns over the sustainability of AI-driven growth [2] - The bank highlights the potential for interest rate cuts by some Asian central banks to support local stock markets, although the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may limit this space [4] - In the fixed income sector, HSBC favors a curve steepening strategy and is optimistic about bonds from India and the Philippines, while being cautious about Thailand and Indonesia [4]