Core Viewpoint - The impact of alpha factors on China's export growth is increasingly significant, with expectations of a 1-3% growth in 2026 despite potential risks from alpha factors [1][4]. Group 1: Alpha Factors Impacting Exports - The article emphasizes the importance of alpha factors such as tariff changes, order front-loading, re-export regulations, and currency fluctuations on exports, moving away from reliance on beta factors [1][7]. - The new trade pattern is shaped by tariff shocks and geopolitical shifts, particularly the "interconnected yet separate" relationship between China and the U.S. [2][9]. - The performance of new industries in exports is attributed to China's internal economic transformation and industrial upgrades [2][14]. Group 2: 2026 Export Outlook - Order front-loading effects are largely absorbed, with limited risk of further exposure in the future [3][22]. - Re-export regulations are expected to have a minimal impact, as the focus is primarily on low-value or non-processed re-exports [3][25]. - The likelihood of increased tariffs is low, with diminishing impacts from existing tariffs due to effective countermeasures by China [3][32]. - Currency appreciation is anticipated to reduce export price increments, but the overall export volume may remain stable [3][37]. - The global economic outlook is expected to support China's export growth, with IMF predicting a recovery in global GDP growth in 2026 [4][41].

Group 1: Export Growth Outlook - The α factors are increasingly influencing China's export growth, with expectations of a 1-3% growth in 2026 despite external demand factors[1] - The report emphasizes the low risk of a decline in α factors, while β factors remain resilient[1] Group 2: Key α Factors - Tariff changes, order overdraw, re-export regulations, and exchange rate fluctuations are critical α factors affecting exports[1] - The impact of order overdraw is gradually being digested, with optimistic views suggesting limited further risks[1] - Re-export regulations primarily affect low-value or non-processed "label re-export" products, with an estimated 1.3% decline in total exports if a 40% tariff is imposed[1] - The probability of significant tariff increases is low, as retaliatory tariffs are limited and global tariff negotiations are mostly settled[1] - The appreciation of the local currency may reduce export price increments, but the overall export volume is expected to remain stable[1] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The IMF predicts a recovery in global GDP growth in 2026 compared to 2025, which supports the expectation that global trade growth will at least maintain 2025 levels[1] - The report highlights that the influence of global demand on China's export growth is diminishing, with a decoupling from traditional indicators like global PMI[1] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include increased compliance scrutiny at regional ports and a general rise in tariffs across key global industries[1]