Core Viewpoint - The impact of alpha factors on China's export growth is increasingly significant, with expectations of a 1-3% growth in 2026 despite potential risks from alpha factors [1][4]. Group 1: Alpha Factors Impacting Exports - The article emphasizes the importance of alpha factors such as tariff changes, order front-loading, re-export regulations, and currency fluctuations on exports, moving away from reliance on beta factors [1][7]. - The new trade pattern is shaped by tariff shocks and geopolitical shifts, particularly the "interconnected yet separate" relationship between China and the U.S. [2][9]. - The performance of new industries in exports is attributed to China's internal economic transformation and industrial upgrades [2][14]. Group 2: 2026 Export Outlook - Order front-loading effects are largely absorbed, with limited risk of further exposure in the future [3][22]. - Re-export regulations are expected to have a minimal impact, as the focus is primarily on low-value or non-processed re-exports [3][25]. - The likelihood of increased tariffs is low, with diminishing impacts from existing tariffs due to effective countermeasures by China [3][32]. - Currency appreciation is anticipated to reduce export price increments, but the overall export volume may remain stable [3][37]. - The global economic outlook is expected to support China's export growth, with IMF predicting a recovery in global GDP growth in 2026 [4][41].

Macro Research - The report emphasizes the increasing impact of alpha factors on China's export growth, highlighting the importance of tariff changes, order overdrafts, re-export regulations, and exchange rate fluctuations in addition to external demand factors. It is projected that exports will achieve a growth rate of 1-3% in 2026, with low risk of a decline in alpha factors [2][4][18]. Real Estate Research - The real estate sector remains in a downward trend as of September, with a significant decline in front-end investments, indicating continued pressure on prices. The gap between new and second-hand housing prices is widening, suggesting diminishing marginal benefits from new projects [2][7][8]. - In the first nine months, real estate investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year, and even with a potential increase in the last quarter, a double-digit decline is expected for the year. The focus will be on how to mitigate this decline, with urban renewal and new technology infrastructure seen as potential areas for support [7][8]. Biomedicine Research - The brain-computer interface (BCI) industry is anticipated to experience significant development opportunities driven by technological breakthroughs, policy support, and capital investment. The market outlook for BCI in healthcare and consumer sectors is promising [2][10][11]. - Domestic policies are actively promoting the development of the BCI industry, with various government departments issuing supportive measures since the 13th Five-Year Plan. This includes guidelines for enhancing innovation capabilities and establishing a reliable industry system by 2030 [11][30]. - Investment activity in the BCI sector has surged, with over 1,000 disclosed transactions and nearly 400 companies receiving funding, totaling close to $10 billion. The global BCI market has grown from $1.2 billion in 2019 to nearly $2 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 13% [12][30].

Group 1: Export Growth Outlook - The α factors are increasingly influencing China's export growth, with expectations of a 1-3% growth in 2026 despite external demand factors[1] - The report emphasizes the low risk of a decline in α factors, while β factors remain resilient[1] Group 2: Key α Factors - Tariff changes, order overdraw, re-export regulations, and exchange rate fluctuations are critical α factors affecting exports[1] - The impact of order overdraw is gradually being digested, with optimistic views suggesting limited further risks[1] - Re-export regulations primarily affect low-value or non-processed "label re-export" products, with an estimated 1.3% decline in total exports if a 40% tariff is imposed[1] - The probability of significant tariff increases is low, as retaliatory tariffs are limited and global tariff negotiations are mostly settled[1] - The appreciation of the local currency may reduce export price increments, but the overall export volume is expected to remain stable[1] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The IMF predicts a recovery in global GDP growth in 2026 compared to 2025, which supports the expectation that global trade growth will at least maintain 2025 levels[1] - The report highlights that the influence of global demand on China's export growth is diminishing, with a decoupling from traditional indicators like global PMI[1] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include increased compliance scrutiny at regional ports and a general rise in tariffs across key global industries[1]