澳新 银行报告称，印度卢比在中短期内可能会呈贬值倾向，表现弱于亚洲其他货币。印度债券收益率 前景不明，而持续的出口风险、进一步降息的空间有限以及信贷需求不足将继续令卢比承压。从制造业 竞争力的角度来看，卢比看起来被高估了，尤其是相对于人民币等货币，而且尽管在美元疲软的环境 下，卢比表现不佳，这一直令人意外。 ...

美元对印度卢比走势图 印度卢比"摇摇欲坠"之际，印度央行出手稳定汇率。据悉，印度央行本月在境内和境外货币市场抛售美 元，以支撑卢比汇率。印度央行至少抛售了50亿美元。 不只是印度卢比，近期日元汇率表现也偏弱。回顾来看，日元对美元汇率从7月初的144关口左右震荡下 行，在月末时点跌破150关口，月内累计跌幅接近4.7%。8月以来，日元对美元汇率小幅升值，截至8月 12日，日元对美元汇率维持在148关口附近波动。 ◎记者 陈佳怡 黄冰玉 过去一段时间，在贸易政策悬念丛生、利率路径更趋复杂的背景下，全球汇市起伏波动。 受美国贸易政策冲击，印度卢比对美元汇率近期走势疲软，接近历史低点。据悉，印度央行已抛售了至 少50亿美元以支撑卢比汇率。 全球汇市波动之下，美元亦难"独善其身"。在短暂反弹过后，市场重拾"弱美元"叙事，近期美元指数在 98关口上方震荡。人民币则"淡定"应对，凸显韧性。 崩塌：印度卢比、日元表现弱势 今年以来，印度卢比对美元汇率累计贬值逾2%，成为表现最差的亚洲主要货币之一。尤其是近两周， 印度卢比对美元汇率走势尽显疲态。Wind数据显示，上周，印度卢比对美元汇率跌至88.1075，接近历 史低点。 这 ...

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee is expected to be one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia due to the pressure from increased tariffs imposed by the US, which is impacting India's already fragile economic recovery [1][3] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Barclays predict that the Rupee's exchange rate may fall to a historical low by the end of the year, driven by weak foreign capital inflows and tariff impacts [1][3] - The Indian stock market has experienced an outflow of $11 billion due to economic slowdown, and the central bank's interest rate cuts have further weakened support for the currency [1][3] Group 2 - Barclays estimates that high tariffs could reduce India's GDP growth rate by approximately 30 basis points [3] - The market is focused on the Indian central bank's policy meeting on August 6 for clues on interest rate direction and Rupee trends, following an unexpected 50 basis point rate cut last month [3] - Despite foreign exchange reserves being near historical highs, Citigroup economists believe that uncertainty around tariffs limits the central bank's motivation to aggressively support the Rupee [3] Group 3 - The Rupee has depreciated by 1.2% last week, reaching an exchange rate of 87.5275 Rupees per US dollar, marking the largest weekly decline since December 2022 [3] - Some analysts remain optimistic about a potential trade agreement between the US and India, which could improve the situation for the Rupee [3] - Weak foreign capital inflows continue to be a headwind for the Rupee, with limited prospects for significant bond market inflows due to the central bank's indication of limited rate cut space [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates an increase in short positions against the Indian Rupee, suggesting a bearish sentiment among investors [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that the short positions in the Indian Rupee have risen significantly, reflecting growing concerns about the currency's stability [1] - It mentions that this trend is influenced by various economic factors, including inflation and interest rate expectations in India [1] - The report also notes that market participants are closely monitoring the Reserve Bank of India's policy decisions, which could impact the currency's performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dominance of the US dollar as the global reserve currency is facing significant challenges, with a potential shift towards a multipolar currency system becoming increasingly likely [1][9][10] Group 1: Challenges to Dollar Dominance - The US dollar has maintained its status since the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, supported by the US's strong industrial and military power [1] - The invasion of Ukraine by Russia and subsequent exclusion from the SWIFT system have catalyzed a shift in global financial dynamics [1][3] - Countries in the Global South are actively resisting US financial hegemony, seeking to reclaim economic sovereignty [1][3] Group 2: Emergence of Alternative Currencies - West African nations are proposing a shared new African currency, symbolizing a commitment to decolonization and financial independence [3] - The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is discussing the long-delayed "Eco" currency, indicating a move towards establishing financial autonomy [3] - The rise of pan-Africanism reflects a collective awakening in economic consciousness, with calls for a common currency representing dignity and future direction [3] Group 3: European Response to US Financial Policies - European countries are seeking ways to counteract the US's financial weaponization, with Italy and Germany recalling gold reserves from the US [3][5] - The potential for France and the Netherlands to follow suit could signify a decline in US dominance in European currency asset custody [5] - The US's significant fiscal deficit, exceeding $36 trillion, raises concerns about its long-term financial stability and the sustainability of the dollar's reserve status [5][7] Group 4: Global Economic Implications - The current global economic structure is asymmetrical, with the US benefiting from the dollar's reserve status while other countries face inflation pressures due to dollar overproduction [5][7] - The reliance on military spending funded by dollar printing exacerbates economic instability, particularly for developing nations whose currencies are often pegged to the dollar [7] - The transition towards a multipolar currency system is not a collapse of the dollar but a transformation, with countries increasingly questioning the financial rules set by Washington [9][10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The future may see a multipolar currency system where regions rely on local or joint currencies, such as the potential African "Eco" currency and the Chinese yuan [9] - The US faces a critical choice between reforming its financial practices and clinging to outdated privileges, which could lead to a loss of global influence [10] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the moral authority of the US are diminishing, prompting a shift towards greater independence and diversity in global financial systems [10]

