国泰海通宏观研究团队 刘姜枫 S0880525070019 梁中华 S0880525040019 本报告作者： · 概要 · α因素对于中国出口增速的影响日益增强。因此本文在外需因素以外，着重展望了关税变化、订单透支、转口监管、汇率变化等α因素对出口的 影响。我们认为，2026年α因素回落的风险较低，β因素的韧性仍存，全年仍有望实现1-3%的增速表现。 近年来β因素越来越难以解释中国出口，全球地缘摩擦和科技转型的背景下，应更加重视α因素的影响。 全球PMI与中国出口增速近十年同向波 动、波幅一致的相关性在2023年以来被打破，究其原因是在①中国内部转型过程中，产业结构调整、内外价格分化，和②全球经贸摩擦加剧、地 缘关系重构两个因素。 理解α因素的关键变化，重点在于理解新格局与新产业： ✔ 新贸易格局的形成，缘于两次关税冲击影响了贸易流向，究其根本是百年未有之大变局下地缘关系的重构在中国出口国别上的表现。最显著 的变化是中美贸易"藕断丝连"。 ✔ 新产业出口的表现，缘于中国内部的经济转型、产业升级、内外价差在中国出口产品层面的表现。 2026年中国出口主要的α因素展望： ①出口订单透支：已经逐渐消化 。7-8月 ...

Macro Research - The report emphasizes the increasing impact of alpha factors on China's export growth, highlighting the importance of tariff changes, order overdrafts, re-export regulations, and exchange rate fluctuations in addition to external demand factors. It is projected that exports will achieve a growth rate of 1-3% in 2026, with low risk of a decline in alpha factors [2][4][18]. Real Estate Research - The real estate sector remains in a downward trend as of September, with a significant decline in front-end investments, indicating continued pressure on prices. The gap between new and second-hand housing prices is widening, suggesting diminishing marginal benefits from new projects [2][7][8]. - In the first nine months, real estate investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year, and even with a potential increase in the last quarter, a double-digit decline is expected for the year. The focus will be on how to mitigate this decline, with urban renewal and new technology infrastructure seen as potential areas for support [7][8]. Biomedicine Research - The brain-computer interface (BCI) industry is anticipated to experience significant development opportunities driven by technological breakthroughs, policy support, and capital investment. The market outlook for BCI in healthcare and consumer sectors is promising [2][10][11]. - Domestic policies are actively promoting the development of the BCI industry, with various government departments issuing supportive measures since the 13th Five-Year Plan. This includes guidelines for enhancing innovation capabilities and establishing a reliable industry system by 2030 [11][30]. - Investment activity in the BCI sector has surged, with over 1,000 disclosed transactions and nearly 400 companies receiving funding, totaling close to $10 billion. The global BCI market has grown from $1.2 billion in 2019 to nearly $2 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 13% [12][30].

α因素对于中国出口增速的影响日益增强。因此本文在外需因素以外，着重展望了关 税变化、订单透支、转口监管、汇率变化等α因素对出口的影响。我们认为，2026 年 α因素回落的风险较低，β因素的韧性仍存，全年仍有望实现 1-3%的增速表现。 投资要点： 2026 年中国出口主要的α因素展望： | | | | 从β到α | [Table_Authors] | 刘姜枫(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | |  ——2026 年中国出口形势展望 | | 021-38031032 | | | | liujiangfeng@gtht.com | | 本报告导读： | 登记编号 | S0880525070019 | | α因素对于中国出口增速的影响日益增强。因此本文在外需因素以外，着重展望了关 税变化、订单透支、转口监管、汇率变化等α因素对出口的影响。我们认为，2026 年 | | 梁中华(分析师) | | α因素回落的风险较低，β因素的韧性仍存，全年仍有望实现 1-3%的增速表现。 | | 021-23219820 | | 投资要点： | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | | 登记 ...