Group 1: Export Growth Outlook - The α factors are increasingly influencing China's export growth, with expectations of a 1-3% growth in 2026 despite external demand factors[1] - The report emphasizes the low risk of a decline in α factors, while β factors remain resilient[1] Group 2: Key α Factors - Tariff changes, order overdraw, re-export regulations, and exchange rate fluctuations are critical α factors affecting exports[1] - The impact of order overdraw is gradually being digested, with optimistic views suggesting limited further risks[1] - Re-export regulations primarily affect low-value or non-processed "label re-export" products, with an estimated 1.3% decline in total exports if a 40% tariff is imposed[1] - The probability of significant tariff increases is low, as retaliatory tariffs are limited and global tariff negotiations are mostly settled[1] - The appreciation of the local currency may reduce export price increments, but the overall export volume is expected to remain stable[1] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The IMF predicts a recovery in global GDP growth in 2026 compared to 2025, which supports the expectation that global trade growth will at least maintain 2025 levels[1] - The report highlights that the influence of global demand on China's export growth is diminishing, with a decoupling from traditional indicators like global PMI[1] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include increased compliance scrutiny at regional ports and a general rise in tariffs across key global industries[1]

Export and Import Growth - In July 2025, China's export growth rate was 7.2% (previous value 5.9%), while import growth was 4.1% (previous value 1.1%) [5] - Month-on-month, July exports decreased by 1.1% compared to June, slightly below seasonal levels but higher than the same period in 2024 [5] - The trade surplus decreased in July 2025 [5] Country-Specific Trends - Exports to ASEAN and Latin America saw significant increases, with growth rates of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, likely due to preemptive shipments before August tariffs [11] - Exports to the United States decreased by 21.7%, while exports to the EU and other regions increased by 9.2% and 19.3% respectively [11] Product-Specific Insights - In the machinery and electronics sector, equipment exports remained strong, while consumer electronics showed a decline due to previous over-shipments [18] - Labor-intensive imports decreased, while grain imports saw a notable increase [23] Future Outlook and Risks - Export growth is expected to moderate, with key risks including the implementation of Section 232 tariffs and increased scrutiny on transshipments [29] - The resilience of capital goods exports is noteworthy, as geopolitical tensions may lead to increased demand for Chinese equipment [29]

Core Viewpoint - The export performance in July was slightly better than expected, driven by technical rush shipments ahead of tariff implementation, but a general decline is anticipated in the future due to various risks including the 232 tariffs and export regulations from ASEAN countries [1][15]. Group 1: Export Performance - In July 2025, China's export growth rate was 7.2%, up from 5.9% in the previous month, while import growth was 4.1%, an increase from 1.1% [4]. - The export growth to ASEAN and Latin America showed significant improvement, recording 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 21.7% [8]. - The overall trade surplus decreased, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [4]. Group 2: Product and Regional Analysis - Equipment exports remained strong, while consumer electronics showed a decline due to prior rush shipments; labor-intensive imports decreased [11]. - The demand for capital goods from China is expected to remain resilient in the medium term, despite geopolitical tensions and a trend towards de-globalization [2][16]. Group 3: Future Trends and Risks - Future export trends are expected to moderate, with potential short-term declines in August due to the tapering of rush shipments and the impact of new tariffs [16]. - Key risks include the potential for increased tariffs on exempt products and the enforcement of stricter re-export regulations by Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries [16].