Group 1 - The bullish positions on the Singapore dollar have reached the highest level since May 2025 [1] - Investors' bullish bets on the New Taiwan dollar have hit the highest level since 2008 [1] - There is a decrease in bearish sentiment towards the Indian rupee [1]

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the US dollar is expected to continue, creating upward pressure on Asian currencies, particularly in the second half of 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Asian Currency Strength - Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish outlook on the US dollar, predicting a decrease in marginal funds flowing into US assets and a gradual rotation towards non-US assets [1][2][5]. - Asian currencies, including the New Taiwan Dollar, South Korean Won, Singapore Dollar, and Malaysian Ringgit, have appreciated by approximately 5-10% against the US dollar this year, with this trend likely to continue into the summer [1]. Group 2: Specific Currency Insights - The South Korean Won is favored by Goldman Sachs, with expectations of continued strong performance due to recent political stability and government initiatives aimed at boosting market confidence [6]. - The New Taiwan Dollar is also expected to face further appreciation pressure, driven by significant accumulated US dollar deposits and unhedged overseas assets held by Taiwanese insurance companies [9]. - The Chinese Yuan is projected to receive support from resilient economic growth and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations, contributing to a stable exchange rate against the dollar [10]. - In contrast, the Indian Rupee is anticipated to lag behind other Asian currencies due to the Reserve Bank of India's potential actions to mitigate large short forward positions, limiting upward pressure on the currency [11].

Group 1 - Most Asian currencies strengthened as data indicated improvement in Chinese business activity, while the US dollar weakened due to heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][3] - The US dollar remains at a three-year low, pressured by rising government debt concerns, especially with a comprehensive tax cut and spending reduction bill progressing in the Senate [3][7] - The Chinese yuan appreciated slightly, with the June PMI showing a smaller-than-expected contraction in manufacturing and a rebound in non-manufacturing activity [4][5] Group 2 - The data reflects an improvement in Chinese business activity, with a recovery in overseas orders following the agreement to reduce trade tariffs between the US and China [5] - Despite the improvement, Chinese manufacturing has contracted for the third consecutive month, indicating ongoing pressure from relatively high US tariffs and weak domestic demand [5] - The US dollar index and futures fell by 0.2%, remaining close to the lowest level since early 2022, amid market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6] Group 3 - Concerns over rising US government debt due to the tax cut bill are weighing on the dollar, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating an increase of nearly $3.3 trillion in debt over the next decade [7] - The Asian currencies generally benefited from the weak dollar, although some lackluster data and uncertainty regarding Trump's trade policies limited larger gains [7] - The Japanese yen fell by 0.4% against the dollar, despite lower-than-expected industrial production growth in May [9]

Group 1: Core Views - The US dollar index fell below 97, reaching a new low since February 2022, with a daily drop of 0.72%, while non-USD currencies strengthened significantly [1][4] - Morgan Stanley analysts predict a 40% chance of a US economic recession in the second half of 2025, primarily due to escalating tariffs leading to stagflation [2][6] - UBS Wealth Management's report indicates that the dollar index has dropped to a three-year low, with expectations of further weakening due to uncertainties in the US economic outlook and rising fiscal deficit concerns [5] Group 2: Non-USD Currency Dynamics - The Taiwanese dollar has appreciated significantly, with foreign speculative funds increasing, prompting Taiwan's central bank to request the exit of overseas investors engaging in speculative bets through ETFs [1][8] - Despite the strengthening of non-USD currencies, investors have reduced long positions in the Thai baht and increased short positions in the Indian rupee, while turning bearish on the Philippine peso for the first time since early March [1][9] - The trend of foreign investors using reverse ETFs to hedge against market risks while betting on the appreciation of the Taiwanese dollar has raised concerns about its impact on the export-oriented economy [8]

Group 1 - Investors have significantly reduced their long positions in the Thai baht [1] - There is an increasing bearish sentiment towards the Indian rupee among investors [1] - Sentiment towards the Philippine peso has turned negative, with a shift to a bearish outlook [1]